Dead Horse Post of the Week (part 2) - HC Search

[Mackeyser]

As the speculation mounts, the desire to repost the same things over and over again has necessitated another DHPotW.

For millennia, we have assigned random events significant meaning in order to make sense of things.

"That comet overhead is an ill omen. Quick! Sacrifice a virgin so that the gods will be appeased and our crops will be spared!"

Which leads us to Asshole Face (the pedantic side of me insists I mention it's Payton, not Peyton. That's Manning. Manning is EY. The coach, Sean is AY...Payton. Anyway...I did say it was pedantic).

He's made some moves, firing Joe Vitt and others. What does it mean???

No one knows. We know he's openly considered leaving NO last year and there are some good coaching slots opening up this year. As well, if Payton WAS considering leaving Nawlins, he wouldn't be a quick hire which means that once he did finally leave, any new coach would either be stuck with his guys or more likely, let his guys go with little chance of getting work. So, the firing of those guys really doesn't tell us anything.

Now... if Payton starts HIRING guys... that's the slam dunk that he's staying in Nawlins because you don't hire guys who have to move families and all that if you have even an inkling that you're about to bounce and all those guys are likely to be dismissed.

So unless Payton hires anyone to replace those fired (I hadn't heard if he has or hasn't), then we know exactly as much as when this coaching carousel started. Nothing.

Now... As for the coaches...

My Pattern-o-meter (I need a better name)...

Asshole Face would BY FAR be the best coach for the Rams. It's not close. Asshole Face took a bust of Kerry Collins and essentially revived his career in NY. The same Kerry Collins became the ONLY pocket passer Fisher ever had and I kept trying to say Fisher had NOTHING whatsoever to do with Collins' development. And he didn't. It was Payton. Payton also worked with rookie Romo and very much sped up his development.

Drew Brees had a VERY good year and a couple of good years in SD, but he wasn't even overall a top QB. So much so that SD at the top of the draft...drafted a QB to replace him. He played really well, then had the really bad injury to his throwing shoulder. Saban at Miami wanted him, but Miami wouldn't clear him medically. Nawlins did and Payton tailored an offense around Brees' strengths. Now, we have the only QB in NFL history to throw for multiple 5k yard seasons (this was his 5th when no other in history has done it more than once...and if you look at either his running game, OL or receivers, NONE are stellar...NONE are All-Pros.

All that shows that multiple times throughout Payton's career, he's significantly developed a QB. Well, the Rams have gone all in on Goff. Unless, they are rethinking that bet, not wanting to throw good money after bad and they just want to let the bet ride, they will support Goff with perhaps the best QB whisperer of our generation. The fact that he's available at the exact moment that we need someone to develop our Franchise QB is not just fortuitous...it's Serendipity...

I know he had issues on the defensive side of the ball, but we didn't seem to have any trouble with Williams, the guy who he won the SB with. So, no. I think we'll find that right combo and with our D talent, this would have all the makings of something truly special.

Other HC candidates. (not gonna cover them all cuz as Demoff said, some of them are about learning about the team, free research...) In order of my preference.

Sean McVay: The other Sean. Apparently, he had an amazing interview and I'm completely not surprised. Unfortunately, health issues have made me tardy in doing all the homework on these candidates, but the more input I put in on McVay, the higher he rises...so much so that I feel pretty confident putting him at #2. Why? Several reasons. He's got Kirk Cousins, a QB of limited raw talent, playing at a pretty high level. He's keeps finding ways of reviving the run game when teams take it away. Most importantly, even as young as he is, guys swear by him. He already has the presence and the loyalty of players. A HUGE part of the alchemy of winning is getting players to actually all play at that 100% threshold. He's able to get guys on that level. That will be critical for the once again young Rams team.

Kyle Shanahan: His most impressive stop wasn't this year with Matty Ice. It was the year he spent in Cleveland. THAT was some Coaching Kung Fu...and his Kung Fu is strong. At ever stop, he's had amazing production as a teacher/coordinator. Thing is, we need an HC and that's my hesitation. Unlike McVay, he's rubbed some people the wrong way. Then again, maybe those people don't need to be there with all that production. His pedigree, experience and production are certainly worthy of the chance. He's another QB whisperer as well, which is something Goff needs. Badly. Goff has produced at historically low levels, but he's not historically bad. Something has to give.

