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Interesting article from former agent.Maybe a ram target or two in this list
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...-should-top-free-agents-tagged-players-target
Agent's Take: The exact dollar figures that top free agents should target
By Joel Corry | Former Sports Agent
March 2, 2016 7:16 pm ET
If an agent doesn't ask for big money, a player can't get it. However, there is the risk of pricing a client out of the market by making unreasonably high demands.
Free agency is a fluid process where adaptations must be made to changing market conditions. Some players are disappointed in free agency's outcome because their market never develops for a variety of reasons, such as age, poor contract year performance, injury, supply at playing position or a number of other things.
The window for teams to negotiate exclusively with their impending free agents ends on March 7. That's when all teams are allowed to negotiate with the agents of prospective unrestricted free agents during a two-day period ending at 3:59:59 p.m. ET on March 9. Players can't sign deals with new clubs until the 2016 league year and free agency officially begins at 4 p.m. ET that day. A player's ability to re-sign with his current club is allowed during the period.
The 2016 salary cap came in higher than expected at $155.27 million. Several teams having in excess of $40 million of cap space as well as the 8.37 percent cap increase should result in a strong market during the first wave of free agency, which typically is over after the first 96 hours of the signing period.
While I represented players, I was primarily responsible for setting target or asking prices for clients at the firm where I worked that were going to be on the open market. I have set target prices with total contract value, guaranteed money and first three years compensation (when applicable) for five players given a franchise or transition designation and 10 unrestricted free agents.
Remember, the target or asking prices for these players are on the high side and aren't necessarily what their actual deals will be.
Tagged Players
Kirk Cousins, Quarterback
Contract package: 5 years, $100 million
Guaranteed money: $60 million
First three years: $63 million
Biting the bullet on a $19.953 million non-exclusive franchise tag was the most sensible option for the Redskins. Placing a transition tag on Cousins would have opened the door for a quarterback-needy team with an abundance of salary cap room, like the Browns or Rams, to give him an offer sheet that would have been difficult for the Redskins to match. The exclusive tag was never a consideration, since it projects to $25.94 million.
Cousins was the Pro Football Writers of America's co-Most Improved Player of the Year for 2015. The 2012 fourth-round pick led the Redskins to the NFC East crown while earning NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors twice and finishing the season as the NFC's Offensive Player of the Month. Cousins had the NFL's best completion percentage at 69.8 percent. He was also fifth in the NFL with a 101.5 passer rating and 10th with a franchise-record 4,166 passing yards. Cousins was a top quarterback statistically during the second half of season when Washington had a 6-2 record, completing 73.6 percent of his passes for 2,212 yards with 19 touchdowns and two interceptions to post a 126.1 passer rating. Cousins has the highest completion percentage and third-best passer rating during the second half of a season since the turn of century.
As an ascending player that has demonstrated he can perform like an above average starter, Cousins wanting money consistent with the average of the top 15 quarterback contracts isn't unreasonable. In 2015, these contracts averaged approximately $19.8 million per year, contained over $56 million in guarantees (where slightly more than $35.225 million was fully guaranteed at signing) and averaged five years in length. Washington's reluctance to make this type of commitment to Cousins is also understandable since he hasn't proven he can play at a high level for more than a handful of games.
Can Kirk Cousins get $100 million in his next long-term deal? (USATSI)
Alshon Jeffery, Wide Receiver
Contract package: 5 years, $75 million
Guaranteed money: $48 million
First three years: $48 million
The Bears letting Jeffery hit the open market would have been a surprise considering 2015 first-round pick Kevin White, who missed his entire rookie season with a shin injury, is an unknown quantity. Using a franchise tag on Jeffery for $14.599 million buys the Bears more time to decide whether to make him one of the NFL's highest-paid wide receivers after nagging leg injuries limited him to nine games in 2015. The long term deals Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas signed in 2015 average between $14 million and $15 million per year. With the exception of Green, the players received between $43.5 million and $47 million of guarantees in their contracts. Jeffery, who didn't miss any games in 2013 and 2014, was one of the game's best wide receivers last season when available.
