Great article on talent MIS-Evaluation!!!

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Joined
Sep 14, 2011
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This is how talent gets overlooked...
once again human interference!! lol
Talent evaluation an Art not a Science....and there's so much psychology involved.


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Talent misevaluation: Why do players slip through the cracks?
By Michael Lombardi NFL Network
Published: Feb. 17, 2012 at 01:01 p.m.

Have you been watching basketball since football season ended? (Yes, we are in the dark ages of sports right now, before basketball really heats up. Don't worry, though, NFL Network coverage of the NFL Scouting Combine starts on Wednesday.) Have you been bitten by the "Linsanity" rage going on throughout the world? I have, in part because it appeals to my love of NBA hoops, but even more so because it appeals to my first love: player personnel.

Like most fans, when an unknown basketball player like Jeremy Lin emerges as a star, I immediately ask the question: How does a talent like this not get drafted? When I first saw Lin play, I was in awe and had to learn everything about him because I wanted to know how my favorite team (the 76ers) did not find this talent. Thank God for Google.

Great players slip through the cracks in the draft process of every sport, including pro football. For example, how does Texans star runner Arian Foster not get drafted? How does he get waived and no team places a waiver claim for him? How does Steelers backer James Harrison go undrafted and get cut several times? How does a quarterback-starved league let Tony Romo go undrafted? These questions have always bothered me, in and out of the league.

The easy answer is a misevaluation of talent. And often, misevaluation is the cause, as it does require a talent to correctly evaluate talent. But having been involved with football for most of my life, I understand there are several ways to make personnel mistakes.

The most common one is what I call "the agenda." The agenda pops up when a player is drafted highly, or when a major decision-maker falls in love with a particular player, thus causing an unfair evaluation for every other player at his position.

When a team drafts a player in the early rounds, there is little chance for another player at the position to outshine him -- the agenda is for the highly drafted player to be a star. No matter how talented an undrafted or free-agent player might actually be, he's never allowed to win a job because it would be an indictment on the team's drafting process. The decision-makers want to protect their draft picks, thus eliminating the purity of the evaluation process. The agenda is a pre-determined evaluation, regardless of what that the player might provide in pure production or work ethic. In essence, the agenda violates the first rule of scouting: Never begin with the end in mind.

Another culprit in misreading talent is called "sponsorship." Normally a player enters an organization because someone -- a scout or a coach -- likes his talent. But often a player is just signed to fill out the depth chart. When a player comes in to fill a spot, he does not get a fair evaluation because there is no one supporting his cause, or sponsoring him. With no sponsorship, the player receives minimal practice and game repetitions; therefore, he is unable to show his talent. It's a sad truth: A player can come into an organization and never get a fair opportunity to showcase his skills because no one is supporting his cause.

Sometimes teams cannot believe their good fortune -- they don't trust their own evaluation of a player because he was originally undrafted or cut several times by other teams. This is called a "pedigree mistake." Sometimes evaluators, coaches or scouts just can't accept what their eyes tell them about a player, because someone else waived him. Questions arise: How can this player be any good if two teams already cut him? What is really wrong with this player? Teams will let a player's past transaction sheet determine their evaluation, even if the player displays talent.

Finally, the "Everyone is the GM" mistake will allow good players to pass through organizations. This happens when a position coach is given the authority to ultimately decide which players at his position actually make the team. Position coaches always want to keep the smartest player, the more developed player, the player that can help them right now -- rather than the player with the most raw talent, someone who might be ready in time. In reality, if an organization allows an assistant coach to be the GM of his position, it's hard to blame him for wanting instant help. There has to be someone -- either a personnel official or the head coach -- who is thinking long term, thinking on a broader scale to avoid this common mistake.

Players will continue to slip through the cracks as long as organizations continue to allow these four mistakes to occur. The best organizations treat each player the same and make each player earn his spot -- nothing is automatic. Mistakes are part of the sports business, but self-inflicted mistakes can be avoided if teams stay open-minded at all times.

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Angry Ram

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Awesome article. I'm gonna try to respond w/o overanalyzing.

