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My favorite part of the entire NFL season is the moment before the opening kickoff of the early games on Sunday, Week 1.
Whether you’re at a sports bar, at the stadium, or on your couch with your laptop cranked open with 35 minimized fantasy football live scores displayed in beautiful grandeur — it’s euphoric.
No matter what’s going on in your life, no matter how many things outside of football are on your mind (wife, kids, job, "Breaking Bad" spoilers) — everything is OK for that one moment.
Football is back.
It’s during this sliver of time that fans of 32 teams convince themselves that their squad — yes, this is the year! — is going to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy six months down the road. Raiders fans find a way to rally around a (reportedly) healthy Darren McFadden and Browns supporters are legitimately excited about Brandon Weeden’s improved passing numbers this summer. The Jaguars had a glowing profile in ESPN The Magazine and the Chiefs have all sorts of new blood throughout the organization.
In so many long-suffering NFL cities, the refrain is exactly the same: It’s been so bad for so long, but you know what? This is when we turn it around.
Of course, by 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, all that optimism is thrown out the window. Reality sets in. A delay of game penalty makes a first quarter third-and-2 a third-and-7, poor punt coverage has the opponent in the red zone before the first Buffalo wing is even eaten, the same left tackle who’s been making boneheaded mistakes for the past three seasons is called for holding on a big yardage play ... it’s inevitable.
But at 12:58 p.m. ET? The glass is more than half full; it’s overflowing. The world is your oyster. Everything’s right. Everything’s perfect.
Remember to savor that moment this weekend. It might be the happiest you’ll be over the course of the next six months.
++++
We’ll get to the Week 1 picks in a moment.
Before we do that, let’s put some predictions down. Not lame ones (Drew Brees will be good!). Bold ones. At times, I’ve been very good at these (see: 2012 Baltimore Ravens).
I’ve also been bad (see: 2012 Dallas Cowboys). I was as high on Robert Griffin III as I was with any rookie quarterback in recent memory last year. I also didn’t think Russell Wilson had a shot of making it in the NFL. Seahawks fans remind me of it Every. Single. Day.
So, pin these up on a wall somewhere. Clobber me if I’m way off. It’s OK to step out on a limb, as long as you’re willing to take the readers’ abuse when you’re wrong. I’m completely fine with that. Hell, I encourage it.
Here are the Cheat Sheet’s 10 Bold Predictions for the 2013 season:
NEED SOME? GET SOME
Feed your NFL addiction! Come feast on all the news in our updating blog.
1. The St. Louis Rams will be better than the Seattle Seahawks: Oh, baby. We’re coming out swinging. The entire offseason, all we heard about was the 49ers and the Seahawks; Seahawks and the 49ers. Seemingly not a word was said about what the Rams did to their roster. Jared Cook, Jake Long, Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree. St. Louis led the league in sacks a season ago and the defense only got better. I went back and watched Colin Kaepernick’s two games against the Rams last season. A tie in San Francisco and a brutally ugly performance in St. Louis. 0-1-1. Steven Jackson’s gone, but I think the Rams’ offense got much better with Cook and Austin added to the mix. I also think Sam Bradford is destined for a breakout year. Another guy to watch? Ray Ray Armstrong. Who? You’ll soon find out. Rams. NFC West contenders. Book it.
2. The Baltimore Ravens defense will be better in 2013 than it was in 2012: For the price of one Paul Kruger, the Ravens were able to sign veterans Daryl Smith, Michael Huff, Chris Canty, and Marcus Spears. All of those players, with the additions of rookies Matt Elam and Arthur Brown, a healthy Lardarius Webb and All-Pro linebacker Elvis Dumervil will make up for the losses of Kruger, Ray Lewis, Bernard Pollard, Ed Reed, and Dannell Ellerbe. The locker room will be different — well, entirely different — and the defense will, too. It’ll be better.
3. Matt Schaub (and the Texans) will get over the hump: Put Schaub’s numbers up against Brees’ from the past five years. Somehow, some way, they’re eerily similar. Schaub’s been fantastic, and yet, you’d be hard-pressed finding anyone outside of the Texans organization who’d put him in the same breath as Brees, Rodgers, Brady, or any of the other 15 quarterbacks usually listed before him. This is the season Schaub earns the respect. How? By beating the big dogs and winning big games. Houston’s my pick out of the AFC and Schaub — not J.J. Watt or Arian Foster — is the reason why. More on the Texans in a bit.
