ESPN: 2018 NFL Draft Quarterback Class Preview

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Merlin

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http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/s...-preview-background-scouting-reports-pro-fits

2018 NFL draft quarterback class primer: Everything you need to know
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How many QB's will go in the first round of the draft? (1:47)
Todd McShay has a high number of quarterbacks going in the first round of his first mock draft. (1:47)

Jan 1, 2018
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    Dan GrazianoESPN Staff Writer
Feels like last year we heard a ton of pre-draft talk about how the quarterback class wasn't so great. Turns out it had Deshaun Watson, who was pretty special until tearing his ACL in practice in early November. And Mitchell Trubisky ended up starting for the Bears before it was all over. Heck, DeShone Kizer started for the Browns right away ... although maybe he shouldn't have.

Anyway, that was last year. This year's quarterback draft class is the talk of the NFL town. It has been since last offseason. Seriously, at the combine last year, teams would moan about the quality of the quarterbacks in the draft and say, "But next year ..."

Well, next year is here, so how does it look? There are a couple of SoCal dudes still turning heads, a big guy in Wyoming who makes scouts drool and a Heisman-winning bad boy who may or may not be 6 feet tall. It's a fun group, and will dominate a lot of our attention in the four months leading up to the 2018 NFL draft.

So, let's have a bit of a look at where things stand in late December, shall we? We'll include notes from ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, plus insight from personnel people in the league.

And skip to the end here to see which teams might actually draft one of these QBs in the first round -- there are several possibilities:

Rosen | Darnold | Allen | Mayfield | Jackson | Best of the rest

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Josh Rosen, UCLA
Junior | 6-foot-4, 218 pounds | 30 career starts

2017 stats: 283 of 452 passing (62.6 percent) for 3,756 yards, with 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; two rushing touchdowns, three lost fumbles; 67.1 Total QBR (No. 42 in FBS)

Who is this guy, and why should we care?
Rosen caught everyone's attention with a 3,670-yard freshman season in 2015. NFL scouts love the way he looks in the pocket -- his footwork, throwing motion, anticipation and accuracy. After an injury-plagued 2016 season, he rebounded in 2017 with numbers nearly identical to those he put up as a freshman. Injuries set in again, though, and with Chip Kelly and a new coaching staff on the way in, it seems like a sure thing that Rosen will enter the draft. He's enough of a prospect to merit consideration at No. 1 overall -- especially if Sam Darnold doesn't come out.

Kiper's draft ranking: No. 1 QB and No. 4 overall prospect. From Kiper's Big Board: "I have Rosen over Darnold for now, but it's close, and things could change between now and April. ... There aren't many quarterbacks who can make the throws [Rosen] does."

McShay's draft ranking: No. 1 QB and No. 1 overall prospect. From McShay's Top 32: "Rosen is far superior [than Darnold] going through his progressions and has a pretty deep ball. He's a better QB right now, but that doesn't mean he will be down the line."

Rosen was held out of UCLA's bowl game. Assuming he declares for the draft as expected, Rosen will be subjected to a pre-draft process focused mainly on his injury history and some personality questions that have surfaced in media reports. It's almost certain that he will be picked at or near the top of the draft, but if it's a question between him and another highly rated guy, teams will want to check out anything negative that has come up.

Where can I find out more about Rosen?
Rosen, Darnold and the battle for Los Angeles, and the No. 1 pick (November 2017)

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Sam Darnold, USC
Third-year sophomore | 6-4, 225 pounds | 23 career starts

2017 stats: 303 of 480 passing (63.1 percent) for 4,143 yards, with 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; five rushing touchdowns, seven lost fumbles; 74.6 Total QBR (No. 22 in FBS)

Who is this guy, and why should we care?
Darnold couldn't beat out Max Browne as a redshirt freshman in 2016, but when Browne was benched after three games, people in the NFL took notice. There was at least some can-he-do-it-again sense about Darnold early this season, after a dazzling 31-touchdown, nine-interception 2016 season and a fantastic Rose Bowl performance against Penn State. Some early-season struggles in 2017 pointed to the concerns NFL evaluators had (and still have) about his footwork and some of his decision-making.