There's other things, too. Colleges played at. Foster went to Tennessee, not exactly a powerhouse these days. Or someone from Montana (yes I'm trying to bait MontanaRamsFan here) or Kent State (Harrison).

Some of these guys just need a chance, like Harrison/Foster. If Ben Taint didn't get injured (2nd round pick) in 2010, Foster would still be on a practice squad somewhere. The Steelers coached Harrison up and found a role for him, developed him. Coaches/GMs also need to be more patient to develop these guys. The Patriots/Steelers do this so well. And I thought the Rams were starting to get there w/ Spags and Devaney (Amendola, Stewart, Gordy, etc). Jeremy Lin just need a chance. Of course these guys aren't gonna get to play if there are stars like Melo or Stoudmire are in front of him, but when they get injured...you never know.

Actually, come to think of it, overanalyzing is probably a big reason why these guys go undrafted in the 1st place. Maybe scouts/GMs nitpick so much they find so many little things wrong, they pass him even though there are many good qualities. Senior season performance, 1 flaw (pass blocking in the case of Foster), or anything minuscle. That's why there are coaches to coach them up.
 

Memento

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Angry Ram said:
Awesome article. I'm gonna try to respond w/o overanalyzing.

There's other things, too. Colleges played at. Foster went to Tennessee, not exactly a powerhouse these days. Or someone from Montana (yes I'm trying to bait MontanaRamsFan here) or Kent State (Harrison).

Marc Mariani. He's a former wide receiver for the Montana Grizzlies who is now one of the best kick/punt returners in the NFL (Titans). He was a seventh round pick in 2010, I believe. He's cat-quick and really elusive in the open field, but experts knocked his speed and said that he was little more than a fourth wideout.

I agree with everything that's been posted, by the way.
 

JdashSTL

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Isnt there also too much stock put into the combine? As a fan, I dont mind finding out who has the best bench press or who has the best 40 time. Look at a player like Quinton Coples, didnt have a good Senior year, and he made the most out of his opportunities at the Senior Bowl, and should continue to make himself look good. The players that need these events the most are the ones who didnt have very good seasons, and have questions about their speed.
 

Warner4Prez

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I've always had a sort of conspiracy theorist outlook at the draft, especially the NFL draft. It's a huge business for more than just the league and the agents. Tons of websites and magazines make hella money on mock drafting and scouting. I've always felt there has to be someone feeding the hype and putting money behind their players. Otherwise there is just no logic for the number of misses or mid to late round guys that outshine first round picks.
 

JdashSTL

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Warner4Prez said:
I've always had a sort of conspiracy theorist outlook at the draft, especially the NFL draft. It's a huge business for more than just the league and the agents. Tons of websites and magazines make hella money on mock drafting and scouting. I've always felt there has to be someone feeding the hype and putting money behind their players. Otherwise there is just no logic for the number of misses or mid to late round guys that outshine first round picks.

That makes some sense. I never figured out how players could gain so much hype during the offseason leading up to the draft. I dont recall 1 person saying Blaine Gabbert was a legit 1st round QB during his final season at Mizzou, after the season ends, after Luck says hes going back to Stanford, Gabbert is being mocked to the Carolina Panthers. I always thought the main purpose of the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Pro Days was to find out what system players could play in (senior bowl is a big day for 4-3 DEs and 3-4 OLBs), how they did in interviews, and medical checks.
 

Angry Ram

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Memento said:
Angry Ram said:
Awesome article. I'm gonna try to respond w/o overanalyzing.

There's other things, too. Colleges played at. Foster went to Tennessee, not exactly a powerhouse these days. Or someone from Montana (yes I'm trying to bait MontanaRamsFan here) or Kent State (Harrison).

Marc Mariani. He's a former wide receiver for the Montana Grizzlies who is now one of the best kick/punt returners in the NFL (Titans). He was a seventh round pick in 2010, I believe. He's cat-quick and really elusive in the open field, but experts knocked his speed and said that he was little more than a fourth wideout.

I agree with everything that's been posted, by the way.

