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http://espn.go.com/blog/eric-karabell-football/insider/post?id=3298
Ask 100 fantasy football owners how they view the term “breakout” and maybe we wouldn’t get 100 different responses, but it’s a bit like the term “sleeper” in that there’s no true definition. If we truly delve into what value means -- and how one might act on the term is perhaps more critical -- we’d likely see that how a football player breaks out depends originally on his baseline expectations. I do think Indianapolis Colts stud Andrew Luck has bigger seasons in front of him, but he’s not a breakout by a normal definition. He’s already awesome. Similarly, the breakout for Jacksonville Jaguars sophomore Blake Bortles, the third overall pick and first passer in the 2014 draft, would be viewed differently.
Let’s make this easy: I’m probably not choosing a quarterback I think will break out for a standard league in the first place. I’m more than satisfied choosing well-established 30-somethings like Dallas Cowboys veteran Tony Romo or New York Giants winner Eli Manning in the 10th round and letting others select the rookies or the Bortles types. But like many of you, I participate in leagues other than those with 10 teams and standard scoring. I’m in dynasty/keeper formats. I’m in a 20-team league in which every starting quarterback and several reserves are chosen. I’ve been in leagues with quarterbacks eligible for the open/utility position (OP in ESPN leagues) and ones with six points for touchdown passes and another with team quarterbacks.
We’ll handle the big three positions for this “breakout” exercise within the next week, and truth be told, my interest level is far more piqued by the running backs and wide receivers who could emerge as fantasy monsters. But we start as always with quarterback, and the assignment is to differentiate from quarterbacks viewed as potentially worth drafting -- the top 20 options -- and those further off the radar. So let’s have some fun with this and truly dream about unexpected statistics coming our way.
QB breakouts: Top 20 version
Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles: This is the obvious one. Bradford has always possessed the skills to be a star, but he’s had a recurring problem remaining upright. The Eagles rescued him from St. Louis, where he had neither the blocking nor the weaponry for success. Now the former first overall selection joins a loaded, smart offense. You know he could be a top-five quarterback. He has the arm and the requisite mobility. This could absolutely work out great. I mean, look what Nick Foles did two seasons ago. Frankly, I’m not even looking at Bradford’s Rams numbers anymore. He couldn’t succeed.
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings: Bridgewater wasn’t asked to do a whole lot as a rookie, but he has the arm strength and accuracy to throw short or long and defenses will certainly need to prepare for the future Hall of Famer he will be handing the football off to as well. I can’t really see Bridgewater approaching 30 touchdown passes, not like Bradford could, but there is upside for 4,000 passing yards.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: He made this list a season ago, for good reason. He’s got the ability. And before you mock the choice, Cutler would have finished as fantasy’s No. 7 quarterback had he scored 24 points in the one contest he missed. In other words, this was very nearly a top-10 guy, despite the 18 interceptions. Hey, trash-time touchdowns count, too, and they're coming again. Cutler hasn’t reached 4,000 passing yards since 2008 in Denver, and he’s never thrown 30 touchdown passes. The loss of rookie Kevin White hardly precludes him from doing so at age 32, especially when one realizes how awful Chicago’s defense appears. Shootout city, ba-by!
QB breakouts: Back-end range
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders:Yeah, rookie Amari Cooper could be that awesome. Carr didn’t impress as a rookie, and he seemed to get quite a few breaks in the interception department, but one difference-making wide receiver could change his fortunes. Remember, if everyone believes a quarterback will break out, then he doesn’t go undrafted like Carr will. And by the way, I’m leaving noted rookies Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans off the list. Too obvious, and they’re already going in the 21-23 range at the position, neither top-20 nor truly back-end range. I don’t want to assume Carr can’t improve. I want to see what he can do with downfield playmakers in a more up-tempo offense. And yeah, I think he has a better chance to break out this season than Blake Bortles, but to be fair, they’re in similar situations.
Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans: Don’t you trust Bill Belichick by now? The New England Patriots made Mallett a third-round pick in 2011, but Tom Bradyremains top-notch, thus there’s little need to groom someone. Now a Texan, Mallett has the size and perhaps the skills to be very good, and even with Andre Johnson gone, he’s got intriguing weapons. Mallett might not even win the starting job over Brian Hoyer, but there’s definite upside if he can figure things out.
Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns: Don’t even look at his rookie numbers. We hope his life is back on track and if it is, let’s remember how talented a player he can be. There’s a reason he’s had on-field success. He’s certainly confident. I doubt he has the weapons around him to truly break out, but I don’t think Josh McCown, absolutely awful last season, is the answer. Presuming Manziel can’t play at the NFL level is short-sighted. We don’t know. I don’t want to outright dismiss it, and in a dynasty format, I’ll take the chance late. Manziel could be just as successful, if not more, than Winston and Mariota, but since they're perceived to have not failed yet, they're thought of differently. Let's be open-minded.