Matt Patricia: The first non-QB whisperer on the list. Patricia has worked both OL coaching as well as several spots on D before becoming DC. One of the benefits of Patricia coming is that he'd likely bring the EP which I've stated UNEQUIVOCALLY, would be the best offense for Goff. However, as multiple articles have also pointed out, the more developed it gets, the harder it is to find receivers to run it (which is why I think we see so few implementations of it). IF...IF, IF, IF you can find the smart receivers, it's almost stupid easy. I mean, with decent play calling, NE went 11-5 with Matt Cassel. And they didn't have a great D that year. What Matt Patricia brings is an appreciation for winning in the trenches and smart, tough, disciplined play.

Josh McDaniel: He's better than he's been given credit around here. His play calling is good enough that Brady doesn't have to check out of plays all that often. He's simply amazing at finding the mismatches and designing plays. He's extended the EP substantially, beyond even Weis. If he can install it in layers and not overwhelm a young QB, while bringing in smart WRs, this team would be well on the way to dominating. He's been very public about his faults, number one being not listening enough. His talent isn't in question. A more limited HC role like the Rams may be ideal where he doesn't have to deal with total control may actually suit him better than a place like the 9ers where he'd ask for whole enchilada an could be overwhelmed...again.

Honorable Mention:

Jim Bob Cooter: Was instrumental in Peyton Manning's record breaking years in Denver and Matt Stafford having an MVP season in Detroit. Guys get past the Redneck-est name ever in a minute...because... TOUCHDOWN. I just can't get past that the DC from there is on the interview list, but the OC who should be considered isn't. That's just...wrong.

Vance Joseph: How he wasn't in the mix when he nearly got the Denver job 2 years ago is beyond me. He got Suh to buy in and produce and has that D clicking. He may actually be the favorite for the Denver job now, even with Kyle Shanahan being available. I'm still shocked he wasn't even on the interview list.

Dave Toub: He's been getting notice...and he should. His special teams work is phenomenal. Philly and KC in particular. The difference between Toub and other guys from Belichick, Tomlin and John Harbaugh was that they spent time on ST before coaching other units. They didn't go from ST to HC. The last coach to go from ST to HC didn't fare well and front offices have deep memories. If Toub really wanted to eventually be an HC, he'd switch to either OC or DC and put that out there. If he did well there, that'd be all that teams needed to see. Still, I dunno that anyone can question that he's likely the best ST coach in the NFL (Bones would be either 1a or 2, depending on criteria).

So...

I look at who we have and who's likely to stay... and why... and that changes a little depending on which coaches come (like if Kyle Shanahan is the HC, Quick might stay, but if Payton, Patricia or McDaniel comes, he goes). And that changes our draft needs a little... But I also look at what we already spent.

Asshole Face is the best for Goff and the Rams by far and it's not close. I've pounded the table so much, my hand looks like a catcher's mitt.

To not pick Payton is to not maximize the investment in Goff.

The Rams can't express ANY interest in Payton during the first round of interviews because once they've entered into negotiations for compensation, they're likely to see cancellations. After the first round of interviews, they'll have TONS more information.

And who knows, someone like McVay may blow them away and they may see the next Adam Gase and not want to miss out.

That said, we'll know nothing about any Payton interest until after all the initial interviews. At the earliest.

I'm still plugging more info into the ol' Pattern-o-meter (lord, do I need a better name... and no "-inator" names... for any Phineas and Ferb fans...LOL) so I see guys rise and fall.

One thing that hasn't changed since before the season is that the best system for Goff is the EP (but we may not be able to supply him with the WRs to run it...) and the WCO exception to that is the Asshole Face WCO. It just so happens that Asshole Face is the best QB whisperer of our generation.

If Payton either starts hiring people in Nawlins or the Rams emphatically put Payton out of the running, then I'd have to go with McVay.

He has the right combination of offensive chops AND leadership necessary to be the kind of HC I see being successful IN THIS SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES.

