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I posted the Rams and any of their 2022 opponents from this article:
Barnwell ranks Achilles' heels for 14 Super Bowl hopefuls: What the Packers, Bills, Rams lack
Let's run through the league's Super Bowl hopefuls and identify what look to be their Achilles' heels heading into the season.
Funny how the 9er's don't make an appearance
Weaknesses of best NFL teams in 2022: Achilles' heels for 14 Super Bowl contenders, including Packers, Bills, Rams, Cowboy
It's impossible for any NFL front office to build a perfect roster in the salary-cap era. All 32 teams have a weakness, and over the course of a season opposing teams will find that sore spot and pick on it. As good as the Bengals were last postseason, the clear weaknesses on their roster were offensive line and cornerback Eli Apple. The Rams struggled for most of Super Bowl LVI, but their pass rush dominated the interior of Cincinnati's line in the second half, and Cooper Kupp beat an isolated Apple for the championship-winning touchdown.Let's run through the league's top playoff contenders and identify their Achilles' heel heading into the preseason. Those weaknesses will change as each team begins to deal with injuries; we've already seen one Super Bowl contender develop a much bigger problem at a key position because of a serious training camp injury. What looks like a weakness now might be a strength by January, and vice versa.
Picking the "top playoff contenders" can be thorny business, so I've chosen to let ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) take the heat on this one. Since 14 teams make the playoffs, I'm going with the 14 that FPI believes have the best chance of advancing. Some notable teams are left out of the mix as a result, so if you're a fan of the Bengals, Patriots, Saints, Titans or 49ers, direct your nasty messages to the algorithm.
I'll start with the teams whose issues are the least likely to sink the ship before working my way to the most vexing problems. As a result, I'll start with the team FPI projects as the most likely to make the playoffs:
Buffalo Bills
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 74.8%Achilles' heel: Guard
The league's best roster on paper doesn't have many holes. The Bills aren't quite as deep as they were in years past, owing to the contracts they've had to pay to stars Josh Allen, Matt Milano and Tre'Davious White. They have missed on a couple of draft picks, although not as many as most teams. You could maybe point toward cornerback, where they will have White coming back from a torn left ACL and rookie first-round pick Kaiir Elam penciled in to start, but even that seems like a position they'll have solved by midseason.
Instead, I'll look up front, where there are more questions than answers. Dion Dawkins is locked in at left tackle, while veteran center Mitch Morse returns after what should have been a Pro Bowl season. No issues there. Spencer Brown, a third-round pick last year, took over the right tackle job during his rookie season and forced the organization to push Daryl Williams inside before cutting Williams. Stats LLC credited Brown with just a half-sack allowed in 2021, and any further development would give Buffalo an excellent pair of tackles on the edge.
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Guard, on the other hand, could be a problem. The Bills have options, but each of their choices has questions. Rodger Saffold was signed away from the Titans in free agency, but he is 34 and suffered injuries in a car crash before camp began. On the right side, they are expected to open the season with Ryan Bates, who had just one career start before taking every snap over the final five games last season. The Bears signed him to a four-year, $17 million offer sheet this offseason, and the Bills matched the deal with the plan of keeping Bates installed as the starter.
Buffalo has other options. Ike Boettger started 17 games from 2020 to 2021, although he's beginning camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list after tearing his left Achilles in December. Cody Ford, a second-round pick in 2019 and one of the rare misses for general manager Brandon Beane, can either play as the team's swing tackle or settle in at guard. Journeyman David Quessenberry and Greg Van Roten, both of whom were starters on other rosters a year ago, will compete for playing time. Both of these guys would likely be Week 1 starters in other places if healthy. Only by Buffalo's lofty standards would guard be considered an issue.
Los Angeles Rams
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 65.8%Achilles' heel: Running back
You could make a clear case the most pressing concern for the Rams right now is Matthew Stafford's elbow, given that the quarterback is dealing with tendinitis before the season even begins. The backup is John Wolford, who has posted a 51.3 passer rating on his first 42 NFL attempts. You have to figure the Rams would make a move for someone if Stafford's injury doesn't improve, but the most notable quarterback left on the market is Jimmy Garoppolo, and the 49ers are not likely to be desperate to help their divisional rival.
