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Fact or Fiction: Making Sense of Latest Buzz from 2020 NFL Draft's Lying Season
Lying season, smokescreen season—whatever moniker one might prefer, the NFL rumor mill throws it on thick in the week before the draft.
This year's final, exhausting march to draft day will undoubtedly feature whispers about all of the top passers, teams with extra assets looking to move up, teams with a lack of assets hoping to move down and quite a bit more.
It's a good time to step back and play a bit of "fact or fiction" with the top rumblings based on what we know when it comes to each team's goals, the prospect stock market and more.
These are the biggest buzz items about a week out, sorted into fact or fiction breakdowns.
Tune in to our 2020 NFL Draft Show for live, in-depth analysis on what each pick means for your team, with hosts Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller and Connor Rogers. No fluff, no B.S. Download the B/R app and watch starting Thursday, April 23, at 8 p.m. ET.
Jets All Over WR Henry Ruggs III
Verdict: Fact
It's not much of a surprise that the New York Jets would covet the draft's top wideouts.
According to Ralph Vacchiano of SNY, the Jets "love" Alabama wide receiver Henry Ruggs III. That might sound odd considering Ruggs is in direct competition with CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy as the draft's top wideout.
But it isn't that surprising a team might like Ruggs more than the other two. He scored 24 touchdowns over three years at Alabama before checking in at 5'11" and 188 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine and blazing a 4.27-second time in the 40-yard dash.
Those Jets lost No. 1 wideout Robby Anderson in free agency and don't have much of note returning around quarterback Sam Darnold, which is problematic considering the offense didn't have a receiving target hit the 900-yard mark last year.
Schematically speaking, the Jets might like Ruggs' fit the best as a big-play wideout whose speed stretches the field and makes Darnold's life easier. Sitting 11th in the draft order, the Jets might find he's the only top wideout left anyway.
CeeDee Lamb over Jerry Jeudy Is the Consensus
Verdict: Fiction
The debate over the draft's top wideout won't reach a conclusion until the big night.
But new buzz around the league says Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb ranks better than Jerry Jeudy of Alabama, according to a poll conducted by Bob McGinn of The Athletic.
That sort of sounds like what front offices in the top 25 would say if they'd like to see Jeudy fall to them.
While the measurables are similar and both figure to be excellent pros worthy of top-15 picks, Jeudy had to work in an Alabama offense oftentimes missing Tua Tagovailoa and going against SEC defenses. Lamb had the benefit of playing in the defense-lacking Big 12, so the fact that Jeudy is near or past him in most statistical areas says quite a bit.
And when Shannon Sharpe is taking Jeudy over Lamb because of route running, it's best to pay attention.
Falcons Hunting for a Trade Up
Verdict: Fact
On the list of teams that might want to trade up, the Atlanta Falcons stick out in boldface print.
That's something the Falcons like doing—remember the move up for Julio Jones in 2011? Sprinkle in some desperation this year, and things could get interesting.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Falcons might be considering such a move again.
It's not hard to see why. One could suggest Atlanta's window is closing. Since going to the Super Bowl in 2016, the Falcons have regressed every season and just went 7-9 for the second year in a row. Matt Ryan will be 35 years old in May. Ryan and Jones make up 20 percent of the team's cap hit in 2020.
With a value buy like Todd Gurley in free agency and presumably better health defensively, it's easy to think the Falcons could sacrifice longer-term assets like draft picks in a win-now move to get an impact defender like Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons.
Given the perceived championship window, an aggressive approach by the Falcons to guarantee themselves a prospect they really like could be one of the better moves of the first round.
Tua Set to Fall Out of Top 10
Verdict: Fiction
Some rumors seem like blatant leaks by teams that hope a prospect will fall.
Tua Tagovailoa has been the most obvious candidate for these whispers for months.
Tagovailoa dislocated his hip last season after previously suffering injuries to both ankles. While he's back in shape and ready to go, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported that the injury history could push him out of the top 10.
"Teams don't want to accept the word of any doctors other than the doctors they employ, since there’s a chance those doctors will skew their assessments in the player's favor," Florio wrote.
But football fans know better by now—quarterback is too important a position for him to drop very far. This predraft process is stranger than most with in-person meetings canceled and facilities shuttered because of the coronavirus pandemic, but that won't stop a team from taking a risk for Tagovailoa.
