Football Outsiders Have the Rams as Clear Favorites over Minnesota

[RamBill]

Aaron Schatz joined Kevin Wheeler to talk about the Rams, their success, the NFC West, and the rest of the playoff race in the NFC. Schatz tells why he and Football Outsiders have the Rams as clear favorites over Minnesota.

Listen to Schatz Talk Rams/NFL

 

[rking4441]

Great information in this interview. Please don't let the Vikes fans listen to Aaron Schatz since they would be pissed. For those who haven't listened he says their calculations has the Rams with a 47% chance to make the playoff and that is 33% at wildcard and 14% chance to win the division. On his comments about the Vikes he says they have them rated as the 27 best team in the league. He states a multitude of reasons that include having played the weakest schedule in the NFL so far (that's about to change).

They do say that the Rams, in their calculation, are favored to beat the Vikes even on the road. Should be a hard fought close game this weekend, but I wouldn't be upset if the Rams win by 10+ Pts.

 

[Prime Time]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ds-predictions-and-advice-for-ideal-underdogs

St. Louis Rams/Minnesota Vikings/ MIN -2.5/ 20-17 STL

St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings

Billy Hurst/Associated Press

The St. Louis Rams started the season looking like the same old Rams. After piquing everyone's curiosity with a victory over the Seattle Seahawks, they faltered against Washington. So begins the path to another 7-9 season with an underwhelming quarterback sinking the ship.

Then Todd Gurley showed up.

An early scratch while rehabbing a torn ACL, the rookie running back has registered 566 rushing yards over his last four games, eclipsing over 125 yards each time. The Rams have deposited 85 points during this stretch, with their only loss coming at Green Bay.

The Minnesota Vikings, who know a thing or two ago about transcendent running backs carrying a team, are presented the unenviable task of slowing Gurley down. Minnesota cornerback Captain Munnerlyn marveled over the rookie rusher to the Pioneer Press' Chris Tomasson.

"This guy, Todd Gurley, he's special," Munnerlyn said. "He's Adrian Peterson all over again. ... People don't realize how big he is. ... He can hit you with the home-run speed. He's a young Adrian Peterson, but I like our Adrian Peterson better."

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...cks-eagles-over-cowboys-raiders-stun-steelers

Vikings fans have a lot to smile about this year. (Instagram/blondy814)

St. Louis (4-3) at Minnesota (5-2), 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

If you would've told me before the season started that the Vikings-Rams game in Week 9 would be one of only two games on the schedule that features two teams with a winning record, I would've probably not listened to anything you said because you're a stranger and I probably thought it would've been crazy for you to be telling me about something that was going to happen nine weeks into the future.

Anyway, these two teams are so evenly matched, it's scary. The defenses basically cancel each other (Ranked 6th and 7th in the NFL). Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson basically cancel each other out, so basically, this game comes down to who has the better quarterback and let's just say that when Nick Foles is playing in a game, he's not the better quarterback about 95 percent of the time.

The Pick: Vikings 20-17 over Rams.

http://www.foxsports.com/whatifsports/nfl/story/nfl-predictions-week-9-110315

St. Louis Rams 22 @ Minnesota Vikings 23

Game simulation has Vikings winning 19-17. AP picks up 110 yds on 22 carries with 0 TD's. Todd Gurley picks up 59 yds on 15 carries with 0 TD's. The Rams get 2 sacks one by Jake McQuaide the long-snapper, lol.

 

[Big Willie]

I get scared anytime people start picking my teams to win...that is usually a recipe for my disappointment.

 

[jap]

I get scared anytime people start picking my teams to win...that is usually a recipe for my disappointment.

Well, the difference is we have a genuine stabilizing force now in TGII and Tavon. Fish supposedly has gotten together with Cigs and the offensive coaches to craft/tweak new plays to build around our two play makers. However, more play makers on offense would be truly welcome.

 

[ChrisW]

Game simulation has Vikings winning 19-17. AP picks up 110 yds on 22 carries with 0 TD's. Todd Gurley picks up 59 yds on 15 carries with 0 TD's. The Rams get 2 sacks one by Jake McQuaide the long-snapper, lol.

That's quite the simulation you have there......

 

[OntarioRam]

We could definitely win this but I don't know how anyone can pick us as "clear" favourites. These teams are extremely similar. Stout defences with poor overall offenses that happen to boast game-changing RBs. Plus, I favor Bridgewater over Foles and the Vikings are at home.

Having said that, I still think the Rams can and will take this game. Minnesota have not looked convincing at all against their lacklustre opposition to date. They got beaten by San Fran and were lucky to sneak by Chicago with a last second field goal. The Rams have shown more than Minny has this year. We've beating Seattle and Arizona, shut down Green Bay (do not forget it was our offense that surrendered many of those points) and Pittsburgh, and defeated lesser teams convincingly.