Von Miller, Outside Linebacker
Contract package: 6 years, $120 million
Guaranteed money: $65 million
First three years: $65 million
Miller made his case to be the NFL's highest-paid defensive player with dominating performances in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl 50 following him earning All-Pro honors for the fourth time in five NFL seasons. The Broncos used an exclusive franchise tag on the Super Bowl 50 MVP to prevent him from soliciting offer sheets from other teams because the cost is expected to be the same as the non-exclusive version. This rarely happens, because the exclusive tag is typically too expensive to use except with elite or Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks.
Topping defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh's six-year, $114.375 million deal, which contained $59.955 million fully guaranteed, from the Dolphins as an unrestricted free agent last year will be a difficult proposition for Miller on a franchise tag. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Miller takes less than outside linebacker Justin Houston got last summer as the Chiefs' franchise player. His six-year contract with $52.5 million in guarantees averages $16,833,333 per year. Houston's average yearly salary is 27.6 percent greater than his franchise tag. If the Broncos do the same with Miller, his multi-year deal will be in the neighborhood of $18 million per year.
Von Miller could soon be the league's highest-paid defender. (USATSI)
Olivier Vernon, Defensive End
Contract package: 5 years, $77.5 million
Guaranteed money: $50 million
First three years: $49.5 million
The Dolphins used a transition tag on a player for a second straight year. Vernon's $12.734 million figure only gives the Dolphins the right to match if he signs an offer sheet with another team. It could lead to Miami losing another player that they wanted to keep, since some of the teams with the most 2016 cap space are in need of a pass rusher. The Buccaneers, Giants and Jaguars are among those teams best positioned to put together an offer sheet that the Dolphins wouldn't match, like the Bills did with tight end Charles Clay last year.
Vernon came on like gangbusters during the second half of the year after defensive end Cameron Wake tore his left Achilles. His 81 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits) were fifth in the NFL, according Pro Football Focus. Vernon reportedly intended to use the maximum value of Cameron Jordan's five-year extension with the Saints, which averages $12 million per year including incentives and contains $33.469 million in guarantees, as a salary floor for a new deal before his strong 2015 season.
Muhammad Wilkerson, Defensive End
Contract package: 6 years, $100 million
Guaranteed money: $60.5 million
First three years: $55.5 million
Wilkerson was his usual steady self as one of the NFL's best 3-4 defensive ends. He posted a career-high 12 sacks in 2015. The broken right leg he sustained in the regular-season finale shouldn't affect his contract.
Marcell Dareus' six-year, $95.1 million contract extension (worth a maximum of $100.35 million through salary escalators) with the Buffalo Bills containing $60 million in guarantees, a record for a defensive player, is probably an important data point to Wilkerson. After receiving a $15.701 million franchise tag from the Jets, the two-time All-Pro could be trade bait, with Leonard Williams, the sixth-overall pick in last year's NFL draft, being as good as advertised and provided the Jets are convinced 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson's off-field problems behind him.
The Chiefs traded defensive end Jared Allen to the Vikings for a first-round pick (15th overall) and two third-round picks in the 2008 draft when he was franchised. A swap of 2008 sixth-round picks was also a part of the trade. Acquiring Wilkerson might interest the Jaguars, Giants or Raiders since he has the versatility to play inside or outside in 4-3 schemes.
The Jets could flip franchise player Muhammad Wikerson in a trade. (USATSI)
Unrestricted Free Agents
Bruce Irvin, Outside Linebacker
Contract package: 5 years, $50 million
Guaranteed money: $25 million
First three years: $33 million
Irvin expressed a willingness to re-sign for a slight hometown discount right after the Seahawks were eliminated from the playoffs, even though his fifth-year option for $7.751 million wasn't picked up last spring. That thinking may have changed when the Eagles prevented defensive end Vinny Curry from testing free agency by giving him a five-year, $46.25 million deal. Since familiarity can bring comfort in the NFL, Irvin has enough former Seattle assistants as defensive coordinators (Raiders' Ken Norton, Jr.) and head coaches (Jaguars' Gus Bradley and Falcons' Dan Quinn) to have options. A situation where Irvin will get more of an opportunity to rush the passer than in Seattle could be appealing.
