How does one define QB risk, really?

[Rams43]

Yeah, there is risk in this blockbuster trade up for a rookie QB.

Could make or break a career, cost a HC or GM their jobs, even.

But other teams also are facing tough and risky options, too.

How about Houston paying Osweiler $72 million for 4 years? Gulp...

What if CLE decides to put all their eggs in the RG3 basket? Double gulp.

Will the Niners trade up to #2 for the QB that the Rams least prefer? Or do they put their faith in some combination of Kaep (who said he didn't want to be there) or the lightly regarded Gabbert?

How long can the Cowboys get away with counting on the aging and injury prone Romo?

Same with the Saints and Brees.

Do the Jets decide to roll with Fitz, or do they take a QB at #20?

Do the Eagles try to trade up to #2 themselves to take Ram leftovers, or do they prefer sticking with the Bradford/Daniel combo?

And on and on...

My point? There's all kinds of risk that's being assumed at the all important QB position all around the league.

S&F have picked their poison and decided to go into this season with their six guns blazing.

Gotta admire that, don't you think?

 

[-X-]

You can't quantify the risk. Anything could happen to set this team back on the heels of this trade, or propel them into consistent contention. There are, however, ways to mitigate risk. And that's putting the QB in a position to succeed. We have the defense, we have the run game, and we pretty much have the O-line. The only thing missing is that one go-to receiver (not even saying #1 anymore). Someone who can be counted on in a number of different situations, and someone who can bail out a QB when things break down. We don't have that guy (yet).

 

[Austin]

Yeah, I agree with this completely. In the situation we're in, with the roster we've accumulated--and it's not perfect by any means, but there's a lot there, and a lot of upside (although I hate our TE situation, admittedly)--the riskiest thing we could do is pin our hopes to guys like Keenum and Mannion. Guys who can't realistically be projected to be great quarterback, or more than back-up level. Hell, even Paxton Lynch, Connor Cook are huge risks, if the Rams were to stay at 15 or move up to 10 or so for Lynch.

What's more, whoever you take with these premium picks--QBs. WRs, OTs, DEs and DTs, etc.--all of these guys have a strong chance to bust for one reason or another. I get that having more picks increases the chance we'll find a gem, but there's also the chance we don't, and we spend the same amount of capital over a two year span for guys that are just solid... and we're in the same situation, but with contract issues on guys like Gurley, Donald, Quinn.

All the heat we've drawn from other fanbases and from our own... I get it, everybody wants to be the smartest guy in the room, and say they said it first, the Rams are making a huge mistake... But it's safe. It's safe to say that about any trade, or move, signing or pick. It's a lot riskier to say this will work out. This will transform them. People hate to see someone predict success, and hate to predict it themselves (which seems like an interesting/depressing facet of social psychology, perhaps particularly amplified by forum-environments and the internet). So of course there are people up in arms about this, and people smirking and snarking and taking shots.

But at the end of the day, what is the smarter, safer move for a team that wants to win championships? Going into Season after season with only backups on the roster, and hoping a QB or a transcendent season from a mediocre player falls into your lap? Or swinging for the fences on a guy that has, at worst, a 50-50 chance of being special? I think it's #2. Easily.

Like Rams43 is saying, quarterbacks are always risks: injury risks, developmental risks, cap-risks. But they are risks teams have to take, if they want a chance at contending seriously. The greatest risk of all is to never take chances.

 

[Ram Pat]

There is always risk and circumstances. Being without a franchise qb for most of franchise history, I am soo glad they made the move. I was disappointed when we beat NO and lost out on Luck, passed on Bortles, etc. Gotta go for it, NEED a qb to win!

 

[IowaRam]

Not having to pay a rookie QB $78 Million Dollars is a good start

 

[Yamahopper]

Teams make their pick and get on with it.
If it works out great the team is set for years.
If not reload and try again.
No guarantees in football.

 

[BonifayRam]

This is how I define Risk....

Looking at the 2017 Ram draft selections as it stands now is . Rams presently will not have a selection until Day Three. The loss of JJ & Rod might bring us a very late 3rd rd'er compensatory selection along with a late 4th compensatory selection. So guessing right now our top picks will be a late 3rd & three 4th rd'ers.

Snead's job if he is still here will be his most difficult than ever before. But its of his own makings. If the Rams get hit hard in UFA'cy with departures of possibly eight starters (four of which are past #1 draft picks) CB Trumaine Johnson, NT Michael Brockers, WR Kenny Britt, MLB Alec Ogletree, SS TJ McDonald, SSLB Akeem Ayers, OLG Garrett Reynolds & WR Tavon Austin. Throw in the big question marks with starters Rob Quinn & EJ Gaines all this glorious indulging in pleasure ongoing in Ram forums NOW, stands a very good chance to come to terms of this past risky trade & will have to learn to sing the Blues instead of be sing a far different song around here but for now we can dance & sing. I like the way you work it.............

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KL9mRus19o

 

[Merlin]

The ONLY risk with Wentz is his love of running like an effin RB. He can't afford to do that, and the Rams cannot afford him to risk injury unnecessarily. That is going to be an important coaching element when they get him in here.

Only risk I see with Goff is his Bradford-like build. It doesn't mean he's gonna get injured, but IMO both these QBs are so good as prospects that injury is their biggest risk. Outside of that, I think both are going to be very good to great in the NFL.

 

[Mackeyser]

You can't quantify the risk. Anything could happen to set this team back on the heels of this trade, or propel them into consistent contention. There are, however, ways to mitigate risk. And that's putting the QB in a position to succeed. We have the defense, we have the run game, and we pretty much have the O-line. The only thing missing is that one go-to receiver (not even saying #1 anymore). Someone who can be counted on in a number of different situations, and someone who can bail out a QB when things break down. We don't have that guy (yet).

Actually, we may...

I think Kenny Britt just may be able to fill those shoes for a QB who can actually get him the ball.