- Joined
- Jan 23, 2014
- Messages
- 285
- Name
- sdakotaram
Here is the progression of which I experienced the STL-DEN game week…
Heading into the game, I felt it was an easy choice. You have Denver/Peyton going indoors against a Rams team that was switching QBs, again, and had allowed 30 or more points in games in six of their nine games played heading into Week 11. Denver under Peyton Manning has never lost to a team with a losing record. They tend to obliterate, and humiliate weaker foes. Laying 9.5 points would be easy against the Rams. So I placed the minor bet.
On Sunday, I watch the 1pm games all at the same time….so it’s hard to focus on just one, but I do the best I can. I wasn’t super-excited about watching this game…why would I be? Boring déjà vu of Denver stomping another hapless foe. Every time I peaked in on this game, Peyton was missing short 3rd-down conversions, but I was not worried because I was sure they’d press down on the gas soon enough. Down to the very end, as I’d glance at the game, STL just kept holding the lead. Into the 4th-quarter, I could do the math…no way Denver would cover. I was sure they’d win it still, but no way would they cover…but with Peyton, you never know.
My mind had already decided what it was watching days prior. I was watching the Denver Broncos, arguably the best team in football (in my mind), take on the disappointing/losing record St. Louis Rams. There was no way the Rams would win. When they did win, I assumed it was one of those fluky wins…although I couldn’t recall a fluky moment glancing back and forth at it from 1-4pm ET. I was sure I missed something as to why this oddity happened…probably all the Denver injuries.
I re-watched the game for scouting purposes. I realized what I missed.
Two things, really.
(1) The Denver Broncos are the old Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz from back in the day…more on this at the very end of this piece. (2) The St. Louis Rams are one of the ten best teams in the NFL right now. Emphasis on ‘now’…it’s a late developing situation. The possibility was there all along. We all saw it (fan and analyst) coming into the season…it’s coming to fruition now.
I’m not saying the Rams will run the table, but they might. I won’t commit to it because I don’t trust Jeff Fisher…a great defensive mind, and an odd offensive strategist. He’s like a more polite Rex Ryan. His teams are always formidable, always under-performing (he’s had two winning seasons in his last nine seasons prior to 2014), occasionally popping up to beat good teams when you least expect it, always having a letdown when just when you start getting excited by his team, always rock solid on defense, and always maddening on offense.
Austin Davis over Shaun Hill was a massive mistake. The Daryl Richardson era was offensive to my football scouting sensibilities. The overuse of Tre Mason right now is bad strategy. The revolving door of under-performing WRs has been frustrating.
It all doesn’t matter now.
Fisher may have just spun the Rubik’s Cube in the direction finally, even if by accident, and figured out a winner…a top-10 NFL team. If he gets whacked at San Diego this week as a follow-up to Denver, he should be fired. Everything you want to know about Jeff Fisher + Rams-talent is going to occur this week. A win this week vs. San Diego, and the Rams may make the playoffs…I kid you not. Lose this week, and it’s over. San Diego has been in a death spiral for weeks…the Rams should deliver a knockout blow Sunday…even going on the road. However, these are the types of games Jeff Fisher loses…and we’ll all chalk it up to ‘no QB’, or ‘young team’ or whatever. If the Rams beat San Diego this week, and do so convincingly…there will be a major shift in the NFL hierarchy for both teams.
It will also mean a massive shift in Fantasy Football for Rams-related items. This is the week to be ahead of that curve, before the Rams are the story of the NFL heading into Week 13. OR I get you all excited, and we get the rug pulled out from us at San Diego, and complain about how awful Jeff Fisher is. It’s not unreasonable to pass on everything I’m about to write because what’s hot one week tends to collapse the following…especially with the emerging teams without a top QB, AND Jeff Fisher usually fumbles the ball in these situations.
Sometimes he doesn’t. He’s a solid coach, especially on good on defense. This is a defensive-led renaissance. This is like ARI-SEA-SF, his division mates…plausible offenses that rely on their defense. The Rams, at full strength, have the best defense in the NFC West…and that statement may be true right now, only the masses don’t ‘feel it’ yet. I think it is coming. Actually, I think it’s here.
