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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...-qb-brock-osweiler-other-free-agents-walk-nfl
Teams with a combined .408 win percentage and two playoff victories in the past five NFL seasons have raided the Denver Broncos' Super Bowl-winning roster during the first days of free agency.
Jacksonville, Houston and Chicago quickly committed more than $80 million in guarantees for defensive lineman Malik Jackson, quarterback Brock Osweilerand linebacker Danny Trevathan. No team's free agents commanded more guaranteed money than that Denver trio did early in free agency. The Broncos' Von Miller (franchise player) and C.J. Anderson (restricted free agent) account for millions more in potential guarantees, which further distances Denver from the rest of the league.
The activity has made Denver the talk of free agency, even though the Broncos have signed just one unrestricted free agent to this point: Kansas City offensive lineman Donald Stephenson.
A longtime NFL executive with a Super Bowl ring asked rhetorically whether the Broncos should have done more advance work to protect their own. An agent thought Broncos general manager John Elway's ego was the biggest factor in free agency thus far, though he did not necessarily consider this a bad thing. A pro personnel director and offensive coordinator offered thoughts on the Broncos' handling of Osweiler, specifically.
My own early take -- that the Texans took at least as much risk in signing Osweiler as the Broncos did in letting him walk -- expands here to consider this $80 million-plus Denver exodus. It's early for final declarations, but as I look at Denver and consider what league insiders are saying, the basic conclusion is that the Broncos don't need their heads examined.
Winning the compensatory game
Denver, Seattle and New England finished first, second and third in 2016 compensatory picks, if we value them conveniently (if imperfectly) using the old draft value chart. The Broncos gained third-, fourth- and sixth-round picks worth 149.8 points on the chart after adding Owen Daniels and Darian Stewart while subtracting Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin, Nate Irving, Will Montgomery, Rahim Moore and Jacob Tamme last offseason.
The 2017 comp picks Denver adds after signing Stephenson and losing Jackson, Osweiler and Trevathan will become additionally versatile assets next offseason as the NFL lifts a long-standing ban on trading compensatory selections.
Seattle owes its 2016 comp pick haul to the teams that signed James Carpenter, Jeron Johnson, Byron Maxwell, O'Brien Schofield and Malcolm Smith. (Ahtyba Rubin was the only UFA signed by Seattle.) The Patriots ranked just behind Seattle on the comp pick list after losing Akeem Ayers, Brandon Browner, Jonathan Casillas, Darrelle Revis, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Vince Wilfork. (Jabaal Sheard was New England's lone UFA addition.)
Some of those former Seahawks and Patriots met expectations, but they combined for just two one-and-done playoff appearances.
Defense can survive
Jackson would dominate the Super Bowl if the Broncos could get Carolina into third-and-long said he thought Denver would be OK defensively.
"They have enough that it will not show up in a big way," this coordinator said. "They still have the pass-rushers, and that young guy, the Missouri guy [Shane Ray], could be better, as well. Maybe they can find a way to get all of them on the field."
The personnel director thought replacing Trevathan would be the biggest challenge, based on all he did for the Broncos' defense, but he described that loss as the sort of thing every team goes through from time to time.
Despite perceptions, Broncos expected this kind of start to free agency
The Broncos expected, and in some cases planned for, the many departures from their team to start free agency.
Acquiring Mark Sanchez was a first step. Sanchez and Osweiler both had 86.6 passer ratings over the past two seasons. Sanchez owns a higher Total QBR score over that span, but Osweiler is the one with the potential to become much more, and so the Broncos still must raise their ceiling at the position.
"They won with the quarterback not screwing it up," the personnel director said. "It is a risky play for both Houston and Denver. It can make Houston geniuses or run them out of town. Elway has more credibility and leeway. He can say, 'Hey, the kid did not want to stay here.' He is also saying, 'Trust me, I will get us a guy.'"
An offensive coordinator who questioned Osweiler's athleticism changed his mind after seeing the quarterback play against Cincinnati and New England. The coordinator liked how Osweiler slid in the pocket to buy time, showing better instincts. He also thought the system in Houston, like the one in Denver, could help Osweiler improve over time. But this coordinator did not think Denver blew it, either.
"[Gary] Kubiak is good, and they will manufacture something," the coordinator said. "The defense is good. They will get the left tackle back. When you have to throw it to win, [Mark] Sanchez is not that guy. Do they pick one? Do they pick their next Osweiler? Do they make a play for [Mike] Glennon? What about [AJ] McCarron?"
Glennon? McCarron? Colin Kaepernick? A quarterback in the draft? The next move belongs to Elway. That has never been a bad thing for the Broncos.
