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View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2854989-upstart-buffalo-bills-have-a-legit-chance-to-take-the-afc-east
Upstart Buffalo Bills Have a Legit Chance to Take the AFC East
The New England Patriots' 10-year stranglehold on the AFC East could come to an end this season courtesy of the Buffalo Bills.
That isn't an indictment of this year's Patriots, because they are still counted among the NFL's best. Rather, the Bills have built a highly competitive roster capable of challenging the Patriots' supremacy. The two teams meet Sunday at New Era Field in a battle of unbeatens to determine the early front-runner for the division crown.
The Patriots aren't infallible. They seem like it at times because the roster is well-coached, experienced and highly adaptable, and of course they've won three championships in the last five seasons.
"They're the defending champs and no one's come close to even touching them at this point. The games have been pretty much been over by halftime," head coach Sean McDermott said, per Syracuse.com's Matt Parrino. "We've got to focus on what we do in our routine, in our process."
Though they have been dominant in their three games, the Patriots have weaknesses to exploit.
They feature the league's best defense, but the offense has significant question marks along the offensive line and at wide receiver because of injuries.
The Bills, meanwhile, opened their season with a 3-0 record for just the third time in 26 years. It's an unusual, albeit well-earned, start. Buffalo's 19-point differential against weak opposition creates some warning signs, but the team also won when and where it counts.
Bills Mafia is about to experience arguably the most important home game in Buffalo's recent history with a team capable of pulling the upset and taking an early division lead. To do so and eventually dethrone the Patriots, three areas are key to the entire season, starting with the Bills' fantastic defense.
Under Pressure
Defense wins championships, or so they say. The Bills' expectations aren't that lofty; a division crown would be a nice start. Either way, Buffalo's defense serves as the team's backbone.
McDermott's unit ranks fifth overall in total defense and is tied for fifth in scoring defense. Those numbers are misleading. Usually, that type of statement means the previous numbers aren't indicative of quality play. It's the opposite in this case. According to the Democrat & Chronicle's Sal Maiorana, the Bills rank first overall in fewest yards allowed per drive (24.8), third in touchdown percentage per drive (16.8) and No. 1 in percentage of three-and-outs forced (36.2).
The Bills D makes life miserable on opposing quarterbacks because it doesn't allow chunk plays—which are vital in today's air-it-out league. According to ESPN's Bill Barnwell, Buffalo has allowed a league-low nine passing plays of 30 or more yards since the start of the 2018 campaign. The secondary ranks among the league's best with Tre'Davious White serving as a shutdown corner and a versatile pair of safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, who contribute in a variety of ways.
As good as the Bills defense is, a significant piece of the puzzle is missing. The defensive line isn't winning one-on-one matchups to create pressure. Buffalo has managed only seven sacks through three games. Jerry Hughes leads the group with 1.5 sacks. A year ago, Hughes accumulated a whopping 74 quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus. Obviously, he's not on the same pace this season.
"That's big. Being able to affect the quarterback is big," McDermott said, per Parrino. "Stopping the run and being able to affect the quarterback, and there were times [against Cincinnati] I thought it was good enough and there are other times it wasn't good enough. So that's another area we have to continue to grow and work on."
Ironically, the Patriots may be the ideal opponent to inject life into the Bills' listless pass rush.
New England's veteran center, David Andrews, is out of the lineup because of blood clots. Andrews' replacement, Ted Karras, has allowed a sack, two quarterbacks hits and another pressure through three games, per The Athletic's Jeff Howe. Plus, officials have called him for two holding penalties. The Bills have an advantage with either Star Lotulelei or Ed Oliver lining up over the center.
Left tackle is an even bigger concern. The Patriots placed Isaiah Wynn on injured reserve with a toe injury after the team's Week 2 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Wynn was New England's highest-graded offensive lineman through the first two games, per PFF. Hughes should be able to take advantage of Marshall Newhouse, whom the Patriots signed off the street two weeks ago. Newhouse has surrendered a sack and three quarterback hits with two holding penalties for good measure in two games.
By pressuring Brady, the Bills can be aggressive with their secondary and take advantage of the fact that the Patriots no longer have Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman has a rib injury and Josh Gordon injured his finger Sunday against the New York Jets.
