For those fearing all the QBs will be gone by #15

[Stel]

They might be, but I doubt it. Of course, my biggest doubt is that we will take a QB in the first round (and that makes me sad). But back to my point. Don't assume all the QBs will be gone. While QB is important (at least to every team but the Rams), none of the ones in this draft are that elusive "once in a decade" prospect and there are some very good players in this draft at other positions of importance.

My view, the important spots on a team, in order, are QB, LOT, disruptive defensive pressure (RDE or 3-4 rush LB), CB (the shut down variety), and WR (the #1 type). Those tend to be the players teams look for in the first half of the first round. In this draft, you have DE Bosa, Buckner, and Lawson; OT Tunsil and Stanley; CB Ramsey, Alexander, and Hargreaves; WR Treadwell, LB Jack. Most of these will go before we select.

Fourteen teams pick ahead of us and not all of them have QB as the pressing need. Let's look at the teams.

1. Tennessee. No need for a QB. New coach. Their situation would indicate a desire to trade down for at least one more premium pick (day 2 pick or future 1st round).
2. Cleveland. Their annual need for a QB. New coach. I'm guessing they take a QB that fits what their new coach wants to do. Likely frees up Manziel - someone will take a shot.
3. San Diego. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. Another trade down to acquire an extra premium pick.
4. Dallas. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. Dallas wants to compete now and I think is a prime trade down candidate.
5. Jacksonville. No need for a QB.
6. Baltimore. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB.
7. San Francisco. New coach and I'm guessing he'll take his QB. Would free up at least one possible starter for another team.
8. Miami. No immediate need for a QB. New coach.
9. Tampa Bay. No immediate need for a QB. New coach.
10. New York Giants. Aging veteran QB. New coach. Huge commitment to Manning going forward makes first round QB highly unlikely.
11. Chicago. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. They have several premium needs and are unlikely to take a QB in the first round.
12. New Orleans. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. Could change if Payton leaves.
13. Philadelphia. Bradford an FA. New coach. I'm guessing they'd take a QB if the right one is there. Bradford will be a starter somewhere.
14. Oakland. No need for a QB.

The way I see it, three teams are likely to lean toward a first round QB: Cleveland, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. All have new coaches and an need at QB. Several more teams have aging vets and would not pass on a QB who was their highest rated player (but I think are unlikely to take a QB): San Diego, Dallas, Baltimore, Chicago, and New Orleans.

I see only four QBs that could go in the first half of the first round: Goff, Lynch, Wentz, and Cook. HIstory tells us that it is unlikely all four (or even three) are taken before we pick at #15. In the past 10 drafts, only once have four QBs been taken in the first 14 selections. Twice three have been taken. The average is just under 2 QBs in the first 14 picks. Eighteen total in the last ten drafts, and at least half of those selections have either not lived up to their draft position or have been outright busts.

The bottom line, there are some far safer picks in the early part of this draft than QBs, and teams not in dire need will likely pass on a QB and take one of the premium players at one of the key positions.

Sorry this got so long. Just my thoughts.

 

[ramfan46]

They might be, but I doubt it. Of course, my biggest doubt is that we will take a QB in the first round (and that makes me sad). But back to my point. Don't assume all the QBs will be gone. While QB is important (at least to every team but the Rams), none of the ones in this draft are that elusive "once in a decade" prospect and there are some very good players in this draft at other positions of importance.

My view, the important spots on a team, in order, are QB, LOT, disruptive defensive pressure (RDE or 3-4 rush LB), CB (the shut down variety), and WR (the #1 type). Those tend to be the players teams look for in the first half of the first round. In this draft, you have DE Bosa, Buckner, and Lawson; OT Tunsil and Stanley; CB Ramsey, Alexander, and Hargreaves; WR Treadwell, LB Jack. Most of these will go before we select.

Fourteen teams pick ahead of us and not all of them have QB as the pressing need. Let's look at the teams.

