Betting on NFL games...

[kurtisgod]

Anybody have recommendations as far as betting on games go? Certain strategies? Trends? I like all the information there is on the web available but 99% of the handicappers sites cost money.

I did recently stumble across SportsLinesAnalytics.com though. They seem pretty legit. Always nice to have another opinion on stuff like this. They give you their betting line breakdowns based on their analytics and formulas for free luckily.

I like vegasinsider.com also since they have a nice format for all the spreads across different casinos. Very easy to read and break down how the lines have shifted. Free as well.

Oddsshark.com is useful since they breakdown the % of each team the gamblers have bet on. With that info, you can do as you please.

Is there any other FREE sites that any of you would recommend? Have any bad experiences with some paid ones? I had been thinking about pulling the trigger on one or two but haven't really gotten much feedback on them. The free ones like sportslinesanalytics are nice and simple. Some more resources like that would be helpful if you all have any suggestions. Thanks

 

[VegasRam]

Insider imo is easiest to use - and Stations basically has the worst spread and money line, no natter which way your betting, but there's a lot of 'em and they're convenient.
Typically 1/2 a point on sides, 1/2 -1 on totals, and +/- 10-15 points at either side of the money lines. They tend to get most of the public.

$50 on Rams money line paid +185 and Seattle was -270. Quite a spread my opinion, but I don't gamble much.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I have bet on NFL games for years and I don't think there is any reliable formula. The games are very unpredictable, especially when the spreads are small, like 3 points. And there are a lot of them. Basically playing at home is a 3 point lean so the home team is favored. That is nearly no line. So the bookies can't even decide who they like most of the time.

Generally, if there is a big spread I take it. I consider 10 or 14 big. Vegas is daring you to. If you are in doubt always take the points and the dog. Most gamblers continually try to pick winners but professionals say you win more picking the underdogs. I have tried to keep track of that theory and it isn't true every week but seems to be on most weeks. I don't bet large amounts anymore. My success really varied according to my research time and the less time I had for it the worse I would do.

Here is one shortcut strategy that I have been using lately and it works pretty good. Mark down your picks, then look at every free site you can find and look for as big a consensus as you can find and whatever games they are picking. Mark them all down and see which ones seem to have the most support and consider them as your picks, especially if they overlap with your originals. This can take a few hours of dedicated searching but I usually come up with a few good solid choices. ( I never go to one source because the conspiracy theorist in me believes that some of the info/sights could be Vegas plants giving bad info to sway bets, especially if they are free. )

 

[HE WITH HORNS]

I've been doing quite well this season, using some of my football knowledge, and picks by the "experts".

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/

That's a good site, they actually consider the point spread there, I usually look for close to unanimous opinions on the outcome, and as long as it feels right to me, I bet it.

 

[GoldenAges]

I have a formula that I use for betting on games. I bet half of the money on what I feel are good odds bets. Example a few weeks back NE was favored by 1 at Buffalo. Easy money there. If i am betting $100 i put $50 on that and the other $50 on some underdogs and parlays. That is my formula and as long as I stick to it I usually do just fine.

Predictem.com is a good website. I look at the ATS chart which shows you some pretty decent stats on every teams record at home, away and against the total as well. For instance Tampa has been over the total for every home game and under the total for every road game. Their defense sucks at home but is better on the road and their offense struggles on the road. Ride the trends.

I watch all of the games every week, mostly condensed so that I have a good feel for how the teams matchup. It s all about matchups. I never look at what anyone else is picking. I prefer to win or lose on my own.

 

[gabriel18]

My advice would be not to bet . I was addicted to it years ago and lost a lot of money I didn't have . It's a bad habit that is hard to break . If you do bet , be very careful not to get caught up in having to bet on every game just so you can watch it .

 

[fearsomefour]

New England usually doesn't cover -7 or more on the road.
This week is a perfect example....money on the Colts.

 

[NJRamsFan]

I like to bet on home underdogs. Also, anytime the spread is 10+ take the underdog since 2002 the average margin of victory is 3 points

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I watch all of the games every week, mostly condensed so that I have a good feel for how the teams matchup. It s all about matchups. I never look at what anyone else is picking. I prefer to win or lose on my own.

I still like to get others opinions because they often have different tidbits of info that I can't get reading a chart. In the end I stick with my own feelings. Most sites liked UCLA against Standford. It was nearly unanimous. I didn't play it. Was not convinced it was a good play.

New England usually doesn't cover -7 or more on the road.
This week is a perfect example....money on the Colts.

In most cases yes but Indianapolis has a crap Oline and just aren't clicking. I would not play that one.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

This week I really like three college games. Nevada over Wyoming by 7, Northern Illinois over Miami OH by 17, and Utah over Arizona by 7. In the pros I like Tennessee by 3 over Miami and NY Jets by 6 over Washington.

Bold denotes Home team. We'll see how I do.

 

[fearsomefour]

I still like to get others opinions because they often have different tidbits of info that I can't get reading a chart. In the end I stick with my own feelings. Most sites liked UCLA against Standford. It was nearly unanimous. I didn't play it. Was not convinced it was a good play.




In most cases yes but Indianapolis has a crap Oline and just aren't clicking. I would not play that one.

Bet is made....we will see....

 

[DaveFan'51]

New England usually doesn't cover -7 or more on the road.
This week is a perfect example....money on the Colts.

This theory may be correct, but NE always seems to Crush the Colts 40 something to 3-7-10 some low score!!

 

[rdlkgliders]

Bills SD and Indy to cover
+4 +10 +10
the lines have moved maybe but this was the price I liked

 

[fearsomefour]

This theory may be correct, but NE always seems to Crush the Colts 40 something to 3-7-10 some low score!!

To the window my friend.
Three for three this weekend....which is rare for me.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

To the window my friend.
Three for three this weekend....which is rare for me.

On the tickets I bet, if the spread is tied then you lose. That is one of the things you concede for better payouts. I missed on my pro teams pretty bad this week. NFL games are very tough to pick after the first 2-3 weeks.

 

[fearsomefour]

On the tickets I bet, if the spread is tied then you lose. That is one of the things you concede for better payouts. I missed on my pro teams pretty bad this week. NFL games are very tough to pick after the first 2-3 weeks.

I had the Whiners (due for a win and O is coming around somewhat), Colts (got 7 1/2) and Browns.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Yes but you have a minimum of 4 games to bet. So if you pick the minimum for every dollar you bet it pays 10. 5 games pays 15, 6 games pays 25, 7 pays 50, 8 pays 75, 9 pays 100, and 10 pays 200.

But it is hard to hit on 4 games consistently. I used to do good on them but I had much more time to spend on it. And with a tie being a loss it really sucks. I hit on the first week of the NFL with 4 teams for 10 bucks. I had 8 I liked and should have played them all because I hit on all 8.

I used to bet bigger when I one more often. I always start small and work my way up with the winnings. There is a $2000.00 minimum bet.

I get pissed when I miss on blowouts. I had TCU over Kansas State last weekend and they tied the spread. This week I was going to take them......had them picked then changed to Nevada.......TCU wins in a blowout. I also had Oklahoma but Kansas State played tough against TCU, so I didn't put it on the final ticket. It drives me nuts. College is usually much easier than the NFL though, when you are trying to pick 4 ATS.