4. Rex Ryan will last the entire season: Vegas putting lines out about the over/under on Ryan’s job seems premature. Let’s see how things play out first. Even if the year goes terribly, Ryan’s getting paid for the full season, anyway. Rarely do you see coaches fired midway through a season, as putting a new plan/regime in place actually puts the players’ health at risk. Instituting an entirely new culture is an exhausting process that must be built over the course of an offseason. The Jets are going to be bad, but not as bad as everyone seems to think. Rex will last the whole year, and we’ll go from there.
5. The Chip Kelly Experiment is an overwhelming … success: I covered the Eagles’ first two preseason games and must say that it felt like a regular season atmosphere in Philadelphia. The fans are as invested, curious and excited as they seemingly ever were in the Andy Reid era, and the offense delivered. The defense? It was atrocious Week 1 vs. the Patriots, better Week 2 vs. the Panthers, and just fair against the Jaguars in Week 3. Either way, the entire team has bought in. There’s energy, enthusiasm and a belief that this team could be one to worry about. The Eagles are going to be dangerous team, the offense is going to be unpredictable and nasty and the wins will be there. Philadelphia’s been slated by most to win 5-7 games with this year serving as a “transitional” one. Garbage. Put 'em down for 8 or 9 and in the thick of the NFC playoff race.
6. Cam Newton will be the best young quarterback in football: Take your Andrew Luck. Have your Russell Wilson. Enjoy your GQ cover boys Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III. I’m rolling with Cam. With the Panthers out of the playoff hunt after a 2-8 start, Newton caught fire, throwing 15 touchdowns to 1 interception, and finishing the year with five wins in the team’s last six games. He spent the offseason doing and saying the right things. He led by example and stayed away from the limelight. He matured. Year 3 is always the biggest test. That’s where we’re at now. The Carolina defense is much better in 2013 than it was in the past two years, and the weapons on offense are there. Go nuts over your other young quarterbacks. I’m all in on Newton.
7. The Chargers and Raiders will sink to new lows: That’s saying a lot, I know. It hasn’t been pretty for either franchise the past two years, but I think it gets even worse in 2013. San Diego has a new coach and general manager that I’m genuinely high on, but the injury bug has already stung it. I don’t see much from the team this year. As for the Raiders … this could be very bad. Like two or three wins kind of bad. The offense is horrific, but the defense could be worse. In four preseason games, the first-unit D gave up scores in 16 of 18 possessions. Brutal.
2013 NFL SCHEDULE
Check out the full slate for next season.
8. The Indianapolis Colts will take a step back: The Colts were the best story in football a season ago, winning eight more games than the season beforehand, and doing so with a beautiful emotional purpose. They won’t be sneaking up on anybody in 2013. I still have questions about the Colts’ running game and defense, as well as how well the team will play without Bruce Arians — both their offense coordinator and interim head coach in 2012 — roaming the sidelines. Andrew Luck’s the real deal and Chuck Pagano is as respected a mind in football, but it’s going to be hard to duplicate the magic without all the same pieces in place.
9. The Cowboys will figure it out and win the NFC East: So much has been made about who’s calling the plays and who isn’t, whether Tony Romo got too much money this offseason, and if the Cowboys botched the NFL Draft by taking a center in the first round. This is all good for the Cowboys. Every season, they’re the preseason favorites to win the NFC East, and every season, they start off terribly, figure it out around November, and then bow out of the playoff chase after a shaky Week 17. No one’s talking about the Cowboys this year. I like 'em. Dez Bryant’s a beast, DeMarco Murray could get it going, and by locking up Sean Lee, there’s stability alongside DeMarcus Ware on defense. Everyone’s down on the Cowboys this year. Why? Their roster looks darn good to me. I’ll take them to win the NFC East if no one else will.