Malik Jackson, Defensive Lineman
Contract package: 6 years, $84 million
Guaranteed money: $45 million
First three years: $46.5 million
Keeping Jackson may not feasible for the Broncos since he recently rejected an offer in the neighborhood of $12 million per year, according to KUSA's Mike Klis. Bears head coach John Fox would welcome a reunion with Jackson but may need to convince general manager Ryan Pace to make a splash in free agency. Jackson would make an already good Texans defense even more formidable. His ability to play in a variety of defensive schemes could attract interest from multiple teams, including the Jaguars, Giants and Raiders.
Malik Jackson should have plenty of suitors on the open market. (USATSI)
Alex Mack, Center
Contract package: 5 years, $46.25 million
Guaranteed money: $28 million
First three years: $28.5 million
Mack didn't void the final three years of his five-year, $42 million contract with Cleveland to make less than the $24 million remaining on the deal. When Mack signed the contract, it made him the NFL's highest-paid center. Reclaiming the distinction from Miami's Mike Pouncey, whose deal averages $8.95 million per year, is probably the goal. Mack successfully returned from a broken left leg that sidelined him for the final 11 games of the 2014 season but wasn't quite the same player as before, even though he was named to the Pro Bowl. The voided deal was a result of Cleveland matching an offer sheet he signed with Jacksonville. It is anticipated that the Jaguars will make another run at the 30-year-old. The Cardinals also have a big hole in the middle of their offensive line that Mack could fill.
Doug Martin, Running Back
Contract package: 5 years, $35 million
Guaranteed money: $17.5 million
First three years: $24 million
Martin took advantage of the Buccaneers declining to pick up his 2016 fifth-year option (for $5.621 million) with a career rebirth. He was second in the NFL with 1,402 rushing yards in 2015.
Unfortunately for Martin, it's been a buyer's market in free agency with running backs in recent years. Prior to DeMarco Murray getting a five-year, $40 million contract (worth a maximum of $42 million through salary escalators) with $21 million in guarantees from the Philadelphia Eagles last year, Michael Turner in 2008 was the last running back to switch teams in free agency with a deal over $5 million per year. He received a six-year, $34.5 million contract (with $15 million guaranteed and an additional $1.5 million in salary escalators) from the Atlanta Falcons eight years ago.
The plan would be to employ the concept of Ray Rice's front-loaded dea with Martin. The five-year contract Rice signed with the Ravens in 2012 only averaged $7 million per year, but $29 million was in the first three years. He was tops in running back compensation during 2012 and 2013 with $25 million. No team is going to frontload Martin's contract to that extreme.
New Tennessee Titans general manager Jon Robinson might appreciate Martin more than other teams after seeing how he took pressure off first-overall pick Jameis Winston as Tampa Bay's director of player personnel. He might feel using some of Tennessee's almost $50 million in cap space on Martin could do the same for 2014 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Doug Martin could have trouble breaking the bank in a buyer's market. (USATSI)
Kelechi Osemele, Offensive Lineman
Contract package: 5 years, $48.75 million
Guaranteed money: $31.5 million*
First three years: $31.5 million
*Last $7 million injury only
Guard is Osemele's best position, but he may have opened some eyes when the Ravens moved him to left tackle for the last four games of the season after Eugene Monroe went on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. No guard has come close the five-year, $47.5 million contract with $31 million in guarantees the Buccaneers gave Carl Nicks during 2012 free agency. Since then, the top guard deal signed is the five-year, $40 million contract, which includes $22.5 million in guarantees, Mike Iupati received from the Cardinals in free agency last year. Osemele's versatility helps distinguish him from Iupati. The release of left tackle William Beatty and right guard Geoff Schwartz practically ensures that the Giants will give the offensive line attention in free agency. With over $65 million in cap space, the Raiders have the ability to make signing Osemele a priority.
Brock Osweiler, Quarterback
Contract package: 2 years, $30 million*
Guaranteed money: $17.5 million
*Worth up to $40 million with escalators/incentives
Both Cousins getting franchised and Sam Bradford re-signing with the Eagles for $35 million over two years with $22 million guaranteed ($40.5 million maximum with salary escalators and incentives) makes Osweiler the best quarterback potentially available on the open market. There really isn't a direct salary comparison for Osweiler's situation. He started seven games for the Broncos after Peyton Manning's plantar fascia tear in his left foot until getting benched during the regular-season finale against the Chargers.
