Covid 19 thread

[RamFan503]

it's said that if you take more than 2000mg a day you will get digestive distress, like diarrhea and nausea. maybe lead to kidney stones.

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Yeah... I've read that before. I've been doing it for 30+ years and though I have shit my brains out a few times, it has worked well for me. Generally, I put 3 - 1000mg packages of Emergen-C in a bottle of water and sip it all day. I'm not putting 3000mg in my body all at once. I used to use buffered Vitamin C powder but EmergenC tastes better.

But that's me. Yawlz do yawlz

 

[12intheBox]

I am using the Johns Hopkins site to monitor cases and death totals.

As I write this:

438,749 confirmed cases
19,675 deaths

roughly a 4+% fatality rate

I have been expecting the fatality rate to go down as more and more tests are administered and we realize how many people have this. So far, its staying up there in the super frightening territory.

I still think there are waaaay more people who have it than the 438k - and I think we can be fairly confident that the death number is close to accurate, so I still hold out hope.

I know we cant really trust numbers that foreign governments give us (or even our own govt for that matter) - but I keep waiting to see the ratio improve.

 

[thirteen28]

I am using the Johns Hopkins site to monitor cases and death totals.

As I write this:

438,749 confirmed cases
19,675 deaths

roughly a 4+% fatality rate

I have been expecting the fatality rate to go down as more and more tests are administered and we realize how many people have this. So far, its staying up there in the super frightening territory.

I still think there are waaaay more people who have it than the 438k - and I think we can be fairly confident that the death number is close to accurate, so I still hold out hope.

I know we cant really trust numbers that foreign governments give us (or even our own govt for that matter) - but I keep waiting to see the ratio improve.

That fatality rate is not accurate due to selection bias. It only covers those that have been tested and confirmed. The number is very likely lower since those that don't develop symptoms or only develop minor symptoms are far less likely to be tested.

It also doesn't factor in variation by geography. For actual known positive tests in the US, the current death rate is about 1.4%

If someone developed a test where people could determine if they have had it at any time (including those that had mild symptoms or none whatsoever) we could get a much more accurate count.

 

[12intheBox]

That fatality rate is not accurate due to selection bias. It only covers those that have been tested and confirmed. The number is very likely lower since those that don't develop symptoms or only develop minor symptoms are far less likely to be tested.

It also doesn't factor in variation by geography. For actual known positive tests in the US, the current death rate is about 1.4%

If someone developed a test where people could determine if they have had it at any time (including those that had mild symptoms or none whatsoever) we could get a much more accurate count.

Right - as more and more people get tested - the mortality rate should go down. Maybe I'm just not being patient enough - but that what I've been waiting to see. So far, its not really coming to fruition - at least not at the rate we might expect.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Also, can't compare fatalities to current cases as some of these current cases will eventually become fatalities. Have to compare fatalities to cases 2 weeks ago. Now while that makes the mortality rate jump even higher, you are all right that the number of cases is far higher than what we've tested for so it probably brings the mortality rate back down in line with what we're seeing and most likely a bit less.

The cruise ships were oddly the most important data set that we have on this thing as it was a semi controlled environment. I see a lot of epidemiologists saying that all data sets will eventually revert to what we say there.

 

[RamFan503]

I am using the Johns Hopkins site to monitor cases and death totals.

That's the one I will be watching as well. I have it on my phone. Let's hope for positive trends. Cheers man.

 

[Merlin]

@12intheBox I'm avoiding use of the world numbers which are skewed due to disingenuous beginnings by China and the deviation in quality of health care/contain. The US numbers were right there around 1% so we were looking pretty good but after the deaths the past couple days we're sitting roughly at 1.4% (55k infected, 800 deaths).

I think that's a much closer number to reality than the world numbers in terms of what this thing will end up being here in the US.

 

[Angry Ram]

Its 1.34% in US. Just calculating from the # CNN is showing.

 

[thirteen28]

Also, can't compare fatalities to current cases as some of these current cases will eventually become fatalities. Have to compare fatalities to cases 2 weeks ago. Now while that makes the mortality rate jump even higher, you are all right that the number of cases is far higher than what we've tested for so it probably brings the mortality rate back down in line with what we're seeing and most likely a bit less.

The cruise ships were oddly the most important data set that we have on this thing as it was a semi controlled environment. I see a lot of epidemiologists saying that all data sets will eventually revert to what we say there.

That was about 3000 people too, so it's statistically significant. The demographic onboard skewed toward the elderly, who are a more vulnerable population. And cruise ships in general are an environment where there is heightened risk of spreading a virus. With all that, you still only had 17% of the people onboard test positive, half of those were asymptomatic, and the death rate was (if I'm not mistaken) around 1%.

