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Ask Dolphins, Titans why splurging on free agents is a losing strategy
February 11, 2015 12:25 pm ET
By Jason LaCanfora
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...splurging-on-free-agents-is-a-losing-strategy
It used to be, more or less, that you could evaluate free-agent classes somewhat similarly to a draft class. Give them three to four years, see how it all worked out, how they fit into the larger scheme, how much, if any, the team improved.
Seems a quaint concept these days.
As long documented, the series of five- and six-year contracts that will be announced around the NFL a month from now when the league year begins are really one-to-three-year propositions cloaked as something longer. The owners have the hammer with this CBA, and they are using it. The bulk of the money spent isn't fully guaranteed, or close to it, and it seems like each year the amount of prime talent hitting the market, particularly at the skill position, is shrinking.
So, a week before the combine -- the unofficial start of NFL free agency, where agents and team executives begin a complicated dance of laying the foundation of contracts without flaunting in the face of anti-tampering rules too overtly -- let me send out my annual reminder to teams across this land of ours.
Caveat Emptor.
Buyer Beware.
Free agency is not a panacea. Not even close.
It's not even an attractive band-aid (like the cute Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle ones our 3-year-old layers all over his wrist from time to time). It's, quite often, a faint piece of gauze that will barely conceal, if cover up at all, some of the blood and puss oozing from your roster. It remains, primarily, the fodder for the downtrodden and left behind, teams sitting on oodles of cap room, short on victories, holes all over the roster.
It looks like a quick fix. It is anything but. In this, the ultimate team sport, where continuity and camaraderie and depth and balance are so imperative, and with the salary cap serving as a parity-ensuring device, free-agent splurges on other team's players often create more problems than it solves.
And, should we need more empirical evidence to this end, let me present two more cautionary tales from the not-too-distant past: The 2013 Miami Dolphins and the 2013 Tennessee Titans. Recall, if you will, the splash these two teams made less than two years ago, setting the market at multiple positions and seeking to reverse their malaise through heavy spending. Fast forward to the present, and both of these clubs remain far from contenders. The Titans hold the second overall pick. The Dolphins collapsed in the second half again and fell far short of the playoffs. Both clubs are now trying to extrapolate themselves from many of these very same over-the-top contracts they were ever so eager to toss out there 23 months ago.
A mere two seasons have passed, barely, but oh the damage done. With ever-struggling teams like the Browns, Raiders (who wasted a bevy of cash on aged free agents a year ago), Jets and Jaguars sitting on more cap space than they could ever fathom spending, no doubt these mistakes will be repeated in the weeks to come. Some lessons are never learned. And, heaven help those intent on repeating them.
Take the middling Dolphins, for example. Jeff Ireland was their under-fire general manager at the time and owner Stephen Ross, after striking out in attempts to land Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Fisher and Peyton Manning, was trying to make a splash of sorts, with the Miami Heat and LeBron James the toasts of the town and empty seats a way of life on Sundays in South Florida.
Problem is, that splash has continued to ripple, with the Dolphins following up their 2012 record of 7-9 with an 8-8 campaign in 2013 and another ho-hum 8-8 record this past season. And now the Dolphins are mired in a cap crunch, projected to have about $2 million in cap room before an inevitable purge, still a pedestrian team and one bogged down by the decisions of two offseasons ago.
The Dolphins opted to part with linebacker Karlos Dansby that offseason, primed to throw big money at younger players at the position. The Ravens valued linebacker Dannelle Ellerbe as perhaps a $4 million per season player after helping the team win a Super Bowl in a year in which Ray Lewis was largely injured; Miami gave him a five-year, $35 million deal. Ellerbe has made $14.5 million in the first two years of that deal, yet has made little impact. I can't fathom he's in Miami in 2015, set to make a staggering $8.5 million next season. They gave Philip Wheeler, another relatively obscure linebacker, a five-year, $26 million deal. The Dolphins have already paid Wheeler $13 million over two years and would owe $3 million for 2015.
They opted to give Randy Starks the franchise tag that season, a whopping $8.45 million; Starks is very likely to be a cap casualty this season after signing a short-term deal last season. Safety Chris Clemons made $2.75 million for his one year of service in 2013. To their credit, the Dolphins secured stud corner Brent Grimes to a one-year, $5.5 million deal in 2013, and have extended him since, an anomaly in the type of overspending that doomed this Dolphins team and has doomed so many others.
On offense, Miami made Mike Wallace, a speedy but limited receiver, one of the highest-paid ever at his position, at $12 million annually. He has been a colossal bust, clashing with coach Joe Philbin throughout his tenure. The Dolphins have flirted with trading Wallace in the past and he's already pocketed more than $27 million in two suspect years and is due $10 million more in 2015 (again, I can't fathom he sees that, and I can't fathom he makes more that 65-70 percent of that total on the open market, at best).
Fellow unproductive receivers Brandon Gibson (earned $6.45 million the past two years after signing in Miami as a free agent) and Brian Hartline (re-signed with Miami in 2013 and has made $12.6 million the past two years, and won't see the $5.9 million he's due in 2015) didn't come close to living up to their deals.