Aside from quarterback, running back is a meaningful concern for Los Angeles. The track record of running backs returning from Achilles tears is spotty at best, and while Cam Akers should be commended for his efforts to get back on the field last season, he was a disaster during the Rams' run toward a Super Bowl title. He ran for just six first downs on 67 carries and fumbled twice during what ended up as a narrow win over the Bucs in the NFC divisional round. Coach Sean McVay clearly believes in the third-year back, who assumed the main role after his return, but Akers might never again look like the back who seemed to be on the verge of a breakout before his injury.
McVay doesn't seem to have the same affection for Darrell Henderson Jr., who dealt with knee and quad injuries along with COVID-19 during the second half of last season. He has been handed the ball for more than 20 carries in a game only once, something Akers has done five times in what amounts to 10 games as the team's starting back. Henderson has a role in the offense, but if Akers isn't up to lead duties, it seems unlikely McVay would hand Henderson a significant workload.
What would the Rams do? Rookie fifth-round pick Kyren Williams could be in the mix, but it's more likely they would head outside the organization for help. In the past, McVay's offense has coaxed big numbers out of C.J. Anderson and revitalized Sony Michel's career. In a league in which there are more talented backs than opportunities, the Rams would be able to make things work with D'Ernest Johnson (Browns) or Zack Moss (Bills). And if Michel he gets cut at the end of camp by the Dolphins, L.A. could even reunite with him.
Dallas Cowboys
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 70.2%Achilles' heel: Kicker
The Cowboys led the league in points scored in spite of their kicking last season. Greg Zuerlein hit just under 83% of his field goals and failed on six of his 48 extra point tries, leading a cap-strapped team to cut him. It was no surprise the organization tried to find a cheaper solution at the position, especially given that it once landed on a longtime kicker in undrafted free agency by signing Dan Bailey in 2011.
Team owner Jerry Jones & Co. were probably hoping for something similar when they added Jonathan Garibay out of Texas Tech. Garibay attempted only 27 total field goals for the Red Raiders, but he went 15-of-16 on those tries a year ago and was 49-of-50 on extra points. So far, that hasn't translated to pro success, as he has reportedly struggled during camp, particularly during moments in which the Cowboys have asked him to kick on short notice to simulate clutch situations.
Not great. Dallas brought in competition to compete with Garibay in 32-year-old journeyman Lirim Hajrullahu, who made his NFL debut with Dallas a year ago. Hajrullahu went 8-for-8 on extra points and 4-for-5 on field goals during his time with the Panthers, and he hit 83.3% of his field goals during a six-year run in the CFL, but the choices here are between two unproven players. This feels like a situation Jones will be evaluating after every missed kick.
Denver Broncos
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 55.5%Achilles' heel: Linebacker
After major offseason additions at quarterback (Russell Wilson) and edge rusher (Randy Gregory), the Broncos addressed their biggest weaknesses on either side of the ball. One position that is clearly still concerning general manager George Paton, though, is off-ball linebacker, where they are still shopping for veterans. Denver brought in former Browns and Jags defender Joe Schobert for a visit, and Paton reportedly attempted to re-sign one of his former chargers in Anthony Barr before the longtime Vikings linebacker joined the Cowboys.
Until the Broncos add another player to the mix, they have one starting job locked down with Josey Jewell, who missed most of 2021 with a pectoral injury. Jewell isn't a superstar, and he can be picked on a bit in coverage, but he's a competent three-down linebacker. If he's on the field for 17 games, the Broncos should be happy with one of their starters.
The other spot is the one I suspect Paton is trying to improve. Denver let Alexander Johnson and Kenny Young leave this offseason and moved Baron Browning back to the edge, leaving a hole in the lineup. It signed Alex Singleton, who was forced onto the field out of desperation in Philadelphia. He's best as a special teams player and backup linebacker. He'll be competing with Jonas Griffith, who started the final four games of the season.
Signing Schobert or Anthony Hitchens would make sense for the Broncos, who will have to face tight ends Travis Kelce and Darren Waller four times this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 54.6%Achilles' heel: Cornerback
The Chiefs, the kings of playing it cheap at cornerback, went against their usual habit of acquiring dismissed first-round corners from other teams by using one of their own top picks at the position. Trent McDuffie, the No. 21 overall selection in April's draft, will be given the opportunity to start as a rookie if he's up to the task. The Chiefs will be happy if McDuffie matches the last notable cornerback they drafted with a high pick out of Washington: 2015 second-rounder Marcus Peters intercepted eight passes and was named Defensive Rookie of the Year for Kansas City.