A long-term commitment from Denver, or any other team -- possibly the Browns or Texans -- with a contract package comparable to 2015's average starting quarterback on a veteran deal would be seem to be out of the question. The deal Alex Smith signed with the Chiefs in 2014 most closely approximates these figures. His four-year, $68 million extension contained $45 million in guarantees, of which $30 million was fully guaranteed at signing. The two-year, $24.5 million contract extension (worth a maximum of $38 million through incentives) Nick Foles received from the Rams in the preseason containing $13.792 million in guarantees may be Osweiler's salary floor. The deal also contains a mechanism for Foles to void the final year of deal with outstanding performance, which isn't going to happen.
How much will Brock Osweiler make after just seven starts? (USATSI)
Mitchell Schwartz, Offensive Tackle
Contract package: 5 years, $47.5 million
Guaranteed money: $27 million
First three years: $30 million
Schwartz is the best right tackle on an expiring rookie contract. According to PFF, he only allowed 11 knockdowns (quarterback hits or sacks) during the 2015 season. Lane Johnson's recent five-year, $56.25 million extension (worth up to $60 million through salary escalators) with the Eagles containing $35.5 million in guarantees probably changes the salary equation for Schwartz, although Johnson is expected to eventually switch to the other side of the offensive line. Right tackles are paid considerably less than left tackles despite an increasing number of top pass rushers lining up in front of them. Prior to being released by the Colts at the start of training camp, Godser Cherilius was the NFL's highest paid pure right tackle at $7 million per year. The Giants are in need of a right tackle but releasing his brother, Geoff, may make them less attractive to Schwartz.
Sean Smith, Cornerback
Contract package: 4 years, $44 million
Guaranteed money: $24 million
When Smith was a free agent in 2013, it was a bad market for cornerbacks. He signed a three-year, $18 million contract with the Chiefs. The experience could make Smith more sensitive about overplaying his hand than other free agents. Nevertheless, the six-year deal Byron Maxwell received from the Eagles in free agency last year, averaging $10.5 million per year with $25 million guaranteed, could be a salary benchmark. Smith should have a more robust market than three years ago because he has elevated his level of play since leaving Miami, and 6-foot-3 press coverage cornerbacks weighing 216 pounds are a rarity. Weakening a division rival could be a sound strategy for Oakland by making Smith a priority. Cornerback could also be a priority for the other team in the Bay Area, the 49ers, after a mass exodus at the position over the last few years. The Cowboys could use an upgrade at cornerback too.
Sean Smith could encounter a more favorable market this time around. (USATSI)
Danny Trevathan, Inside Linebacker
Contract package: 5 years, $41.25 million
Guaranteed money: $20 million
First three years: $25.5 million
Trevathan is the best inside linebacker available in a weak free-agent class after successfully making the transition from outside linebacker in new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' 3-4 defensive scheme. Unrestricted free-agent inside linebacker Shea McClellin wouldn't be missed if Trevathan was signed by the Bears to take his place. Trevathan could be on Atlanta's radar screen since Richard Smith, his former linebacker coach in Denver under Fox, is the defensive coordinator.
Eric Weddle, Safety
Contract package: 4 years, $33 million
Guaranteed money: $17.5 million
The 2015 season was a 16-game leaguewide audition for Weddle after his relationship with the Chargers started to deteriorate when his offseason efforts for a new deal were rebuffed. For the first time since 2009, Weddle didn't earn All-Pro honors. Although Weddle turned 31 in January, it's hard to imagine him being interested in a deal worth less than the $8 million per year in his expiring contract that was signed five years ago. The Raiders would be getting much younger at free safety by signing him to replace the recently retired Charles Woodson. The Panthers could also use an upgrade at safety, and coach Ron Rivera was Weddle's defensive coordinator in San Diego for three seasons (2008-10). Signing Weddle would require Kurt Coleman to move into free agent Roman Harper's strong safety slot. Weddle could also fill a pressing defensive need for the Giants.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...-should-top-free-agents-tagged-players-target
Agent's Take: The exact dollar figures that top free agents should target
By Joel Corry | Former Sports Agent
March 2, 2016 7:16 pm ET
If an agent doesn't ask for big money, a player can't get it. However, there is the risk of pricing a client out of the market by making unreasonably high demands.