Teams with a combined .408 win percentage and two playoff victories in the past five NFL seasons have raided the Denver Broncos' Super Bowl-winning roster during the first days of free agency.
Jacksonville, Houston and Chicago quickly committed more than $80 million in guarantees for defensive lineman Malik Jackson, quarterback Brock Osweilerand linebacker Danny Trevathan. No team's free agents commanded more guaranteed money than that Denver trio did early in free agency. The Broncos' Von Miller (franchise player) and C.J. Anderson (restricted free agent) account for millions more in potential guarantees, which further distances Denver from the rest of the league.
The activity has made Denver the talk of free agency, even though the Broncos have signed just one unrestricted free agent to this point: Kansas City offensive lineman Donald Stephenson.
A longtime NFL executive with a Super Bowl ring asked rhetorically whether the Broncos should have done more advance work to protect their own. An agent thought Broncos general manager John Elway's ego was the biggest factor in free agency thus far, though he did not necessarily consider this a bad thing. A pro personnel director and offensive coordinator offered thoughts on the Broncos' handling of Osweiler, specifically.
My own early take -- that the Texans took at least as much risk in signing Osweiler as the Broncos did in letting him walk -- expands here to consider this $80 million-plus Denver exodus. It's early for final declarations, but as I look at Denver and consider what league insiders are saying, the basic conclusion is that the Broncos don't need their heads examined.
Winning the compensatory game
Denver, Seattle and New England finished first, second and third in 2016 compensatory picks, if we value them conveniently (if imperfectly) using the old draft value chart. The Broncos gained third-, fourth- and sixth-round picks worth 149.8 points on the chart after adding Owen Daniels and Darian Stewart while subtracting Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin, Nate Irving, Will Montgomery, Rahim Moore and Jacob Tamme last offseason.
The 2017 comp picks Denver adds after signing Stephenson and losing Jackson, Osweiler and Trevathan will become additionally versatile assets next offseason as the NFL lifts a long-standing ban on trading compensatory selections.
Seattle owes its 2016 comp pick haul to the teams that signed James Carpenter, Jeron Johnson, Byron Maxwell, O'Brien Schofield and Malcolm Smith. (Ahtyba Rubin was the only UFA signed by Seattle.) The Patriots ranked just behind Seattle on the comp pick list after losing Akeem Ayers, Brandon Browner, Jonathan Casillas, Darrelle Revis, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Vince Wilfork. (Jabaal Sheard was New England's lone UFA addition.)
Some of those former Seahawks and Patriots met expectations, but they combined for just two one-and-done playoff appearances.
Defense can survive
Jackson would dominate the Super Bowl if the Broncos could get Carolina into third-and-long said he thought Denver would be OK defensively.
"They have enough that it will not show up in a big way," this coordinator said. "They still have the pass-rushers, and that young guy, the Missouri guy [Shane Ray], could be better, as well. Maybe they can find a way to get all of them on the field."
The personnel director thought replacing Trevathan would be the biggest challenge, based on all he did for the Broncos' defense, but he described that loss as the sort of thing every team goes through from time to time.
Despite perceptions, Broncos expected this kind of start to free agency
The Broncos expected, and in some cases planned for, the many departures from their team to start free agency.
Acquiring Mark Sanchez was a first step. Sanchez and Osweiler both had 86.6 passer ratings over the past two seasons. Sanchez owns a higher Total QBR score over that span, but Osweiler is the one with the potential to become much more, and so the Broncos still must raise their ceiling at the position.
"They won with the quarterback not screwing it up," the personnel director said. "It is a risky play for both Houston and Denver. It can make Houston geniuses or run them out of town. Elway has more credibility and leeway. He can say, 'Hey, the kid did not want to stay here.' He is also saying, 'Trust me, I will get us a guy.'"
An offensive coordinator who questioned Osweiler's athleticism changed his mind after seeing the quarterback play against Cincinnati and New England. The coordinator liked how Osweiler slid in the pocket to buy time, showing better instincts. He also thought the system in Houston, like the one in Denver, could help Osweiler improve over time. But this coordinator did not think Denver blew it, either.
"[Gary] Kubiak is good, and they will manufacture something," the coordinator said. "The defense is good. They will get the left tackle back. When you have to throw it to win, [Mark] Sanchez is not that guy. Do they pick one? Do they pick their next Osweiler? Do they make a play for [Mike] Glennon? What about [AJ] McCarron?"
Glennon? McCarron? Colin Kaepernick? A quarterback in the draft? The next move belongs to Elway. That has never been a bad thing for the Broncos.