10. The Houston Texans will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XLVIII: I like teams that have tasted the playoffs, gotten through a round or two, and came up short. The Ravens in 2012. The Packers in 2010. The Colts in 2006. I’m all about the squads that got there, but not all the way. This year’s teams that fit the profile are Houston and Atlanta. Both teams won playoff games in 2012, but fell short. Both teams improved over the offseason. Are you ready for a Matt Ryan-Matt Schaub Super Bowl? The Matt Bowl? Sure you are. Give me Schaub and the Texans in a 23-20 battle in the Meadowlands on Feb. 2.
Schrager Division Standings (*Denotes playoff team)
AFC East
1. New England*
2. Miami
3. Buffalo
4. New York Jets
AFC South
1. Houston*
2. Indianapolis
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville
AFC West
1. Denver*
2. Kansas City
3. San Diego
4. Oakland
AFC North
1. Baltimore*
2. Cincinnati*
3. Pittsburgh*
4. Cleveland
NFC East
1. Dallas*
2. Philadelphia*
3. New York Giants
4. Washington
NFC South
1. Atlanta*
2. Carolina
3. New Orleans
4. Tampa Bay
NFC West
1. San Francisco*
2. St. Louis*
3. Seattle
4. Arizona
INSIDE INFORMATION
Looking for the latest news from around the NFL? Our Insiders got you covered.
NFC North
1. Green Bay*
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
Playoffs
AFC Wild Card Round
No. 3 New England beats No. 6 Pittsburgh
No. 4 Baltimore beats No. 5 Cincinnati
NFC Wild Card Round
No. 3 Dallas beats No. 6 Philadelphia
No. 4 San Francisco beats No. 5 St. Louis
AFC Divisional Round
No. 1 Houston beats No. 4 Baltimore
No. 2 Denver beats No. 3 New England
NFC Divisional Round
No. 1 Atlanta beats No. 5 San Francisco
No. 2 Green Bay beats No. 3 Dallas
AFC Championship Game
No. 1 Houston beats 2. Denver
NFC Championship Game
No. 1 Atlanta beats No. 2 Green Bay
Super Bowl XLVIII: Houston beats Atlanta
Award Predictions
MVP: Matt Ryan
Offensive Player of the Year: Calvin Johnson
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt
Coach of the Year: Jeff Fisher
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tavon Austin
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Alec Ogletree
Comeback Player of the Year: Alex Smith
My favorite part of the entire NFL season is the moment before the opening kickoff of the early games on Sunday, Week 1.
Whether you’re at a sports bar, at the stadium, or on your couch with your laptop cranked open with 35 minimized fantasy football live scores displayed in beautiful grandeur — it’s euphoric.
No matter what’s going on in your life, no matter how many things outside of football are on your mind (wife, kids, job, "Breaking Bad" spoilers) — everything is OK for that one moment.
Football is back.
It’s during this sliver of time that fans of 32 teams convince themselves that their squad — yes, this is the year! — is going to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy six months down the road. Raiders fans find a way to rally around a (reportedly) healthy Darren McFadden and Browns supporters are legitimately excited about Brandon Weeden’s improved passing numbers this summer. The Jaguars had a glowing profile in ESPN The Magazine and the Chiefs have all sorts of new blood throughout the organization.
In so many long-suffering NFL cities, the refrain is exactly the same: It’s been so bad for so long, but you know what? This is when we turn it around.
Of course, by 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, all that optimism is thrown out the window. Reality sets in. A delay of game penalty makes a first quarter third-and-2 a third-and-7, poor punt coverage has the opponent in the red zone before the first Buffalo wing is even eaten, the same left tackle who’s been making boneheaded mistakes for the past three seasons is called for holding on a big yardage play ... it’s inevitable.
But at 12:58 p.m. ET? The glass is more than half full; it’s overflowing. The world is your oyster. Everything’s right. Everything’s perfect.
Remember to savor that moment this weekend. It might be the happiest you’ll be over the course of the next six months.
++++
We’ll get to the Week 1 picks in a moment.
Before we do that, let’s put some predictions down. Not lame ones (Drew Brees will be good!). Bold ones. At times, I’ve been very good at these (see: 2012 Baltimore Ravens).
I’ve also been bad (see: 2012 Dallas Cowboys). I was as high on Robert Griffin III as I was with any rookie quarterback in recent memory last year. I also didn’t think Russell Wilson had a shot of making it in the NFL. Seahawks fans remind me of it Every. Single. Day.