Even if McDuffie is a Week 1 starter, the Chiefs have questions. L'Jarius Sneed probably needs to stay in the slot, where his 30 defeats were seven ahead of any other cornerback in the league. A former safety, Sneed's physicality and tackling are a plus in the interior.
The other outside corner spot would come down to a battle between Rashad Fenton, rookie fourth-round pick Joshua Williams and Lonnie Johnson Jr., a 2019 second-round pick who was acquired from the Texans (DeAndre Baker, a first-round pick by the Giants in 2019, was cut Sunday). Johnson's most conspicuous NFL performance was getting walked around the field by Travis Kelce during the 2019 AFC playoffs, so it's probably good they're on the same team now.
It wouldn't be a surprise if the Chiefs, who let Charvarius Ward leave in free agency this offseason, add a veteran cornerback at some point during the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 60.6%Achilles' heel: Linebackers
The Chargers could have half a defense full of new starters after spending heavily to upgrade this offseason. Cornerback J.C. Jackson was the most prominent addition, but they also added legendary edge rusher Khalil Mack and defensive tackles Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson. Their biggest remaining question is at linebacker, where they couldn't find reliable solutions to slow down opposing rushing attacks.
Their most reliable linebacker a year ago was Kyzir White, but it should be telling that Los Angeles let the 2018 fourth-round pick leave in free agency for a modest deal with the Eagles. The organization also traded up in 2020 for linebacker Kenneth Murray, but the No. 23 overall pick simply hasn't been an effective pro. An ankle injury sapped Murray's speed a year ago, and the team hasn't been able to trust him in key moments. He is not guaranteed a starting job and began training camp on the PUP list.
The only guy who might have a clear path to a regular role is Drue Tranquill, who seemed to have the coaching staff's trust before suffering a left ankle injury at the end of the season. He could be joined by free agent addition Troy Reeder, who played for coach Brandon Staley with the Rams and should see snaps on early downs. Kyle Van Noy could also figure in the rotation, but I'm not sure the former Patriots standout has been an effective pro without Bill Belichick involved in the equation. This is a group in which Staley might need to be very thoughtful with spotting snaps in particular situations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 59.4%Achilles' heel: Interior offensive line
The win-now Bucs are starting over at three spots when it comes to protecting Tom Brady. They can count on their two tackles in Tristan Wirfs and Donovan Smith, who return for Brady's third season in Tampa. They won't be joined by future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski, whose elite blocking will be missed as much as his abilities in the red zone. Since Gronk joined the league, Brady's QBR has been nearly 14 points better when Gronkowski has been on the field with him.
Replacing Gronk is one thing, but the Bucs will have three new starters on the interior. Star guard Ali Marpet retired, while fellow guard Alex Cappa left for the Bengals in free agency. The Bucs traded for former Patriots standout Shaq Mason, who suspiciously didn't cost much for a player leaving New England. Super Bowl starter Aaron Stinnie will get the first crack at replacing Marpet at left guard, but rookie second-rounder Luke Goedeke could win the job at some point during the season, especially if new coach Todd Bowles doesn't share Bruce Arians' aversion to rookies.
It seemed center was going to be settled when Ryan Jensen agreed to re-join the team in free agency, but he suffered a serious left knee injury during the first week of camp. It's unclear whether Jensen will be able to return this season, leaving Tampa to rely on Nick Leverett and 2021 third-rounder Robert Hainsey, who have a combined 91 career offensive snaps to their names. (Brady, for what it's worth, is somewhere north of 25,000 snaps when you include his 47 postseason appearances.)
There's a clear replacement available in former Browns center JC Tretter, who was cut by Cleveland earlier this offseason. The Bucs could also shop in the market for veteran replacements at the end of camp. It's difficult to imagine a team with their sort of short-term championship window running an inexperienced center out to protect Brady for an entire season. Even if they do add Tretter and get what they hope from Mason, they will be rebuilding their chemistry up front. It might take a couple of months for everyone to be on the same page, and that is assuming nobody else goes down injured.
