Draft value chart and the Rams trade

[VeteranRamFan]

So when I first heard the news, I thought this is too much to give up!!! Where is our WR? CB? DL depth? OC? TE?

See what I mean? Then I calmed down, had a drink or two or three and it hit me. Snisher means business. They want to win, to stop being a .500 team. Bold move to say the least.

So I looked at the dreaded draft value chart and did the math. Now, assuming the Rams go 8-8 in 2016 that should put them drafting at number 16 in 2017. I'm making a lot of assumptions and staying middle of the road with my future predictions. Don't shoot me just yet.

So based on furture draft picks being valued one round lower than present day picks it starts to look like a good trade...from a metrics point of view.

Rams draft value they received from the Titans this year is 3088.2. That's the 1st, 4th and 6th picks we get from the Titans. The Titans get a draft value of 2676! This year's picks and next year's valued at a round lower, again just about in the middle of the rounds. BUT, if you use this years draft value for the future 2017 picks, then the Titans score a whopping 3370 points. That is a 281.8 point difference. Or if you like, about pick number 62 in this years draft, 2nd round pick number 30.

So to put a Washington DC type of spin on it, the Rams got the first overall pick in the draft and gave the Titans an extra late 2nd round pick. Doesn't sound so bad that way.

I'm all in now. It's playoffs or bust, go big or go home, you play to win. Seattle, Cards and SF can kiss my snowy white a$$ for all I care. I'm a Ram fan just itching for my season ticket email to get here!

GO RAMS!!!

 

[CGI_Ram]

Another way to look at it;

We traded a #1, 2, 3 and a 1 (2017).... For a 1, 4, and 6.

One of our 2nds this year we got for Bradford and we are likely to recoup a 3rd for Jenkins next year.

So in the end; One of the 1's cancel out... So we are down a 1, 2, and 3 for a 4 and 6.

Follow me?

I know this is some funky math, but I'm trying to rationalize the bounty

 

[Ram Man]

Suffice to say there are others who think the trade was not so good for the Rams from the standpoint of draft value charts.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/172329908/rams-titan-trade-no-1-overall-draft-pick

 

[DR RAM]

Suffice to say there are others who think the trade was not so good for the Rams from the standpoint of draft value charts.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/172329908/rams-titan-trade-no-1-overall-draft-pick

I don't know, first off, our 3rd round pick will be a comp pick, per Snead, so the value isn't exact. Secondly, they got an extra 3rd round pick, as far as value goes. That's pretty close. It's a long jump from 15 to 1. I'm coming to terms with it. I'll love it if we get better. I'm exited about the prospect of having either QB on our team.

 

[Tron]

Other teams may laugh for what we gave up but if they didn't have have a QB and did this they'd think it was brilliant. Fuck the haters. This was the right move. I've been wanting this for months.

 

[VeteranRamFan]

Okay, so FLV has a more detailed and vested interest in trade values. I like your analysis. It sort of mirrors what I was trying to do but I'm of a much simpler mind. I, like you, believe it is a fair trade as far as metrics and draft value charts go. Now only if we can win more than 8 games and our trade value goes up plus our self esteem.

 

[WvuIN02]

Those charts arent even used anymore from what i have seen on tv by guys who work in FO in interviews and such.

 

[DR RAM]

Those charts arent even used anymore from what i have seen on tv by guys who work in FO in interviews and such.

Not true. Check the trades the last 5 years, and those charts are very close, even though people say they aren't.

 

[RamFan503]

I saw an interview with Jimmy (the inventor of the chart) He said teams are still using the chart but every team tweaks it each year to fit their criteria. IOW - you have to know the criteria before you can come up with the real values by/for each team. But as a base, it apparently still has quite a bit of merit.

 

[Akrasian]

I saw an interview with Jimmy (the inventor of the chart) He said teams are still using the chart but every team tweaks it each year to fit their criteria. IOW - you have to know the criteria before you can come up with the real values by/for each team. But as a base, it apparently still has quite a bit of merit.

Right. It's a starting point for trades. Of course the desperation of teams, competition for trades, etc alters it - but it's rare that when a team has a significant amount of time to negotiate that there is a HUGE variance. The Rams traded down in 2012 for less - after Jacksonville jumped in front of them and took the player they wanted, for instance.

Incidentally, this shows the genius of Snead - the Rams got the RG3 haul after Snead set a fairly quick deadline - basically telling the Browns and Redskins to make their best offer or lose out. The Browns didn't take it seriously, and the Redskins did, raising their final offer.

 

[TSFH Fan]

Running in place on an annual hamster wheel of mediocrity, the Rams had no choice but to swing for the fences in hopes of finding a quarterback solution.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...d-no-choice-but-to-trade-up-for-a-quarterback

So, how much is the ticket to get off the wheel?
The trade wasn't just for a player or just for another pick, it was to change the course of the franchise.
Seeing how things turn out is half the fun, right?

 

[Merlin]

Hit on the pick with a QB who is above average = trade was good for Rams.

Hit on the pick with a QB who is elite = trade was great for Rams and they are good for the next decade.

Only way the Rams really lose out is if the QB they take is average or below. I think there's a reasonable chance that doesn't happen. I am all the F in with this trade man. Didn't think they'd do it. Didn't see it happening, so for me this is like winning the damn lottery.

 

[Gandalf]

It was an excellent trade! We finally get the most important and hardest position to acquire.
We just built the line and have probably the best running back in the league, we're ready to frickin roll!
We still have some cap to fill in some holes and the chances of getting decent players in free
agency just went up.
Shiny new QB and moving to LA makes us more attractive.
This is the most excited have been for this team in years!

 

[Mackeyser]

I don't know, first off, our 3rd round pick will be a comp pick, per Snead, so the value isn't exact. Secondly, they got an extra 3rd round pick, as far as value goes. That's pretty close. It's a long jump from 15 to 1. I'm coming to terms with it. I'll love it if we get better. I'm exited about the prospect of having either QB on our team.

After this year, comp picks can be traded. And the announcement about the trade came that IF the Rams get a 3rd rounder back for the 2017 draft, the Titans will get our 3rd round comp pick and we'll keep our regular pick.

Won't matter very much since our pick will be at the very end of the round...

 

[UKram]

youre like rain man wanna hit the casinos ?

 

[Ramhusker]

I'm all in on making Cleveland believe we have a ton of offers to move up and get the QB they covet and talking them into swapping picks for their 2nd. We still get Wentz or Goff and a top WR.

 

[jap]

It's all just people playing games with numbers. Hell, I make up my own value charts for some of my own interests.

 

[551staaa]

Thanks for this post. I was wondering how this trade numbered out on the draft pick charts. I feel better about the trade now, and I felt pretty good about it already. I would rather have the regret of having taken a chance and failed than the regret of wondering what would have happened if I had tried.