So, pin these up on a wall somewhere. Clobber me if I’m way off. It’s OK to step out on a limb, as long as you’re willing to take the readers’ abuse when you’re wrong. I’m completely fine with that. Hell, I encourage it.
Here are the Cheat Sheet’s 10 Bold Predictions for the 2013 season:
NEED SOME? GET SOME
Feed your NFL addiction! Come feast on all the news in our updating blog.
1. The St. Louis Rams will be better than the Seattle Seahawks: Oh, baby. We’re coming out swinging. The entire offseason, all we heard about was the 49ers and the Seahawks; Seahawks and the 49ers. Seemingly not a word was said about what the Rams did to their roster. Jared Cook, Jake Long, Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree. St. Louis led the league in sacks a season ago and the defense only got better. I went back and watched Colin Kaepernick’s two games against the Rams last season. A tie in San Francisco and a brutally ugly performance in St. Louis. 0-1-1. Steven Jackson’s gone, but I think the Rams’ offense got much better with Cook and Austin added to the mix. I also think Sam Bradford is destined for a breakout year. Another guy to watch? Ray Ray Armstrong. Who? You’ll soon find out. Rams. NFC West contenders. Book it.
2. The Baltimore Ravens defense will be better in 2013 than it was in 2012: For the price of one Paul Kruger, the Ravens were able to sign veterans Daryl Smith, Michael Huff, Chris Canty, and Marcus Spears. All of those players, with the additions of rookies Matt Elam and Arthur Brown, a healthy Lardarius Webb and All-Pro linebacker Elvis Dumervil will make up for the losses of Kruger, Ray Lewis, Bernard Pollard, Ed Reed, and Dannell Ellerbe. The locker room will be different — well, entirely different — and the defense will, too. It’ll be better.
3. Matt Schaub (and the Texans) will get over the hump: Put Schaub’s numbers up against Brees’ from the past five years. Somehow, some way, they’re eerily similar. Schaub’s been fantastic, and yet, you’d be hard-pressed finding anyone outside of the Texans organization who’d put him in the same breath as Brees, Rodgers, Brady, or any of the other 15 quarterbacks usually listed before him. This is the season Schaub earns the respect. How? By beating the big dogs and winning big games. Houston’s my pick out of the AFC and Schaub — not J.J. Watt or Arian Foster — is the reason why. More on the Texans in a bit.
4. Rex Ryan will last the entire season: Vegas putting lines out about the over/under on Ryan’s job seems premature. Let’s see how things play out first. Even if the year goes terribly, Ryan’s getting paid for the full season, anyway. Rarely do you see coaches fired midway through a season, as putting a new plan/regime in place actually puts the players’ health at risk. Instituting an entirely new culture is an exhausting process that must be built over the course of an offseason. The Jets are going to be bad, but not as bad as everyone seems to think. Rex will last the whole year, and we’ll go from there.
5. The Chip Kelly Experiment is an overwhelming … success: I covered the Eagles’ first two preseason games and must say that it felt like a regular season atmosphere in Philadelphia. The fans are as invested, curious and excited as they seemingly ever were in the Andy Reid era, and the offense delivered. The defense? It was atrocious Week 1 vs. the Patriots, better Week 2 vs. the Panthers, and just fair against the Jaguars in Week 3. Either way, the entire team has bought in. There’s energy, enthusiasm and a belief that this team could be one to worry about. The Eagles are going to be dangerous team, the offense is going to be unpredictable and nasty and the wins will be there. Philadelphia’s been slated by most to win 5-7 games with this year serving as a “transitional” one. Garbage. Put 'em down for 8 or 9 and in the thick of the NFC playoff race.
6. Cam Newton will be the best young quarterback in football: Take your Andrew Luck. Have your Russell Wilson. Enjoy your GQ cover boys Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III. I’m rolling with Cam. With the Panthers out of the playoff hunt after a 2-8 start, Newton caught fire, throwing 15 touchdowns to 1 interception, and finishing the year with five wins in the team’s last six games. He spent the offseason doing and saying the right things. He led by example and stayed away from the limelight. He matured. Year 3 is always the biggest test. That’s where we’re at now. The Carolina defense is much better in 2013 than it was in the past two years, and the weapons on offense are there. Go nuts over your other young quarterbacks. I’m all in on Newton.