1. Tennessee. No need for a QB. New coach. Their situation would indicate a desire to trade down for at least one more premium pick (day 2 pick or future 1st round).
2. Cleveland. Their annual need for a QB. New coach. I'm guessing they take a QB that fits what their new coach wants to do. Likely frees up Manziel - someone will take a shot.
3. San Diego. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. Another trade down to acquire an extra premium pick.
4. Dallas. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. Dallas wants to compete now and I think is a prime trade down candidate.
5. Jacksonville. No need for a QB.
6. Baltimore. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB.
7. San Francisco. New coach and I'm guessing he'll take his QB. Would free up at least one possible starter for another team.
8. Miami. No immediate need for a QB. New coach.
9. Tampa Bay. No immediate need for a QB. New coach.
10. New York Giants. Aging veteran QB. New coach. Huge commitment to Manning going forward makes first round QB highly unlikely.
11. Chicago. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. They have several premium needs and are unlikely to take a QB in the first round.
12. New Orleans. Aging veteran QB but no immediate need to take a QB. Could change if Payton leaves.
13. Philadelphia. Bradford an FA. New coach. I'm guessing they'd take a QB if the right one is there. Bradford will be a starter somewhere.
14. Oakland. No need for a QB.

The way I see it, three teams are likely to lean toward a first round QB: Cleveland, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. All have new coaches and an need at QB. Several more teams have aging vets and would not pass on a QB who was their highest rated player (but I think are unlikely to take a QB): San Diego, Dallas, Baltimore, Chicago, and New Orleans.

I see only four QBs that could go in the first half of the first round: Goff, Lynch, Wentz, and Cook. HIstory tells us that it is unlikely all four (or even three) are taken before we pick at #15. In the past 10 drafts, only once have four QBs been taken in the first 14 selections. Twice three have been taken. The average is just under 2 QBs in the first 14 picks. Eighteen total in the last ten drafts, and at least half of those selections have either not lived up to their draft position or have been outright busts.

The bottom line, there are some far safer picks in the early part of this draft than QBs, and teams not in dire need will likely pass on a QB and take one of the premium players at one of the key positions.

Sorry this got so long. Just my thoughts.

Very thoughtful post. I just feel like Cleveland, SF and PHI are automatic QB hunters at this point with new coaches coming into all of those spots. If people are drafting just based off of talent and staying true to their board, a guy could fall right to the Rams. I feel really good about how Snisher navigate the draft though. That extra 2 from PHI could be exactly the chip they need to help make a deal to get the guy they like. I almost hope Wentz bombs at the Senior Bowl to slow his hype down. This won't be popular, but I only like Wentz and Hogan in this group so far. I'm sure more than that will be successful, that's just my feel. To be clear I only like Hogan in the 3rd or 4th. Wentz at 15 would make me as happy as Gurley at 10 or Donald at 13.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Of course if the Jets or Texans fell in love with a kid, they could always trade up ahead of the Rams at #15.:mrburnsevil:

 

[jrry32]

Of course if the Jets or Texans fell in love with a kid, they could always trade up ahead of the Rams at #15.:mrburnsevil:

This is true. Which is why the Rams need to go get themselves a Jared Goff...as you recommended, Memphis.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

First, you are assuming the Rams like all four better than Mannion. They may covet one or two and not like the rest.

It is also possible they try to land a veteran free agent and stick with developing Mannion, because they don't want to give up picks.

I hate to see the Rams give up a lot of picks to move up, but I want them to get their guy instead of accepting whatever comes their way.

One thing for sure is that this will be an interesting off-season.

 

[tahoe]

We can hope that Dallas will sign either RGIII or Manziel so that they wont need a QB, then san fran will keep keaperprick so they wont need a QB, and that Philly resigns Bradford. Then the rams would hopefully get the second best QB prospect.

 

[thirteen28]

I'll wait to see how things play out, but as things stand now, I'd feel more comfortable trading up a few spots, at least into the top 10. I don't think all four will go in the top 10.

Really hoping Philly re-signs Bradford now - or that Bradford goes to one of the teams needing a QB.

That being said, I hope the OP is right.

 

[Ram_Rally]

I think wentz will be there if he first explode in the senior bowl and combine

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I'll wait to see how things play out, but as things stand now, I'd feel more comfortable trading up a few spots, at least into the top 10. I don't think all four will go in the top 10.

Really hoping Philly re-signs Bradford now - or that Bradford goes to one of the teams needing a QB.

That being said, I hope the OP is right.

