GDT: The Early and Late Games
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-new-orleans-saints-teams-already-broken-pack
The NFL elite have already revealed themselves
In a cool, quiet hallway off the Seahawks' practice field in early August, coach Pete Carroll cuts off my question about the challenge of balancing a win-now mindset with the need to build and maintain a roster for the future.
"I don't have any idea what that's all about," Carroll says. "You go for everything you can possibly go for every single time you go, forever, until you can't. Maybe people do this 'Oh, maybe we'll win next year' -- I can't imagine. It doesn't register. I can't even relate to the topic."
So ... yeah. Guess we know where Carroll comes down on this issue. This year, like every year, he's going into the season thinking the Seahawks can win the Super Bowl.
He's not alone. Every year, all 32 teams enter the season thinking, on some level, they're going to win the Super Bowl. Even the lowly Browns, winners of one whole game over the past two seasons, have let it cross their minds: "Well, if Pittsburgh has a bad year and Tyrod Taylor breaks out and the defense comes together ..."
Every year, 31 of those teams are wrong.
So what we want to do here is get real -- to narrow it down a bit. Obviously, no matter how optimistic or determined the teams all are, there aren't 32 that can win the big one. This season I'm going to say there are 12. Admittedly, 12 might even be a little generous.
Of course, the Super Bowl LIII champion might not be on this list. After all, had I listed 12 such teams this time last year, I wouldn't have included the Eagles. So I'm fully prepared to look like a fool. But as the early 20th century Swedish statesman Dag Hammarskjold said, "Never, for the sake of peace and quiet, deny your own convictions." He would have been a Vikings fan, I think, had he lived long enough. Which means he'd have liked this list.
THE HEAVY FAVORITES
Eagles, Patriots, Saints, Steelers
These are the real front-runners -- the teams that are going in expecting to win this season's Super Bowl. The teams for whom not winning it would register as a Hangover Part II -- level disappointment.
At this point, the Patriots might as well list the game on the magnetic schedules they give their fans at home openers. The Pats have appeared in three of the past four Super Bowls and won two of them. Their current coach/quarterback combo has won five Super Bowl titles together. They haven't finished a regular season worse than 12-4 since 2009, and the ongoing lack of a legitimate challenger in their own division nearly guarantees them a first-round bye. As long as Tom Brady's slinging, Bill Belichick's scowling and the Jets, Dolphins and Bills are still piecing things together, the Pats belong on the list of favorites.
Now, as Eagles fans will be quick to point out, the Patriots won two of their last three -- but not last season. Yes, the trophy currently resides in Philly, not Foxborough. And you could absolutely pick the Eagles to win it all this year, except that the NFC looks loaded, and teams almost never repeat. Generally, championship teams can't count on the same kinds of breaks and injury luck two years in a row. Which, now that we think about it, could be good news for the Eagles, who had horrendous injury luck last year and still won the whole thing. You can excuse them for believing that they're set up to be the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the Patriots did it 14 years ago.
The Steelers and Saints both have veteran quarterbacks and coaches who've won titles. They have superstar playmakers on offense. And they were both divisional-round losers in January who thought they'd at least get a chance at the conference title games, so they share a desperation about how much longer their window will stay open. Pittsburgh, like New England, doesn't look to have a challenge to worry about inside its division. New Orleans does, but no one else finished top-five in rushing and passing offense last season. The Saints are dangerous.
THE HUNGRY UPSTARTS
Chargers, Jaguars, Rams, Vikings
I know what you're thinking -- or at least what the Jaguars are thinking. How can we put Jacksonville in this group, behind Pittsburgh, after the Jags waxed the Steelers twice last season in Pittsburgh, including in the playoffs? I hear you. If Jalen Ramsey wants to @ me, he can. I get where he's coming from.
The Jags absolutely have the talent to be in the first group. They sit here instead because their division looks much tougher than those of the two AFC teams in the top group and because, unlike the four teams up there, they've never won the thing. But there's no reason to think last year was a fluke. They got better in the run game by signing elite guard Andrew Norwell, and the run game is their jam. If QB Blake Bortles can find consistency, they're as good as anyone.
