Good article on Receiver prospects

[8to12]

http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-2016-nfl-draft-prospects-results.html

 

[Merlin]

Yeah was a great read and backs up what you see when you watch these guys.

Doctson is just ridiculous, he has rare ability to come down with the ball. Which is what none of the Rams receivers do. This guy would be a revelation to the Rams.

Another noteworthy stat was Shepard vs the press. He is one of those smaller WRs that will be able to play out wide. He's feisty and gets open all over the joint and we saw it in the Senior Bowl week so I gotta think Snead and Fish took notice.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Yeah was a great read and backs up what you see when you watch these guys.

Doctson is just ridiculous, he has rare ability to come down with the ball. Which is what none of the Rams receivers do. This guy would be a revelation to the Rams.

Another noteworthy stat was Shepard vs the press. He is one of those smaller WRs that will be able to play out wide. He's feisty and gets open all over the joint and we saw it in the Senior Bowl week so I gotta think Snead and Fish took notice.

You named my two favorite receivers in this draft. I hope the Rams land Doctson.

 

[StealYoGurley]

May guys on this board are huge fans of Tyler Boyd, but the metrics don't agree with the hype.

On the other hand Doctson owns the metrics, owns the combine, and owns the game film. Could be BPA at 15 and IMO should be in play there even if Lynch is on the board.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

May guys on this board are huge fans of Tyler Boyd, but the metrics don't agree with the hype.

On the other hand Doctson owns the metrics, owns the combine, and owns the game film. Could be BPA at 15 and IMO should be in play there even if Lynch is on the board.

I think Boyd is a late 2nd and Doctson is a 15-25 slot

 

[Ram65]

That's a crazy amount of info/stats. Got to love it if your really invested in analyzing the WR class. Thanks 8to12

 

[rdlkgliders]

Although a little small I like Sterling Shepard especially as a 2nd rounder maybe even our 3rd pick if we can get 2 great players before him.
I think Shepards game translates to a productive career at the NFL level.

 

[RaminExile]

Id love me some Doctson...or Treadwelll or Coleman or Sheppard. Not set on Boyd tbh but the depth is clearly there.

Really though I'd love us to go with a guy with big catch vertical ability to be a real red zone threat.

 

[8to12]

Although a little small I like Sterling Shepard especially as a 2nd rounder maybe even our 3rd pick if we can get 2 great players before him.
I think Shepards game translates to a productive career at the NFL level.

I agree with Shepard ....maybe my favorite player.

My dream draft is that the Rams come out with 3 different players ; 1) outside receiver to compete with Britt & Quick ( Boyd, Doctson, Treadweel, Thomas ) 2) A slot receiver (Shepard....maybe C. Pharoh) 3) a well rounded TE who can play inline along with Kendricks and who is a good enough pass catcher to split wide in certain formations ; ( H. Henry, N. Vannett, T Higbee, J. Adams)

 

[Dieter the Brock]

I like me some Boyd but for the Rams I hope it's Carroo

Leonte Carroo also showed good balance in his route tree, even if his slant route percentage was his clear highest mark. He ran outs and corner routes frequently, with a sprinkling of other out-breaking routes. Carroo can threaten a defense at every level of the field, and has great experience as a route runner.

 

[jrry32]

May guys on this board are huge fans of Tyler Boyd, but the metrics don't agree with the hype.

On the other hand Doctson owns the metrics, owns the combine, and owns the game film. Could be BPA at 15 and IMO should be in play there even if Lynch is on the board.

Film >>>>>> Metrics

Josh Doctson has no business being in play over Lynch. Or being in play period with Lynch on the board.

 

[StealYoGurley]

Film >>>>>> Metrics

Josh Doctson has no business being in play over Lynch. Or being in play period with Lynch on the board.