Free agency is a fluid process where adaptations must be made to changing market conditions. Some players are disappointed in free agency's outcome because their market never develops for a variety of reasons, such as age, poor contract year performance, injury, supply at playing position or a number of other things.
The window for teams to negotiate exclusively with their impending free agents ends on March 7. That's when all teams are allowed to negotiate with the agents of prospective unrestricted free agents during a two-day period ending at 3:59:59 p.m. ET on March 9. Players can't sign deals with new clubs until the 2016 league year and free agency officially begins at 4 p.m. ET that day. A player's ability to re-sign with his current club is allowed during the period.
The 2016 salary cap came in higher than expected at $155.27 million. Several teams having in excess of $40 million of cap space as well as the 8.37 percent cap increase should result in a strong market during the first wave of free agency, which typically is over after the first 96 hours of the signing period.
While I represented players, I was primarily responsible for setting target or asking prices for clients at the firm where I worked that were going to be on the open market. I have set target prices with total contract value, guaranteed money and first three years compensation (when applicable) for five players given a franchise or transition designation and 10 unrestricted free agents.
Remember, the target or asking prices for these players are on the high side and aren't necessarily what their actual deals will be.
Tagged Players
Kirk Cousins, Quarterback
Contract package: 5 years, $100 million
Guaranteed money: $60 million
First three years: $63 million
Biting the bullet on a $19.953 million non-exclusive franchise tag was the most sensible option for the Redskins. Placing a transition tag on Cousins would have opened the door for a quarterback-needy team with an abundance of salary cap room, like the Browns or Rams, to give him an offer sheet that would have been difficult for the Redskins to match. The exclusive tag was never a consideration, since it projects to $25.94 million.
Cousins was the Pro Football Writers of America's co-Most Improved Player of the Year for 2015. The 2012 fourth-round pick led the Redskins to the NFC East crown while earning NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors twice and finishing the season as the NFC's Offensive Player of the Month. Cousins had the NFL's best completion percentage at 69.8 percent. He was also fifth in the NFL with a 101.5 passer rating and 10th with a franchise-record 4,166 passing yards. Cousins was a top quarterback statistically during the second half of season when Washington had a 6-2 record, completing 73.6 percent of his passes for 2,212 yards with 19 touchdowns and two interceptions to post a 126.1 passer rating. Cousins has the highest completion percentage and third-best passer rating during the second half of a season since the turn of century.
As an ascending player that has demonstrated he can perform like an above average starter, Cousins wanting money consistent with the average of the top 15 quarterback contracts isn't unreasonable. In 2015, these contracts averaged approximately $19.8 million per year, contained over $56 million in guarantees (where slightly more than $35.225 million was fully guaranteed at signing) and averaged five years in length. Washington's reluctance to make this type of commitment to Cousins is also understandable since he hasn't proven he can play at a high level for more than a handful of games.
Can Kirk Cousins get $100 million in his next long-term deal? (USATSI)
Alshon Jeffery, Wide Receiver
Contract package: 5 years, $75 million
Guaranteed money: $48 million
First three years: $48 million
The Bears letting Jeffery hit the open market would have been a surprise considering 2015 first-round pick Kevin White, who missed his entire rookie season with a shin injury, is an unknown quantity. Using a franchise tag on Jeffery for $14.599 million buys the Bears more time to decide whether to make him one of the NFL's highest-paid wide receivers after nagging leg injuries limited him to nine games in 2015. The long term deals Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas signed in 2015 average between $14 million and $15 million per year. With the exception of Green, the players received between $43.5 million and $47 million of guarantees in their contracts. Jeffery, who didn't miss any games in 2013 and 2014, was one of the game's best wide receivers last season when available.