This was not a lucky win by the Rams. This was Seattle v. Denver in the Super Bowl bad for Peyton…a let me walk right up to your face and punch you as hard as I can, and you will live in fear of me forever, and you will do nothing about it type of beating. The re-watch of this was stunning how much better the Rams were than Denver…and you do get that this never happens to Denver/Peyton? They never lose to joke teams.
The Rams are no joke…and the whole world will be talking about them with a win this week.
If they lose…I’ll climb back in my hole for six more weeks of winter.
So take this analysis of FF-action with whatever salt grains you’d like…
-- I am going ‘all-in’ on the St. Louis Rams DST for the ROS, preferably as a DST2 hold until next week.
In their first seven games of 2014, the Rams went 2-5 while allowing 26 or more points in six of those contests. The only team they ‘held’ was Tampa Bay in Week 2 (17 points allowed). The Rams were a preseason top 5-10 Fantasy DST for many, and quickly blew up in all our faces right out of the chute.
Here’s the last three weeks…
Week 9: Went to San Francisco and won 13-10. The 49ers went 3 for 12 on 3rd-downs, and the Rams stuffed Colin Kaepernick on the goal line at the end of the game. Even if they didn’t…it would have only 17 points allowed. Frank Gore bottled up, and Kaepernick held mediocre…after he had rocked them a few weeks prior.
Oh, and they sacked Kaepernick eight times.
Week 10: Went to Arizona, led 14-10 at the half. Gave up a late bomb to John Brown, and then allowed two quick defensive scores…and lost 31-14. Without the two D-TDs…they hold ARI to 17 points as well. Arizona was 6 for 15 on 3rd-downs. Andre Ellington carried the ball for 1.3 yards per carry on 18 totes. They stymied Carson Palmer…and sacked him three times…and probably would have gotten 1-2x more sacks if he stayed in.
Week 11: They destroyed Peyton Manning…made him look foolish. Denver scored seven points total…and that was on a busted coverage play to allow Emmanuel Sanders to get wide-open for a long TD.
The last time Peyton Manning was held to seven or fewer points in the regular-season: 2009 in a snowstorm at Buffalo. The last time before that…2001…13 years ago at Miami. Peyton posted eight points in the Super Bowl. The 4-6 St. Louis Rams just did it to him again…in a dome.
Denver went 4 for 12 on 3rd-downs vs. STL…three weeks in-a-row where the Rams held opponents to 40% or less on conversions…to three playoff teams.
What has changed? A couple of things: Aaron Donald (3 tackles, 1 sack) is ‘special’. As Donald is now playing heavier snaps, Robert Quinn (3 PDs, 1 QB hit) has gone from M.I.A. back to menacing again. #1 CB Janoris Jenkins (4 tackles) missed a few games…he is back the last two weeks. The Rams traded for Mark Barron (1 tackle). CB/S Trumaine Johnson (2 tackles, 2 PD, 1 INT) is back the past three weeks. Rookie CB E.J. Gaines (8 tackles, 2 PD) is playing better and better. Chris Long is practicing this week for the first time since he went on IR early in the season.
The DST world is changing in St. Louis.
There’s more good FF-news…
Here’s the upcoming schedule of QBs to face from Week 12 to Week 16: Rivers (who is fading), Carr, RG3, Stanton, Eli. All favorable matchups with slight concern on the road vs. Philip Rivers. Again, the Rams just humiliated Peyton Manning.
If the Rams stomp the Chargers this week, then everyone in FF will look at the upcoming schedule and see it too. The Rams will be beyond motivated for Weeks 13-16. The time to get ahead of it is now. If the Rams lose this week…it’s still good, but not as good because we don’t know where their heads will be at as the lost season trudges on.
-- Another advantage for the Rams-DST, and the team in general: Shaun Hill (20-29 for 220 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is a really capable, underrated QB.