In that case Josh Doctson's tape is way better than Lynch's film. Lynch is throwing quick screens, slants, and the occasional deep shot. His offense is so simple it hard to project what he will do going through NFL progressions. He definitely has tools and potential, but based on his college tape all you can do is guess. A major part of his evaluation we will never know, because we can't quiz him on his comprehension of an NFL schemes. If our coaches question him and think he can handle that great if he is there at 15, but right now there is no way you can tell me that Lynch is a better player than Doctson strictly based on film. Doctson on film has the best hands in college football, best ability to high point the football, best body control, and is a great route runner. He clearly displays on skills that project to NFL sucess right away. I cannot say the same for Lynch

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Doctson isn't the guy this team needs - he's fun to watch on highlight reels but not the guy IMO

 

[jrry32]

In that case Josh Doctson's tape is way better than Lynch's film. Lynch is throwing quick screens, slants, and the occasional deep shot. His offense is so simple it hard to project what he will do going through NFL progressions. He definitely has tools and potential, but based on his college tape all you can do is guess. A major part of his evaluation we will never know, because we can't quiz him on his comprehension of an NFL schemes. If our coaches question him and think he can handle that great if he is there at 15, but right now there is no way you can tell me that Lynch is a better player than Doctson strictly based on film. Doctson on film has the best hands in college football, best ability to high point the football, best body control, and is a great route runner. He clearly displays on skills that project to NFL sucess right away. I cannot say the same for Lynch

Doctson and Lynch don't play the same position so even if this is true, this point doesn't end the debate. Paxton Lynch plays the most important position in football. Josh Doctson plays one of the least important positions. Furthermore, Doctson's position is almost entirely reliant on the position Lynch plays to produce.

Additionally, it's kind of odd you'd bring up Lynch's scheme to knock him but conveniently not mention it for Doctson who plays in an Air Raid offense.

In fact, your critiques of Lynch sound a lot like the same critiques we heard about Mariota. Yet, Mariota looked just fine as a rookie. Especially considering I've already provided evidence in this forum of Lynch going through progressions.

And no, I won't tell you that Lynch is a better player than Doctson based on film. Because I haven't finished my evaluation of Doctson yet. I'll let you know what I think when I have time to finish that evaluation.

But even if I do end up deciding that he's a better player, I still won't rate him over Lynch for our pick at #15. Because he's a WR and Lynch is a QB. And I think Lynch can be a franchise QB.

 

[StealYoGurley]

Doctson and Lynch don't play the same position so even if this is true, this point doesn't end the debate. Paxton Lynch plays the most important position in football. Josh Doctson plays one of the least important positions. Furthermore, Doctson's position is almost entirely reliant on the position Lynch plays to produce.

Additionally, it's kind of odd you'd bring up Lynch's scheme to knock him but conveniently not mention it for Doctson who plays in an Air Raid offense.

In fact, your critiques of Lynch sound a lot like the same critiques we heard about Mariota. Yet, Mariota looked just fine as a rookie. Especially considering I've already provided evidence in this forum of Lynch going through progressions.

And no, I won't tell you that Lynch is a better player than Doctson based on film. Because I haven't finished my evaluation of Doctson yet. I'll let you know what I think when I have time to finish that evaluation.

But even if I do end up deciding that he's a better player, I still won't rate him over Lynch for our pick at #15. Because he's a WR and Lynch is a QB. And I think Lynch can be a franchise QB.

Rams have done well having terrible production from the "one of the least important positions"

I didn't bring up the system because the majority of the routes Doctson runs in college slants, fades, outs, comebacks he will run in the NFL and he also has the athletic traits that will help that transition (not saying Lynch doesn't have good athleticism for a QB). On the other hand the majority of of what Lynch does in college is only a small part of what he will do in the NFL

Mariota went 2 overall an elite prospect Lynch is not in that class IMO. Mariota played against a higher level of competition, his tape was better, and he is way more athletic than Lynch. His talent and positional traits transcended the college system he played in. If decision makers more seasoned than you and I determine Lynch has the same type of talent or close he will be gone by 15.