He was the runaway favorite to go No. 1 before Joe Burrow's breakout season. He had a 69.3 completion percentage with 87 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions over three years, never mind the perfect mobility to fit today's game.
Health is a question mark with Tagovailoa, but it's not big enough to stop him from going in the top 10 in a top-heavy quarterback class.
Andrew Thomas Will Be First OT off Board
Verdict: Fact
Offensive tackle is arguably more confusing than wideout this year. Most would agree it's refreshingly a very strong class, though it's hard to nail down which name goes first.
But according to Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, numerous sources say Georgia's Andrew Thomas "could be the first OT off the board."
That would mean Thomas is drafted before Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs and Mekhi Becton.
And it just makes sense.
Thomas doesn't have any questions around him. He's 6'5" and 315 pounds with clear-cut ability to start at left tackle as a rookie, which is where NFL.com's Lance Zierlein hints he could play:
"Three-year starter and current bellcow of a line that is a consistent front-runner for the Joe Moore Award. He's played both tackle spots but may get first crack at playing on the left side, due to the dearth of talent there. Thomas is a gritty player with above-average recovery talent to 'get the job done' when his process breaks down. He's a Day 1 starter who comes in well-coached and technically savvy, but occasional leaning, lunging and inconsistent knee bend in pass pro could be isolated and attacked by pass-rush wolves looking to feast if he doesn't get those areas cleaned up."
With other tackles in the class, questions persist about their future positions and whether they'll even play at an offensive tackle spot. After starting three years on the edges in the SEC, Thomas is ready to go now, which plays a big role in his likely going first among his positional group.
Cardinals Won't Rule Out WR in Top 10
Verdict: Fiction
The Arizona Cardinals, at least for now, have to be done at wideout after adding DeAndre Hopkins, right?
Maybe not.
General manager Steve Keim told reporters the team won't rule out drafting a receiver in the first round.
But there are a few problems with that idea. The Cardinals hold the eighth pick in a deep class for wideouts. They already spent big to get Nuk in town and will likely owe him a big-money extension. And schematically, Hopkins is an amazing target for Kyler Murray and opens things up for other offensive players like Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald.
That said, this sort of talk could get other teams to think the Cardinals won't take the top offensive tackle available after Murray suffered 48 sacks last year. Or maybe they wouldn't draft the top outright defender after allowing 120.1 yards per game on the ground.
There is a much better value for the Cardinals in grabbing a free-falling wideout on Day 2 or Day 3 and taking the best player available in the top 10 as opposed to adding a wideout at No. 8 after trading for a proven top-10 wideout.
Jalen Hurts Has Attention of Notable Teams
Verdict: Fact
The Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers are putting in notable work on Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Which makes perfect sense.
Those Chargers have largely stood still at quarterback despite losing Philip Rivers during an offseason rich with opportunities at quarterbacks, instead working with the idea that veteran Tyrod Taylor will serve as the starter next season.
But at sixth in the draft order, the Chargers might not be in range for Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. Taking a best-player-available approach before grabbing Hurts later and letting him develop might be a smart move.
As for the Packers, life beyond Aaron Rodgers has to enter the conversation. He seems far from falling off but is entering his age-37 season, so a backup and long-term developmental project like Hurts would make sense.
Hurts, while generally viewed as a Round 2 or 3 prospect in the top 100, is also getting Tim Tebow comparisons from Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. He's a work in progress when projected to the pros. Teams with established veterans capable of properly developing a passer, like the Chargers and Packers, mesh well with him in the framework of this year's draft.
O.J. Howard Available for Trade
Verdict: Fiction
When one thinks of possible draft-day movers via trade, Andy Dalton comes to mind, not Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard.
However, Michael Lombardi reported on the podcast The GM Shuffle (h/t Greg Auman of The Athletic) that the Buccaneers could throw in the towel and add him to the trade block.
While Howard hasn't been the most productive player and hasn't lived up to expectations as the 19th pick in 2017, it would be an odd time for the Bucs to give away that sort of potential after adding Tom Brady at quarterback.
It's not like Howard is costing the team big money over multiple years or blocking others on the depth chart. And if the Buccaneers are down on him, other teams probably understand it too and will wait things out.
Simply put, the return on a trade likely wouldn't be worth it. There's also a chance playing with Brady helps Howard rewrite the narrative of his career, which would mean investing massive money in Brady stands a better shot at being a successful move too.