Pressure is coming, one way or the other. If the Bills generate enough against the Patriots, expectations will continue to grow, especially if the team's new-look offense holds up its end of the bargain.
Fortifications Up Front
The Bills' offensive line isn't great, but it is leaps and bounds better than the woeful group the offense featured last season.
General manager Brandon Beane made a concerted effort to fortify Buffalo's offensive line in the offseason with multiple free-agent signings and a second-round draft pick. The line's improvement has made life easier on all parties.
Quarterback Josh Allen already has worked from more clean pockets.
"As long as we continue to handle the fundamentals, we can be an explosive group," right tackle Ty Nsekhe said last week, per The Athletic's Tim Graham.
"We're setting the tone as a line. We're setting a tone about dominating the line of scrimmage. As long as we keep building off each game, each circumstance, we'll only get better every week."
Quality offensive line depth isn't common around the league. The Bills have seven starting-caliber blockers, though right guard Jon Feliciano suffered a neck injury Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. If Feliciano misses extended time, rookie Cody Ford would move to right guard and Nsekhe would start at right tackle, and there would likely be little drop-off overall.
More importantly, the group has brought a different demeanor this season, starting with Ford.
"These dudes are grown-ass men," tight end Lee Smith said. "... As a young player, [Ford] just needs to understand that there's a line, but by all means, you defend your quarterback. Nobody messes with our quarterback."
The increased level of physicality does allow the Bills to set the tone, which is partially why they rank fifth overall in rushing offense. Buffalo's front is now capable of dominating in spurts. The rest of the offense has opened up as a result.
As Josh Allen Goes...
So goes Buffalo. The second-year quarterback doesn't need to play hero ball, but he still does.
"He's such a competitor that sometimes he doesn't want the play to end," offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said, per the Associated Press' John Wawrow.
"We're still working on that because he is strong, he is competitive and you'd have to ask him this, but there's probably a play that he doesn't feel he can't make with his athletic ability. I think that's an encouraging sign of him just playing the game the right way for us to help our team."
The hardest part for any young quarterback is knowing when to eat a play and throw the ball away instead of trying to make something happen.
One series in Sunday's contest defined exactly who Allen is at this point in his career.
On first down, Allen fumbled the snap and fell down. He stayed with the play, grabbed the ball, got up, rolled to his right and threw a short completion. On second down, Allen felt pressure, navigated the pocket, relied on his athleticism and turned a potential negative play into another short gain. On third down, Allen dropped back from center, hit his back foot, attempted a timing passing and completely missed his streaking target.
This is Allen in a nutshell. His natural tools are outstanding. No one will say otherwise. But he must become more consistent and efficient from the pocket, which he's done to a degree with a 64.1 completion percentage through three games. Otherwise, the fantastic defense, improved offensive front and added skill weapons won't matter.
His biggest test will come Sunday. The Patriots own the league's No. 1 defense. In fact, New England's defense is the first this century to surrender zero touchdowns in four consecutive games, according to Bleacher Report's Brad Gagnon.
Of course, Bill Belichick will have a game plan to rattle and confuse Allen. How the second-year signal-caller performs will show where he is in his maturation. A strong performance would give the Bills an added advantage through the rest of the regular season.
Looking Forward
Sunday's matchup takes on added importance because both franchises will continue to benefit from weak schedules.
As such, the Bills know they can't fall behind the Patriots early in the season, as New England has proved over the years that it can take care of business against overmatched teams.
After Buffalo, the Patriots don't face another team with a winning record (through three weeks) until Week 9. Amazingly, the Bills have an easier path. Buffalo won't play an opponent with a winning record until Week 13. On top of that, McDermott's squad still has six contests with foes that have yet to win a game.
Neither team has faced anyone of consequence, but each has done what it is supposed to do: beat those placed in front of them.
Now comes the hard part for the Bills after years of feeling inferior. Buffalo has the defense and enough offense to finally topple the Patriots.
Eventually, David will slay Goliath, and there's no better time than this weekend for that to occur, which would make Buffalo the team to beat in the AFC East.
