Breaking down this weekend's four divisional-round playoff games

[Prime Time]

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Breaking Down the NFL’s Elite Eight
An in-depth look at both sides of the ball for this weekend's four divisional-round playoff games
By Andy Benoit

Rob Carr/Getty Images
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Patriots offense vs. Ravens defense
It’s as if Baltimore’s makeshift secondary was sprinkled with fairy dust just before the wild-card game at Pittsburgh. Nobody could have guessed that guys like Rashaan Melvin and Anthony Levine would outplay a receiving corps of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton. It helped that Baltimore’s four-man pass rush erupted in the second half.

The no-name corners aren’t the key this week; the Patriots’ passing attack is focused largely between the field numbers, where linebackers and safeties are primary defenders. It’s vital that the Ravens disrupt Rob Gronkowski’s timing off the line of scrimmage. He’ll burn them, especially in the seams off play-action, if given a clean release. Courtney Upshaw will be a critical component here on base downs. He can exert physicality when Gronk is in his usual tight end spot or aligned in the slot. Upshaw, however (like almost any defender) will need help—something the Ravens can most easily distribute out of zone coverage. They were great in this capacity against Pittsburgh.

If the Ravens go man-to-man, it will be safety Will Hill drawing the Gronkowski matchup. The talented-but-oft-troubled ex-Giant has been a Godsend for this secondary. And he has won several wars in man coverage against tight ends this season, including Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates.

Ravens offense vs. Patriots defense
It’s a myth that running the ball is mandatory for setting up play-action, but as Baltimore’s wild-card performance showed, a good running game propagates stronger play-action. The Ravens did not have impressive final rushing numbers—only 49 yards on 25 runs – but they were effective just enough on zone-stretch concepts in the first half (Justin Forsett 41 yards on six carries) to set up their moving-pocket play-action game in the second half. That’s precisely how Gary Kubiak’s system is designed to work.

They’ll have to be even better on the ground this week. The Patriots, for one, have bulk along their defensive line, starting with Vince Wilfork, who should line up as a nose-shade against nimble-but-undersized center Jeremy Zuttah. If Zuttah can’t reach around and seal the interior defensive lineman, the stretch concepts don’t work.

Secondly, being a man-based defense, the Patriots are less susceptible to play-action than are the zone-based Steelers. (In man coverage a lot of the defenders are looking at their receivers and don’t see—and therefore don’t react to—the play fakes.) But a man coverage defense is vulnerable against crossing patterns and misdirection routes, which the Ravens often employ out of their fake zone-stretch runs.

Still, don’t be surprised if Joe Flacco has more straight dropback attempts in this one. Other ways to beat man-to-man is to stack receivers, put them in motion and run intersecting routes off the line of scrimmage—all tactics Kubiak will use with Steve Smith and Torrey Smith going against Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seahawks offense vs. Panthers defense
When these teams met in Week 8, the Panthers secondary stymied the Seahawks receivers. The linebackers and D-linemen bogged down in the red zone (and were aided by a few Seattle mistakes). And, most important, the Panthers controlled Russell Wilson’s running. Until the final series, that is, when the Seahawks went on a four-minute, 80-yard drive for the game-winning touchdown (tight end Luke Wilson down the seam from a closed formation, which out-leveraged Tre Boston’s man-free coverage). On that drive, Wilson had a scramble of 14 yards (versus Cover 2, pocket collapsing) and a seven-yard read-option on second-and-five.

Since that game, the Seahawks offense has become even more centered around Wilson’s mobility—not just his running but also his movement skills that recalibrate passing angles and push the action into sandlot mode. The Panthers, a strict zone-based defense, won’t be able to sustain coverage spacing and assignments against this. They’d be wise to attack and send extra rushers at Wilson, trusting that their revamped, more athletic secondary can win one-on-one battles and that Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, who play with better speed and angles than any linebacking tandem in the league, can chase down Wilson when needed.

Panthers offense vs. Seahawks defense
Carolina’s read-option rushing attack has caught fire during a five-game winning streak, but none of the defenses the Panthers faced (New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Atlanta and Arizona) have as much speed in the base package as Seattle does. It’s risky leaving defensive end Michael Bennett unblocked and trusting pulling guards and tackles to offset this by reaching athletic linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Seattle’s defensive backs are also very stout tacklers (or, in the case of safeties Earl Thomas and especially Kam Chancellor, fierce hitters).

Let’s say the Panthers need Cam Newton to make six or seven big plays in obvious passing situations. His ability to do that depends on his mechanics. He wasn’t consistent here last week; it’s unlikely he will be this week in a tough road environment against a swarming D that compels quarterbacks to play fast. The passing game will also hinge on Kelvin Benjamin’s and Greg Olsen’s ability to make contested catches against physical defensive backs.

Carolina’s best course: take downfield shots on first down. The Seahawks will be in their staple Cover-3 look. A great tactic against this is a route combination known as “four verticals.” In Carolina’s case, that means two receivers and two dual line of scrimmage tight ends running straight downfield (with the tight ends gradually drifting apart). Last week at Arizona this equation twice got receivers uncovered 20 yards downfield; Newton, unfortunately, missed a throw and a read. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula should dial up similar concepts Saturday night.