Looking forward to your evaluation of Doctson. I don't think his tape will disappoint. Draftbreakdown.com has lot of his tape.

IMO if the Rams want to get a Franchise QB in round 1 they will have to trade up even if they determine that guy is Lynch. In this league successful Franchise QBs rarely go in the middle of the first round. If Lynch is on the board at 15 in this QB starved league where Sam Bradford is getting ridiculous money that says alot about him. IMO we would be better served getting a great player like Doctson who could elevate our anemic offense.

 

[jrry32]

Rams have done well having terrible production from the "one of the least important positions"

I didn't bring up the system because the majority of the routes Doctson runs in college slants, fades, outs, comebacks he will run in the NFL and he also has the athletic traits that will help that transition (not saying Lynch doesn't have good athleticism for a QB). On the other hand the majority of of what Lynch does in college is only a small part of what he will do in the NFL

Disagree. Doctson has the same issues with system that Lynch does. Having a NFL playbook and using NFL verbiage will be a major change. On top of that, Doctson did not run anything approaching a NFL route tree. He mainly ran slants, digs, posts, and 9 routes with a few other routes occasionally sprinkled in. This is very similar to the route tree that Baylor uses.

Mariota went 2 overall an elite prospect Lynch is not in that class IMO. Mariota played against a higher level of competition, his tape was better, and he is way more athletic than Lynch. His talent and positional traits transcended the college system he played in. If decision makers more seasoned than you and I determine Lynch has the same type of talent or close he will be gone by 15.

Mariota was more advanced than Lynch but you ignored the point. Mariota was another in a long line of QBs that people claimed wouldn't be able to play as rookies. He did play and played well. I remember when people claimed Cam Newton would need 2-3 years on the bench.

As for talent, Mariota was more mobile but Lynch is bigger, stronger, and has a stronger arm. NFL teams will value that highly. He also is quite mobile for a guy his size. As I've said before, he has a lot in common with Blake Bortles. There are some differences between the two but Lynch is a big, athletic guy that is only scratching the surface of his potential. As I said with Blake, he improved each year in college. That should give you confidence that he'll continue improving in the NFL.

Looking forward to your evaluation of Doctson. I don't think his tape will disappoint. Draftbreakdown.com has lot of his tape.

A summary of my evaluation of Doctson:

• Very good pair of mitts; made a lot of tough catches in traffic, went up and got the ball, and only had a couple of drops that I saw
• Great athlete; has the top speed to get deep, very quick and fluid, outstanding body control, and great balance
• Solid YAC skills; balance and size make him slippery which allows him to pick up some yards after the catch, has the speed to run away from defenders, and a good stiff arm
• Needs to get stronger; struggles when rerouted, will have some issues with NFL press CBs when they get their hands on him, CBs that stick with him can push him to the out of bounds line but he's willing to get physical and I like that
• Route running needs development; relies on his physical gifts (natural quickness and speed) to separate, routes aren't crisp, too upright as a route runner (this is one of the big causes for his lack of explosion coming out of breaks and his inefficient footwork), tips his hand on certain routes (like the dig), footwork is inefficient but there is nuance to his routes that make me believe he can improve with time and he typically does a nice job of sinking his hips
• Lethal in the air; hard not to notice how good he is at going up and getting it, really stands out
• NFL Comparison: DeVante Parker - Parker was a little more refined coming out but Doctson has a very similar skill-set and wins in the same sort of ways

I'd take him in the first round...if we didn't need a QB.

IMO if the Rams want to get a Franchise QB in round 1 they will have to trade up even if they determine that guy is Lynch.

Then trade up.

In this league successful Franchise QBs rarely go in the middle of the first round. If Lynch is on the board at 15 in this QB starved league where Sam Bradford is getting ridiculous money that says alot about him. IMO we would be better served getting a great player like Doctson who could elevate our anemic offense.