So are the Vikings, who look like monsters on both sides of the ball (assuming the offensive line injuries in training camp don't do them in), and the Rams, whose offseason seemed like it must have been influenced by a Sean McVay conference call with Pete Carroll about whether to go for it. The Chargers might be a surprising pick, since they weren't in last year's playoffs -- or any playoffs since 2013 -- but goodness, it feels as if they should have been. Their roster looks as stacked as any in the league. One of these years, Charlie Brown is going to kick that football before Lucy yanks it away.
THE DANGEROUS WILD CARDS
Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers
It's been 19 months since the Super Bowl slipped through a hole in Atlanta's back pocket, and its roster -- ranked this preseason as the second best in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, behind only the Eagles -- hasn't changed all that much. A second season under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has a chance to go more smoothly than the first did, and the young Falcons defense could bounce back and play the way it did during the team's playoff run two seasons ago.
The Packers are getting Aaron Rodgers back from injury, which ... well, it helps their Super Bowl chances exponentially. They have things to figure out at wide receiver, at running back and on defense, but as long as Rodgers' health holds up, the quarterback makes them contenders.
Dallas just went 9 -- 7 in a "down" year with its best offensive player suspended for six games and its second-best offensive player (left tackle Tyron Smith) battling injuries. No reason the Cowboys can't make life difficult for the Eagles in a division that hasn't had a repeat champion in 14 years.
And the Chiefs? Andy Reid seems to have a habit of making the playoffs, and if second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes really is as ready as Reid thinks he is, and if they can find enough answers on defense ... well, go back up to the last section and read that Charlie Brown bit again. It applies to Reid too.
THE OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES
Yeah, Coach Pete's Seahawks were a consideration. And if you want to count on Carroll and Russell Wilson to lift Seattle beyond the external expectations, there are worse bets you could make. But a lot of championship-caliber talent has walked out the door, so it's fair to want to see it before believing it. Thought about the Titans here, but with so much change on the coaching staff and lingering questions at receiver, it feels like they need another year to crack that top 12. Carolina has lost a lot on the offensive line and is changing schemes on offense as well. And I gave some thought to Houston with Deshaun Watson and all those defensive studs coming back, but that division just looks too strong. Of course, look out for the Philly Special: Someone from this group (or someone not even listed here!) could jump up and make this whole exercise look foolish. It could totally happen. But I'll stick with my Dangerous Dozen for now and bet the champion comes from that group when the confetti falls in Atlanta on Feb. 3.
The NFL elite have already revealed themselves
In a cool, quiet hallway off the Seahawks' practice field in early August, coach Pete Carroll cuts off my question about the challenge of balancing a win-now mindset with the need to build and maintain a roster for the future.
"I don't have any idea what that's all about," Carroll says. "You go for everything you can possibly go for every single time you go, forever, until you can't. Maybe people do this 'Oh, maybe we'll win next year' -- I can't imagine. It doesn't register. I can't even relate to the topic."
So ... yeah. Guess we know where Carroll comes down on this issue. This year, like every year, he's going into the season thinking the Seahawks can win the Super Bowl.
He's not alone. Every year, all 32 teams enter the season thinking, on some level, they're going to win the Super Bowl. Even the lowly Browns, winners of one whole game over the past two seasons, have let it cross their minds: "Well, if Pittsburgh has a bad year and Tyrod Taylor breaks out and the defense comes together ..."
Every year, 31 of those teams are wrong.
So what we want to do here is get real -- to narrow it down a bit. Obviously, no matter how optimistic or determined the teams all are, there aren't 32 that can win the big one. This season I'm going to say there are 12. Admittedly, 12 might even be a little generous.
Of course, the Super Bowl LIII champion might not be on this list. After all, had I listed 12 such teams this time last year, I wouldn't have included the Eagles. So I'm fully prepared to look like a fool. But as the early 20th century Swedish statesman Dag Hammarskjold said, "Never, for the sake of peace and quiet, deny your own convictions." He would have been a Vikings fan, I think, had he lived long enough. Which means he'd have liked this list.