DALLAS COWBOYS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

Packers offense vs. Cowboys defense
It’s astonishing that Dallas’s no-name, overachieving defense has yet to truly be exposed. It helps that the offense keeps them off the field. Still, at this point, doubters (like yours truly) must tip their cap to coordinator Rod Marinelli and his men.

This isn’t to say that the Cowboys won’t have trouble against the Packers. Mike McCarthy loves to align his receivers outside the numbers and force defenders to cover in space. These wide formations also set up Green Bay’s patented quick slant and smoke screen passes. Tackling becomes critical for cornerbacks. For most of the season the Dallas corners have stayed in the same look: Brandon Carr on the left, nickel man Sterling Moore on the right and Orlando Scandrick in the slot. But against Detroit, the Cowboys matched up to personnel (based on body types and playing styles), putting Carr (with plenty of safety help) on Calvin Johnson and having Scandrick take Golden Taint.

It’ll be interesting to see if Marinelli does the same again this week. Carr and the safeties would take Jordy Nelson, making the deciding matchup Scandrick versus Randall Cobb. How this goes could depend on how quickly Dallas’s improving, high-energy (but still not frightening) pass rush forces Aaron Rodgers to throw.

Cowboys offense vs. Packers defense
As we talked about last week, the Cowboys needed to run the ball out of three-receiver sets and exploit the Lions’ lighter nickel box. In the wild-card game, DeMarco Murray had 70 yards on 14 carries out of three-wide and just five yards on five carries out of base personnel.

Granted, Detroit’s base run defense is much stouter than Green Bay’s. This week Murray and that star-studded O-line should get consistent movement against a front seven that has improved along the defensive line but has been searching for answers all season at inside linebacker. The Packers seem to have found the right answer in recent weeks, with Clay Matthews working alongside A.J. Hawk in the traditional 3-4 and Matthews working with the more athletic Sam Barrington in the “big nickel” base.

Going three-wide would put the Packers in that “big nickel.” Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan could then aid his run plays with route combinations that have receivers moving away from the ball, dragging their defender out of the picture (in football parlance this is known as an “easy release”). That would help make the inexperienced Barrington the force defender against more runs.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos offense vs. Colts defense
In the teams’ Week 1 matchup, Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns in the second quarter, including one against linebacker D’Qwell Jackson out of a base two-tight end closed formation (the Colts played base 3-4) and one as an X-iso receiver opposite trips, which drew a matchup against LaRon Landry in space (advantage Broncos—always).

If Thomas’s bum ankle is fully healed, don’t be surprised if offensive coordinator Adam Gase goes back to the pass-first approach that he and Peyton Manning used over the first 10 games of the season. There are concerns about the offensive line’s ability to sustain pass protection out of this approach, but those concerns aren’t applicable against a Colts team that has no speed rushers. Any pressure Indy generates will be via blitz—and blitzing Manning is always precarious.

The Colts, if they choose, can at least be aggressive in their blitzes given their solidity in man coverage with outside corners Vontae Davis and Greg Toler. The Broncos have a lot of formational diversity in their playbook; look for Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to line up inside in order to draw favorable matchups against Indy’s ancillary pass defenders.

Colts offense vs. Broncos defense
It’s considered bad form in football to admit that you’re incapable of running the ball; old-schoolers interpret this as unaggressive and impure. But the Colts have been so inept on the ground that even the defensive-minded Chuck Pagano and somewhat old-school coordinator Pep Hamilton have had to find euphemistic ways to politely tell the media “we can’t run.” Hamilton, through his play selection, has unequivocally told everyone the Colts can’t run. He went to the air on 20 of the first 25 snaps against the Bengals last week, even with Dan Herron actually running well on the opening series.

Herron seems to have emerged as the feature back, with undrafted rookie Tipton Zurlon serving as the No. 2, mercifully relegating Trent Richardson to bench-warming duties (something that, frankly, should have happened long ago). Herron was proficient as a check-down receiver in that wild-card win, and he’ll have to be again this Sunday. With no running game to worry about, the Broncos will keep two safeties back in man coverage. That’s the most difficult defensive look to throw downfield against, especially when it’s the Broncos, given their talent at cornerback.

 

[Prime Time]

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/08/how-to-stop-tom-brady-and-the-patriots/


Game-Planning the Patriots: An Insider’s View
Not many teams have been able to bottle up Tom Brady and company, but the Jets have had more success than most. Gang Green defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman offers some tactics for slowing, if not stopping, the Pats

By Jenny Vrentas

The Jets held Brady to under 200 passing yards in the narrow Week 16 loss. (Al Tielemans/SI/The MMQB

From October through Thanksgiving, the Patriots offense tore through opponents. During a seven-game win streak, New England averaged just shy of 40 points per game—that’s five touchdowns, a field goal and more.

But the machine can be slowed. The 3-11 Jets did it in Week 16. The Patriots won that day in New Jersey, but their output, 17 points, was their lowest with a healthy Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady playing the full game this season. “If you can control Brady—I don’t know if that’s really possible,” Rex Ryan said afterward, in a parting shot a week before he was fired as Jets head coach, “but if not, we’re the team that always gives him his biggest challenge, whether he admits it or not.”