But those same evaluators recognize that USC was affected negatively by graduation and injury issues this season, and the way Darnold has played since Halloween has affirmed what scouts love about his abilities and makeup. It's not certain he will even come out -- and some in the league believe he could benefit from another year in college. But if Darnold does enter the draft, the overall package of potential and college performance makes him a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick. He went first in McShay's debut mock draft.

Kiper's draft ranking: No. 2 QB and No. 5 overall prospect. From Kiper's Big Board: "I think Darnold has a chance to be special, and I believe in his talent long term. Darnold has a big frame, makes quick decisions and is an accurate, natural passer."

McShay's draft ranking: No. 2 QB and No. 3 overall prospect. From McShay's Top 32: "His accuracy is terrific and he has special intangibles, but there is definitely a question now as to if he'll declare for the draft."

decide whether to declare for the draft. It's no sure thing he will. As a third-year sophomore, he could potentially return for two more seasons at USC. Darnold denied a rumor last month that he might return to USC if Cleveland has the first pick. And he was asked about the Browns again before the Trojans' bowl game. "Whenever I come out to go to the NFL, I think I'd be honored to play for any team," Darnold said on Dec. 27.

Where can I find out more about Darnold?
Rosen, Darnold and the battle for Los Angeles, and the No. 1 pick (November 2017)

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Josh Allen, Wyoming
Fourth-year junior | 6-5, 233 pounds | 26 career starts

2017 stats: 152 of 270 passing (56.3 percent) for 1,812 yards, with 16 touchdowns, six interceptions; five rushing touchdowns, two lost fumbles; 51.9 Total QBR (No. 76 in FBS)

Who is this guy, and why should we care?
Allen didn't have any FBS offers out of high school and had only two after a freshman season at Reedley College. But he landed at Wyoming and became the starter in 2016, and fans of the draft might remember his name from the time when ESPN's Adam Schefter said after the 2017 draft: "There was one personnel director who told me this week that you can put it in the books, Josh Allen will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft next year."

Scouts look at Allen as a high-end talent, but it's all projection. He has tremendous size and a huge arm, and he made plenty of plays in 2016, when Wyoming had a strong veteran team around him. His numbers didn't show any improvement this season, but his coaching staff and the NFL scouting community seem to blame that on the deterioration of the rest of the Cowboys' roster due to the departures of so many of his weapons prior to the season. What scouts and evaluators see with Allen is elite potential -- the kind for which you're willing to overlook little things, such as a poor season at Wyoming.

Kiper's draft ranking: No. 3 QB and No. 11 overall prospect. From Kiper's Big Board: "Allen is super raw, but he can really sling it. ... I think Allen's numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players."

McShay's draft ranking: No. 3 QB and No. 15 overall prospect. From McShay's Top 32: "He has an elite arm and frame and can make every throw. The postseason process will be key for him."

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl -- three touchdown passes in the first quarter, and no turnovers -- Allen announced his intentions to enter the draft. He instantly becomes one of its most talked-about prospects. The sense in the scouting community is that Darnold and Rosen are a 1-2 in some order (probably that one) and Allen slips slightly toward the middle of the first round, though possibly still in the top 10. There will be questions about Allen's readiness to start right away at the NFL level, but some people will convince themselves it's worth a shot because he's such a specimen.

Where can I find out more about Allen?
Scouting Allen (November 2017)

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Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Fifth-year senior | 6-1, 220 pounds | 46 career starts

2017 stats: 262 of 369 passing (71.9 percent) for 4,240 yards, with 41 touchdowns, five interceptions; five rushing touchdowns, zero lost fumbles; 93.0 Total QBR (No. 2 in FBS)

Who is this guy, and why should we care?
Come on. You don't know who Mayfield is? He just won the Heisman Trophy, for goodness' sake. And it's ... well, it's not the first time he has been in the news this year. Mayfield is the interloper on this list -- the scrappy guy who crashed what looked like a big three and made it a big four. His numbers are basically in line with what he put up last season, but doing it again after losing teammates such as Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine and Dede Westbrook to the NFL plus his performance in big games have thrust him into the first-round conversation.