Von Miller, Outside Linebacker
Contract package: 6 years, $120 million
Guaranteed money: $65 million
First three years: $65 million
Miller made his case to be the NFL's highest-paid defensive player with dominating performances in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl 50 following him earning All-Pro honors for the fourth time in five NFL seasons. The Broncos used an exclusive franchise tag on the Super Bowl 50 MVP to prevent him from soliciting offer sheets from other teams because the cost is expected to be the same as the non-exclusive version. This rarely happens, because the exclusive tag is typically too expensive to use except with elite or Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks.
Topping defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh's six-year, $114.375 million deal, which contained $59.955 million fully guaranteed, from the Dolphins as an unrestricted free agent last year will be a difficult proposition for Miller on a franchise tag. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Miller takes less than outside linebacker Justin Houston got last summer as the Chiefs' franchise player. His six-year contract with $52.5 million in guarantees averages $16,833,333 per year. Houston's average yearly salary is 27.6 percent greater than his franchise tag. If the Broncos do the same with Miller, his multi-year deal will be in the neighborhood of $18 million per year.
Von Miller could soon be the league's highest-paid defender. (USATSI)
Olivier Vernon, Defensive End
Contract package: 5 years, $77.5 million
Guaranteed money: $50 million
First three years: $49.5 million
The Dolphins used a transition tag on a player for a second straight year. Vernon's $12.734 million figure only gives the Dolphins the right to match if he signs an offer sheet with another team. It could lead to Miami losing another player that they wanted to keep, since some of the teams with the most 2016 cap space are in need of a pass rusher. The Buccaneers, Giants and Jaguars are among those teams best positioned to put together an offer sheet that the Dolphins wouldn't match, like the Bills did with tight end Charles Clay last year.
Vernon came on like gangbusters during the second half of the year after defensive end Cameron Wake tore his left Achilles. His 81 quarterback pressures (combined sacks, quarterback hurries and quarterback hits) were fifth in the NFL, according Pro Football Focus. Vernon reportedly intended to use the maximum value of Cameron Jordan's five-year extension with the Saints, which averages $12 million per year including incentives and contains $33.469 million in guarantees, as a salary floor for a new deal before his strong 2015 season.
Muhammad Wilkerson, Defensive End
Contract package: 6 years, $100 million
Guaranteed money: $60.5 million
First three years: $55.5 million
Wilkerson was his usual steady self as one of the NFL's best 3-4 defensive ends. He posted a career-high 12 sacks in 2015. The broken right leg he sustained in the regular-season finale shouldn't affect his contract.
Marcell Dareus' six-year, $95.1 million contract extension (worth a maximum of $100.35 million through salary escalators) with the Buffalo Bills containing $60 million in guarantees, a record for a defensive player, is probably an important data point to Wilkerson. After receiving a $15.701 million franchise tag from the Jets, the two-time All-Pro could be trade bait, with Leonard Williams, the sixth-overall pick in last year's NFL draft, being as good as advertised and provided the Jets are convinced 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson's off-field problems behind him.
The Chiefs traded defensive end Jared Allen to the Vikings for a first-round pick (15th overall) and two third-round picks in the 2008 draft when he was franchised. A swap of 2008 sixth-round picks was also a part of the trade. Acquiring Wilkerson might interest the Jaguars, Giants or Raiders since he has the versatility to play inside or outside in 4-3 schemes.
The Jets could flip franchise player Muhammad Wikerson in a trade. (USATSI)
Unrestricted Free Agents
Bruce Irvin, Outside Linebacker
Contract package: 5 years, $50 million
Guaranteed money: $25 million
First three years: $33 million
Irvin expressed a willingness to re-sign for a slight hometown discount right after the Seahawks were eliminated from the playoffs, even though his fifth-year option for $7.751 million wasn't picked up last spring. That thinking may have changed when the Eagles prevented defensive end Vinny Curry from testing free agency by giving him a five-year, $46.25 million deal. Since familiarity can bring comfort in the NFL, Irvin has enough former Seattle assistants as defensive coordinators (Raiders' Ken Norton, Jr.) and head coaches (Jaguars' Gus Bradley and Falcons' Dan Quinn) to have options. A situation where Irvin will get more of an opportunity to rush the passer than in Seattle could be appealing.
