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2015 NFL Free Agency: Sorry wide receivers, but it's a buyer's market
February 27, 2015 1:54 pm ET
By Jason LaCanfora
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...-sorry-wide-receivers-but-its-a-buyers-market
I'm not sure it's the best time in the world to be a free agent wide receiver. Yes, there are only a precious few quality options at that position in free agency right now, but, man, that could be changing with a host of receivers, many of them aging receivers, carrying bloated contracts. There still could be a salary-cap bloodletting to come among the pass catchers in this league.
In the past we've seen spending at certain positions become stagnant after a bevy of veterans flooded the market by being released near the start of free agency. Two years ago it happened at the corner position -- that market started to rebound last year -- and as one pours over receiver contracts around the league it becomes clear that there are more moves and machinations to come prior to the start of the league year in less than two weeks. Talks are ongoing between several big-name receivers and their current clubs, and several of them will be floated via trade prior to their eventual release.
It's quite difficult to complete a trade like that, because, of course, the rest of the NFL knows exactly what's going on as well and no one is interested in doing a favor to take on an out-of-whack contract when clubs know if they just wait for his release they can sign him at a reduced rate. Moving these kind of deals won't be easy. A year ago, if you recall, the Eagles ended up just walking away from DeSean Jackson after being unable to find a suitable deal, and he ended up staying in the NFC East, with rival Washington, putting up two big games against them and helping clinch Philadelphia's fate as a non-playoff team. Such is life in the NFL.
So while it's been quiet in terms of receiver transactions thus far, stay tuned. Smart teams -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England -- to name a few, would rather sign released veterans in free agency (who don't count against the clubs in the equation for compensatory picks), often getting a bargain in the process. There is less risk involved than with setting the market and overspending in the first wave of free agency of players with expiring contracts, and there will be more trade and contract discussions to come. There are simply too many receivers who don't make sense for their current teams at their current price.
Mike Wallace: According to numerous general managers, the only name being actively shopped right now is Miami's Mike Wallace, which comes as no surprise as the Dolphins were gauging interest in him and exploring trade possibilities a year ago as well, after Wallace's first turbulent season with the club. Moving Wallace's outsized contract ($12M/year) -- $8.5M of his base salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 13 and no way is that going to happen in Miami -- could prove to be impossible but the Dolphins are searching. Wallace might have a hard time getting half of his current average salary per season on the open market and I continue to hear he's interested in a return to Pittsburgh, though it remains to be seen how the Steelers feel about that. Miami has already cut loose veteran receiver Brian Hartline, who also signed a big deal two years ago.
Vincent Jackson: Tampa shopped Vincent Jackson before the trade deadline and while they might still be open to dealing him, they haven't restarted that process yet, sources said, and at this point it looks like he'll be back. Jackson will not agree to a pay cut, sources said, and the Bucs have plenty of cap space and need all the assets they can get, especially with it looking more and more like a done deal that they draft quarterback Jameis Winston first overall. Jackson has a $10M base and $12.2M cap hit, and while his role in the offense dipped at times last season, with uncertainty at quarterback, I suspect he is one guy from this group who sticks around. But I'm sure there are three to four teams who would be interested in him for sure.
Andre Johnson: Johnson is once again determining a sense of where the organization is going, how close they are to winning, and where he fits in. Things got a little testy last year, with Johnson wanting a trade, and while it has gone on under the surface this season, the reality is Johnson is not getting any younger and carries a hefty $10.5M base salary and $16M cap number. Just converting his base salary to bonus and pushing the cap burden into the future might not be what's best for Houston, while Johnson is no longer the go-to receiver there. I'm not convinced his future is in Houston, but time will tell.
Percy Harvin: Harvin will not accept a pay cut of any sort to stay with the Jets, and several teams covet him on a short-term deal. Even more telling is New York really can't afford to pay him $10M this season. Trading Harvin on his current contract would be impossible, and this continues to look like an imminent release. And while the Chiefs lack weapons as well on offense as it stands, paying Dwayne Bowe $11M with a $14M cap hit at a time when the club is desperate for cap space is a luxury they can't afford. Maybe Bowe takes a cut to stay -- the money that will be there for him on the open market won't be close to what he's scheduled to make after some down years in Kansas City--– but this situation will come to a head one way or the other.