Kiper's draft ranking: No. 4 QB and No. 13 overall prospect. From Kiper's Big Board: "I love him on the field -- he's not afraid to take shots downfield, and he has an underrated arm -- but his size is going to be a question until he gets in front of scouts at the Senior Bowl [he hasn't said whether he'll attend] or the combine."

McShay's draft ranking: No. 4 QB and No. 27 overall prospect. From McShay's Top 32: "The issue for him is that he doesn't have the ideal measurables of an NFL starter, and he doesn't have an elite trait to compensate, like Russell Wilson's scrambling ability or Drew Brees' accuracy."

Russell Wilson, because what you have here is leadership and competitiveness on a unique kind of level." -- NFC coach.

So, now what?
Mayfield threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns with a costly interception in the Sooners' overtime loss to Georgia in the Rose Bowl. Next up for Mayfield is the Senior Bowl, where he'll stand in front of coaches and scouts for the first time. They will want to ask a lot of questions about Mayfield's well-publicized maturity issues along with his size, but barring some unforeseen off-field revelation, it's tough to see him slipping out of the first round.

Where can I find out more about Mayfield?
College football's brightest star hits the game's biggest stage (December 2017)

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Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Junior | 6-3, 210 pounds | 33 career starts

2017 stats: 254 of 430 passing (59.1 percent) for 3,660 yards, with 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 18 rushing touchdowns, three lost fumbles; 85.1 Total QBR (No. 3 in FBS)

Who is this guy, and why should we care?
Jackson is, of course, last year's Heisman winner, and he is a unique prospect due to his remarkable abilities as a runner and a passer. He has eclipsed both 3,400 passing yards and 1,400 rushing yards for the second straight season, and to watch him is to watch a quarterback who can dominate a college game in multiple ways. Defenses have to account for him differently than they do any other quarterback because of his elite speed and dynamic running.

Kiper's draft ranking: No. 7 QB. From Kiper's take on the Heisman finalists: "From the NFL scouts I've talked to, I think teams are going to ask Jackson to work out as a quarterback and a receiver. They want to see if he could make the transition if he didn't develop enough as a QB."

McShay's draft ranking: No. 7 QB and No. 88 overall prospect. From McShay's preseason scouting report: "Jackson needs to continue to improve his accuracy as a passer. That's the bottom line. Right now, he's a phenomenal college quarterback mostly due to his running skills and athleticism."

Scouting Jackson (November 2017)

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State

Headed to the Senior Bowl in late January, Rudolph brings size (6-5) and a ton of experience to go with his impressive college numbers. Some scouts wonder whether he's a player whose supporting cast makes him look better than he is.

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Luke Falk, Washington State

The former walk-on set all kinds of school and conference passing records at Washington State. Seen by many as a Day 3 pick, Falk could sneak into the third round with a strong showing in the pre-draft process. There are concerns about arm strength and a thin frame, but scouts love his accuracy.

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Riley Ferguson, Memphis

Check out full scouting reports on all of the draft's top QBs here.

So, which teams might draft quarterbacks in the first round?
Oh, how much time do you have? Here's a start with the top 20 in the draft set, with some help from the Football Power Index's projected draft order for picks 21-32:

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Cleveland Browns

First-round picks: Nos. 1 and 4

They could pick any of these guys they want. And they need one. DeShone Kizer appears to be far away from being a consistent NFL quarterback, if he ever will be, and Cleveland has been looking for answers at this position seemingly since the days of Bernie Kosar. New GM John Dorsey will surely make quarterback his top offseason priority.