There’s truth to that statement. An ugly 45-3 loss back in 2010 notwithstanding, in the 13 times the Jets played the Patriots during Ryan’s six-year tenure, New York found ways to flummox Brady with pressure up front—real or perceived—and mixed coverages. The Jets were responsible for two of Brady’s four lowest passer ratings during that span: 53.1 in a Jets win in New Jersey in 2009 and 53.5 in another Jets home win in 2013.

So this year, with the road to the Super Bowl for the AFC again running through Foxborough, The MMQB tapped the insight of Ryan’s defensive coordinator and co-schemer, Dennis Thurman. How do you game plan for Tom Brady and the Patriots?

Start with stopping the run. The Patriots’ running backs may not be New England’s most-renowned weapons, but the defensive game plan starts here. “It has to be your number one priority, because they can run the football effectively, and if you let them you are going to have a long day,” Thurman says. “Because now you are going to have to put that extra guy in the box, and play more single-high coverage and man-to-man on the outside, and they are really good at exploiting matchups.” True to form, at halftime of the Week 16 Jets-Patriots game, running back Jonas Gray had just three carries for four yards. The Jets, much like the Patriots’ opponent in the divisional round this week, the Ravens, had a strong front seven, so the key was winning up front and players getting off their blocks and making sure tackles.

Clamping down on the run game disrupts the Pats’ ability to use play-action, at which Brady excels. (Al Tielemans/Sports Illustrated/The MMQB)

Stopping the run also helps thwart the Patriots’ play-action passing game, which is a big part of their offense. Per Pro Football Focus, 26.3 percent of Brady’s dropbacks were play-action plays, the fifth-most in the league, and he completed 101 of those passes for 1,366 yards, highest in the NFL. “They can get the ball vertically down the field, especially to their tight ends and to their slot off play-action,” Thurman says. One reason their play-action game is so good is that it marries up to their run game, which is the goal of play-action, but not always achieved. “It looks like one of their runs. You’ve got your eyes in the backfield, and now they are hitting you with a pass off play-action because you are playing with bad eyes,” Thurman adds. “If they can run the football against you, they’ll be able to play-action pass, and they’ll be able to throw the football, and pretty much do whatever they want to do.”

Blitz because you want to, not because you have to. “It’s hard to really pressure [Brady] with blitzes because he doesn’t hold the ball long,” Thurman says. “You are asking for trouble over time if that’s your game plan.” Brady averaged just 2.39 seconds from snap to throw this season, per Pro Football Focus, faster than every quarterback in the league other than Peyton Manning (2.24 seconds). Despite turnover on the offensive line (see: Logan Mankins trade), New England gave up just 26 sacks this season, fourth-fewest in the league. So how do you get to Brady? “If you are getting pressure from your front four, that’s the ultimate,” Thurman says. “And when you design pressures, some are designed to get home, some are designed to put pressure up the middle and in the quarterback’s face, and some are designed to beat the protection you believe they are going to be in at a certain point in time in the game. It’s a matter of getting the pressure you want.”

The Week 16 game is a good snapshot of what he’s talking about. The Jets sacked Brady four times in the first half, as many times as he had been sacked in the eight previous games combined. Two were simply the players up front winning their one-on-one matchups and beating the offensive linemen blocking them. The other two were schemed up. On the first, which ended New England’s first drive, the Jets showed three defenders standing over the right side of the line pre-snap, so the Patriots slid protection that way. But the Jets instead pressured from the left, leaving left tackle Nate Solder alone against three rushers. Calvin Pace, who came off the edge, and David Harris, who crossed from the other side of the formation, sacked Brady.

The Jets scrambled their looks—here stacking three defenders to make it appear the pressure would come from Brady’s right, but then dropping those three and bringing Pace in free from the left for the sack. (NFL Rewind)

Later in the first quarter the Jets used deception again. Safety Antonio Allen lined up five yards off the line, but when Brady raised his knee to trigger the snap, Allen took off sprinting toward him. Gronkowski, in position to block linebacker Demario Davis, turned away from Davis as Allen ran past. Both got through and split the sack. “It comes down to timing,” Thurman says. “And understanding the snap count.”

Disrupt Gronkowski. The Jets put on film a pretty good plan for slowing the unanimous All-Pro tight end. Gronkowski scored a touchdown against the Jets, but they held him to six catches for 31 yards, matching his previous season-low in yardage, which came against the Chiefs in Week 4 when he still wasn’t at full strength after offseason knee surgery. “The first thing is, you pay attention to him,” Thurman says. That seems simple, but opposing defenses didn’t always do that this year. Know where Gronkowski is on the field, and do everything you can to disrupt what he is doing and where he is trying to go. “Distract him and get extra little hits on him; bump here, bump there,” Thurman says. “Make him run off of his course. Throw the timing off between him and Brady.” The Jets usually did that by lining up an outside linebacker on Gronkowski at the line of scrimmage, to push him as he came off the line.