Fact or Fiction: Making Sense of Latest Buzz from 2020 NFL Draft's Lying Season
Lying season, smokescreen season—whatever moniker one might prefer, the NFL rumor mill throws it on thick in the week before the draft.
This year's final, exhausting march to draft day will undoubtedly feature whispers about all of the top passers, teams with extra assets looking to move up, teams with a lack of assets hoping to move down and quite a bit more.
It's a good time to step back and play a bit of "fact or fiction" with the top rumblings based on what we know when it comes to each team's goals, the prospect stock market and more.
These are the biggest buzz items about a week out, sorted into fact or fiction breakdowns.
Tune in to our 2020 NFL Draft Show for live, in-depth analysis on what each pick means for your team, with hosts Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller and Connor Rogers. No fluff, no B.S. Download the B/R app and watch starting Thursday, April 23, at 8 p.m. ET.
Jets All Over WR Henry Ruggs III
Verdict: Fact
It's not much of a surprise that the New York Jets would covet the draft's top wideouts.
According to Ralph Vacchiano of SNY, the Jets "love" Alabama wide receiver Henry Ruggs III. That might sound odd considering Ruggs is in direct competition with CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy as the draft's top wideout.
But it isn't that surprising a team might like Ruggs more than the other two. He scored 24 touchdowns over three years at Alabama before checking in at 5'11" and 188 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine and blazing a 4.27-second time in the 40-yard dash.
Those Jets lost No. 1 wideout Robby Anderson in free agency and don't have much of note returning around quarterback Sam Darnold, which is problematic considering the offense didn't have a receiving target hit the 900-yard mark last year.
Schematically speaking, the Jets might like Ruggs' fit the best as a big-play wideout whose speed stretches the field and makes Darnold's life easier. Sitting 11th in the draft order, the Jets might find he's the only top wideout left anyway.
CeeDee Lamb over Jerry Jeudy Is the Consensus
Verdict: Fiction
The debate over the draft's top wideout won't reach a conclusion until the big night.
But new buzz around the league says Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb ranks better than Jerry Jeudy of Alabama, according to a poll conducted by Bob McGinn of The Athletic.
That sort of sounds like what front offices in the top 25 would say if they'd like to see Jeudy fall to them.
While the measurables are similar and both figure to be excellent pros worthy of top-15 picks, Jeudy had to work in an Alabama offense oftentimes missing Tua Tagovailoa and going against SEC defenses. Lamb had the benefit of playing in the defense-lacking Big 12, so the fact that Jeudy is near or past him in most statistical areas says quite a bit.
And when Shannon Sharpe is taking Jeudy over Lamb because of route running, it's best to pay attention.
Falcons Hunting for a Trade Up
Verdict: Fact
On the list of teams that might want to trade up, the Atlanta Falcons stick out in boldface print.
That's something the Falcons like doing—remember the move up for Julio Jones in 2011? Sprinkle in some desperation this year, and things could get interesting.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Falcons might be considering such a move again.
It's not hard to see why. One could suggest Atlanta's window is closing. Since going to the Super Bowl in 2016, the Falcons have regressed every season and just went 7-9 for the second year in a row. Matt Ryan will be 35 years old in May. Ryan and Jones make up 20 percent of the team's cap hit in 2020.
With a value buy like Todd Gurley in free agency and presumably better health defensively, it's easy to think the Falcons could sacrifice longer-term assets like draft picks in a win-now move to get an impact defender like Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons.
Given the perceived championship window, an aggressive approach by the Falcons to guarantee themselves a prospect they really like could be one of the better moves of the first round.
Tua Set to Fall Out of Top 10
Verdict: Fiction
Some rumors seem like blatant leaks by teams that hope a prospect will fall.
Tua Tagovailoa has been the most obvious candidate for these whispers for months.
Tagovailoa dislocated his hip last season after previously suffering injuries to both ankles. While he's back in shape and ready to go, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported that the injury history could push him out of the top 10.
"Teams don't want to accept the word of any doctors other than the doctors they employ, since there’s a chance those doctors will skew their assessments in the player's favor," Florio wrote.
But football fans know better by now—quarterback is too important a position for him to drop very far. This predraft process is stranger than most with in-person meetings canceled and facilities shuttered because of the coronavirus pandemic, but that won't stop a team from taking a risk for Tagovailoa.