 

[ramsplaya16]

New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity

A model predicting the progression of the novel coronavirus pandemic produced by researchers at Imperial College London set off alarms across the world and was a major factor in several governments' decisions to lock things down. But a new model from Oxford University is challenging its...

us.yahoo.com

Some professors from oxford are theorizing that this infected millions well before it was “discovered” and makes sense to me. In January my family and close friends and I all got very sick with a horrible cough, congestion and sore throat like nothing we had ever experienced before. Definitely wasn’t the flu. I am curious after reading the article above

 

[thirteen28]

New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity

A model predicting the progression of the novel coronavirus pandemic produced by researchers at Imperial College London set off alarms across the world and was a major factor in several governments' decisions to lock things down. But a new model from Oxford University is challenging its...

us.yahoo.com

Some professors from oxford are theorizing that this infected millions well before it was “discovered” and makes sense to me. In January my family and close friends and I all got very sick with a horrible cough, congestion and sore throat like nothing we had ever experienced before. Definitely wasn’t the flu. I am curious after reading the article above

I tend to believe it's been around longer than we've had confirmed cases. We had over 10,000 people a day arriving from China prior to the cutoff on January 31st, and it's likely some of those travelers brought the virus in with them. Both my wife and son had mild symptoms that would not be incompatible with what the coronavirus can produce during the time it's been going around, although I have no way of knowing it was that and not just a common cold that's been around much longer.

 

[GBRam15]

I tend to believe it's been around longer than we've had confirmed cases. We had over 10,000 people a day arriving from China prior to the cutoff on January 31st, and it's likely some of those travelers brought the virus in with them. Both my wife and son had mild symptoms that would not be incompatible with what the coronavirus can produce during the time it's been going around, although I have no way of knowing it was that and not just a common cold that's been around much longer.

My entire family got sick around late January as well. Our symptoms for the most part were fairly mild. My mother developed a dry cough that lasted roughly a week after dealing with mild fever and fatigue. Both of my nephews and brother also had coughs. Like you said, there is no way to know whether it was the common cold or not. Hopefully we can start testing for antibodies soon and get a better idea of how many people have really been infected so far.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Yeah... I've read that before. I've been doing it for 30+ years and though I have shit my brains out a few times, it has worked well for me. Generally, I put 3 - 1000mg packages of Emergen-C in a bottle of water and sip it all day. I'm not putting 3000mg in my body all at once. I used to use buffered Vitamin C powder but EmergenC tastes better.

But that's me. Yawlz do yawlz

I just make drinking orange, grapefruit and carrot juice a regular thing. I'm not disciplined enough for supplements of any kind.

 

[GBRam15]

I watched Fat, Sick, and Nearly Dead back in 2011. I must say I was NEITHER fat, nor sick, or nearly dead. I was actually quite young and fit. However, I rarely ate vegetables out of pure laziness with regards to shopping and cooking. For some odd reason, the thought of tossing a bunch of produce in a juicer and drinking it felt way more convenient to me so I decided to give juicing a try. Up until then, I would get sick pretty much every year during cold and flu season. It was nothing serious, but still annoying as hell dealing with colds that would linger for weeks on end. Since then, I rarely get sick. If I do, it is usually very mild and brief, although I have caught Norovirus twice since then which was absolutely brutal. In the spirit of this thread, I thought I’d share some of what I do that seems to work for me.

 

[ozarkram]

American military bases have gone too Health Protection Level Charlie.

 

[12intheBox]

American military bases have gone too Health Protection Level Charlie.

What does that mean?

 

[bluecoconuts]

What does that mean?

Same thing as everyone else basically. Keep social distance and shelter in place if possible, use PPE when available and necessary.

 

[-X-]

American military bases have gone too Health Protection Level Charlie.

Same thing as everyone else basically. Keep social distance and shelter in place if possible, use PPE when available and necessary.

Curious. What are the other more serious levels, and what do they mean?
If you can share that.

 

[…..]

Whew! This went down a Dostoyevskyian utopian Socialist worm hole in a hurry. Back to reality, how is everyone holding up? Still got toilet paper?

Not to ruin the fun, but In a “shit just got serious” for us kinda post, it seems our daughter in law Emma just tested positive for Covid.

She just started her new job as a Delta flight attendant last month and got feverish on a return flight from LA to Atlanta. Initially tested negative and diagnosed with strep. Our son stayed home at first, but then returned to work as a district manager for Dunkin Donuts after her initial diagnosis. But Emma just kept feeling worse and worse, so they took her back in for another test yesterday, which has come back positive today.
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Now we have those 2 and 4 grand children all on quarantine. So far the kids are all fine, and moms staying in bed. Thankfully her symptoms are not bad enough for hospitalization, but that means they just sent her home and they all gotta stay there together I guess.

Granddaughter Scarlett has her 14th birthday in a few days, we’re trying to come up with something clever we can do for her from the other side of the window.

It’s a bit worrisome to me that Alan was exposed to Emma and unwittingly went to work at dozens of different Donut stores all week. He says he’s feeling fine but...dayum, the implications of community spread are sobering to say the least.

Anyway.....not sure how to really feel right now. Positive or worried?

It seems like last week the first test 3 days for results. This week it took alittle over 24 hrs. So things ARE getting better.

 

[-X-]

It’s a bit worrisome to me that Alan was exposed to Emma and unwittingly went to work at dozens of different Donut stores all week. He says he’s feeling fine but...dayum, the implications of community spread are sobering to say the least.

Anyway.....not sure how to really feel right now. Positive or worried?

Hope everybody gets over it quick, my dude.

My feeling on this is that everyone (or at least nearly everyone) is going to come into contact with this and will eventually become infected. Just like with the flu. Everyone can still catch that. As long as there's a successful vaccine, there shouldn't be much to worry about as long as you don't have serious health problems prior to contacting it (again, same as the flu). There are over 114,000 people who had it, got better, and now carry around antibodies, so stay positive.