Fill up with gas tonight

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Akrasian

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/14/business/saudi-oil-output-impacted-drone-attack/index.html

Abu Dhabi (CNN Business)Drone strikes on key Saudi Arabian oil facilities, among the world's largest and most important energy production centers, have disrupted about half of the kingdom's oil capacity, or 5% of the daily global oil supply.
Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saturday took responsibility for the attacks, saying 10 drones targeted state-owned Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, according to the Houthi-run Al-Masirah news agency.
In a statement on Sunday, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that 5.7 million barrels a day of crude oil and gas production have been affected. The latest OPEC figures from August 2019 put the total Saudi production at 9.8 million barrels per day.
The energy minister said the "company is currently working to recover the lost quantities" of oil and will update the public within the next two days. "These attacks are not only aimed at the vital installations of the kingdom, but also on the global oil supply and its security, and thus pose a threat to the global economy."


The Saudi interior ministry had confirmed that the drone attacks caused fires at the two facilities. In a statement posted on Twitter, the ministry said the fires were under control and that authorities were investigating.
"Abqaiq is perhaps the most critical facility in the world for oil supply. Oil prices will jump on this attack," Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said in a statement.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pinned the attack directly on Iran, which backs the Houthi rebels. "Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen," he said on Twitter.
The development comes as Saudi Aramco takes steps to go public in what could be the world's biggest IPO. Aramco attracted huge interest with its debut international bond sale in April. It commissioned an independent audit of the kingdom's oil reserves and has started publishing earnings. Over the past two weeks, the kingdom has replaced its energy minister and the chairman of Aramco.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has cut back on production of crude and other energy products as part of an OPEC effort to boost prices. Saudi Arabia produces approximately 10% of the total global supply of 100 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency, or IEA, said on Saturday it was monitoring the situation in Saudi Arabia. "We are in contact with Saudi authorities as well as major producer and consumer nations. For now, markets are well supplied with ample commercial stocks," it said on Twitter.
If the disruption in Saudi Arabia is prolonged, "sanctioned Iran supplies are another source of potential additional oil," Bordoff said. "But [US President Donald] Trump has already shown he is willing to pursue a maximum pressure campaign even when oil prices spike. If anything, the risk of tit-for-tat regional escalation that pushes oil prices even higher has gone up significantly."
US Energy Secretary Rick Perry "stands ready" to tap the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserveto steady oil markets if necessary, a department spokesperson said in a statement. The country's emergency oil supply — a series of storage tanks and underground caverns created after the oil crises of the 1970s -- holds 630 million barrels of crude, an Energy Department official said.
Oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent crude, the global price benchmark slipping 0.3% to close at $60.22 per barrel.
-- CNN's Jeremy Diamond, Matt Egan and Sharif Paget contributed to this report.

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I expect a major short term spike in oil prices, so I would recommend filling up before it hits. Be ahead of the panic, basically. It shouldn't last long, unless there are other attacks - which are entirely possible.
 

FaulkSF

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I wouldn't expect too large of a spike. US has enough reserves and can always increase production in places like central California and West Texas to boost reserves.

Prices should normalize within a few weeks. Though if you're into option markets this may be a good time to take a risk on a put for barrel futures.
 

coconut

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This time is different in that the US is a net exporter of oil as well as the world's largest producer of crude oil. So talk of reserves and drawing down the strategic petroleum reserve in particular is unwarranted. But the price hike will be interesting to watch.
 

1maGoh

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I wouldn't expect too large of a spike. US has enough reserves and can always increase production in places like central California and West Texas to boost reserves.

Prices should normalize within a few weeks. Though if you're into option markets this may be a good time to take a risk on a put for barrel futures.
Yeah, facts aren't going to matter with the price hike. Gas/gas station companies keep their personal reserves full when there is cheap gas so they can jack the price up and maximize profit when there's any reason to have expensive gas. It doesn't matter that the gas they have was cheap. If conditions are good for raising the price, they do.

The company I work for supports gas stations. Some of them have told us this in meetings, that they were excited the price of oil was going up because they'd been topping their tanks off with cheap gas and now they could run them low selling cheap gas at an expensive price.
 