Ask 100 fantasy football owners how they view the term “breakout” and maybe we wouldn’t get 100 different responses, but it’s a bit like the term “sleeper” in that there’s no true definition. If we truly delve into what value means -- and how one might act on the term is perhaps more critical -- we’d likely see that how a football player breaks out depends originally on his baseline expectations. I do think Indianapolis Colts stud Andrew Luck has bigger seasons in front of him, but he’s not a breakout by a normal definition. He’s already awesome. Similarly, the breakout for Jacksonville Jaguars sophomore Blake Bortles, the third overall pick and first passer in the 2014 draft, would be viewed differently.
Let’s make this easy: I’m probably not choosing a quarterback I think will break out for a standard league in the first place. I’m more than satisfied choosing well-established 30-somethings like Dallas Cowboys veteran Tony Romo or New York Giants winner Eli Manning in the 10th round and letting others select the rookies or the Bortles types. But like many of you, I participate in leagues other than those with 10 teams and standard scoring. I’m in dynasty/keeper formats. I’m in a 20-team league in which every starting quarterback and several reserves are chosen. I’ve been in leagues with quarterbacks eligible for the open/utility position (OP in ESPN leagues) and ones with six points for touchdown passes and another with team quarterbacks.
We’ll handle the big three positions for this “breakout” exercise within the next week, and truth be told, my interest level is far more piqued by the running backs and wide receivers who could emerge as fantasy monsters. But we start as always with quarterback, and the assignment is to differentiate from quarterbacks viewed as potentially worth drafting -- the top 20 options -- and those further off the radar. So let’s have some fun with this and truly dream about unexpected statistics coming our way.
QB breakouts: Top 20 version
Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles: This is the obvious one. Bradford has always possessed the skills to be a star, but he’s had a recurring problem remaining upright. The Eagles rescued him from St. Louis, where he had neither the blocking nor the weaponry for success. Now the former first overall selection joins a loaded, smart offense. You know he could be a top-five quarterback. He has the arm and the requisite mobility. This could absolutely work out great. I mean, look what Nick Foles did two seasons ago. Frankly, I’m not even looking at Bradford’s Rams numbers anymore. He couldn’t succeed.
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings: Bridgewater wasn’t asked to do a whole lot as a rookie, but he has the arm strength and accuracy to throw short or long and defenses will certainly need to prepare for the future Hall of Famer he will be handing the football off to as well. I can’t really see Bridgewater approaching 30 touchdown passes, not like Bradford could, but there is upside for 4,000 passing yards.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: He made this list a season ago, for good reason. He’s got the ability. And before you mock the choice, Cutler would have finished as fantasy’s No. 7 quarterback had he scored 24 points in the one contest he missed. In other words, this was very nearly a top-10 guy, despite the 18 interceptions. Hey, trash-time touchdowns count, too, and they're coming again. Cutler hasn’t reached 4,000 passing yards since 2008 in Denver, and he’s never thrown 30 touchdown passes. The loss of rookie Kevin White hardly precludes him from doing so at age 32, especially when one realizes how awful Chicago’s defense appears. Shootout city, ba-by!
QB breakouts: Back-end range
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders:Yeah, rookie Amari Cooper could be that awesome. Carr didn’t impress as a rookie, and he seemed to get quite a few breaks in the interception department, but one difference-making wide receiver could change his fortunes. Remember, if everyone believes a quarterback will break out, then he doesn’t go undrafted like Carr will. And by the way, I’m leaving noted rookies Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans off the list. Too obvious, and they’re already going in the 21-23 range at the position, neither top-20 nor truly back-end range. I don’t want to assume Carr can’t improve. I want to see what he can do with downfield playmakers in a more up-tempo offense. And yeah, I think he has a better chance to break out this season than Blake Bortles, but to be fair, they’re in similar situations.
Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans: Don’t you trust Bill Belichick by now? The New England Patriots made Mallett a third-round pick in 2011, but Tom Bradyremains top-notch, thus there’s little need to groom someone. Now a Texan, Mallett has the size and perhaps the skills to be very good, and even with Andre Johnson gone, he’s got intriguing weapons. Mallett might not even win the starting job over Brian Hoyer, but there’s definite upside if he can figure things out.
Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns: Don’t even look at his rookie numbers. We hope his life is back on track and if it is, let’s remember how talented a player he can be. There’s a reason he’s had on-field success. He’s certainly confident. I doubt he has the weapons around him to truly break out, but I don’t think Josh McCown, absolutely awful last season, is the answer. Presuming Manziel can’t play at the NFL level is short-sighted. We don’t know. I don’t want to outright dismiss it, and in a dynasty format, I’ll take the chance late. Manziel could be just as successful, if not more, than Winston and Mariota, but since they're perceived to have not failed yet, they're thought of differently. Let's be open-minded.