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New York Giants

First-round pick: No. 2

The Giants are in position to draft Eli Manning's successor. Their quarterback depth chart features Manning and completely untested 2017 third-rounder Davis Webb. They could move on from Manning after this season and turn it over to a couple of young guys, or they could keep Manning if they think whichever QB they pick here isn't ready to start.

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Denver Broncos

First-round pick: No. 5

They are two years removed from taking Paxton Lynch in the first round and still apparently no closer to an answer at this position. With Trevor Siemian having flopped, Lynch unable to stay healthy and Brock Osweiler being ... well, a bit tough to trust, Denver could look for an answer in the top five.

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New York Jets

First-round pick: No. 6

Here's another team, like Cleveland, perpetually searching for answers at QB. The Jets got a lightning-in-a-bottle year from 38-year-old Josh McCown, but Bryce Petty hasn't shown much, and they haven't had any kind of look at Christian Hackenberg. They could bring back McCown to mentor their pick.

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Miami Dolphins

First-round pick: No. 11

The Fins could bring back Ryan Tannehill, but money isn't an issue if they were to release him. Assuming Jay Cutler resumes his TV career, Miami could be on the hunt.

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Cincinnati Bengals

First-round pick: No. 12

AJ McCarron could be an Andy Dalton successor, but McCarron also could be an unrestricted free agent. If a new coaching staff wants to make changes in Cincinnati, Dalton could be on the outs, and the Bengals could be looking for other options.

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Washington Redskins

First-round pick: No. 13

If Kirk Cousins leaves as a free agent, Washington is stuck with Colt McCoy.

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Arizona Cardinals

First-round pick: No. 15

Will Carson Palmer retire? Will Bruce Arians? Will Larry Fitzgerald? Talk about uncertainty. Arizona is teeming with it. The Cardinals haven't addressed Palmer's successor in either of the past two drafts, which is a bit of a surprise.

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Baltimore Ravens

First-round pick: No. 16

Joe Flacco's contract leaves the Ravens on the hook for at least another year or two, but the backup situation is woeful, and if you find a guy you like, it's never the wrong time to take him.

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Los Angeles Chargers

First-round pick: No. 17

Like Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers is getting up there. And the Chargers don't have a replacement on the roster.

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Buffalo Bills

Projected first-round pick: Nos. 22 and 24

It sure doesn't look as if the Bills are sold on Tyrod Taylor. And while they believe in Nathan Peterman to a certain degree, they also could jump if they find someone they like better in this intriguing class.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected first-round pick: No. 27

The way Blake Bortles is playing makes it look as if the Jags will keep him around. But that doesn't mean they'll ignore other options if he reverts to old form. He is signed only through 2018.

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New Orleans Saints

Projected first-round pick: No. 28

Drew Brees is eligible for free agency, and while there's no reason to think he's going anywhere, he will turn 39 in January. The Saints could look for a successor.

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected first-round pick: No. 29


You know you will hear that Ben Roethlisberger retirement talk again this offseason. You know you will.

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Minnesota Vikings

Projected first-round pick: No. 31

Things are going well with Case Keenum. Heck, Minnesota could end up winning the Super Bowl with him and signing him long term. But the fact is that Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford are all unrestricted free agents, and there is loads of long-range uncertainty about this position in Minnesota, regardless of how well the Vikings are playing now.

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New England Patriots

Projected first-round pick: No. 32

Their backup situation isn't what it was a year ago when they had Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett behind Tom Brady. And while he doesn't play like it, Brady is 40 years old. It's not crazy to imagine the Pats dipping their toes into this water. And remember: New England got San Francisco's pick at the top of the second round in the Garoppolo trade.
 

Merlin

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If I'm the Browns the guy I'm after is Darnold. Hell, if I needed a QB this year I'd trade up for him. Nothing against the others, but I am certain that Darnold will be a franchise QB for whoever takes him. If it's the Browns it's going to take some time, but eventually he will lead that franchise out of the dark.
 

Merlin

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Cool article for those who aren't aware of some of the Darnold family storyline...

http://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp-usc-darnold-family-20161228-story.html

USC quarterback Sam Darnold was doing an interview on “The Dan Patrick Show” in November when he was faced with a series of leading questions.

