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https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/09/nfl-rams-cowboys-divisional-round-matchups/
Cowboys vs. Rams: 5 key matchups that will decide Saturday's game
By: Cameron DaSilva
Rob Havenstein vs. DeMarcus Lawrence
It was somewhat surprising to see Havenstein sign a huge contract extension this past offseason, but he’s showing exactly why the Rams were right to lock him up. He’s been the team’s best offensive lineman and one of the top right tackles in the NFL this season, holding his own against some of the best pass rushers in football. He’ll meet another one in Lawrence, whom he faced in Week 4 of the 2017 season.
In that game, Lawrence had a sack, a quarterback hit and a tackle for loss against Havenstein, including a forced fumble. The hit Jared Goff took from Lawrence was on a naked boot, so it wasn’t Havenstein’s fault, but the strip-sack absolutely was. Fortunately, Havenstein recovered the loose ball, but Lawrence beat him easily on that rush.
Goff has a tendency to fumble the ball when he’s hit in the pocket, and any turnover in this one could prove to be the difference in a win or loss. Havenstein has to step up and protect Goff from front-side pressure.
Aaron Donald vs. Connor Williams
Just as the Rams will have their hands full with Lawrence, so will the Cowboys with Donald. Dallas is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to allowing interior pressure, and it just so happens that Donald is the best inside pass rusher in the league. Williams started against the Seahawks and could get the call again if Xavier Su’a-Filo can’t go, but either way, Donald has a huge advantage.
The Rams like to move Donald around the defensive line, but in this one, it’d be best to keep him at right defensive tackle, allowing him to rush against Williams or Su’a-Filo, depending on who plays. There’s little reason to subject Donald to facing Zack Martin, who might be the best right guard in the league.
Let Donald feast on the rookie or Su’a-Filo because more often than not, he’s going to win that battle if he’s not consistently double-teamed.
Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters vs. Amari Cooper
Cooper is Dak Prescott’s go-to receiver, and rightfully so. He’s among the best route runners in the league, and neither of the Rams’ outside cornerbacks has the quickness to match Cooper. Considering that defensive coordinator Wade Phillips likes to keep his corners on their respective sides – Peters on the right, Talib on the left – it’s hard to tell which one will see more of Cooper on Saturday.
Either way, the Cowboys have the advantage. Cooper has had a lot of past success against Peters in the AFC West, and while Talib has played well against the former Raiders wideout, he hasn’t looked like the same player this season.
Limiting Cooper’s production will go a long way toward the Rams stopping the Cowboys’ passing attack because he is far and away Dallas’ best receiver. The Rams just don’t have a great secondary to match him.
Jared Goff vs. Dak Prescott
Obviously Goff and Prescott won’t be on the field at the same time the way the players in the above matchups will be, but the better quarterback could very well earn his team the win. Neither player is in the elite class of quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady or Drew Brees. Goff and Prescott are arguably the worst two quarterbacks in the playoffs, depending on how you view the postseason version of Nick Foles. They’re also prone to turnovers, which could be the deciding factor in this one.
Goff and Prescott each fumbled 12 times in the regular season, which was the most in the NFL. Prescott threw eight interceptions to Goff’s 12, so it’s not as if either guy was adept at protecting the football.
Both the Rams and Cowboys will go as far as their quarterbacks will take them, and a disastrous performance from either could sink his team. Goff has to play the way he did pre-Week 12 bye rather than the version the Rams got after the week off.
Rams LBs vs. Ezekiel Elliott
No team allowed more yards per carry than the Rams this season, and no player in the NFL had more rushing yards than Elliott. Something’s got to give, and if the Rams can’t stop the Pro Bowl running back, they’re going to have major problems.
That’s not to say they can’t win if Elliott rushes for 100 yards and a touchdown. They’ve shown multiple times this season that they can overcome strong rushing performances by opposing backs. However, if the Cowboys keep it close and are allowed to run the ball as they please, they’ll be able to control the clock and keep the Rams offense on the sideline.