Malik Jackson, Defensive Lineman
Contract package: 6 years, $84 million
Guaranteed money: $45 million
First three years: $46.5 million
Keeping Jackson may not feasible for the Broncos since he recently rejected an offer in the neighborhood of $12 million per year, according to KUSA's Mike Klis. Bears head coach John Fox would welcome a reunion with Jackson but may need to convince general manager Ryan Pace to make a splash in free agency. Jackson would make an already good Texans defense even more formidable. His ability to play in a variety of defensive schemes could attract interest from multiple teams, including the Jaguars, Giants and Raiders.
Malik Jackson should have plenty of suitors on the open market. (USATSI)
Alex Mack, Center
Contract package: 5 years, $46.25 million
Guaranteed money: $28 million
First three years: $28.5 million
Mack didn't void the final three years of his five-year, $42 million contract with Cleveland to make less than the $24 million remaining on the deal. When Mack signed the contract, it made him the NFL's highest-paid center. Reclaiming the distinction from Miami's Mike Pouncey, whose deal averages $8.95 million per year, is probably the goal. Mack successfully returned from a broken left leg that sidelined him for the final 11 games of the 2014 season but wasn't quite the same player as before, even though he was named to the Pro Bowl. The voided deal was a result of Cleveland matching an offer sheet he signed with Jacksonville. It is anticipated that the Jaguars will make another run at the 30-year-old. The Cardinals also have a big hole in the middle of their offensive line that Mack could fill.
Doug Martin, Running Back
Contract package: 5 years, $35 million
Guaranteed money: $17.5 million
First three years: $24 million
Martin took advantage of the Buccaneers declining to pick up his 2016 fifth-year option (for $5.621 million) with a career rebirth. He was second in the NFL with 1,402 rushing yards in 2015.
Unfortunately for Martin, it's been a buyer's market in free agency with running backs in recent years. Prior to DeMarco Murray getting a five-year, $40 million contract (worth a maximum of $42 million through salary escalators) with $21 million in guarantees from the Philadelphia Eagles last year, Michael Turner in 2008 was the last running back to switch teams in free agency with a deal over $5 million per year. He received a six-year, $34.5 million contract (with $15 million guaranteed and an additional $1.5 million in salary escalators) from the Atlanta Falcons eight years ago.
The plan would be to employ the concept of Ray Rice's front-loaded dea with Martin. The five-year contract Rice signed with the Ravens in 2012 only averaged $7 million per year, but $29 million was in the first three years. He was tops in running back compensation during 2012 and 2013 with $25 million. No team is going to frontload Martin's contract to that extreme.
New Tennessee Titans general manager Jon Robinson might appreciate Martin more than other teams after seeing how he took pressure off first-overall pick Jameis Winston as Tampa Bay's director of player personnel. He might feel using some of Tennessee's almost $50 million in cap space on Martin could do the same for 2014 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Doug Martin could have trouble breaking the bank in a buyer's market. (USATSI)
Kelechi Osemele, Offensive Lineman
Contract package: 5 years, $48.75 million
Guaranteed money: $31.5 million*
First three years: $31.5 million
*Last $7 million injury only
Guard is Osemele's best position, but he may have opened some eyes when the Ravens moved him to left tackle for the last four games of the season after Eugene Monroe went on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. No guard has come close the five-year, $47.5 million contract with $31 million in guarantees the Buccaneers gave Carl Nicks during 2012 free agency. Since then, the top guard deal signed is the five-year, $40 million contract, which includes $22.5 million in guarantees, Mike Iupati received from the Cardinals in free agency last year. Osemele's versatility helps distinguish him from Iupati. The release of left tackle William Beatty and right guard Geoff Schwartz practically ensures that the Giants will give the offensive line attention in free agency. With over $65 million in cap space, the Raiders have the ability to make signing Osemele a priority.
Brock Osweiler, Quarterback
Contract package: 2 years, $30 million*
Guaranteed money: $17.5 million
*Worth up to $40 million with escalators/incentives
Both Cousins getting franchised and Sam Bradford re-signing with the Eagles for $35 million over two years with $22 million guaranteed ($40.5 million maximum with salary escalators and incentives) makes Osweiler the best quarterback potentially available on the open market. There really isn't a direct salary comparison for Osweiler's situation. He started seven games for the Broncos after Peyton Manning's plantar fascia tear in his left foot until getting benched during the regular-season finale against the Chargers.
