Rams position analysis: Special teams feature a great punter in Johnny Hekker, shaky kicker in Greg Zuerlein
By RYAN KARTJE / STAFF WRITER
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/zuerlein-704779-season-nfl.html
With five minutes left in overtime of a forgettable season’s final game, Greg Zuerlein lined up for a potentially game-winning 48-yard field goal. A chance to end the NFL’s longest stretch of losing seasons rested on his right foot.
In years past, this might have been an ideal scenario for the Rams and their kicker. Zuerlein, after all, had built a reputation – and cadre of nicknames – on the merits of his powerful leg. As a senior at Missouri Western State, he hit nine consecutive attempts from 50-plus yards. That precise power convinced St. Louis to make him the first kicker drafted from a Division II school in nearly a decade, and over his four NFL seasons leading up to this final kick, Zuerlein hit 38 more from 40-plus yards – 16 of which came from 50 or further.
Distance, you see, has never been a problem for a man affectionately known as “Legatron.” But nearing the end of the worst season of his career, actually sticking those kicks through the uprights proved far more difficult than ever before.
After missing just five from 40-plus over the past two seasons combined, Zuerlein already had missed eight field goals from that range in 2015. His 67-percent success rate on field goals ranked last in the NFL among qualifying kickers, and it wasn’t close. Of kickers who attempted more than 15 field goals last season, only Zuerlein and Atlanta’s Matt Bryant fell short of 80 percent. Considering Bryant’s success rate was a full 11 percent higher than his Rams counterpart, Zuerlein truly stood alone in field goal futility.
Now, as he lined up for a game-winner, there was a chance for some semblance of redemption. But just as the ball snapped, a 49ers defender whipped around the edge, and the final attempt of what could be Zuerlein’s last season as a Ram was blocked. Five plays later, the 49ers kicked their own game-winner.
"Any time you don't go up and convert and do your job, you're not going to be happy about it," Zuerlein said after the loss. It was a feeling to which Rams fans could relate.
When the NFL decided to move back extra points to the 15-yard line before last season, an increase in kicker-related concerns was expected. But even as the move initiated a cascade of media panic – and, eventually, more missed PATs than in any season since 1977 – the reality is that NFL kickers have never been better. League-wide, kickers made 84.5 percent of non-extra-point attempts in 2015 – the second-best rate in NFL history.
Which makes Zuerlein’s woebegone season all the more worrisome, as the Rams weigh whether or not to re-sign him this offseason.
From 2010 to 2015, only one qualifying kicker finished with a worse single-season success rate – Packers kicker Mason Crosby, who hit only 64 percent in 2012 and was nearly cut after the season. In 2009, four kickers finished with a lower field goal percentage – Houston’s Kris Brown, Jacksonville’s Josh Scobee, Dallas’ Nick Folk and Atlanta’s Jason Elam. Brown was cut after the season. Folk was waived before it ended. Elam retired. Only Scobee stuck around.
Zuerlein’s 2015 struggles were often attributed to distance, and to some extent, this is a reasonable excuse. Only Blair Walsh and Justin Tucker have attempted more from 50-plus over the past two seasons than Zuerlein. Plus, the average successful kick for Tucker (36.7) and Walsh (37.2) last season covered less distance than Zuerlein, who averaged 38.75 yards per made field goal.
But as kickers steadily improve, excuses for poor performance – even from distance – have diminished. Last season, kickers made 65 percent of their attempts from 50-plus yards. Zuerlein barely surpassed that success rate overall.
“Greg has been asked to do a lot of things, kick a lot of long field goals,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. “Obviously, his numbers aren’t what we’d hoped they would be. We have confidence in him. But in all likelihood, there will be some competition in camp next year.”
Zuerlein might not make it that far. Even as the majority of kickers have steadily improved, Zuerlein owns the worst career field goal percentage in the NFL among active kickers. His 2015 season is the worst from a Rams kicker since the team’s debut season in St. Louis (1995).
A new locale might well mean a new kicker in 2016.
“We have really good special teams, typically,” Fisher said. “Greg just had a rough year.”
In fact, the other strong-legged specialist on the Rams’ roster wasn’t just good. He had one of the best punting seasons in NFL history.
Diagnosing a punter’s value can be an inexact science, but after a second straight All-Pro season, Rams punter Johnny Hekker has made it abundantly clear he’s already among the best the NFL has ever seen at the position. Hekker is the first punter since the NFL began recording punt stats more thoroughly in 1977 to lead the league in gross punting average (47.9), net punting average (43.7), and inside-the-20 punts (41).
According to statistical models from FiveThirtyEight.com, Hekker contributed a mind-blowing 271 extra yards relative to the average expectation of a baseline NFL punter, making him one of the most important field-position weapons in the NFL. His contributions were so significant in 2015 that FiveThirtyEight named Hekker the second-most valuable punter or kicker in the league, behind only Patriots All-Pro kicker Stephen Gostkowski.
Sixty-eight spots below Hekker on FiveThirtyEight’s list, the other half of the Rams’ kicking duo toiled near the bottom of the league’s specialists. Among kickers, only Kyle Brindza, a Bucs specialist cut at midseason, ranked below him.
RAMS SPECIALISTS
2015 starters: PK Greg Zuerlein (14 games), P Johnny Hekker, KR Benny Cunningham, PR Tavon Austin, LS Jake McQuaide
Contract status: Zuerlein is an unrestricted free agent and might not be re-signed, even after his 2015 salary was only $723,307. Cunningham is also an unrestricted free agent and could have a similarly uncertain future in Los Angeles. Hekker is under contract through the 2020 season, while Austin's contract comes up next offseason.
Biggest strength: Hekker is unquestionably the NFL's top punter, coming off of one of the most impressive punting seasons in NFL history. In 2015, he led the league in gross punt yards, net punt yards, and punts inside the 20. Cunningham was also one of the league's better weapons on kickoffs, averaging 28.6 yards per return.
Biggest weakness: Zuerlein has plenty of nicknames that point to his kicking power – "Greg the Leg" or "Legatron" among them – but when it comes to actually knocking those powerful kicks through the uprights, he has struggled to live up to the hype. Last season, Zuerlein made just two-thirds of his attempts, and for his career, he owns the worst field goal percentage among active NFL kickers. The Rams might be better off moving on from "Legatron."
Help in the draft: PK Roberto Aguayo (Florida State), PK Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA), PK Marshall Morgan (Georgia)
By the numbers: While the Rams ranked dead last in the NFL in field goal percentage, the punt team, led by Hekker's historic season, had a net average per punt (43.7) nearly a full yard higher than the next-best NFL team. The Rams might have had better numbers in the punt game, if they hadn't committed a whopping 29 penalties on special teams – more than any other NFL team.