THE HEAVY FAVORITES
Eagles, Patriots, Saints, Steelers
These are the real front-runners -- the teams that are going in expecting to win this season's Super Bowl. The teams for whom not winning it would register as a Hangover Part II -- level disappointment.
At this point, the Patriots might as well list the game on the magnetic schedules they give their fans at home openers. The Pats have appeared in three of the past four Super Bowls and won two of them. Their current coach/quarterback combo has won five Super Bowl titles together. They haven't finished a regular season worse than 12-4 since 2009, and the ongoing lack of a legitimate challenger in their own division nearly guarantees them a first-round bye. As long as Tom Brady's slinging, Bill Belichick's scowling and the Jets, Dolphins and Bills are still piecing things together, the Pats belong on the list of favorites.
Now, as Eagles fans will be quick to point out, the Patriots won two of their last three -- but not last season. Yes, the trophy currently resides in Philly, not Foxborough. And you could absolutely pick the Eagles to win it all this year, except that the NFC looks loaded, and teams almost never repeat. Generally, championship teams can't count on the same kinds of breaks and injury luck two years in a row. Which, now that we think about it, could be good news for the Eagles, who had horrendous injury luck last year and still won the whole thing. You can excuse them for believing that they're set up to be the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the Patriots did it 14 years ago.
The Steelers and Saints both have veteran quarterbacks and coaches who've won titles. They have superstar playmakers on offense. And they were both divisional-round losers in January who thought they'd at least get a chance at the conference title games, so they share a desperation about how much longer their window will stay open. Pittsburgh, like New England, doesn't look to have a challenge to worry about inside its division. New Orleans does, but no one else finished top-five in rushing and passing offense last season. The Saints are dangerous.
THE HUNGRY UPSTARTS
Chargers, Jaguars, Rams, Vikings
I know what you're thinking -- or at least what the Jaguars are thinking. How can we put Jacksonville in this group, behind Pittsburgh, after the Jags waxed the Steelers twice last season in Pittsburgh, including in the playoffs? I hear you. If Jalen Ramsey wants to @ me, he can. I get where he's coming from.
The Jags absolutely have the talent to be in the first group. They sit here instead because their division looks much tougher than those of the two AFC teams in the top group and because, unlike the four teams up there, they've never won the thing. But there's no reason to think last year was a fluke. They got better in the run game by signing elite guard Andrew Norwell, and the run game is their jam. If QB Blake Bortles can find consistency, they're as good as anyone.
So are the Vikings, who look like monsters on both sides of the ball (assuming the offensive line injuries in training camp don't do them in), and the Rams, whose offseason seemed like it must have been influenced by a Sean McVay conference call with Pete Carroll about whether to go for it. The Chargers might be a surprising pick, since they weren't in last year's playoffs -- or any playoffs since 2013 -- but goodness, it feels as if they should have been. Their roster looks as stacked as any in the league. One of these years, Charlie Brown is going to kick that football before Lucy yanks it away.
THE DANGEROUS WILD CARDS
Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers
It's been 19 months since the Super Bowl slipped through a hole in Atlanta's back pocket, and its roster -- ranked this preseason as the second best in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, behind only the Eagles -- hasn't changed all that much. A second season under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has a chance to go more smoothly than the first did, and the young Falcons defense could bounce back and play the way it did during the team's playoff run two seasons ago.
The Packers are getting Aaron Rodgers back from injury, which ... well, it helps their Super Bowl chances exponentially. They have things to figure out at wide receiver, at running back and on defense, but as long as Rodgers' health holds up, the quarterback makes them contenders.
Dallas just went 9 -- 7 in a "down" year with its best offensive player suspended for six games and its second-best offensive player (left tackle Tyron Smith) battling injuries. No reason the Cowboys can't make life difficult for the Eagles in a division that hasn't had a repeat champion in 14 years.