This is terrible logic.
Aaron Rodgers - #24
Ben Roethlisberger - #11
Joe Flacco - #18
Teddy Bridgewater - #32
Derek Carr - #36
Andy Dalton - #35
Drew Brees - #32
Jay Cutler - #11
Chad Pennington - #18

Lynch is who he is. Where he gets drafted doesn't change that.

And I'm sorry but Doctson, as talented as he is, isn't elevating anything with Case Keenum or Nick Foles at QB.

 

[StealYoGurley]

Disagree. Doctson has the same issues with system that Lynch does. Having a NFL playbook and using NFL verbiage will be a major change. On top of that, Doctson did not run anything approaching a NFL route tree. He mainly ran slants, digs, posts, and 9 routes with a few other routes occasionally sprinkled in. This is very similar to the route tree that Baylor uses.

Yes verbiage will be a major change, but verbiage varies everywhere even from team to team in the NFL. So you are telling me he wont run those routes as an outside receiver in the rams offense? Those are the primary routes outside receivers run. Ya he will have to run more routes in the NFL, but he is already good at many routes he will run often in the NFL and he has the traits needed to expand his route tree. Not many WRs come into the NFL with a polished NFL route tree because only a few of them are asked to run an NFL route tree in College. What teams are looking for are traits that show they could develop the ability to run an NFL route Tree and Doctson has those traits.

Mariota was more advanced than Lynch but you ignored the point. Mariota was another in a long line of QBs that people claimed wouldn't be able to play as rookies. He did play and played well. I remember when people claimed Cam Newton would need 2-3 years on the bench.

As for talent, Mariota was more mobile but Lynch is bigger, stronger, and has a stronger arm. NFL teams will value that highly. He also is quite mobile for a guy his size. As I've said before, he has a lot in common with Blake Bortles. There are some differences between the two but Lynch is a big, athletic guy that is only scratching the surface of his potential. As I said with Blake, he improved each year in college. That should give you confidence that he'll continue improving in the NFL.

Mariota more advanced in what way? They both started 3 years in spread offenses. Lynch had to make fewer full field reads and attempted fewer NFL throws. Hard to project NFL success when you rarely do things you will be asked to do in the NFL. My point is thats a huge gamble at 15 when you can get talent that will definitely help you. Mariota and Cam were elite athletically at their position you could argue they are the two most athletic QBs in the NFL, which really helps their nfl projection even if you dont see a ton of NFL concepts on tape. Bortels and Lynch share a few similarities, but I wouldn't equate them to the same extent you are doing. Bortels had more pro style throws on tape.

What NFL teams value more than a strong arm is accuracy and anticipation. You see way more of that in Mariota's tape. Cam Newton is an athletic freak. Athletically he profiles way above Lynch and has a much stronger arm. When Cam Newton stepped into the league he was already more athletic and physically dominant than alot of the defenders he faced. That eased his transition to the NFL tremendously. Lynch is not even close Mariota's or Cam's class athletically.

He should improve every year in college that is not saying much. I think it says more if you dont improve every year in college as a QB.

This is terrible logic.
Aaron Rodgers - #24
Ben Roethlisberger - #11
Joe Flacco - #18
Teddy Bridgewater - #32
Derek Carr - #36
Andy Dalton - #35
Drew Brees - #32
Jay Cutler - #11
Chad Pennington - #18

Lynch is who he is. Where he gets drafted doesn't change that.

And I'm sorry but Doctson, as talented as he is, isn't elevating anything with Case Keenum or Nick Foles at QB.

I was talking about mid first round QBs Car, Dalton, Brees all second rounders and Teddy practically a second rounder as well. You are objecting to Lynch being two years away and yet you bring up Aaron Rodgers who sat for two years. First round QBs rarely get that luxury anymore and its even more rare they get to sit and learn behind a first ballot hall of famer.

Roethlisberger is good example, but he is one pick out the top ten. Has Jay Cutler really elevated a team? He made one pro bowl just one less than Marc Bulger. Flacco won a Superbowl and has been on winning teams cant knock you there, but thats just one example in the last 15 years 2 if you want to count Roethlisberger as a mid first rounder.