 

[PressureD41]

Good post, I enjoyed it

 

[TheDYVKX]

I don't see Payton as realistic, but I'd love to get him. I just don't think it'll happen. The Saints have to be willing, he has to be willing, we'd need to agree on a contract with Payton, both teams need to agree on compensation, it just seems unlikely.

Of realistic candidates, Sean McVay is my guy. Then Kyle Shanahan. My list is basically yours, in order actually. So..agreed.

 

[Mackeyser]

DHPotW = Dead Horse Post of the Week.

It stems from an effort not to enter into multiple threads and simply repost the same info over and over.

So in an effort to self-deprecate and aggregate these takes, I started this. It's meant as a running theme.

This happened to be a list (could be a rant or just a persistent take)...cuz I'd basically been posting this or parts of it in several threads and once I realize that that's where I'm headed... I sorta save it up and put it in one post... and then either just stick to that thread or let it go.

 

[-X-]

Shoulda gone to that Miami party with the Giants.
Passing it out like pez.

 

[Mackeyser]

I don't see Payton as realistic, but I'd love to get him. I just don't think it'll happen. The Saints have to be willing, he has to be willing, we'd need to agree on a contract with Payton, both teams need to agree on compensation, it just seems unlikely.

Of realistic candidates, Sean McVay is my guy. Then Kyle Shanahan. My list is basically yours, in order actually. So..agreed.

If he's traded, he already has a contract. The only issue would be trade comp. With Tom Benson's ailing health, it's pretty clear that between Payton and Brees, they'd like to address those salaries. The ownership group is trying to tidy things up in the event of a possible sale or ownership reorganization.

Also, don't underestimate how they might be tired of finishing 7-9. Sometimes, a person just needs a change of scenery and that's especially true with coaches.

Ultimately, we'll know when the Rams hire an HC or if Payton hires people to replace those fired. Until then, we can't know anything about the Rams' intentions for reasons stated.

If I had to bet, I'd wager that McVay is the guy. Demoff is a guy who likes to be seen as someone who "finds" guys. Well, he feels he was one of few who "found" Greg Schiano, which is silly cuz he was on the map due to several of the players he sent to the pros. Same with McVay. The good news is that unlike Schiano, McVay looks to be the best fit of all the available candidates (Payton not technically being available).

The upside of that is that he wants to emphasize a strong run game.

 

[TheDYVKX]

If he's traded, he already has a contract. The only issue would be trade comp. With Tom Benson's ailing health, it's pretty clear that between Payton and Brees, they'd like to address those salaries. The ownership group is trying to tidy things up in the event of a possible sale or ownership reorganization.

Also, don't underestimate how they might be tired of finishing 7-9. Sometimes, a person just needs a change of scenery and that's especially true with coaches.

Ultimately, we'll know when the Rams hire an HC or if Payton hires people to replace those fired. Until then, we can't know anything about the Rams' intentions for reasons stated.

If I had to bet, I'd wager that McVay is the guy. Demoff is a guy who likes to be seen as someone who "finds" guys. Well, he feels he was one of few who "found" Greg Schiano, which is silly cuz he was on the map due to several of the players he sent to the pros. Same with McVay. The good news is that unlike Schiano, McVay looks to be the best fit of all the available candidates (Payton not technically being available).

The upside of that is that he wants to emphasize a strong run game.

No. Trades for head coaches don't work the same way. You're basically giving them compensation to release the coach, and then you hire him. You would need to negotiate a new deal for that to happen. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/02/teams-can-still-trade-for-head-coaches/

As for all that, it's possible. Just needs a lot to go right.

 

[ArkyRamsFan]

Mackeyser,
Not sure what you mean by the "EP" offense that New England runs. What does it consist of and why are WRs required to be smarter than the average bear?

P.S. if you get that allusion I know about how old you may be!!!!

 

[Merlin]

Damn man, that was longer than an @jrry32 mock draft!!! Nice job dude, good read there.

 

[jrry32]

Mackeyser,
Not sure what you mean by the "EP" offense that New England runs. What does it consist of and why are WRs required to be smarter than the average bear?

P.S. if you get that allusion I know about how old you may be!!!!