The second part of the plan was to bracket coverages around Gronkowski. “There are different ways of doubling based on where you are on the field,” Thurman says. “Sometimes it’s inside and outside; the other way is to have somebody underneath and somebody over the top, along with somebody trying to get their hands on him before he gets started. He’s that good to draw that much attention.” Here’s one example: Right before halftime, the Patriots had the ball deep in their own territory with 48 seconds left on the clock. Brady was looking for Gronkowski, but the Jets had him bracketed: linebacker Harris bumped Gronkowski out of his break and undercut the route, and New York had a safety over the top. While Brady was looking, defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson beat his block for a sack, and the Patriots kneeled out the clock.

The Jets bracketing Gronkowski, who had just 31 receiving yards, tied for his lowest production of the season. (NFL Rewind)

The Patriots try to avoid double coverage on Gronkowski by splitting him out wide. That’s the spot from which he scored his touchdown against the Jets, matched up one on one against rookie safety Calvin Pryor. But in other instances cornerbacks Darrin Walls and Marcus Williams, an undrafted rookie, fared well one-on-one with Gronkowski outside, using their hands inside the five-yard bump zone and clinging to him in coverage.

Key for a cornerback to slow Gronkowski (in yellow) is getting a good chuck in at the line. (NFL Rewind)

(Side note: The Ravens, like the Jets, have had to go deep into the well to staff their secondary. What do you tell an undrafted rookie covering Gronkowski? “There’s an age-old saying in the NFL: You respect everybody but you fear no one,” Thurman says.) One benefit the Jets had that the Ravens will not this week was the absence of top receiver Julian Edelman, who’d been sidelined with a concussion. “It made it easier because [Edelman] wasn’t part of the equation,” Thurman says. “Otherwise, they can work their tight end on linebackers and safeties, [Shane] Vereen is coming out of the backfield, and then you have to pay attention to Edelman outside with your corners.”

Remember that they’re creatures of habit. One reason the Patriots offense is unique is that it morphs week to week based on the opponent—one week beating the Colts with a power-run game and the next throwing the ball 53 times against Detroit. That seems as if it would make game-planning especially challenging for the opponent, right? “You can talk about being game-plan specific, but there are certain core things you’re going to do every week,” Thurman counters. “You have to look at the human side of it, that coaches are people, and people are creatures of habit. They are going to do certain things at a certain time from a certain position on the field, and your ability to anticipate those, and to study those as part of your preparation, becomes as big as anything.”

Coaches guard tells and tendencies like Fort Knox, but Thurman gave one example of a core concept the Patriots always have in their hip pocket: the screen game, particularly to their receivers. “Whether they’ve done it and how much they’ve done it before they play you, you know it’s something that’s very important to them,” Thurman says. “And they may not throw one early in the game, but they’ll throw one late, and all of a sudden you’re not prepared for it because they’ve lulled you to sleep. They’ll get big chunks, or a key first down at a time when you’re like, there’s no way.” He knows, because it happened to the Jets in Week 16. The Patriots were trying to preserve their one-point lead and needed a first down on a third-and-7 with 4:38 left to go in the game. Receiver Danny Amendola hadn’t caught a screen all game, but they dialed it up there, and he got the first down.

Don’t look at the personnel on the field, look at the final picture. The Patriots have those core concepts they use every week, but they’re very good at changing how they get to them. “It varies game to game, and that’s part of the intrigue,” Thurman says. Here’s an example: One week, they may use 21 personnel (one running back, one fullback, one tight end and two receivers), motion the back out of the backfield to create a two-by-two set, with two receivers on each side of the formation, and run a pass route. The next time they run that pass route, it’s out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers). Another time, they run the same route out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three receivers). “You know they like this pass route, but you’re trying to figure out, how are they going to get to it,” Thurman says. “You have to remember that the two-by-two look is more important than who’s doing it.”

Make Brady do some thinking. “There’s nothing he hasn’t seen already,” Thurman says. “But at the least, you want him to have to do some thinking, and have to do some reading, once the ball is snapped.” That’s why the Jets defenses under Ryan have had some success against Brady: They disguise pressures and coverages, and show one thing before the snap and do something else after it. Another rule of thumb: Try not to do any one thing more than any other. “Over time, we’ve tried to be more multiple in how we do things and give them a changing picture,” Thurman says. “We may bring one certain concept for a half, and then try to change and do some things differently the second half.”

The best example: During the 2010 season, the Jets beat Brady and the Patriots in the divisional round in Foxboro with a game plan that looked nothing like the one they used in their 45-3 loss just six weeks earlier. The Jets activated 11 defensive backs for the game and introduced four new coverages (one, the brainchild of safety Jim Leonhard) that packed the DBs in the middle of the field to limit Brady’s options. “That was a one-time thing,” Thurman recalls. “We felt like they thought we would stick with the same game plan that we had used the two prior games, and that all we would ask our guys to do is play better. We were able to spring it on them that time and had success.” The Jets won, 28-21, to go to the AFC Championship Game. But Thurman still recalls Brady starting to figure it out toward the end of the game. “Fortunately,” he says, “we were able to hold them off long enough.”