He was the runaway favorite to go No. 1 before Joe Burrow's breakout season. He had a 69.3 completion percentage with 87 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions over three years, never mind the perfect mobility to fit today's game.
Health is a question mark with Tagovailoa, but it's not big enough to stop him from going in the top 10 in a top-heavy quarterback class.
Andrew Thomas Will Be First OT off Board
Verdict: Fact
Offensive tackle is arguably more confusing than wideout this year. Most would agree it's refreshingly a very strong class, though it's hard to nail down which name goes first.
But according to Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, numerous sources say Georgia's Andrew Thomas "could be the first OT off the board."
That would mean Thomas is drafted before Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs and Mekhi Becton.
And it just makes sense.
Thomas doesn't have any questions around him. He's 6'5" and 315 pounds with clear-cut ability to start at left tackle as a rookie, which is where NFL.com's Lance Zierlein hints he could play:
"Three-year starter and current bellcow of a line that is a consistent front-runner for the Joe Moore Award. He's played both tackle spots but may get first crack at playing on the left side, due to the dearth of talent there. Thomas is a gritty player with above-average recovery talent to 'get the job done' when his process breaks down. He's a Day 1 starter who comes in well-coached and technically savvy, but occasional leaning, lunging and inconsistent knee bend in pass pro could be isolated and attacked by pass-rush wolves looking to feast if he doesn't get those areas cleaned up."
With other tackles in the class, questions persist about their future positions and whether they'll even play at an offensive tackle spot. After starting three years on the edges in the SEC, Thomas is ready to go now, which plays a big role in his likely going first among his positional group.
Cardinals Won't Rule Out WR in Top 10
Verdict: Fiction
The Arizona Cardinals, at least for now, have to be done at wideout after adding DeAndre Hopkins, right?
Maybe not.
General manager Steve Keim told reporters the team won't rule out drafting a receiver in the first round.
But there are a few problems with that idea. The Cardinals hold the eighth pick in a deep class for wideouts. They already spent big to get Nuk in town and will likely owe him a big-money extension. And schematically, Hopkins is an amazing target for Kyler Murray and opens things up for other offensive players like Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald.
That said, this sort of talk could get other teams to think the Cardinals won't take the top offensive tackle available after Murray suffered 48 sacks last year. Or maybe they wouldn't draft the top outright defender after allowing 120.1 yards per game on the ground.
There is a much better value for the Cardinals in grabbing a free-falling wideout on Day 2 or Day 3 and taking the best player available in the top 10 as opposed to adding a wideout at No. 8 after trading for a proven top-10 wideout.
Jalen Hurts Has Attention of Notable Teams
Verdict: Fact
The Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers are putting in notable work on Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Which makes perfect sense.
Those Chargers have largely stood still at quarterback despite losing Philip Rivers during an offseason rich with opportunities at quarterbacks, instead working with the idea that veteran Tyrod Taylor will serve as the starter next season.
But at sixth in the draft order, the Chargers might not be in range for Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. Taking a best-player-available approach before grabbing Hurts later and letting him develop might be a smart move.
As for the Packers, life beyond Aaron Rodgers has to enter the conversation. He seems far from falling off but is entering his age-37 season, so a backup and long-term developmental project like Hurts would make sense.
Hurts, while generally viewed as a Round 2 or 3 prospect in the top 100, is also getting Tim Tebow comparisons from Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. He's a work in progress when projected to the pros. Teams with established veterans capable of properly developing a passer, like the Chargers and Packers, mesh well with him in the framework of this year's draft.
O.J. Howard Available for Trade
Verdict: Fiction
When one thinks of possible draft-day movers via trade, Andy Dalton comes to mind, not Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard.
However, Michael Lombardi reported on the podcast The GM Shuffle (h/t Greg Auman of The Athletic) that the Buccaneers could throw in the towel and add him to the trade block.
While Howard hasn't been the most productive player and hasn't lived up to expectations as the 19th pick in 2017, it would be an odd time for the Bucs to give away that sort of potential after adding Tom Brady at quarterback.
It's not like Howard is costing the team big money over multiple years or blocking others on the depth chart. And if the Buccaneers are down on him, other teams probably understand it too and will wait things out.
Simply put, the return on a trade likely wouldn't be worth it. There's also a chance playing with Brady helps Howard rewrite the narrative of his career, which would mean investing massive money in Brady stands a better shot at being a successful move too.