7. The Chargers and Raiders will sink to new lows: That’s saying a lot, I know. It hasn’t been pretty for either franchise the past two years, but I think it gets even worse in 2013. San Diego has a new coach and general manager that I’m genuinely high on, but the injury bug has already stung it. I don’t see much from the team this year. As for the Raiders … this could be very bad. Like two or three wins kind of bad. The offense is horrific, but the defense could be worse. In four preseason games, the first-unit D gave up scores in 16 of 18 possessions. Brutal.
2013 NFL SCHEDULE
Check out the full slate for next season.
8. The Indianapolis Colts will take a step back: The Colts were the best story in football a season ago, winning eight more games than the season beforehand, and doing so with a beautiful emotional purpose. They won’t be sneaking up on anybody in 2013. I still have questions about the Colts’ running game and defense, as well as how well the team will play without Bruce Arians — both their offense coordinator and interim head coach in 2012 — roaming the sidelines. Andrew Luck’s the real deal and Chuck Pagano is as respected a mind in football, but it’s going to be hard to duplicate the magic without all the same pieces in place.
9. The Cowboys will figure it out and win the NFC East: So much has been made about who’s calling the plays and who isn’t, whether Tony Romo got too much money this offseason, and if the Cowboys botched the NFL Draft by taking a center in the first round. This is all good for the Cowboys. Every season, they’re the preseason favorites to win the NFC East, and every season, they start off terribly, figure it out around November, and then bow out of the playoff chase after a shaky Week 17. No one’s talking about the Cowboys this year. I like 'em. Dez Bryant’s a beast, DeMarco Murray could get it going, and by locking up Sean Lee, there’s stability alongside DeMarcus Ware on defense. Everyone’s down on the Cowboys this year. Why? Their roster looks darn good to me. I’ll take them to win the NFC East if no one else will.
10. The Houston Texans will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XLVIII: I like teams that have tasted the playoffs, gotten through a round or two, and came up short. The Ravens in 2012. The Packers in 2010. The Colts in 2006. I’m all about the squads that got there, but not all the way. This year’s teams that fit the profile are Houston and Atlanta. Both teams won playoff games in 2012, but fell short. Both teams improved over the offseason. Are you ready for a Matt Ryan-Matt Schaub Super Bowl? The Matt Bowl? Sure you are. Give me Schaub and the Texans in a 23-20 battle in the Meadowlands on Feb. 2.
Schrager Division Standings (*Denotes playoff team)
AFC East
1. New England*
2. Miami
3. Buffalo
4. New York Jets
AFC South
1. Houston*
2. Indianapolis
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville
AFC West
1. Denver*
2. Kansas City
3. San Diego
4. Oakland
AFC North
1. Baltimore*
2. Cincinnati*
3. Pittsburgh*
4. Cleveland
NFC East
1. Dallas*
2. Philadelphia*
3. New York Giants
4. Washington
NFC South
1. Atlanta*
2. Carolina
3. New Orleans
4. Tampa Bay
NFC West
1. San Francisco*
2. St. Louis*
3. Seattle
4. Arizona
INSIDE INFORMATION
Looking for the latest news from around the NFL? Our Insiders got you covered.
NFC North
1. Green Bay*
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
Playoffs
AFC Wild Card Round
No. 3 New England beats No. 6 Pittsburgh
No. 4 Baltimore beats No. 5 Cincinnati
NFC Wild Card Round
No. 3 Dallas beats No. 6 Philadelphia
No. 4 San Francisco beats No. 5 St. Louis
AFC Divisional Round
No. 1 Houston beats No. 4 Baltimore
No. 2 Denver beats No. 3 New England
NFC Divisional Round
No. 1 Atlanta beats No. 5 San Francisco
No. 2 Green Bay beats No. 3 Dallas
AFC Championship Game
No. 1 Houston beats 2. Denver
NFC Championship Game
No. 1 Atlanta beats No. 2 Green Bay
Super Bowl XLVIII: Houston beats Atlanta
Award Predictions
MVP: Matt Ryan
Offensive Player of the Year: Calvin Johnson
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt
Coach of the Year: Jeff Fisher
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tavon Austin
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Alec Ogletree
Comeback Player of the Year: Alex Smith