 

[rking4441]

We could definitely win this but I don't know how anyone can pick us as "clear" favourites. These teams are extremely similar. Stout defences with poor overall offenses that happen to boast game-changing RBs. Plus, I favor Bridgewater over Foles and the Vikings are at home.

Having said that, I still think the Rams can and will take this game. Minnesota have not looked convincing at all against their lacklustre opposition to date. They got beaten by San Fran and were lucky to sneak by Chicago with a last second field goal. The Rams have shown more than Minny has this year. We've beating Seattle and Arizona, shut down Green Bay (do not forget it was our offense that surrendered many of those points) and Pittsburgh, and defeated lesser teams convincingly.

With their analytics they included not just the play of the player/team but the opponent that they perform against. With the Rams having played better opponents their grade is elevated compared to the Vikings who have played lesser opponents. Instead of looking just at the results they are looking at the quality of the opponent the result was produced against. In the end they still need to play, and win!

 

[FrantikRam]

On a neutral field, I think we'd be the favorite hands down.

On paper, I think we're the better team - while they talk up their defense, I think ours is better on every level (when Tree is healthy at least). I know Kendricks and Barr are good, but they're a little on the small side and I think that shows in their YPC allowed...not the best at stopping the run.

BUT - they're at home, and I've watched snippets of every Viking game this year....there is an unquantifiable aura around that team. The ball seems to bounce their way, or when a crucial play needs to be made, it's made. Considering that, I don't feel good about this game. Plus, they'll blitz us all day and our young OL and Foles struggle with that.

 

[DaveFan'51]

Game simulation has Vikings winning 19-17. AP picks up 110 yds on 22 carries with 0 TD's. Todd Gurley picks up 59 yds on 15 carries with 0 TD's. The Rams get 2 sacks one by Jake McQuaide the long-snapper, lol.

This ^ is F---ing Laughable in sooooo many way!!

 

[RAMpage28]

The Vikings SBnation blog had an article using some interesting stats from FO that point to us as well.

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/11/4/9673122/matchup-index-vikings-vs-rams

 

[rking4441]

The Vikings SBnation blog had an article using some interesting stats from FO that point to us as well.

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/11/4/9673122/matchup-index-vikings-vs-rams

This is posted in the "What the Viking Fans are saying". Granted this information was greeted with surprise and incredulity. Hey no shame in being a homer since we all are in some respect.

 

[OntarioRam]

On a neutral field, I think we'd be the favorite hands down.

On paper, I think we're the better team - while they talk up their defense, I think ours is better on every level (when Tree is healthy at least). I know Kendricks and Barr are good, but they're a little on the small side and I think that shows in their YPC allowed...not the best at stopping the run.

BUT - they're at home, and I've watched snippets of every Viking game this year....there is an unquantifiable aura around that team. The ball seems to bounce their way, or when a crucial play needs to be made, it's made. Considering that, I don't feel good about this game. Plus, they'll blitz us all day and our young OL and Foles struggle with that.

That's my biggest concern, and the reason I am not super confident of my prediction of a Rams victory. Our offensive line is not very good to begin with. Minnesota presents a nightmare matchup considering our o-line's weaknesses. We're going to have to lean on the run game even more than usual. When we do throw the ball it will have to come out quick. But for some reason, the team does not seem to want to incorporate short throws to Quick and Britt. Where are the slants? All that said, I still think we pull it out.

 

[RamzFanz]

Anyway, these two teams are so evenly matched, it's scary. The defenses basically cancel each other (Ranked 6th and 7th in the NFL). Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson basically cancel each other out, so basically, this game comes down to who has the better quarterback and let's just say that when Nick Foles is playing in a game, he's not the better quarterback about 95 percent of the time.

Quoting rankings out of context and saying the Ds are equal is just silly. Niners would look good with Vikings' schedule. Gurley and Peterson cancel each other out? Again, out of context. Not against stout defenses they don't. Gurley is about 30%-35% more productive so far.

We all agree Foles has been challenged, but to say a QB with his 3 season w/l starter record of 19 - 7 is outmatched 95% of the time is just moronic.

 

[ChrisW]

As long as Fisher doesn't shit the bed with a terrible game plan, this game will be close with big plays sealing the game. It should be about individual performances. Who's gonna show up?

 

[Big Willie]

Well, the difference is we have a genuine stabilizing force now in TGII and Tavon. Fish supposedly has gotten together with Cigs and the offensive coaches to craft/tweak new plays to build around our two play makers. However, more play makers on offense would be truly welcome.

I am still scared.