Tight end Dustin Keller received $4.25 million for one year that was marred by injury; tackle Tyson Clabo received $3.5 million to try to fill a void. Backup quarterback Matt Moorepicked up $8 million on a two-year deal signed in 2013.
All of it, fairly disastrous. Nearly all of it still having ramifications on the direction and plight of this team. It's still affecting them. Still limiting them.
But they weren't alone in 2013. Not close. I can recall, in real time, wondering if, like the Dolphins, all the money the Titans were throwing around would result in any significant increase in their win total. And, as my instincts told me then, it didn't come close to making a difference. If anything, this franchise remained in a freefall, going from 6-10 in 2012 to 7-9 in 2013 to 2-14 last season.
It actually started in 2012, when the Titans gave declining linebacker Kamerion Wembley a deal that has netted him $18.5 million during the past three years. Steve Hutchinson, a once-stellar guard now at the end, also made $6.5 million in 2012, the only year of a three-year deal he would play in Tennessee. Desperate to improve a sagging offensive line, the Titans gave guard Andy Levitre a record contract for his position, with him making $19.5 million the past two years. Now, the Titans might have no choice but to run from that contract with Levitre's play steeply declining. Running back Shonn Greene ended up unproductive and out of favor, making $6.65 million the past two seasons and unlikely to see the third year of his deal.
It has been money well-spent on tight end Delanie Walker -- for while his four-year, $17.5 million seemed hefty at the time, he responded with a career year in 2014. Still, they are not solidified at quarterback -- Ryan Fitzpatrick made $3.25 million in 2013 in is lone year with the Titans, and while defensive lineman Sen'Derrick Marks left the team, Sammie Lee Hill was part of a collapsing defense and faced off-field issues as well, making $7.4 million in his two years with Tennessee.
This money, of course, has bought the Titans nothing of consequence. For however few players remain from that 2013 class in 2015, the overriding reality is that all will be long gone way before this team gets out of the bottom of the AFC, which could take quite some time and quite some doing. Trying to buy their way out, history tells us, won't work, throwing bad money after bad.
A few calculated signings here or there might help turn a good team better. Free agency, in some moderation, used strategically, can provide a boost. But you can ask Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder and Ross and the Adams family and so many others about how effective widespread spending is in unrestricted free agency. And, regardless, soon enough, I guarantee you a franchise or two will be celebrating their March marvels and toasting their free-agent riches, only to rue it a year or two later.
February 11, 2015 12:25 pm ET
By Jason LaCanfora
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer...splurging-on-free-agents-is-a-losing-strategy
It used to be, more or less, that you could evaluate free-agent classes somewhat similarly to a draft class. Give them three to four years, see how it all worked out, how they fit into the larger scheme, how much, if any, the team improved.
Seems a quaint concept these days.
As long documented, the series of five- and six-year contracts that will be announced around the NFL a month from now when the league year begins are really one-to-three-year propositions cloaked as something longer. The owners have the hammer with this CBA, and they are using it. The bulk of the money spent isn't fully guaranteed, or close to it, and it seems like each year the amount of prime talent hitting the market, particularly at the skill position, is shrinking.
So, a week before the combine -- the unofficial start of NFL free agency, where agents and team executives begin a complicated dance of laying the foundation of contracts without flaunting in the face of anti-tampering rules too overtly -- let me send out my annual reminder to teams across this land of ours.
Caveat Emptor.
Buyer Beware.
Free agency is not a panacea. Not even close.
It's not even an attractive band-aid (like the cute Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle ones our 3-year-old layers all over his wrist from time to time). It's, quite often, a faint piece of gauze that will barely conceal, if cover up at all, some of the blood and puss oozing from your roster. It remains, primarily, the fodder for the downtrodden and left behind, teams sitting on oodles of cap room, short on victories, holes all over the roster.
It looks like a quick fix. It is anything but. In this, the ultimate team sport, where continuity and camaraderie and depth and balance are so imperative, and with the salary cap serving as a parity-ensuring device, free-agent splurges on other team's players often create more problems than it solves.
And, should we need more empirical evidence to this end, let me present two more cautionary tales from the not-too-distant past: The 2013 Miami Dolphins and the 2013 Tennessee Titans. Recall, if you will, the splash these two teams made less than two years ago, setting the market at multiple positions and seeking to reverse their malaise through heavy spending. Fast forward to the present, and both of these clubs remain far from contenders. The Titans hold the second overall pick. The Dolphins collapsed in the second half again and fell far short of the playoffs. Both clubs are now trying to extrapolate themselves from many of these very same over-the-top contracts they were ever so eager to toss out there 23 months ago.
A mere two seasons have passed, barely, but oh the damage done. With ever-struggling teams like the Browns, Raiders (who wasted a bevy of cash on aged free agents a year ago), Jets and Jaguars sitting on more cap space than they could ever fathom spending, no doubt these mistakes will be repeated in the weeks to come. Some lessons are never learned. And, heaven help those intent on repeating them.