Brandon Marshall: Do the Bears still really want Brandon Marshall? The regime that acquired and signed him is gone, last season was a wreck on offense, Marshall's long had a connection with quarterback Jay Cutler -- who may be on the outs himself -- and new coach John Fox wants to clean up the locker room and hasn't exactly committed to having the receiver on the team next year. Marshall's trade value has dipped through the years, but I wouldn't discount a team or two being interested should Chicago start making calls. If teams called the Bears, it's not like they wouldn't pick up the phone. Marshall is due $8M this season and the Bears are going to have to extend Alshon Jeffery at some point as well. If Fox and rookie GM Ryan Pace want to start putting their fingerprints on the roster, this is one way to start the process.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers still have issues to sort through themselves. Do they want to pay Anquan Boldin $6M for this season (including game-day bonuses)? Half that figure ($3M) becomes guaranteed this spring if he is still on the roster. Stevie Johnson will hit the market as well, with a staggering $5.5M due to him this season, and Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd are free agents. I wouldn't be surprised if only one of that group, at most, is back there next season.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints very much want to keep Marques Colston at a reduced salary (his current $7M base salary isn't going to fly anywhere) but will the cap-strapped team be able to make that happen? I wouldn't bet against it. Are the Vikings content to pay a declining Greg Jennings another $9M this season? He's a tremendous pro and invaluable as a leader and mentor on a young offense, but that contract has long stuck out as one where the player and agent got the best of the team.
Final thoughts
And, if the bulk of this group ends up on the open market, it certainly won't help the earning potential of guys like Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb, who look like the best options available in unrestricted free agency, assuming they don't sign extensions before March 12. Suddenly, there could be many more options and many more price points on the market, and I have no doubt that at the very least, three or four big name receivers end up available for teams to bid on. It's inevitable in this league that contract churn will be high -- and that a few years after doling out huge contracts those same teams will be looking to move on from them -- and the receiver position will see no shortage of movement as we creep toward the league year.
February 27, 2015 1:54 pm ET
By Jason LaCanfora
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...-sorry-wide-receivers-but-its-a-buyers-market
I'm not sure it's the best time in the world to be a free agent wide receiver. Yes, there are only a precious few quality options at that position in free agency right now, but, man, that could be changing with a host of receivers, many of them aging receivers, carrying bloated contracts. There still could be a salary-cap bloodletting to come among the pass catchers in this league.
In the past we've seen spending at certain positions become stagnant after a bevy of veterans flooded the market by being released near the start of free agency. Two years ago it happened at the corner position -- that market started to rebound last year -- and as one pours over receiver contracts around the league it becomes clear that there are more moves and machinations to come prior to the start of the league year in less than two weeks. Talks are ongoing between several big-name receivers and their current clubs, and several of them will be floated via trade prior to their eventual release.
It's quite difficult to complete a trade like that, because, of course, the rest of the NFL knows exactly what's going on as well and no one is interested in doing a favor to take on an out-of-whack contract when clubs know if they just wait for his release they can sign him at a reduced rate. Moving these kind of deals won't be easy. A year ago, if you recall, the Eagles ended up just walking away from DeSean Jackson after being unable to find a suitable deal, and he ended up staying in the NFC East, with rival Washington, putting up two big games against them and helping clinch Philadelphia's fate as a non-playoff team. Such is life in the NFL.
So while it's been quiet in terms of receiver transactions thus far, stay tuned. Smart teams -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England -- to name a few, would rather sign released veterans in free agency (who don't count against the clubs in the equation for compensatory picks), often getting a bargain in the process. There is less risk involved than with setting the market and overspending in the first wave of free agency of players with expiring contracts, and there will be more trade and contract discussions to come. There are simply too many receivers who don't make sense for their current teams at their current price.