Maybe Bradford to Dallas makes sense.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I think wentz will be there if he first explode in the senior bowl and combine

@Memphis Ram claims that some people are saying that there are teams that already have Wentz as their number one rated QB. It is early going into the offseason for that, but it is not a good sign if the Rams are hoping he would be there at 15.

 

[Ram_Rally]

@Memphis Ram claims that some people are saying that there are teams that already have Wentz as their number one rated QB. It is early going into the offseason for that, but it is not a good sign if the Rams are hoping he would be there at 15.

Depends who the teams are. Seattle had gurley as the best prospect in the draft. But they weren't picking ahead of us. im okay with staying put. If there's a run on the qb position then elite talent will fall

 

[Merlin]

Dallas is going to take a QB. I think we can bank that, because as good as their QB is he is old and cannot stay healthy. Even Romo saw the writing on the wall and said he's good with them taking one of those guys.

I think if I am Snead I would open some conversations with the Chargers re: Rivers. They are positioned to rebuild behind a new QB and are in great position to take one, so I suspect Rivers might be on the block even if unofficially. Pretty much the same deal with New Orleans, where they might decide to take a young QB and maximize return on their veteran if the right guy is there at their pick.

But the following teams are legitimately QB risks for the Rams in this draft:

2. Cleveland. Undeniable.
4. Dallas. Mentioned above, very likely to go QB.
7. San Francisco. Undeniable, unless they hire Kelly then all bets are off. 90% they take Goff IMO since he is a 9er fan and wears 16.
11. Chicago. Fox is not a moron, he knows long-term he does not have his QB.
13. Philadelphia. Undeniable. If they franchise or keep Bradford they still would be wise to take a QB.

I think there's a very good chance that Lynch, Wentz, and Goff are off the board by 15. As to Cook, I suspect he might slide due to him passing on the Senior Bowl IF the rumors on his personality have any truth to them which NFL teams will verify. So right now, I do think he has a good chance of being there at 15.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Depends who the teams are. Seattle had gurley as the best prospect in the draft. But they weren't picking ahead of us. im okay with staying put. If there's a run on the qb position then elite talent will fall

I would have that view in some situations but not all. The Rams need a good Qb to take the next step. It makes all the difference. The Seahawks were nothing without Wilson, the Raiders were going nowhere without Carr. The Rams need a good QB period. I don't think they can sit and hope for one to fall. If they have to trade up for one at least their future first round picks wont be top ten picks.......or they shouldn't be. If they make the playoffs the picks will be in the 20s, so they wont be losing that much. Will it hurt? Sure it will but, the roster is looking to be in good shape. WR and TE are the biggest needs after QB. Then I'd say DE and MLB. If they keep upgrading everywhere but QB they will be good enough to not ever being close to get a good one. I know that every now and then a guy like Wilson comes along in round 3 but not often enough.

A lot will depend on everyone else and how the Rams evaluate some of this QB talent. But right now it is not looking like they get a QB without making a move.....and not getting one is not a very good option, despite the possibility of landing an elite talent.............unless of course they are convinced that they have something in Mannion.

 

[FRO]

I think Dallas goes after Manziel freeing up a potential QB spot.

 

[Athos]

I just cannot see 3 or 4 QBs going the first 10 picks in this draft. Just don't see it.

I personally love this QB draft class, but teams inside the top 8 aren't going to pass on Bosa (DAL could use Bosa), prime LT (Tunsil), LB (Jack), WR (Treadwell), CB (Ramsey), CB (Hargreaves), and RB (Elliot) after Gurley proved the 1st round RB worthiness isn't a lost cause and Elliot is very good.

Every oen of the teams ahead of us could use those players as well. DAL needs to win now. They either trade down or take a top non-QB talent.

 

[Ram_Rally]

I would have that view in some situations but not all. The Rams need a good Qb to take the next step. It makes all the difference. The Seahawks were nothing without Wilson, the Raiders were going nowhere without Carr. The Rams need a good QB period. I don't think they can sit and hope for one to fall. If they have to trade up for one at least their future first round picks wont be top ten picks.......or they shouldn't be. If they make the playoffs the picks will be in the 20s, so they wont be losing that much. Will it hurt? Sure it will but, the roster is looking to be in good shape. WR and TE are the biggest needs after QB. Then I'd say DE and MLB. If they keep upgrading everywhere but QB they will be good enough to not ever being close to get a good one. I know that every now and then a guy like Wilson comes along in round 3 but not often enough.

