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Shutdown Corner
Five lessons learned from the NFL's free-agency period last year
Shutdown Corner By Frank SchwabMar 3, 2016 12:21 PM
The 2015 free-agency period was one of the more interesting ones in recent memory, with plenty of big names changing teams.
We all congratulate the teams that land the big-ticket players, and think there will be a road to better days in the future. It doesn't always work out that way, of course.
[NFL free agency starts March 9. Here are Shutdown Corner's free-agent rankings foroffensive players and for defensive players and specialists. Here are the top needs for all 32 NFL teams.]
There were a lot of moving pieces in free agency last year, and it's worthwhile to take a look back at the lessons learned from an interesting free-agency period:
The Miami Dolphins didn’t hit the jackpot withNdamukong Suh, but that’s not an indictment on all mega-deals
It’s easy to look at Suh’s $114 million contract with the Dolphins as a mistake. Even if Suhrenegotiates after one year, the salary cap hits over the remainder of the contract will be enormous. And in the first year, Suh didn’t make the Pro Bowl and the Dolphins' defense got worse. Miami slipped from 12th in yards allowed and 12th in yards allowed per play in 2014 to 25th and 22nd in those respective categories last season. That’s not all Suh’s fault, but when you invest a nine-figure deal in a defensive player you don’t expect the defense to get significantly worse.
.
So the lesson is to never give that kind of a deal, right? Not exactly. Many of the other massive deals through NFL history, in which a player switches teams, have worked out fine. Mario Williams ($100 million) had 43 sacks in four seasons with theBuffalo Bills. Julius Peppers ($84 million) made three Pro Bowls in his four Chicago Bears seasons.Peyton Manning ($96 million) will be in the Denver Broncos’ ring of honor someday.
So not every massive deal is Albert Haynesworth or Nnamdi Asomugha. It’s just picking the right player to spend a small fortune on. And that’s the tough question this year: Is someone like Malik Jackson or Olivier Vernon worth all that cash?
Good luck finding a quarterback
Last year there were bidding wars for Josh McCown, and Brian Hoyer was one of the top prizes on the free-agent quarterback market. We all knew how those moves turned out before the ink dried (though, in fairness, Hoyer had a good regular season, though nobody will remember that because of the playoff debacle).
Of the top 25 quarterbacks in passing yards last season, two were acquired by their team via free agency: Drew Brees and Tyrod Taylor. Brees was a strange case, coming off a major shoulder injury and the San Diego Chargers let him hit the open market only because they had Philip Rivers waiting. Taylor had zero starts and 35 NFL attempts when the Buffalo Bills signed him, and kudos to the Bills for a savvy move.
Maybe there’s another diamond like Taylor out there, but that’s very rare. Is Brock Osweiler a rare case? Look at the contracts given to Kirk Cousinsand Sam Bradford — gambling on Osweiler is going to cost a fortune. Competent starting quarterbacks rarely hit the market, so the price of doing business with them is steep. It's a tough call on someone like Osweiler, who was up and down over his seven career starts. But, if Ryan Fitzpatrickre-signs with the New York Jets as expected, there's not much else available.
Expensive running backs remain a poor investment
Here are some of the highly-ranked free-agent running backs who changed teams last year
eMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, Frank Gore, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Reggie Bush, Roy Helu. Which of those players returned a profit on their new team’s investment? Murray and Spiller in particular were exceptional busts.
The best running back signings last year wereDeAngelo Williams by the Pittsburgh Steelers (two years, $4 million), Darren McFadden by the Dallas Cowboys (two years, $3 million) and Chris Johnson by the Arizona Cardinals (one year, $2 million). Those are modest contracts for veterans who ended up having something left in the tank. That’s far different than giving Murray $40 million over five years or Spiller $16 million over four. If the price is right, a veteran running back can help. But would you feel comfortable giving a huge deal to Doug Martin, no matter how productive he was last year, or Lamar Miller?
Cornerbacks will get paid, but they might not pay off
According to Spotrac, here are the 10 cornerbacks who got at least $15 million last year to switch teams in free agency: Darrelle Revis, Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine, Davon House, Tramon Williams, Cary Williams, Perrish Cox and Brandon Browner.
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Here are the rankings last season for those 10 cornerbacks, respectively, by Pro Football Focus: 30th, tied-69th, 110th, 103rd, 106th, 78th, 53rd, 76th, tied-69th, 118th (out of 118 qualifying cornerbacks). So one cornerback ranked better than 53rd in PFF's grades, and that was Revis, whose $70 million deal produced a disappointing season.
You know what? It won’t matter. Janoris Jenkins is going to get paid this year. So is Casey Hayward. And Prince Amukamara, Sean Smith and just about any other cornerback with a pulse. You can’t survive in the NFL without cornerback depth, and that comes at a premium in free agency. Buyer beware.
You can win big by building through free agency
We've all heard many times that you have to build a Super Bowl champion through the draft. That’s partially true. But you also need key free agents. And as shown by our defending Super Bowl champions, spending aggressively in free agency can be the ticket to a title.
Of the Denver Broncos' 12-15 best players on their Super Bowl 50 title team, DeMarcus Ware, T.J. Ward, Aqib Talib, Louis Vasquez, Emmanuel Sanders, Evan Mathis and Owen Daniels were all acquired via free agency. So was quarterback Peyton Manning, one of the greatest free-agent signings in NFL history. John Elway and the Broncos built a Super Bowl champion by being the most aggressive spenders in the NFL. That can work, too.
It’s a fallacy that you must build a championship team through the draft. It’s one tool. So is free agency. Every Super Bowl champion this century had a key free-agent addition on the roster. Teams need to use free agency as a tool to win a title. The trick is making the right moves, which is easier said than done.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him atshutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow
.
