Let's say the Colts want to bring back Manning for a year or two, with Luck as a backup, and go into Win One For Peyton mode.
Does anybody really think this team can return to Super Bowl contention within the next year or two? Seriously?
To have any outside chance at rebuilding in a hurry, the Colts would have to re-sign several of their veteran free agents, notably Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday and Robert Mathis. That's a lot of money, a massive cap hit the Colts would have to swallow for years to come, a financial burden that would limit their ability to build around Luck when his time comes.
Let's say the Colts keep Manning for one year and then trade him. They would take a $28.8 million cap hit the year he leaves. Add Luck's contract and his backup, you're spending nearly $35 million on quarterbacks. They will not be competitive.
Let's say the Colts keep Manning for two years and then trade him. (I'm tossing out this option for conversation's sake; there's no way Luck is coming here, or should come here, if he's sitting for two years). In that case, the Colts will take an immediate $19.2 million cap hit on the remainder of Manning's contract. Add Luck's contract and a backup, you're looking at about $27 million in quarterbacks.
As team owner Jim Irsay said during the Manning negotiations shortly after the lockout, you can't field a competitive team when the quarterback is counting $20 million against the cap.
And let's not even entertain this goofy idea of paying Manning his option bonus in March and then trading him; that would be a $38.8 million cap hit. They'll be using me at the mike linebacker.
It's Manning or Luck, Luck or Manning.
Do you spend mega-millions to take a chance on a 36-year-old quarterback who has endured three neck surgeries in 19 months, or a highly touted rookie who will cost next-to-nothing and whose minimal cap hit will allow the team to spend lots of cash surrounding him with talent?
Either you're building for now, or you're building for the future. Given these circumstances, it's impossible to do both. For the umpteenth time, this is not another Aaron Rodgers situation; he was the 24th pick in the draft. Luck will be the first pick in the draft, and he will have the leverage that comes with being the first pick in the draft.