A lot will depend on everyone else and how the Rams evaluate some of this QB talent. But right now it is not looking like they get a QB without making a move.....and not getting one is not a very good option, despite the possibility of landing an elite talent.............unless of course they are convinced that they have something in Mannion.

One thing we can both agree on is that this qb limbo has gotten really annoying lol

 

[LACHAMP46]

I think Dallas goes after Manziel freeing up a potential QB spot.

Or RGIII

 

[Merlin]

I just cannot see 3 or 4 QBs going the first 10 picks in this draft. Just don't see it.

I personally love this QB draft class, but teams inside the top 8 aren't going to pass on Bosa (DAL could use Bosa), prime LT (Tunsil), LB (Jack), WR (Treadwell), CB (Ramsey), CB (Hargreaves), and RB (Elliot) after Gurley proved the 1st round RB worthiness isn't a lost cause and Elliot is very good.

Well, look at Dallas for example and let's say they don't go QB and make the playoffs next season. Then what? Romo is a brittle QB who is now another year older and they're picking late in the 2017 draft. Timing is key. Dallas is not going to expect to be in this real estate often. QBs are there.

Yeah, they might pass on them, but if I am a GM who needs a QB there is no way I expect that. I move up and get the guy who I am certain will fit and take my offense forward.

 

[Stel]

I just cannot see 3 or 4 QBs going the first 10 picks in this draft. Just don't see it.

I personally love this QB draft class, but teams inside the top 8 aren't going to pass on Bosa (DAL could use Bosa), prime LT (Tunsil), LB (Jack), WR (Treadwell), CB (Ramsey), CB (Hargreaves), and RB (Elliot) after Gurley proved the 1st round RB worthiness isn't a lost cause and Elliot is very good.

Every oen of the teams ahead of us could use those players as well. DAL needs to win now. They either trade down or take a top non-QB talent.

Maybe I didn't make that clear in my original post. There are other players, non QBs, that are at least as good of prospects, maybe even elite prospects, than the QBs. I don't view any of these QBs as Andrew Luck 2.0. I don't see any of these QBs as being the best player in the draft. I don't think any of them are ahead of Mariota or Winston as prospects. QBs will go early because they are QBs but they won't push out all of the other talent.

Cleveland will likely take a QB unless the owner makes the new coach go with Manziel. Personally, I think they're all tired of him and he's cut loose. Someone will take a chance on Manziel.

I will be surprised if Dallas takes a QB at #4. They'll want someone who can contribute immediately or, more likely, a trade partner to trade down. Can't see them using #4 on a player who may not see the field for a couple of years. Romo is nearly $32 mil in dead money for 2016, more than $19 mil for 2017. He is there QB and they'll be looking for a back up or a developmental QB, not a first rounder.

San Francisco looks like a lock to take a QB given they have a new coach. However, don't lose sight of the fact that Kaepernick is more than $7 mil in dead money and Gabbert is still under contract. Depends on their new coach, but I'm guessing at least one is on the market and someone will take a chance on him.

Philadelphia will likely be in the market for a QB if they don't resign Bradford.

Cleveland, San Fran, and Philly are the three most likely to be looking QB but that doesn't mean they take one.

Bradford, Cousins and McCoy are all UFAs. RGIII, Kaepernick, Gabbert, and Manziel could all be on the market and have an affect on what other teams do. Until the FA period is over, the whole "who takes a QB" discussion will remain foggy.

 

[Stel]

Just looked at the cbssports.com's updated prospect rankings. Lot of movement over the last few weeks, by the way. Their QB rankings are starting to make more sense.
4. Goff
11. Lynch
27. Wentz (I think he'll climb more - 12-20 range)
44. Cook (good candidate for good team with aging vet)
62. Hackenberg (someone will try to fix him).

No one else in the top 64. Coker has moved up a lot, Hogan a little. Both now shown as early day 3 prospects. Most of these rankings are about right, IMO, at least within half a round of where I think they'll be taken.