See I didn't even know about that.

But I sure as hell know about Rey Mauluga...USC beast!!
 

bluecoconuts

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Angry Ram said:
Memento said:
Angry Ram said:
Awesome article. I'm gonna try to respond w/o overanalyzing.

There's other things, too. Colleges played at. Foster went to Tennessee, not exactly a powerhouse these days. Or someone from Montana (yes I'm trying to bait MontanaRamsFan here) or Kent State (Harrison).

Marc Mariani. He's a former wide receiver for the Montana Grizzlies who is now one of the best kick/punt returners in the NFL (Titans). He was a seventh round pick in 2010, I believe. He's cat-quick and really elusive in the open field, but experts knocked his speed and said that he was little more than a fourth wideout.

I agree with everything that's been posted, by the way.

See I didn't even know about that.

But I sure as hell know about Rey Mauluga...USC beast!!

I like USC, but I'd never draft a LB from there. They juice. I played against Clay Mathews in high school, he was a short skinny little guy who couldnt be a starter even with his dad as the DC.... Then suddenly he walks on the USC field to try out 3 inches taller and 70 pounds more after a few months? BS......
 

superfan24

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bluecoconuts said:
Angry Ram said:
Memento said:
Angry Ram said:
Awesome article. I'm gonna try to respond w/o overanalyzing.

There's other things, too. Colleges played at. Foster went to Tennessee, not exactly a powerhouse these days. Or someone from Montana (yes I'm trying to bait MontanaRamsFan here) or Kent State (Harrison).

Marc Mariani. He's a former wide receiver for the Montana Grizzlies who is now one of the best kick/punt returners in the NFL (Titans). He was a seventh round pick in 2010, I believe. He's cat-quick and really elusive in the open field, but experts knocked his speed and said that he was little more than a fourth wideout.

I agree with everything that's been posted, by the way.

See I didn't even know about that.

But I sure as hell know about Rey Mauluga...USC beast!!

I like USC, but I'd never draft a LB from there. They juice. I played against Clay Mathews in high school, he was a short skinny little guy who couldnt be a starter even with his dad as the DC.... Then suddenly he walks on the USC field to try out 3 inches taller and 70 pounds more after a few months? BS......

They are idrty over there for sure, just ask 503 :cool:
Very happy we picked JL over Maulaluga as I remember BD getting killed for that.
 

Stranger

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bluecoconuts said:
Angry Ram said:
Memento said:
Angry Ram said:
Awesome article. I'm gonna try to respond w/o overanalyzing.

There's other things, too. Colleges played at. Foster went to Tennessee, not exactly a powerhouse these days. Or someone from Montana (yes I'm trying to bait MontanaRamsFan here) or Kent State (Harrison).

Marc Mariani. He's a former wide receiver for the Montana Grizzlies who is now one of the best kick/punt returners in the NFL (Titans). He was a seventh round pick in 2010, I believe. He's cat-quick and really elusive in the open field, but experts knocked his speed and said that he was little more than a fourth wideout.

I agree with everything that's been posted, by the way.

See I didn't even know about that.

But I sure as hell know about Rey Mauluga...USC beast!!

I like USC, but I'd never draft a LB from there. They juice. I played against Clay Mathews in high school, he was a short skinny little guy who couldnt be a starter even with his dad as the DC.... Then suddenly he walks on the USC field to try out 3 inches taller and 70 pounds more after a few months? BS......

Wikipedia says he was a "late bloomer"..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clay_Matthews_III

"Matthews was born in the Los Angeles district of Northridge to parents Clay and Leslie Matthews. He attended Agoura High School in Agoura Hills, California. Physically, Matthews was a late bloomer. His father was the team's defensive coordinator, but declined to start his son because he was physically undersized. Matthews began developing physically in his senior season, but only garnered interest from Division I FCS schools and local community colleges.[1] He has described his own recruiting status out of high school as "not applicable."[2] Like his father and uncle, Matthews opted to attend the University of Southern California with hopes of becoming a walk-on for the Trojans football team."