"Who's the best athlete in your family?" Patrick asked.

Darnold replied that it would have to be his grandfather, Dick Hammer.

"He went to USC, didn't he?” Patrick asked.

“He was a stud,” Darnold said. Hammer in fact was an Olympian in volleyball and a former USC basketball player, a firefighter who, while in his 60s, is said to have destroyed Darnold’s father in a game of one-on-one hoops.

Patrick went on: “Was he an actor?”

He was, Darnold explained. Hammer played Captain Hammer on the show “Emergency!”

Darnold then waited a beat, before adding what Patrick probably already knew would be the most interesting part of the interview:

Hammer was an athletic artist. He only picked up volleyball, the sport he’d compete in during the Olympics, in his early 20s. One day, while Hammer was doing laps in the pool at USC, the swimming coach noticed his form and asked him to try out for that team, too. Hammer declined.

Hammer met his wife, Betty, in junior high school, and she worked to help pay for Hammer to attend USC. She also played volleyball for the U.S. national team. Of their six grandchildren, five played volleyball in college, including Franki Darnold, Sam’s sister, who was all-conference at Rhode Island. “She’s the stud, by the way,” Chris Darnold said.

The lone exception was Sam, but he, too was a natural. One day, Franki asked Darnold to play in a doubles volleyball tournament, just for fun. Darnold had never played competitively before. They placed in the tournament.

Hammer happened into his Marlboro Man role. After USC, Hammer became a firefighter, eventually serving as the captain in charge of protecting all of Universal Studios. Meanwhile, he kept side gigs. On his off days, he worked as a substitute teacher in Long Beach, mostly for students with special needs or in rougher neighborhoods, where he felt like he could make the biggest difference.

To supplement his income, he got a Screen Actors Guild card. Once, Aunt Jemima needed someone to play a firefighter for a commercial shoot. Hammer was available. The shoot went so well that he was cast to play himself in the television series “Emergency!” Someone at Philip Morris noticed his look, handsome and a little rugged, and he was signed to become one of Los Angeles’ four Marlboro Men. He appeared on billboards all over the world.

“I remember everyone saying, ‘That’s your dad?’ ” Chris Darnold said.

This was during the 1970s, when the public was becoming more aware of the dangers of smoking. Chris and her brothers began stealing his cigarette packs and scribbling over the box, “cancer sticks.” After a few years, Hammer was getting older and realized the role was “contradictory to the way he lived,” Chris Darnold said. Hammer had raised his kids to be active and to eat healthfully. The family kept a big garden where they’d grow their own vegetables.

Hammer was always an attentive father, Chris Darnold said, and he was devoted to his entire family. He would often take his grandchildren to the park and have them pick up 10 pieces of trash, to teach them about protecting the environment. When Franki was in preschool, Chris Darnold would arrive to pick her up only to find that Hammer had beaten her there and taken Franki to the beach to collect seashells.

That was just like her father, Chris Darnold said. But each time it happened, she was still a little surprised. At the time, Hammer was dying of prostate cancer that had spread into his bones.

Hammer died of the disease in 1999. Sam Darnold was too young to remember anything of his grandfather. But family members kept finding pieces of him in his grandson.

All of what he knows of Hammer he knows from stories. He was told that Hammer was humble and didn’t like talking about himself.

Darnold has a similar reputation at USC.

"You barely can get a word out of him off the field,” running back Justin Davis said.

Early on at USC, Darnold surprised the starters with his assertiveness. Receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster didn’t know Darnold very well during Darnold’s first season, but he’d heard a story that had circulated within the team. Someone had mentioned that USC had brought in another top quarterback recruit in Darnold’s class.

“And Sam, I think he said, 'The best player plays right?' " Smith-Schuster said.

This season, after Darnold overthrew a pass to receiver Darreus Rogers, Rogers reassured him, telling him they’d get the timing down.