Take the middling Dolphins, for example. Jeff Ireland was their under-fire general manager at the time and owner Stephen Ross, after striking out in attempts to land Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Fisher and Peyton Manning, was trying to make a splash of sorts, with the Miami Heat and LeBron James the toasts of the town and empty seats a way of life on Sundays in South Florida.
Problem is, that splash has continued to ripple, with the Dolphins following up their 2012 record of 7-9 with an 8-8 campaign in 2013 and another ho-hum 8-8 record this past season. And now the Dolphins are mired in a cap crunch, projected to have about $2 million in cap room before an inevitable purge, still a pedestrian team and one bogged down by the decisions of two offseasons ago.
The Dolphins opted to part with linebacker Karlos Dansby that offseason, primed to throw big money at younger players at the position. The Ravens valued linebacker Dannelle Ellerbe as perhaps a $4 million per season player after helping the team win a Super Bowl in a year in which Ray Lewis was largely injured; Miami gave him a five-year, $35 million deal. Ellerbe has made $14.5 million in the first two years of that deal, yet has made little impact. I can't fathom he's in Miami in 2015, set to make a staggering $8.5 million next season. They gave Philip Wheeler, another relatively obscure linebacker, a five-year, $26 million deal. The Dolphins have already paid Wheeler $13 million over two years and would owe $3 million for 2015.
They opted to give Randy Starks the franchise tag that season, a whopping $8.45 million; Starks is very likely to be a cap casualty this season after signing a short-term deal last season. Safety Chris Clemons made $2.75 million for his one year of service in 2013. To their credit, the Dolphins secured stud corner Brent Grimes to a one-year, $5.5 million deal in 2013, and have extended him since, an anomaly in the type of overspending that doomed this Dolphins team and has doomed so many others.
On offense, Miami made Mike Wallace, a speedy but limited receiver, one of the highest-paid ever at his position, at $12 million annually. He has been a colossal bust, clashing with coach Joe Philbin throughout his tenure. The Dolphins have flirted with trading Wallace in the past and he's already pocketed more than $27 million in two suspect years and is due $10 million more in 2015 (again, I can't fathom he sees that, and I can't fathom he makes more that 65-70 percent of that total on the open market, at best).
Fellow unproductive receivers Brandon Gibson (earned $6.45 million the past two years after signing in Miami as a free agent) and Brian Hartline (re-signed with Miami in 2013 and has made $12.6 million the past two years, and won't see the $5.9 million he's due in 2015) didn't come close to living up to their deals.
Tight end Dustin Keller received $4.25 million for one year that was marred by injury; tackle Tyson Clabo received $3.5 million to try to fill a void. Backup quarterback Matt Moorepicked up $8 million on a two-year deal signed in 2013.
All of it, fairly disastrous. Nearly all of it still having ramifications on the direction and plight of this team. It's still affecting them. Still limiting them.
But they weren't alone in 2013. Not close. I can recall, in real time, wondering if, like the Dolphins, all the money the Titans were throwing around would result in any significant increase in their win total. And, as my instincts told me then, it didn't come close to making a difference. If anything, this franchise remained in a freefall, going from 6-10 in 2012 to 7-9 in 2013 to 2-14 last season.
It actually started in 2012, when the Titans gave declining linebacker Kamerion Wembley a deal that has netted him $18.5 million during the past three years. Steve Hutchinson, a once-stellar guard now at the end, also made $6.5 million in 2012, the only year of a three-year deal he would play in Tennessee. Desperate to improve a sagging offensive line, the Titans gave guard Andy Levitre a record contract for his position, with him making $19.5 million the past two years. Now, the Titans might have no choice but to run from that contract with Levitre's play steeply declining. Running back Shonn Greene ended up unproductive and out of favor, making $6.65 million the past two seasons and unlikely to see the third year of his deal.
It has been money well-spent on tight end Delanie Walker -- for while his four-year, $17.5 million seemed hefty at the time, he responded with a career year in 2014. Still, they are not solidified at quarterback -- Ryan Fitzpatrick made $3.25 million in 2013 in is lone year with the Titans, and while defensive lineman Sen'Derrick Marks left the team, Sammie Lee Hill was part of a collapsing defense and faced off-field issues as well, making $7.4 million in his two years with Tennessee.
This money, of course, has bought the Titans nothing of consequence. For however few players remain from that 2013 class in 2015, the overriding reality is that all will be long gone way before this team gets out of the bottom of the AFC, which could take quite some time and quite some doing. Trying to buy their way out, history tells us, won't work, throwing bad money after bad.
A few calculated signings here or there might help turn a good team better. Free agency, in some moderation, used strategically, can provide a boost. But you can ask Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder and Ross and the Adams family and so many others about how effective widespread spending is in unrestricted free agency. And, regardless, soon enough, I guarantee you a franchise or two will be celebrating their March marvels and toasting their free-agent riches, only to rue it a year or two later.