Honestly, if you did not have preconceived notions/history of experience on your side, and you watched this game as an empty slate, and I told you one of these QBs is an all-time great, and the other is a backup—you would identify Hill as the star, and Peyton as the jittery hack.
I’ve seen Hill look really good before…he was terrific at times for Detroit as a fill-in starter in 2010. Did you know Hill has never had an NFL season with more picks than TD passes? He has 42 TD/24 INT in his career through last Sunday. He is not a hack…he’s just been overlooked. In this game, he was so superior in decision-making and arm velocity it was jarring. Peyton looked like my dog when he hears a loud noise…ears down, jumpy, sullen. The last time I saw Peyton this out of sorts in a game was every time he plays a great team like Seattle or New England the past couple years.
Shaun Hill is a decent NFL QB. Better than everyone gives him credit for. Why Jeff Fisher didn’t go back to Hill sooner with this team is beyond me. Fisher killed himself, offensively, in 2012 jerking around with Daryl Richardson over Steven Jackson too much…now this. He just doesn’t appear to have an ‘eye for it’ on offense. He’s not alone…don’t get me started.
-- If you buy my Shaun Hill premise, then buckle up because Kenny Britt (4 rec. for 128 yards and 1 TD on 7 targets) may be about to launch to Fantasy WR1 status.
It’s not just the numbers posted; it was what didn’t post. Early in the Denver game, Hill threw a bullet deep over the middle to Britt, who was open by 3-5+ yards streaking past all the DBs. They connected for a 33-yard strike, but Britt had to stop for a moment to grab the ball, then tripped trying to re-start. It could have been a 73-yard TD.
Hill narrowly missed Britt a few more times, not in a bad way…in an Aqib Talib lock down way. There are no lock down corners for Britt-Hill ahead. Hill was definitely seeing Britt as his guy…but he was smart enough not to push it when Talib locked down and Denver doubled over the top. Britt may go nuts over the next weeks…I mean that as in FF-production, but it may be as a human off the field. You make the call. I think Britt is getting overlooked…or disbelieved to some degree, and rightfully so. This game says something awesome might occur ahead with Hill-Britt.
Heading into the game, I felt it was an easy choice. You have Denver/Peyton going indoors against a Rams team that was switching QBs, again, and had allowed 30 or more points in games in six of their nine games played heading into Week 11. Denver under Peyton Manning has never lost to a team with a losing record. They tend to obliterate, and humiliate weaker foes. Laying 9.5 points would be easy against the Rams. So I placed the minor bet.
On Sunday, I watch the 1pm games all at the same time….so it’s hard to focus on just one, but I do the best I can. I wasn’t super-excited about watching this game…why would I be? Boring déjà vu of Denver stomping another hapless foe. Every time I peaked in on this game, Peyton was missing short 3rd-down conversions, but I was not worried because I was sure they’d press down on the gas soon enough. Down to the very end, as I’d glance at the game, STL just kept holding the lead. Into the 4th-quarter, I could do the math…no way Denver would cover. I was sure they’d win it still, but no way would they cover…but with Peyton, you never know.
My mind had already decided what it was watching days prior. I was watching the Denver Broncos, arguably the best team in football (in my mind), take on the disappointing/losing record St. Louis Rams. There was no way the Rams would win. When they did win, I assumed it was one of those fluky wins…although I couldn’t recall a fluky moment glancing back and forth at it from 1-4pm ET. I was sure I missed something as to why this oddity happened…probably all the Denver injuries.
I re-watched the game for scouting purposes. I realized what I missed.
Two things, really.
(1) The Denver Broncos are the old Malone-Stockton Utah Jazz from back in the day…more on this at the very end of this piece. (2) The St. Louis Rams are one of the ten best teams in the NFL right now. Emphasis on ‘now’…it’s a late developing situation. The possibility was there all along. We all saw it (fan and analyst) coming into the season…it’s coming to fruition now.