* * *

The Patriots’ opponent this week, the Ravens, have also demonstrated an ability through the years to throw Brady off his mark. Twice in the last six years the Ravens have knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs. And Brady’s lowest passer rating in that time frame? It came at the hands of the Ravens: 49.1, in Baltimore’s 33-14 wild-card round win against Brady in the 2009 playoffs.

The Ravens’ defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, might be one of the few defensive coaches in the league who knows Brady better than Ryan and Thurman. From 2004 to 2009, as the Patriots linebackers coach then defensive coordinator, he watched Brady in practice every day. Still, that doesn’t completely demystify one of the biggest defensive challenges in the league: Game-planning for Tom Brady.

“There aren’t any magical coverages,” Thurman says. “It’s when you do what you do as much as anything. And there are some secrets you have to keep in your pocket.”

 

[DaveFan'51]

I, for one, like the Ravens chances in this game. At the very least, I think it will be a close, down to the wire game. Get ready for all the excuses as to why the Pats lost, not how the Ravens Won!!

 

[LesBaker]

I, for one, like the Ravens chances in this game. At the very least, I think it will be a close, down to the wire game. Get ready for all the excuses as to why the Pats lost, not how the Ravens Won!!

But if the Patriots win people will say it'll be because the NFL wanted them to and so the game was fixed.........

 

[Prime Time]

But if the Patriots win people will say it'll be because the NFL wanted them to and so the game was fixed.........

There's an easy way for the NFL to stop that type of thinking by some fans - have the refs call the games fairly and consistently.

 

[LesBaker]

There's an easy way for the NFL to stop that type of thinking by some fans - have the refs call the games fairly and consistently.

And that CAN be done if the union is willing to make changes. Once that happens things will improve. If it were up to me they would place one other guy in the backfield to have an extra set of eyes to keep down the holding. One guy can't see everything going on with more than half the players on the field in that small of an area.

 

[Prime Time]

And that CAN be done if the union is willing to make changes. Once that happens things will improve. If it were up to me they would place one other guy in the backfield to have an extra set of eyes to keep down the holding. One guy can't see everything going on with more than half the players on the field in that small of an area.

The NFL can afford to have 50 refs on the field for each game and have drones hovering over the field to take film but that won't fix the problems. The rules need to be simplified and called fairly in each game for each team and refs need to be hired full-time and fired if they're continual screwups. It also wouldn't hurt if they were obligated to have Q&A's after each game so they can explain themselves.

Until that happens the NFL will continue to be at war with fans who believe the fix is in. This isn't something new but has been going on since the NFL set up shop. Teams and players have been hosed by bad calls forever but now with the technology that fans have at their disposal, the refs screwups are more glaring and the outcry is greater. The refs, in far too many games, control the outcome and have become the center of attraction/controversy. That is taking away from the integrity of the game.

 

[Boffo97]

refs need to be hired full-time

I've seen this a lot... I guess the objective is that they don't have side careers but are fully devoted to refereeing.

But what do you have them do for the rest of a full time week? I'm not sure if having them just watch tape all week would be productive.

 

[Prime Time]

I've seen this a lot... I guess the objective is that they don't have side careers but are fully devoted to refereeing.

But what do you have them do for the rest of a full time week? I'm not sure if having them just watch tape all week would be productive.

Repent.

They get the off-season to do what they want but come training camp, or even earlier, they get in the film room or whatever they have to do and sharpen their skills. Maybe when it's their only job and they're getting lots of money to do it, then they will be afraid to lose it due to laziness, stupidity, or incompetence.

 

[dieterbrock]

I've seen this a lot... I guess the objective is that they don't have side careers but are fully devoted to refereeing.

But what do you have them do for the rest of a full time week? I'm not sure if having them just watch tape all week would be productive.

I agree. I dont see any value to full time refs. What I do think makes sense is to have full time crew chiefs and have them responsible for the actions of their crew. Let them be responsible for proper and consistant adherence to rule changes etc

 

[LesBaker]

I've seen this a lot... I guess the objective is that they don't have side careers but are fully devoted to refereeing.

But what do you have them do for the rest of a full time week? I'm not sure if having them just watch tape all week would be productive.

I have a suggestion

 

[Prime Time]

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/09/nfl-divisional-playoffs-carolina-panthers-seattle-seahawks-preview/

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Carolina vs. Goliath
The divisional round has not been kind to No. 1 seeds of late. Can the Panthers pull off the impossible and defeat the defending champion Seahawks in Seattle? Plus, a pair of players in the spotlight and 10 things to watch for this weekend
By Peter King

FOXBORO, Mass. — Best weekend of football all year. The eight best teams, theoretically, playing four elimination games in the span of 31 hours. The only quibble this year with the eight-best-teams narrative, and I’ll address in detail why it’s only a minor quibble, is Carolina being in and Detroit out. But the Panthers are certainly playing like one of the best eight teams in football now, despite being 8-8-1.

The matchups, ranked in order of story lines:

1. Dallas (13-4) at Green Bay (12-4), 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday. The first Cowboys-Packers playoff game at Lambeau Field in 47 years, since the Ice Bowl. Aaron Rodgers has a bum calf, and it could play a big role in the game.

2. Baltimore (11-6) at New England (12-4), 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday. Ravens beat the Pats by 19 and 15 in the playoffs, and lost by three, in the past six seasons. Terrell Suggs and Joe Flacco have some kryptonite in them.