A long-term commitment from Denver, or any other team -- possibly the Browns or Texans -- with a contract package comparable to 2015's average starting quarterback on a veteran deal would be seem to be out of the question. The deal Alex Smith signed with the Chiefs in 2014 most closely approximates these figures. His four-year, $68 million extension contained $45 million in guarantees, of which $30 million was fully guaranteed at signing. The two-year, $24.5 million contract extension (worth a maximum of $38 million through incentives) Nick Foles received from the Rams in the preseason containing $13.792 million in guarantees may be Osweiler's salary floor. The deal also contains a mechanism for Foles to void the final year of deal with outstanding performance, which isn't going to happen.
How much will Brock Osweiler make after just seven starts? (USATSI)
Mitchell Schwartz, Offensive Tackle
Contract package: 5 years, $47.5 million
Guaranteed money: $27 million
First three years: $30 million
Schwartz is the best right tackle on an expiring rookie contract. According to PFF, he only allowed 11 knockdowns (quarterback hits or sacks) during the 2015 season. Lane Johnson's recent five-year, $56.25 million extension (worth up to $60 million through salary escalators) with the Eagles containing $35.5 million in guarantees probably changes the salary equation for Schwartz, although Johnson is expected to eventually switch to the other side of the offensive line. Right tackles are paid considerably less than left tackles despite an increasing number of top pass rushers lining up in front of them. Prior to being released by the Colts at the start of training camp, Godser Cherilius was the NFL's highest paid pure right tackle at $7 million per year. The Giants are in need of a right tackle but releasing his brother, Geoff, may make them less attractive to Schwartz.
Sean Smith, Cornerback
Contract package: 4 years, $44 million
Guaranteed money: $24 million
When Smith was a free agent in 2013, it was a bad market for cornerbacks. He signed a three-year, $18 million contract with the Chiefs. The experience could make Smith more sensitive about overplaying his hand than other free agents. Nevertheless, the six-year deal Byron Maxwell received from the Eagles in free agency last year, averaging $10.5 million per year with $25 million guaranteed, could be a salary benchmark. Smith should have a more robust market than three years ago because he has elevated his level of play since leaving Miami, and 6-foot-3 press coverage cornerbacks weighing 216 pounds are a rarity. Weakening a division rival could be a sound strategy for Oakland by making Smith a priority. Cornerback could also be a priority for the other team in the Bay Area, the 49ers, after a mass exodus at the position over the last few years. The Cowboys could use an upgrade at cornerback too.
Sean Smith could encounter a more favorable market this time around. (USATSI)
Danny Trevathan, Inside Linebacker
Contract package: 5 years, $41.25 million
Guaranteed money: $20 million
First three years: $25.5 million
Trevathan is the best inside linebacker available in a weak free-agent class after successfully making the transition from outside linebacker in new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' 3-4 defensive scheme. Unrestricted free-agent inside linebacker Shea McClellin wouldn't be missed if Trevathan was signed by the Bears to take his place. Trevathan could be on Atlanta's radar screen since Richard Smith, his former linebacker coach in Denver under Fox, is the defensive coordinator.
Eric Weddle, Safety
Contract package: 4 years, $33 million
Guaranteed money: $17.5 million
The 2015 season was a 16-game leaguewide audition for Weddle after his relationship with the Chargers started to deteriorate when his offseason efforts for a new deal were rebuffed. For the first time since 2009, Weddle didn't earn All-Pro honors. Although Weddle turned 31 in January, it's hard to imagine him being interested in a deal worth less than the $8 million per year in his expiring contract that was signed five years ago. The Raiders would be getting much younger at free safety by signing him to replace the recently retired Charles Woodson. The Panthers could also use an upgrade at safety, and coach Ron Rivera was Weddle's defensive coordinator in San Diego for three seasons (2008-10). Signing Weddle would require Kurt Coleman to move into free agent Roman Harper's strong safety slot. Weddle could also fill a pressing defensive need for the Giants.