I would also argue the climate has changed since your most recent QB example drafted in 2008 Joe Flacco. These days you have a guy like Ryan Tanehill going in the top ten even though he played WR most of his college career. If Lynch is really as talented as you say he is he will go in the Top 10 and I just don't see it. These days the value of the QB is so high if you are good enough to go in the middle of the first positional value will boost you into the top ten.

 

[jrry32]

Yes verbiage will be a major change, but verbiage varies everywhere even from team to team in the NFL. So you are telling me he wont run those routes as an outside receiver in the rams offense? Those are the primary routes outside receivers run. Ya he will have to run more routes in the NFL, but he is already good at many routes he will run often in the NFL and he has the traits needed to expand his route tree. Not many WRs come into the NFL with a polished NFL route tree because only a few of them are asked to run an NFL route tree in College. What teams are looking for are traits that show they could develop the ability to run an NFL route Tree and Doctson has those traits.

Disagree. He's not good at the routes he will run often in the NFL.

And it's irrelevant if he'll run slants, digs, 9s, posts, etc. That's only a portion of the routes he'll run in the NFL, they'll be run differently in the NFL, and the options will be far more complex.

It would be like me claiming the same thing with Paxton Lynch because he throws to some routes that are used in the NFL. It's just not a good argument. Every WR can say the same thing.

Mariota more advanced in what way? They both started 3 years in spread offenses. Lynch had to make fewer full field reads and attempted fewer NFL throws. Hard to project NFL success when you rarely do things you will be asked to do in the NFL. My point is thats a huge gamble at 15 when you can get talent that will definitely help you. Mariota and Cam were elite athletically at their position you could argue they are the two most athletic QBs in the NFL, which really helps their nfl projection even if you dont see a ton of NFL concepts on tape. Bortels and Lynch share a few similarities, but I wouldn't equate them to the same extent you are doing. Bortels had more pro style throws on tape.

Mariota was more advanced mentally. Better at reading the defense and spotting the open man. Although, he wasn't perfect in that regard.

And no offense but if you think Lynch rarely did things that he was asked to do in the NFL, you need to rewatch the film. His system limited him in ways but there's more than enough on tape to project him out.

The QB position is worth a huge gamble. And I don't consider it to be a huge gamble. Taking Christian Hackenberg is a huge (and bad imo) gamble. Lynch isn't.

Cam and Mariota are just two examples, dude. If you want to nitpick those two examples, we can talk about Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Sam Bradford. All four came from college spread offenses and played well enough as rookies.

Bortles didn't really have more pro style throws on tape. His system had a lot of similarities to Lynch's. Bortles threw less screens but more short, check-down type passes.

What NFL teams value more than a strong arm is accuracy and anticipation. You see way more of that in Mariota's tape. Cam Newton is an athletic freak. Athletically he profiles way above Lynch and has a much stronger arm. When Cam Newton stepped into the league he was already more athletic and physically dominant than alot of the defenders he faced. That eased his transition to the NFL tremendously. Lynch is not even close Mariota's or Cam's class athletically.

Gave you four more examples. Andy Dalton played in the exact same system.(Lynch's HC was Dalton's OC) You're nitpicking and ignoring the greater point.

He should improve every year in college that is not saying much. I think it says more if you dont improve every year in college as a QB.

Again, you're missing the point. It's not that he improved; it's how much he improved.

I was talking about mid first round QBs Car, Dalton, Brees all second rounders and Teddy practically a second rounder as well. You are objecting to Lynch being two years away and yet you bring up Aaron Rodgers who sat for two years. First round QBs rarely get that luxury anymore and its even more rare they get to sit and learn behind a first ballot hall of famer.

That's an illogical argument. You claimed that if you fall to the mid-first, there must be something wrong with you. How does the same logic not apply even more to QBs that fall to the late-first or early-second? It does.