"EP offense" or "E-P offense/system" means Erhardt-Perkins system/offense. It's one of the three main base offenses we see in the NFL today (along with the WCO and the Air Coryell). The E-P system uses verbiage for concepts to simplify the system in comparison to the WCO which is much more verbose (making it a more complex system to learn and call in that respect).

The reason it takes smarter WRs to run the New England version of it is because it relies heavily on option routes and route adjustments. The WRs are expected to adjust on the fly after the snap based on the play being called by the defense and the positioning of the defender. The offenses uses option routes (where the WR has a variety of options to attack different coverages), sight adjustments (WR adjusts the route to account for a blitzing defender), conversion routes (changing the route based on the coverage being shown), and choice routes (changing the route based on the defender's positioning). It asks a lot of WRs mentally.

If they aren't reading the defense correctly or don't know their assignments, they won't be on the same page as the QB. That's a major problem in the offense. Here's a good article that breaks it down:
http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/22/tom-brady-patriots-charlie-weis-option-routes

Of course, that's just New England's version. Peyton Manning also ran the E-P system throughout his career. It wasn't nearly as complex as the Patriots' version of the offense. Instead, Manning's E-P system was based on execution rather than deception.

 

[Mackeyser]

@jrry32 summed it up more succinctly and more clearly than I was doing, so I just deleted my post.

@ArkyRamsFan well, the EP has been a "record" setting offense... Yeah, I'm old enough...lol. Old enough that some of my first records were classical music/story records... On 78rpm WAX, not even vinyl...

 

[Mackeyser]

Not trying to bump, just adding to the conversation in light of further information.

We DO NOT want McVay coaching the 49ers. He has the ability to turn the 9ers around in a heartbeat. He's the kind of coach that will infuse a young team with BELIEF.

They have pieces on D. They can salvage their OL. What if they get Romo? Trade down from the #2 to stockpile picks and take a stud WR?

Now, all of a sudden... the 9ers have a young team with a veteran QB led by a QB whisperer BELIEVING.

What people miss is that if we lose Shanahan to Denver, Vance Joseph to SD, McVay to the 9ers and Lynn to Buffalo...

Are we content with Patricia?

I'm pretty good with that, but I'm NOT okay with McVay going to the 9ers.

Of all the coaches up for jobs, the most "transformative" of the coaches I see out there is McVay. The more inputs I get, the more he separates himself (health issues had me behind in my research).

Let's be clear. Why do I say this? Cuz some might think I got this voodoo or I make stuff up...

Every single interview or piece of information, bar none, is thematic. I have the time, so I venture down the youtube rabbit hole as well as take the time to "use de google". This singular theme isn't just rare, it's extraordinarily rare. It means that McVay's rare in that he's got the most ingenious disinformation campaign going on in the information age...ever. OR... he is what they say he is, which is this... He's a guy that transcends his age... that people feel cheated for not knowing longer (as Chris Cooley stated and I'm certain he wasn't alone in his feelings about McVay)... that he inspires with his knowledge and presence and has been doing this for YEARS. Understand, he's 30, NOW, but he's been this way for YEARS.

In all that time, I can't find ONE disgruntled, "man, that McVay is an a-hole" type output. Not. One. Not from a current or former player, coach, scout, roommate... NO ONE.

It takes a super strong magnet to get all the iron shavings to align. Even then, they almost never truly align perfectly. You need a REALLY, REALLY strong field, and even then you sometimes have to shake the shavings a bit. And people aren't as consistent as iron shavings...

So when there's a young coaching prodigy who's not JUST an Xs and Os prodigy, but a leadership prodigy... we just HAVE to have him.

Moreover, if for whatever reason Demoff doesn't go with him, that scares the crap out of me, unless he gets Asshole Face. For me, McVay is closing the gap, not because Payton is less of the QB whisperer he is, but because I'm becoming more aware of exactly how much of a leadership prodigy McVay is. I'm simply learning how massive this young coach's potential is... and it's scary.

The LAST thing I want with us facing Carroll and Arians twice a year is to also face McVay...

I think McVay is the young coach this team needs to get these players to BELIEVE that they can win...in this division...in this league...consistently...all the way to the Super Bowl.

And you know if I didn't wholeheartedly believe it. I wouldn't say it.