I’m not saying the Rams will run the table, but they might. I won’t commit to it because I don’t trust Jeff Fisher…a great defensive mind, and an odd offensive strategist. He’s like a more polite Rex Ryan. His teams are always formidable, always under-performing (he’s had two winning seasons in his last nine seasons prior to 2014), occasionally popping up to beat good teams when you least expect it, always having a letdown when just when you start getting excited by his team, always rock solid on defense, and always maddening on offense.
Austin Davis over Shaun Hill was a massive mistake. The Daryl Richardson era was offensive to my football scouting sensibilities. The overuse of Tre Mason right now is bad strategy. The revolving door of under-performing WRs has been frustrating.
It all doesn’t matter now.
Fisher may have just spun the Rubik’s Cube in the direction finally, even if by accident, and figured out a winner…a top-10 NFL team. If he gets whacked at San Diego this week as a follow-up to Denver, he should be fired. Everything you want to know about Jeff Fisher + Rams-talent is going to occur this week. A win this week vs. San Diego, and the Rams may make the playoffs…I kid you not. Lose this week, and it’s over. San Diego has been in a death spiral for weeks…the Rams should deliver a knockout blow Sunday…even going on the road. However, these are the types of games Jeff Fisher loses…and we’ll all chalk it up to ‘no QB’, or ‘young team’ or whatever. If the Rams beat San Diego this week, and do so convincingly…there will be a major shift in the NFL hierarchy for both teams.
It will also mean a massive shift in Fantasy Football for Rams-related items. This is the week to be ahead of that curve, before the Rams are the story of the NFL heading into Week 13. OR I get you all excited, and we get the rug pulled out from us at San Diego, and complain about how awful Jeff Fisher is. It’s not unreasonable to pass on everything I’m about to write because what’s hot one week tends to collapse the following…especially with the emerging teams without a top QB, AND Jeff Fisher usually fumbles the ball in these situations.
Sometimes he doesn’t. He’s a solid coach, especially on good on defense. This is a defensive-led renaissance. This is like ARI-SEA-SF, his division mates…plausible offenses that rely on their defense. The Rams, at full strength, have the best defense in the NFC West…and that statement may be true right now, only the masses don’t ‘feel it’ yet. I think it is coming. Actually, I think it’s here.
This was not a lucky win by the Rams. This was Seattle v. Denver in the Super Bowl bad for Peyton…a let me walk right up to your face and punch you as hard as I can, and you will live in fear of me forever, and you will do nothing about it type of beating. The re-watch of this was stunning how much better the Rams were than Denver…and you do get that this never happens to Denver/Peyton? They never lose to joke teams.
The Rams are no joke…and the whole world will be talking about them with a win this week.
If they lose…I’ll climb back in my hole for six more weeks of winter.
So take this analysis of FF-action with whatever salt grains you’d like…
-- I am going ‘all-in’ on the St. Louis Rams DST for the ROS, preferably as a DST2 hold until next week.
In their first seven games of 2014, the Rams went 2-5 while allowing 26 or more points in six of those contests. The only team they ‘held’ was Tampa Bay in Week 2 (17 points allowed). The Rams were a preseason top 5-10 Fantasy DST for many, and quickly blew up in all our faces right out of the chute.
Here’s the last three weeks…
Week 9: Went to San Francisco and won 13-10. The 49ers went 3 for 12 on 3rd-downs, and the Rams stuffed Colin Kaepernick on the goal line at the end of the game. Even if they didn’t…it would have only 17 points allowed. Frank Gore bottled up, and Kaepernick held mediocre…after he had rocked them a few weeks prior.
Oh, and they sacked Kaepernick eight times.
Week 10: Went to Arizona, led 14-10 at the half. Gave up a late bomb to John Brown, and then allowed two quick defensive scores…and lost 31-14. Without the two D-TDs…they hold ARI to 17 points as well. Arizona was 6 for 15 on 3rd-downs. Andre Ellington carried the ball for 1.3 yards per carry on 18 totes. They stymied Carson Palmer…and sacked him three times…and probably would have gotten 1-2x more sacks if he stayed in.
Week 11: They destroyed Peyton Manning…made him look foolish. Denver scored seven points total…and that was on a busted coverage play to allow Emmanuel Sanders to get wide-open for a long TD.