3. Indianapolis (12-5) at Denver (12-4), 4:40 p.m. ET, Sunday. The Jimmy Irsay Bowl. Peyton Manning-Andrew Luck III, already. Their first playoff meeting.

4. Carolina (8-8-1) at Seattle (12-4), 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday. Vegas must know something football America doesn’t. Seahawks are 11-point faves. Seattle has played Carolina in each of the past three regular seasons. Seattle’s won by four, five and four points, with each of those games in Charlotte. Is playing at CenturyLink Field worth a touchdown? We’ll see Saturday night.

Good matchups. And another story: I always get a kick out of the World Cup selection show, when the commentators come on and pick one four-team section as the Group of Death. This weekend’s four-game divisional round could be called the Weekend of Death. In the last nine divisional weekends, dating back to 2005, nine of the 18 top seeds have gone down. Half. In 2008 (Tennessee and the Giants) and 2010 (New England and Atlanta), both number one seeds lost.

So … uneasy lie the crowns on the heads of New England and Seattle, the AFC and NFC one seeds. We’ll find out quickly if history will hold this weekend. So which team, if either, will make history Saturday—the pesky Ravens or the out-of-nowhere Panthers, one of the most intriguing .500 teams in memory.

I covered the Ravens last weekend, and there’s no question they think they can walk into Foxboro and beat the Patriots in New England for the third time in the playoffs in the past six seasons. I asked Carolina coach Ron Rivera, who has had an eventful week, if his team could pull off something a little tougher: beating the defending Super Bowl champs in their raucous stadium.

“There’s always a chance,” Rivera said from his office in Charlotte. “I always say this: There’s a reason why you play the games. Remember that line from ‘Little Giants?’ The little kids are talking and one says, He may have beaten me 99 times, but that 100th time, I got him. I can see it in my team. They know. They’re playing with house money. Nobody expected them to be here. They were loose last week, and they’re loose this week.”

The Jonathan Stewart-led ground game rushed for 114 yards in a 13-9 loss to Seattle in Week 8. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Carolina has reasons (plural) to be confident flying to Seattle today. The defense finally is shed of the specter of Greg Hardy; the leaders on that side now know the on-paid-leave star defensive end is not coming back this year. The unit, also adjusting to a brand-new secondary, has grown up in the past month. Carolina’s won five straight and allowed only 11.4 defensive points a game.

Their resolve will be tested again this weekend, with standout defensive tackle Star Lotulelei lost for at least the next two weeks with a broken bone in his foot suffered when he inadvertently stepped on a teammate’s foot in practice Tuesday. But understudies Colin Cole and Kyle Love both have playoff experience, so the Panthers shouldn’t be ruined by the injury to Lotulelei.

Linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis have played brilliantly sideline-to-sideline recently, which Panthers followers have come to expect. But Charles Johnson has had a superb past eight games, and Rivera said that’s been a game-changer. He’s had 49 quarterback disruptions (sacks/hurries/quarterback hits) in that stretch. “In all honestly, the huge difference in our defense has been Charles Johnson,” said Rivera. “He’s making plays all over the field.”

On offense, the Panthers are getting used to the fact that they won’t have the versatile and athletic Cam Newton until next season, because he’s been plagued this year by rib and back injuries, the latter of which stemmed from his car accident a month ago. That’s not all bad. Knowing they can’t rely on Newton to be a do-it-all quarterback has put some pressure back on the running game to be what Rivera wants—a power-running group that can close out games. Average rushing yards per game in the past five weeks: 197.0.

‘We’re just starting to play offense the way we’d always like to play,” said Rivera. “The formula that got us to 12-4 was this: We rushed for over 100 yards in 15 of 16 games. Our first two wins this year, that was our formula. Then we had a lot of injuries and just couldn’t run the way we wanted, and we were adjusting to a lot of new faces in the passing game and on the offensive line. And Cam, it’s in his makeup to run at certain times, and there are times now you see the little hesitation. It’s been interesting to watch him mature as a quarterback.

“But I think one of the reasons this is such a fun matchup is that we’re similar to Seattle—power-running teams with mobile quarterbacks and physical defenses.”

By late in the week, Rivera was able to think clearly about a football game. After what he’s been through, that’s commendable. On Sunday night, a day after the Panthers won their wild-card game against Arizona, he woke up in his home in Charlotte, smelling smoke and hearing his security company announce over the in-home speakers in his house: “We have detected smoke in your home,” and telling him and whoever was in the home to leave.

Rivera went to the kitchen, felt the stovetop and oven, and nothing was hot. But the smoke kept coming. Turns out the flames of a fire were inside the walls of the home, and only the smoke was visible. Everyone got out of the house, including relatives in to see the game and the family’s two dogs. “We are fortunate, very fortunate,” Rivera said. “It could have been disastrous. What we learned is how important smoke detectors are.”

Rivera lost some game balls from his NFL career, and a putter signed by Arnold Palmer, and his daughter lost some jerseys given to her by Rivera’s former Bear teammates. How tough it must have been for him to get back to work, preparing to face the Super Bowl champions. Now he has to deal with a roster depleted by the loss of Lotulelei, and perhaps the loss of speedy wideout Philly Brown (shoulder), who has become a valuable part of the offense.