And the Chiefs? Andy Reid seems to have a habit of making the playoffs, and if second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes really is as ready as Reid thinks he is, and if they can find enough answers on defense ... well, go back up to the last section and read that Charlie Brown bit again. It applies to Reid too.
THE OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES
Yeah, Coach Pete's Seahawks were a consideration. And if you want to count on Carroll and Russell Wilson to lift Seattle beyond the external expectations, there are worse bets you could make. But a lot of championship-caliber talent has walked out the door, so it's fair to want to see it before believing it. Thought about the Titans here, but with so much change on the coaching staff and lingering questions at receiver, it feels like they need another year to crack that top 12. Carolina has lost a lot on the offensive line and is changing schemes on offense as well. And I gave some thought to Houston with Deshaun Watson and all those defensive studs coming back, but that division just looks too strong. Of course, look out for the Philly Special: Someone from this group (or someone not even listed here!) could jump up and make this whole exercise look foolish. It could totally happen. But I'll stick with my Dangerous Dozen for now and bet the champion comes from that group when the confetti falls in Atlanta on Feb. 3.
Farr Be It
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Legatron4
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SF vs Minn
Sea vs Den
Farr Be It
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Titans/ Dolphins should be interesting, as our entire 2014 Defense minus Donald is starting in Miami...plus ‘dola. 
Packers/ Bears will be good tonight.
Packers/ Bears will be good tonight.
fearsomefour
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Minn SF.
Want to see how the Whiners look in a game they should lose.
Mostly want to see how they handle the RB situation with McKinnion down and how their D looks.
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Little amped up today because I am having hip replacement surgery tomorrow. I can watch Rams play in my hospital room and with some good drugs. Hope to see Whiners get stomped. Love Sunday Ticket so I can watch any game I want.
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Elmgrovegnome
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Giants/ Jagwires. I am curious about how Saquon Barkley looks and if the Giants did fix their OLine enough to give the Eagles competition.
JimmyNiners/Viqueens. I just want to see Zimmer's Defense pound the STDs out of that, old porn star banging, weak armed, savior of theirs.
JimmyNiners/Viqueens. I just want to see Zimmer's Defense pound the STDs out of that, old porn star banging, weak armed, savior of theirs.
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Man, it’s like the league is trolling us Rams fans, making us wait until the last bitter moment for us to watch our team start their monumental run to a SB title
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Mine are mostly divisional Games...
49ers @ Vikings: Niners should get gut stomped, with Jimmy G. Saying for 60 minutes “Not the face, not the face.
Redskins @ Cardinals: My first thought was that the Skins should win this game, but then I thought of the resilience of Kirk Cousins, and how he ain’t there anymore. Plus, I don’t remember Sam Bradford ever having a RB like David Johnson. This will be the most healthy the Cards will be all season. D@mn, I wish I could change my pick, flv!!
Hawks @ Broncos: It’s the Russell Wilson show in the Mile High City, but it will get cancelled at some point. Keenum will find WR’s and that defense will penetrate the porous Seattle Oline. Run, Forrest Wilson, Run!
Bears @ Packers: Normally I could care less about this game, but I wonder if Khalil Mack will want to show the world that he was worth the money. Is Rodgers back 100%? I bet on him so he better freakin be!
49ers @ Vikings: Niners should get gut stomped, with Jimmy G. Saying for 60 minutes “Not the face, not the face.
Redskins @ Cardinals: My first thought was that the Skins should win this game, but then I thought of the resilience of Kirk Cousins, and how he ain’t there anymore. Plus, I don’t remember Sam Bradford ever having a RB like David Johnson. This will be the most healthy the Cards will be all season. D@mn, I wish I could change my pick, flv!!
Hawks @ Broncos: It’s the Russell Wilson show in the Mile High City, but it will get cancelled at some point. Keenum will find WR’s and that defense will penetrate the porous Seattle Oline. Run, Forrest Wilson, Run!
Bears @ Packers: Normally I could care less about this game, but I wonder if Khalil Mack will want to show the world that he was worth the money. Is Rodgers back 100%? I bet on him so he better freakin be!
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majrleaged
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