Shutdown Corner
Five lessons learned from the NFL's free-agency period last year
Shutdown Corner By Frank SchwabMar 3, 2016 12:21 PM
The 2015 free-agency period was one of the more interesting ones in recent memory, with plenty of big names changing teams.
We all congratulate the teams that land the big-ticket players, and think there will be a road to better days in the future. It doesn't always work out that way, of course.
[NFL free agency starts March 9. Here are Shutdown Corner's free-agent rankings foroffensive players and for defensive players and specialists. Here are the top needs for all 32 NFL teams.]
There were a lot of moving pieces in free agency last year, and it's worthwhile to take a look back at the lessons learned from an interesting free-agency period:
The Miami Dolphins didn’t hit the jackpot withNdamukong Suh, but that’s not an indictment on all mega-deals
It’s easy to look at Suh’s $114 million contract with the Dolphins as a mistake. Even if Suhrenegotiates after one year, the salary cap hits over the remainder of the contract will be enormous. And in the first year, Suh didn’t make the Pro Bowl and the Dolphins' defense got worse. Miami slipped from 12th in yards allowed and 12th in yards allowed per play in 2014 to 25th and 22nd in those respective categories last season. That’s not all Suh’s fault, but when you invest a nine-figure deal in a defensive player you don’t expect the defense to get significantly worse.
.
So the lesson is to never give that kind of a deal, right? Not exactly. Many of the other massive deals through NFL history, in which a player switches teams, have worked out fine. Mario Williams ($100 million) had 43 sacks in four seasons with theBuffalo Bills. Julius Peppers ($84 million) made three Pro Bowls in his four Chicago Bears seasons.Peyton Manning ($96 million) will be in the Denver Broncos’ ring of honor someday.
So not every massive deal is Albert Haynesworth or Nnamdi Asomugha. It’s just picking the right player to spend a small fortune on. And that’s the tough question this year: Is someone like Malik Jackson or Olivier Vernon worth all that cash?
Good luck finding a quarterback
Last year there were bidding wars for Josh McCown, and Brian Hoyer was one of the top prizes on the free-agent quarterback market. We all knew how those moves turned out before the ink dried (though, in fairness, Hoyer had a good regular season, though nobody will remember that because of the playoff debacle).
Of the top 25 quarterbacks in passing yards last season, two were acquired by their team via free agency: Drew Brees and Tyrod Taylor. Brees was a strange case, coming off a major shoulder injury and the San Diego Chargers let him hit the open market only because they had Philip Rivers waiting. Taylor had zero starts and 35 NFL attempts when the Buffalo Bills signed him, and kudos to the Bills for a savvy move.
Maybe there’s another diamond like Taylor out there, but that’s very rare. Is Brock Osweiler a rare case? Look at the contracts given to Kirk Cousinsand Sam Bradford — gambling on Osweiler is going to cost a fortune. Competent starting quarterbacks rarely hit the market, so the price of doing business with them is steep. It's a tough call on someone like Osweiler, who was up and down over his seven career starts. But, if Ryan Fitzpatrickre-signs with the New York Jets as expected, there's not much else available.
Expensive running backs remain a poor investment
Here are some of the highly-ranked free-agent running backs who changed teams last year
eMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, Frank Gore, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Reggie Bush, Roy Helu. Which of those players returned a profit on their new team’s investment? Murray and Spiller in particular were exceptional busts.The best running back signings last year wereDeAngelo Williams by the Pittsburgh Steelers (two years, $4 million), Darren McFadden by the Dallas Cowboys (two years, $3 million) and Chris Johnson by the Arizona Cardinals (one year, $2 million). Those are modest contracts for veterans who ended up having something left in the tank. That’s far different than giving Murray $40 million over five years or Spiller $16 million over four. If the price is right, a veteran running back can help. But would you feel comfortable giving a huge deal to Doug Martin, no matter how productive he was last year, or Lamar Miller?
Cornerbacks will get paid, but they might not pay off
According to Spotrac, here are the 10 cornerbacks who got at least $15 million last year to switch teams in free agency: Darrelle Revis, Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine, Davon House, Tramon Williams, Cary Williams, Perrish Cox and Brandon Browner.
.
Here are the rankings last season for those 10 cornerbacks, respectively, by Pro Football Focus: 30th, tied-69th, 110th, 103rd, 106th, 78th, 53rd, 76th, tied-69th, 118th (out of 118 qualifying cornerbacks). So one cornerback ranked better than 53rd in PFF's grades, and that was Revis, whose $70 million deal produced a disappointing season.
You know what? It won’t matter. Janoris Jenkins is going to get paid this year. So is Casey Hayward. And Prince Amukamara, Sean Smith and just about any other cornerback with a pulse. You can’t survive in the NFL without cornerback depth, and that comes at a premium in free agency. Buyer beware.
You can win big by building through free agency
We've all heard many times that you have to build a Super Bowl champion through the draft. That’s partially true. But you also need key free agents. And as shown by our defending Super Bowl champions, spending aggressively in free agency can be the ticket to a title.
Of the Denver Broncos' 12-15 best players on their Super Bowl 50 title team, DeMarcus Ware, T.J. Ward, Aqib Talib, Louis Vasquez, Emmanuel Sanders, Evan Mathis and Owen Daniels were all acquired via free agency. So was quarterback Peyton Manning, one of the greatest free-agent signings in NFL history. John Elway and the Broncos built a Super Bowl champion by being the most aggressive spenders in the NFL. That can work, too.
It’s a fallacy that you must build a championship team through the draft. It’s one tool. So is free agency. Every Super Bowl champion this century had a key free-agent addition on the roster. Teams need to use free agency as a tool to win a title. The trick is making the right moves, which is easier said than done.
- - - - - - -
Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him atshutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow
.