Mark Barron and Cory Littleton really have to step up in this one, both against the run and in coverage against Elliott. He’s the catalyst that makes Dallas’ offense go, and allowing him to rack up yardage could prove costly for the Rams.
https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/09/nfl-rams-divisional-round-history-home-cowboys/
History shows home teams absolutely own the divisional round
By: Cameron DaSilva
In the regular season, playing at home is a big advantage. In the postseason, it’s an even greater edge.
The Los Angeles Rams will be playing in front of their home crowd on Saturday night against the Dallas Cowboys with the Coliseum expected to be packed in primetime. A win and the Rams move onto the conference championship where they’ll either host another home game against the Eagles or travel to New Orleans for a rematch with the Saints.
If history is any indicator of what home-field advantage means in the divisional round, the Rams are in great shape. In playoff history, home teams are a whopping 152-62 in the divisional round. That’s a winning percentage of .710.
In the wild-card round, home teams still have a better winning percentage than teams on the road, going 90-56 (.616), but it’s not nearly as big of a gap as the second round. The same goes for the conference championship where home teams are 94-46 (.671).
So what’s the reasoning behind this massive gap between home and away teams in the divisional round? Well, part of it has to do with the seeding differential. In the wild-card round, the matchups are 4 vs. 5 and 3 vs. 6. In the divisional round, you’re guaranteed to get the first and second seeds facing lower levels of competition.
For instance, the top-seeded Saints are hosting the sixth-seeded Eagles thanks to their upset over the Bears. That’s a favorable matchup for New Orleans, especially at home. The same goes for the Chiefs in the AFC, who are hosting the No. 6 seed, Indianapolis.
For that reason alone, the divisional round presents much better matchups for the home teams than the wild card or conference championships. Under the current format, it’s always the two best teams in each conference playing at home.
As for the Rams specifically, they’ve been phenomenal at home in the second round. They’re 7-2 all-time in such games with those seven wins being the eighth-most of any franchise. By comparison, the Rams are 0-2 at home in the wild-card round and 4-4 in the conference championship.
https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/12/nfl-rams-cowboys-final-score-divisional-round/
Final score prediction for Cowboys vs. Rams in divisional round
By: Cameron DaSilva
The wait is almost over as the Los Angeles Rams will take on the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round on Saturday night. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on FOX with a trip to the conference championship game on the line – a game neither the Rams nor Cowboys have reached in more than 15 years.
The Rams are favored by seven points over Dallas, but in the playoffs, the spread isn’t always the best predictor of who will win. After all, there were three upsets in this year’s wild-card round alone.
So how exactly will Saturday’s game go? Much of that depends on two things: The Rams’ run defense and Jared Goff. If both of those areas fail, Los Angeles is probably going to come up short again, just as it did last year. If the Rams can shut down Ezekiel Elliott and Goff takes care of the football, this should be a victory for L.A.
At least that’s how it looks on paper. We all know how things change once the ball is booted in the air and stats, trends and past history are thrown out the window.
The Rams’ offense is as good as they come in the NFL today, and it’s going to be too much for the Cowboys to keep up with. Dak Prescott isn’t a quarterback you want throwing the ball 35 times in a game, but if the Rams jump out to a 14-point lead, that’s exactly what he’ll have to do.
If it’s the other way around and Dallas builds a fairly large lead, that could spell trouble for the Rams. They can’t stop the run, allowing a league-high 5.1 yards per carry this season. Elliott led the NFL in rushing and the offense goes through him, not Prescott.
Dallas’ front-seven is among the best in football, boasting two supremely athletic linebackers in Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. They have the speed and quickness to cover sideline to sideline, which not only makes it difficult for Goff to throw over the middle, but it also makes it hard for Todd Gurley to rip off big runs on the outside.
In the end, the Rams will do just enough to win this one and move on to the NFC title game. It won’t be easy and they’re not going to score 40 points, but they will come away victorious, reaching their first conference championship since 2001.
Final score prediction: Rams 28, Cowboys 24