Mike Wallace: According to numerous general managers, the only name being actively shopped right now is Miami's Mike Wallace, which comes as no surprise as the Dolphins were gauging interest in him and exploring trade possibilities a year ago as well, after Wallace's first turbulent season with the club. Moving Wallace's outsized contract ($12M/year) -- $8.5M of his base salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 13 and no way is that going to happen in Miami -- could prove to be impossible but the Dolphins are searching. Wallace might have a hard time getting half of his current average salary per season on the open market and I continue to hear he's interested in a return to Pittsburgh, though it remains to be seen how the Steelers feel about that. Miami has already cut loose veteran receiver Brian Hartline, who also signed a big deal two years ago.
Vincent Jackson: Tampa shopped Vincent Jackson before the trade deadline and while they might still be open to dealing him, they haven't restarted that process yet, sources said, and at this point it looks like he'll be back. Jackson will not agree to a pay cut, sources said, and the Bucs have plenty of cap space and need all the assets they can get, especially with it looking more and more like a done deal that they draft quarterback Jameis Winston first overall. Jackson has a $10M base and $12.2M cap hit, and while his role in the offense dipped at times last season, with uncertainty at quarterback, I suspect he is one guy from this group who sticks around. But I'm sure there are three to four teams who would be interested in him for sure.
Andre Johnson: Johnson is once again determining a sense of where the organization is going, how close they are to winning, and where he fits in. Things got a little testy last year, with Johnson wanting a trade, and while it has gone on under the surface this season, the reality is Johnson is not getting any younger and carries a hefty $10.5M base salary and $16M cap number. Just converting his base salary to bonus and pushing the cap burden into the future might not be what's best for Houston, while Johnson is no longer the go-to receiver there. I'm not convinced his future is in Houston, but time will tell.
Percy Harvin: Harvin will not accept a pay cut of any sort to stay with the Jets, and several teams covet him on a short-term deal. Even more telling is New York really can't afford to pay him $10M this season. Trading Harvin on his current contract would be impossible, and this continues to look like an imminent release. And while the Chiefs lack weapons as well on offense as it stands, paying Dwayne Bowe $11M with a $14M cap hit at a time when the club is desperate for cap space is a luxury they can't afford. Maybe Bowe takes a cut to stay -- the money that will be there for him on the open market won't be close to what he's scheduled to make after some down years in Kansas City--– but this situation will come to a head one way or the other.
Brandon Marshall: Do the Bears still really want Brandon Marshall? The regime that acquired and signed him is gone, last season was a wreck on offense, Marshall's long had a connection with quarterback Jay Cutler -- who may be on the outs himself -- and new coach John Fox wants to clean up the locker room and hasn't exactly committed to having the receiver on the team next year. Marshall's trade value has dipped through the years, but I wouldn't discount a team or two being interested should Chicago start making calls. If teams called the Bears, it's not like they wouldn't pick up the phone. Marshall is due $8M this season and the Bears are going to have to extend Alshon Jeffery at some point as well. If Fox and rookie GM Ryan Pace want to start putting their fingerprints on the roster, this is one way to start the process.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers still have issues to sort through themselves. Do they want to pay Anquan Boldin $6M for this season (including game-day bonuses)? Half that figure ($3M) becomes guaranteed this spring if he is still on the roster. Stevie Johnson will hit the market as well, with a staggering $5.5M due to him this season, and Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd are free agents. I wouldn't be surprised if only one of that group, at most, is back there next season.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints very much want to keep Marques Colston at a reduced salary (his current $7M base salary isn't going to fly anywhere) but will the cap-strapped team be able to make that happen? I wouldn't bet against it. Are the Vikings content to pay a declining Greg Jennings another $9M this season? He's a tremendous pro and invaluable as a leader and mentor on a young offense, but that contract has long stuck out as one where the player and agent got the best of the team.
Final thoughts
And, if the bulk of this group ends up on the open market, it certainly won't help the earning potential of guys like Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb, who look like the best options available in unrestricted free agency, assuming they don't sign extensions before March 12. Suddenly, there could be many more options and many more price points on the market, and I have no doubt that at the very least, three or four big name receivers end up available for teams to bid on. It's inevitable in this league that contract churn will be high -- and that a few years after doling out huge contracts those same teams will be looking to move on from them -- and the receiver position will see no shortage of movement as we creep toward the league year.