Yes, I bring up Aaron Rodgers. Because I don't care if Lynch is two years away if he develops into Aaron Rodgers.

Roethlisberger is good example, but he is one pick out the top ten. Has Jay Cutler really elevated a team? He made one pro bowl just one less than Marc Bulger. Flacco won a Superbowl and has been on winning teams cant knock you there, but thats just one example in the last 15 years 2 if you want to count Roethlisberger as a mid first rounder.

Jay Cutler is far better than what we have at QB. A QB on Cutler's level is good enough to put this team in the playoff hunt. Even a Cutler level QB is more valuable than a #1 WR.

I would also argue the climate has changed since your most recent QB example drafted in 2008 Joe Flacco. These days you have a guy like Ryan Tanehill going in the top ten even though he played WR most of his college career. If Lynch is really as talented as you say he is he will go in the Top 10 and I just don't see it. These days the value of the QB is so high if you are good enough to go in the middle of the first positional value will boost you into the top ten.

Yea, the climate has changed. It's gotten easier to throw the ball. Drafting QBs has not changed. Back in Flacco's days, you had Mark Sanchez going in the top 10 with one year of starting experience. Hell, you had Kyle Boller go in the first round a few years before that despite completing less than 50% of his passes in college. QBs were just as valued back then.

Flacco went mid-first because people questioned his level of competition, his college system (spread offense), and how NFL ready he was. Sounds a lot like what's happening now.

 

[DR RAM]

He would be my #1 WR, at this point. Very smooth out of his breaks, and very good hands.

 

[StealYoGurley]

Disagree. He's not good at the routes he will run often in the NFL.

And it's irrelevant if he'll run slants, digs, 9s, posts, etc. That's only a portion of the routes he'll run in the NFL, they'll be run differently in the NFL, and the options will be far more complex.

It would be like me claiming the same thing with Paxton Lynch because he throws to some routes that are used in the NFL. It's just not a good argument. Every WR can say the same thing.



Mariota was more advanced mentally. Better at reading the defense and spotting the open man. Although, he wasn't perfect in that regard.

And no offense but if you think Lynch rarely did things that he was asked to do in the NFL, you need to rewatch the film. His system limited him in ways but there's more than enough on tape to project him out.

The QB position is worth a huge gamble. And I don't consider it to be a huge gamble. Taking Christian Hackenberg is a huge (and bad imo) gamble. Lynch isn't.

Cam and Mariota are just two examples, dude. If you want to nitpick those two examples, we can talk about Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Sam Bradford. All four came from college spread offenses and played well enough as rookies.

Bortles didn't really have more pro style throws on tape. His system had a lot of similarities to Lynch's. Bortles threw less screens but more short, check-down type passes.



Gave you four more examples. Andy Dalton played in the exact same system.(Lynch's HC was Dalton's OC) You're nitpicking and ignoring the greater point.



Again, you're missing the point. It's not that he improved; it's how much he improved.



That's an illogical argument. You claimed that if you fall to the mid-first, there must be something wrong with you. How does the same logic not apply even more to QBs that fall to the late-first or early-second? It does.

Yes, I bring up Aaron Rodgers. Because I don't care if Lynch is two years away if he develops into Aaron Rodgers.



Jay Cutler is far better than what we have at QB. A QB on Cutler's level is good enough to put this team in the playoff hunt. Even a Cutler level QB is more valuable than a #1 WR.



Yea, the climate has changed. It's gotten easier to throw the ball. Drafting QBs has not changed. Back in Flacco's days, you had Mark Sanchez going in the top 10 with one year of starting experience. Hell, you had Kyle Boller go in the first round a few years before that despite completing less than 50% of his passes in college. QBs were just as valued back then.

Flacco went mid-first because people questioned his level of competition, his college system (spread offense), and how NFL ready he was. Sounds a lot like what's happening now.

ya we just aren't going to agree on this one, but its all good