In January, winners are the teams that get hot at the right time, and can overcome these injuries and distractions—and who have quarterbacks and defenses playing well. I pick Seattle—but I don’t put it out of the realm of possibility that Carolina can pull off the upset of the year.

PLAYERS YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS WEEKEND

Bené Benwikere, cornerback (number 25) and Tre Boston, free safety (number 33), Carolina. The two rookies, drafted 128th (Boston, from North Carolina) and 148th (Benwikere, from San Jose State) have graduated into starting roles for the Panthers, and they’ll be vital against an improving Seattle receiving corps.

BOSE SOUND BITE OF THE WEEK

From last Sunday’s Dallas-Detroit wild-card game, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, upset about you-know-what…

Stafford to referee Pete Morelli: “Hey! Hey Pete, that’s unbelievable! That’s unbelievable and you know it! You know it is though…”

Stafford to no one in particular on the Lions bench: “How does that get overturned? How does that get overturned? Hey, that’s unbelievable! Congratulations! That’s unbelievable!”

Stafford to alternate referee Jeff Triplette: “Hey, can I get explained that one? That’s pretty awesome. Can we explain that or no?”

Triplette: “What?”

Stafford: “Just flat-out overturning a pass interference call.”

Triplette: “What he said was, was yes he did face-guard him, but there was no contact before the ball arrived.”

Stafford: “I understand, but your man saw it and threw the penalty.”

Field Judge Barry Anderson: “We can face-guard.”

Stafford: “I understand that.”

Anderson: “But there was no contact…”

Stafford: “But I’ve never in history seen one turned over. Congratulations man, first time in history that’s happened.”

REGULAR OLD QUOTES OF THE WEEK

“I can’t remember a circumstance in which a good call by one of the refs is argued about by an opposing player of the other team with his helmet off on the field, which in and of itself is supposed to be a penalty. The call is announced and then reversed without explanation. I haven’t seen that before. So I will leave it up to the experts to make the judgment as to why that happened, but I can tell you if I was a Lions fan I’d be pretty aggravated.”

—President Barack Obama, on the officiating events late in the Detroit playoff loss to Dallas.

II

“I realize it’s a bad look.”

—Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck, on his scurvy-looking neck beard.

TEN THINGS I’LL BE WATCHING FOR THIS WEEKEND

1. The fallout from the Mueller report. Before passing judgment with finality on commissioner Roger Goodell, the league’s owners wanted to wait for the former FBI director, Robert Mueller, to finish his investigation into whether Goodell or people inside the league office saw the video tape of Ray Rice striking his fiancée. Now, there will be many, and with some justification, who won’t wholly trust the Mueller report because he was engaged by the commissioner himself to investigate Goodell. But the 32 owners are the ones who will make the call on whether Goodell is in any trouble post-Rice, and from the conclusions of the report—Mueller says neither Goodell nor his staff saw the tape, and he could find no evidence to corroborate an Associated Press claim that an NFL employee accepted a copy of the damaging Rice video from a source—Goodell is very likely in the clear.

In a statement, the two club executives appointed by Goodell to be the overseers for Mueller’s group, John Mara and Art Rooney II, said: “It is clear to us that Commissioner Goodell was forthright in the statements he made to the owners about this matter, and we have every confidence that Roger Goodell is the right person to lead the league as we move forward.”


2. America scoffing. Don’t expect the majority of fans and followers of the NFL to believe Mueller’s report.

3. The two best quarterbacks, via all-time rating, playing. Aaron Rodgers, 106.0. Tony Romo 97.6. Amazing, isn’t it, that Tony Romo has a better rating, historically, than Peyton Manning (97.5), Steve Young (96.8) and Tom Brady (95.9)?

4. The most important calf in the United States. Rodgers’ strained calf will force him to be a pocket passer Sunday on the Tundra, and that’s an edge for the Cowboys. Look for Green Bay to keep in an extra blocker early and often against Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli’s unpredictable blitz schemes.

5. Gene Steratore. He will be the most closely watched referee, and his improvised crew too, during the divisional round. Steratore will have the Cowboys-Packers game. Wouldn’t be surprised if FOX has a camera isolated on him Sunday.

6. Not Chris Christie. The New York Times will be watching for his presence at Lambeau, not me.

7. Rex Ryan and Dan Quinn. Late in this week, those are the two hot names in the coaching search business. Now the question is: If Quinn lasts another three weeks, and isn’t on the market until Feb. 2, will the Jets or another team wait for him? Teams are hesitant to wait that long for one big reason: They think it inhibits the ability of a first-time head coach to get a quality staff to accompany him.

8. The Hall of Fame finalists. The focus this weekend, and in the three weeks before the vote for the 2015 class, will be on two men, as I see it: running back Terrell Davis and quarterback Kurt Warner. Both are in their first year as finalists, and both have been hotly contested in the court of public opinion—both because their careers weren’t as long as some of those already enshrined.