“Yeah,” Darnold deadpanned. “I thought you'd be more athletic.”

Chris Darnold said her father would’ve seen a lot of himself in his grandson. He would’ve liked seeing him play in the Rose Bowl game, too.

“And I'm proud of that,” Sam Darnold said.

As is his way, he didn’t need to say much more.
 

OldSchool

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Cleveland finally should get a good QB to build around and if they're lucky Barkley is there at #4. Go huge on OLine and WR's the rest of the picks.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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Cleveland finally should get a good QB to build around and if they're lucky Barkley is there at #4. Go huge on OLine and WR's the rest of the picks.


I'd hate to have Barkley end up in Cleveland. But with Cleveland having two of the top four picks it seems possible. I think the Colts take Saquon at number three if they don't trade the pick to a QB needy team. If the Browns don't have a preference between, Darnold, Rosen, and Allen, maybe they take Barkley number 1 and a QB at four. Two of the top four will be there. That way they are sure of getting Barkley. Having a strong running game makes life easier for a young QB.

I don't see a clear front runner at QB. In Darnold's huge Rose Bowl, he was under zero pressure and his three main receivers were getting open all day against an out matched PSU secondary. Darnold has not been great under pressure. Rosen has injury history. Allen is raw, Mayfield has character concerns. It could be wide open. Dorsey likes a good running game. Taking Barkley number 1 would shock the draft pros.
 

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I'd hate to have Barkley end up in Cleveland. But with Cleveland having two of the top four picks it seems possible. I think the Colts take Saquon at number three if they don't trade the pick to a QB needy team. If the Browns don't have a preference between, Darnold, Rosen, and Allen, maybe they take Barkley number 1 and a QB at four. Two of the top four will be there. That way they are sure of getting Barkley. Having a strong running game makes life easier for a young QB.

I don't see a clear front runner at QB. In Darnold's huge Rose Bowl, he was under zero pressure and his three main receivers were getting open all day against an out matched PSU secondary. Darnold has not been great under pressure. Rosen has injury history. Allen is raw, Mayfield has character concerns. It could be wide open. Dorsey likes a good running game. Taking Barkley number 1 would shock the draft pros.
Colts are a very real possibility for him especially since I read the other day that Irsay was talking about wanting a power back like him.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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Colts are a very real possibility for him especially since I read the other day that Irsay was talking about wanting a power back like him.

Maybe Cleveland takes Barkley first, or signs Cousins then drafts Barkley.


But, yeah, the Colts make sense. Most teams in the league would love to have him.
 

Merlin

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Rosen & Darnold remind me a little of Goff & Wentz.

Rosen's got the better throwing motion and he's real accurate. Darnold will need to work his mechanics like Wentz did, but he's the better athlete and sorta reminds me of Favre, dude's a gunslinger.

As a USC fan I am biased. I'd take Darnold first overall. I think he'll work his mechanics like Wentz did and speed up his release. But Rosen also didn't exactly play for a brilliant offensive staff, being under Mora couldn't have been fun.

IMO both are going to be very good pros, just feel like Darnold will be an elite player in the NFL.
 

RamsFlash80

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Rosen & Darnold remind me a little of Goff & Wentz.

Rosen's got the better throwing motion and he's real accurate. Darnold will need to work his mechanics like Wentz did, but he's the better athlete and sorta reminds me of Favre, dude's a gunslinger.

As a USC fan I am biased. I'd take Darnold first overall. I think he'll work his mechanics like Wentz did and speed up his release. But Rosen also didn't exactly play for a brilliant offensive staff, being under Mora couldn't have been fun.

IMO both are going to be very good pros, just feel like Darnold will be an elite player in the NFL.

I am a UCLA fan and i agree with this. I think both will be good starting caliber NFL QBs regardless. Darnold gets a slight edge for the reasons you provided above. Rosen is taking a lot of heat for not winning enough which I think is really unfair if you dive into UCLA as a team since he got there. Goff got the same treatment though coming out so its not really surprising.