FaulkSF

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Yeah, facts aren't going to matter with the price hike. Gas/gas station companies keep their personal reserves full when there is cheap gas so they can jack the price up and maximize profit when there's any reason to have expensive gas. It doesn't matter that the gas they have was cheap. If conditions are good for raising the price, they do.

The company I work for supports gas stations. Some of them have told us this in meetings, that they were excited the price of oil was going up because they'd been topping their tanks off with cheap gas and now they could run them low selling cheap gas at an expensive price.
Thought some of the retailers would be more ethical.

tenor (6).gif
 

RhodyRams

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Thought some of the retailers would be more ethical.

It's all about the bottom line. How do you think shareholders would feel if the companies didnt turn a profit given the chance.

Its like going for it on 4th and goal up by 17 points with less than 2 minutes in the game LOL.
 

Akrasian

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #8
The big retailers all transmit the prices to their local stations based on crude prices, local competition, and educated guesses on what they can get away with. I hope any spikes are temporary - but even if the US is a net exporter right now, the companies will find that they can make more selling internationally - oil is a global product.
 

coconut

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- but even if the US is a net exporter right now, the companies will find that they can make more selling internationally - oil is a global product.
I'd bet against that for domestic crude. At least to cover domestic demand. Any surplus domestic production certainly will be exported unless reserves are to be increased. No way politically domestic supply to cover domestic demand suffers given the tax breaks the industry receives, the effect on the economy and an upcoming presidential election. If anything domestic production of crude will increase to maximize profit while to some extent ameliorating revenue to some so called bad actor producers like Iran, Russia etc.
 

OldSchool

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Today I actually paid 20 cents less a gallon than the last time I filled up.
 

Mackeyser

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Yeah, facts aren't going to matter with the price hike. Gas/gas station companies keep their personal reserves full when there is cheap gas so they can jack the price up and maximize profit when there's any reason to have expensive gas. It doesn't matter that the gas they have was cheap. If conditions are good for raising the price, they do.

The company I work for supports gas stations. Some of them have told us this in meetings, that they were excited the price of oil was going up because they'd been topping their tanks off with cheap gas and now they could run them low selling cheap gas at an expensive price.

It's due to the allowance LIFO accounting...
 

OldSchool

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I don't know what that is, but I'd love to hear about it.


Yeah, it went up 25 cents for low grade here. I don't even look at the other grades.
Last in first out invetory
First in first out is the other method

Basically it dictates inventory control. FIFO is oldest product sold first, usually the dominant in food service or places that deal in perishable products.

LIFO is essentially the opposite.
 

1maGoh

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Last in first out invetory
First in first out is the other method

Basically it dictates inventory control. FIFO is oldest product sold first, usually the dominant in food service or places that deal in perishable products.

LIFO is essentially the opposite.
Ah, his using the word "accounting" threw me off. I thought it was an alternative to GAAP accounting.
 

OldSchool

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Ah, his using the word "accounting" threw me off. I thought it was an alternative to GAAP accounting.
Ahhh yeah it is an accounting principal as well but it's for inventory control :) People worried about the inventory rarely use these terms tbh.
 

Angry Ram

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I wouldn't expect too large of a spike. US has enough reserves and can always increase production in places like central California and West Texas to boost reserves.

Prices should normalize within a few weeks. Though if you're into option markets this may be a good time to take a risk on a put for barrel futures.

Most of the oil in Murica comes for Canada and domestically anyway...
 

Mackeyser

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Ah, his using the word "accounting" threw me off. I thought it was an alternative to GAAP accounting.

Nah, it allows them legally to sell gas, diesel and oil products at today's rate even though there is generally a 9 month lag between today's oil and the final product at the pump.

It's a massive way oil companies screw customers. The price has a weird connection to supply in LIFO.

Especially considering that gas doesn't store well long term (years), the idea that it makes any sense to allow for pricing today's gas based on today's oil prices is silly. If 9 months ago, there was a glut, it may have cost $1.50 to make it and sell it for $2.25 all things being equal.

A refinery goes offline and prices shoot up $1/gal. Why? There's still 9 months in the pipeline before there's ANY change to supply that should affect demand.

With FIFO, any price changes would lag oil events by about 9 months. Even with some allowances to mitigate price spikes, it wouldn't be like it is now.

And don't get me started on the scam of the oil market where oil companies essentially sell to themselves at massively inflated rates...