9. Colin Kaepernick training with Kurt Warner in Arizona. That’s a hugely encouraging sign for the 49ers—and whoever coaches them in 2015. Kaepernick will work with Warner for eight weeks this winter, before the San Francisco offseason program begins, and Warner is so good fundamentally that it will be a big help to Kaepernick.

10. Mike Shanahan. Of all the candidates out there to coach teams in 2015, Shanahan is the most intriguing. And for him to have met with Mark Davis of the Raiders after the painful Raider divorce he had with Al Davis a generation ago, that’s a huge shock. Would the Niners trust him with Kaepernick? Or the Bears to revive Jay Cutler? Or Buffalo with whatever quarterback the Bills would find? Stay tuned.

 

[Prime Time]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/09/pfts-divisional-round-picks-3/

PFT’s divisional round picks
Posted by Mike Florio on January 9, 2015

Last week, MDS and yours truly disagreed on both Saturday games. He was right, I was wrong, and now I’m in a two-game hole with seven postseason games left.

This week, we agree on the Saturday games. But we disagree on the Sunday games. Which means that we could be tied heading into the championship round, or that he could have a four-game lead with three games left.

Maybe we’ll include the Pro Bowl this year.

For our picks in all four games to be played this weekend, keep doing what you’ve been doing to reach the point where we invite you to keep doing it.

Ravens at Patriots

MDS’s take: Patriots fans have reasons to be concerned. The Ravens have a good track record of playing well in New England in the postseason, and the Ravens played some of their best football of the year in Saturday’s win over the Steelers. Baltimore is a complete team with only one weakness, the injury-riddled secondary. And even that injured secondary held up pretty well against Pittsburgh’s passing attack. Add all those things up, and it’s tempting to pick an upset. But I think the Ravens will fall just short. New England’s defense will pressure Joe Flacco into some mistakes, and Rob Gronkowski will come up with some big plays, and the Patriots will win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 21, Ravens 20

Florio’s take: The postseason history between these two teams suggests that the Ravens will thrive in Foxboro. Or perhaps it puts the Patriots on greater notice of the risk of getting caught flat-footed in the divisional round and losing, as half of all No. 1 seeds have done since 2005. While the most important pieces of the two teams are the same as they’ve been when the Ravens established a 2-1 record at New England in the playoffs, the Patriots have Darrelle Revis and a healthy Gronk. That alone should be enough to prevent the team that rebounded dramatically from a 2-2 start to the regular season from falling to 1-3 at home against Baltimore in the postseason.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Ravens 17.

Panthers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: I’ve been impressed with the Panthers the last few weeks. Winning five straight games by an average margin of 16 points per game isn’t easy against anyone in the NFL. But the reality is that playing at Seattle represents an enormous step up in competition for Carolina, and I just don’t think the Panthers are up to it. This looks like the least competitive game of the weekend, as the defending champs will cruise into the NFC Championship Game.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 28, Panthers 10.

Florio’s take: In each of the last three years, the Panthers gave Seattle all they could handle. From 16-12 in 2012 to 12-7 in 2013 to 13-9 earlier this year, coach Ron Rivera and company have shown that they know how to compete with one of the best teams in the league. But each of those games was played in Charlotte; for the first time ever, the post-Fox Panthers get a taste of Seattle. While the Panthers may be able to cover the double-digit spread, they won’t be able to advance.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 20, Panthers 10.

Cowboys at Packers

MDS’s take: Tony Romo was outstanding on Sunday against the Lions, despite a furious Detroit pass rush beating him up all day. Green Bay’s pass rush isn’t as good as Detroit’s, and Romo should be even better on Sunday at Lambeau Field. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Aaron Rodgers will be better still against Dallas’s defense. In a high-scoring game, the Packers will come out on top.

MDS’s pick: Packers 38, Cowboys 30.

Florio’s take: For the first time ever, a team that was 8-0 on the road faces a team that was 8-0 at home. But the biggest question is whether Aaron Rodgers’ torn calf muscle will hold up. Even if it does, the Cowboys have a healthy Romo — and an oversized, orange-sweatered mojo. It all adds up to Dallas punching a ticket to a return to Seattle, the scene of one of the best games of the regular season . . . and the site of the snap-bungling gaffe that gave Tony Romo the label of late-game choker.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 28, Packers 24.

Colts at Broncos

MDS’s take: All the attention will be on Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning and Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, but to me the difference in this game is the personnel on the defense. Denver has pass rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware and cornerbacks Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, and that will make life miserable for Luck. Indianapolis just doesn’t have the same kind of personnel, which means Manning can do what he does best, and exploit holes in the opposing team’s defense. The Broncos will score a lot and set up a trip to New England in the AFC Championship Game.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 30, Colts 20.

Florio’s take: Something hasn’t been right with the Broncos over the past few weeks. While the good news is that quarterback Peyton Manning has had extra time to allow his thigh (and whatever else may have been injured) to heal, the bad news is that Manning tends to overprepare when he has two weeks to get ready for a big game, with a 2-4 mark in the divisional round after earning a bye. With the Colts bumping against the ceiling that separates the NFL’s second tier from its elite, this could be Indy’s chance to break through.

Florio’s pick: Colts 24, Broncos 21.