Green Bay Packers
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 70.7%Achilles' heel: Wide receiver
You've probably heard about this one before! The Packers have a great one-two punch at running back with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off consecutive MVP seasons, but let's look at their receivers:
Nominal No. 1 receiver Allen Lazard averaged 1.25 yards per route run and commanded targets on only 15.1% of his routes a year ago. Unsurprisingly, he has been more productive without Davante Adams on the field, averaging 2.44 yards per route run without Adams in the lineup over the past three seasons, but that's on a total of just 169 routes, which isn't a particularly large sample. Lazard already has built-in chemistry with Rodgers, but is that enough to make him a true top-tier receiver?
Sammy Watkins averaged a career-low 30.3 receiving yards per game with the Ravens a year ago. The oft-injured wideout sat out four games, bringing the 2014 first-rounder to 30 games missed over the past seven seasons. He also dropped five of his 48 targets, contributing to a subpar catch rate of 55.1%. Watkins already is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Longtime Green Bay standout Randall Cobb returned to the team at Rodgers' behest last offseason. The veteran slot receiver is a reliable pair of hands and turned 21 of his 28 catches into first downs, but the Packers used him for just under 20 routes per contest a year ago. He was targeted a mere four times on passes 20 or more yards downfield, and three of those attempts were by backup Jordan Love. Cobb is mostly going to be an option on screens and slants.
Amari Rodgers, a third-round pick last season, ran 40 routes all season, catching four passes for 45 yards. He primarily served as a kick and punt returner. Reports out of Packers camp suggested he showed up in better shape than he had as a rookie, which could lead him to push Cobb for snaps in the slot.
Rookie second-round pick Christian Watson started camp on the PUP list after undergoing knee surgery this summer. The Packers traded up to grab Watson with the No. 34 pick, suggesting they see the 23-year-old as a first-round talent, but he already was expected to need some time to adjust to stiffer competition after playing at FCS school North Dakota State. Even Jerry Rice needed most of his first season in 1985 to adjust after playing for Mississippi Valley State before breaking out with a 241-yard game in December. Watson might turn out to be the next great Packers receiver, but it would be a surprise if he is an instant star.
The guy getting the most hype at Packers camp right now is fellow rookie Romeo Doubs, who was drafted in the fourth round. Aaron Rodgers hasn't exactly been shy about praising Doubs, comparing his big plays in camp to players who ended up as career receiving leaders for Green Bay.
Doubs might turn out to be a steal, but the odds are against any fourth-rounder making an immediate impact. Ninety wide receivers have been drafted in the fourth round since 2000, and not a single one has managed to top 1,000 yards in their rookie season. Just four drafted in the fourth round over that timeframe have topped 1,000 yards in any of their pro campaigns: Jerricho Cotchery, Brian Hartline, Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Marshall, with the latter pulling off the feat eight times.
The odds are against Doubs, but if there was ever an opportunity for a player to come out of nowhere and do something spectacular, it would be in a situation just like this one. Somebody will break out for the Packers. It could be Doubs or Lazard or maybe tight end Robert Tonyan, who returns after missing most of the 2021 season with a torn left ACL. Maybe they add Odell Beckham Jr. as the season goes along. We know Rodgers will be able to hold up his end of the bargain. Now it's on one or more of the Green Bay receivers to emerge.
Arizona Cardinals
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 53.9%Achilles' heel: Cornerback
After being lit up by the Rams in the wild-card round in January, the Cardinals still have major question marks on their roster. Offensive line is a legitimate concern in both the short- and long-term; four of their five starters will be free agents after the season. The line wasn't able to consistently protect Kyler Murray during that 34-11 defeat.
Cornerback is an even bigger problem. Arizona let veteran starter Robert Alford leave after three injury-hit seasons with the franchise. Byron Murphy Jr. is great out of the slot, but it's a stretch to think of him as a No. 1 corner on the outside. Marco Wilson, who started 13 games as a rookie fourth-round pick, was playing out of sheer necessity; he allowed a 120.8 passer rating during his debut season.
Murphy's and Wilson's jobs are written in ink. The addition the Cardinals made this offseason was 2020 first-rounder Jeff Gladney, but he died in a car crash in March at age 25.
Alford remains a free agent, but he missed all of the 2019 and 2020 seasons via injury; even a return from him would leave Arizona with a thin group at one of the league's most important positions. In a division with playmakers such as Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Allen Robinson, Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett all lining up at wide receiver, I can't understand why the Cardinals have neglected to add more corners. With their pass rush likely to be diminished by the departure of Chandler Jones, it could be an even more obvious problem for Kliff Kingsbury's team.