The last time Peyton Manning was held to seven or fewer points in the regular-season: 2009 in a snowstorm at Buffalo. The last time before that…2001…13 years ago at Miami. Peyton posted eight points in the Super Bowl. The 4-6 St. Louis Rams just did it to him again…in a dome.
Denver went 4 for 12 on 3rd-downs vs. STL…three weeks in-a-row where the Rams held opponents to 40% or less on conversions…to three playoff teams.
What has changed? A couple of things: Aaron Donald (3 tackles, 1 sack) is ‘special’. As Donald is now playing heavier snaps, Robert Quinn (3 PDs, 1 QB hit) has gone from M.I.A. back to menacing again. #1 CB Janoris Jenkins (4 tackles) missed a few games…he is back the last two weeks. The Rams traded for Mark Barron (1 tackle). CB/S Trumaine Johnson (2 tackles, 2 PD, 1 INT) is back the past three weeks. Rookie CB E.J. Gaines (8 tackles, 2 PD) is playing better and better. Chris Long is practicing this week for the first time since he went on IR early in the season.
The DST world is changing in St. Louis.
There’s more good FF-news…
Here’s the upcoming schedule of QBs to face from Week 12 to Week 16: Rivers (who is fading), Carr, RG3, Stanton, Eli. All favorable matchups with slight concern on the road vs. Philip Rivers. Again, the Rams just humiliated Peyton Manning.
If the Rams stomp the Chargers this week, then everyone in FF will look at the upcoming schedule and see it too. The Rams will be beyond motivated for Weeks 13-16. The time to get ahead of it is now. If the Rams lose this week…it’s still good, but not as good because we don’t know where their heads will be at as the lost season trudges on.
-- Another advantage for the Rams-DST, and the team in general: Shaun Hill (20-29 for 220 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is a really capable, underrated QB.
Honestly, if you did not have preconceived notions/history of experience on your side, and you watched this game as an empty slate, and I told you one of these QBs is an all-time great, and the other is a backup—you would identify Hill as the star, and Peyton as the jittery hack.
I’ve seen Hill look really good before…he was terrific at times for Detroit as a fill-in starter in 2010. Did you know Hill has never had an NFL season with more picks than TD passes? He has 42 TD/24 INT in his career through last Sunday. He is not a hack…he’s just been overlooked. In this game, he was so superior in decision-making and arm velocity it was jarring. Peyton looked like my dog when he hears a loud noise…ears down, jumpy, sullen. The last time I saw Peyton this out of sorts in a game was every time he plays a great team like Seattle or New England the past couple years.
Shaun Hill is a decent NFL QB. Better than everyone gives him credit for. Why Jeff Fisher didn’t go back to Hill sooner with this team is beyond me. Fisher killed himself, offensively, in 2012 jerking around with Daryl Richardson over Steven Jackson too much…now this. He just doesn’t appear to have an ‘eye for it’ on offense. He’s not alone…don’t get me started.
-- If you buy my Shaun Hill premise, then buckle up because Kenny Britt (4 rec. for 128 yards and 1 TD on 7 targets) may be about to launch to Fantasy WR1 status.
It’s not just the numbers posted; it was what didn’t post. Early in the Denver game, Hill threw a bullet deep over the middle to Britt, who was open by 3-5+ yards streaking past all the DBs. They connected for a 33-yard strike, but Britt had to stop for a moment to grab the ball, then tripped trying to re-start. It could have been a 73-yard TD.
Hill narrowly missed Britt a few more times, not in a bad way…in an Aqib Talib lock down way. There are no lock down corners for Britt-Hill ahead. Hill was definitely seeing Britt as his guy…but he was smart enough not to push it when Talib locked down and Denver doubled over the top. Britt may go nuts over the next weeks…I mean that as in FF-production, but it may be as a human off the field. You make the call. I think Britt is getting overlooked…or disbelieved to some degree, and rightfully so. This game says something awesome might occur ahead with Hill-Britt.
