A quick look back at the S&F 1st round picks...

[Rams43]

Yeah, I know that we're supposed to give rookies at least 3 years, but let's take a peek, anyway. Just for fun...

Brockers. Very solid, to say the least. Hope we can keep him via new contract.

Austin. Yeah, took until his 3rd year, but look at him now. Maybe Cigs? Maybe QB's? Not quite sure, but I'm certainly enjoying the ride.

Ogletree. Especially after the trade down yielding Bailey. Was playing at a Pro Bowl level before his injury.

Robinson. Okay, jury is still out. But then again, he's barely 22 and would have been a senior at Auburn had he stayed in school. Only started 15 games at LOT so far. I remain very hopeful about GRob. Very hopefu, indeed.

Donald. What can I say? Grand slam HR pick. Perhaps best in that entire loaded draft. Possible future HOF player. Did I miss anything? Lol.

Gurley. Another HR pick. S&F correctly evaluated his injury concerns. Perfect player for a Fisher O. Future Pro Bowler at the very least. Based on his first 3 starts, might even be in conversations as potential future HOF player, himself.

I know that 1st rounders have a higher percentage of hit rate, especially on the earlier picks. And I know it's early in their respective careers.

But c'mon...

Those are looking like some "real fine" choices to me (some old timers might catch that Chuck Knox expression).

 

[DCH]

Compare it to Martz's 1st rounders...

Trung Canidate - bust
Damione Lewis - bust
Adam Archuleta - good player, box safety
Ryan Pickett - shouldn't have let him go
Robert Thomas - bust
Jimmy Kennedy - bust
SJax - borderline HOF (nice job)
Alex Barron - meh, not bust, but not good

Then we have the Linehan 1st rounders...

Tye Hill - WTF
Adam Carriker - meh, not bust, but miscast in our D and not good for us
Chris Long - great pick

And Spags...

Jason Smith - mad bust
Sam Bradford - let's not go there, I still say good pick, but whatevs...
The Mighty Quinn - mighty

 

[LACHAMP46]

I think G-Rob is fine....you guys are too picky...

 

[FRO]

Fisher and Snead are very good drafters. The only problem is it seems there was no plan on how they wanted to build the offense. Had they had a clearer blueprint I believe the offense wouldn't be in such despair it's in now.

 

[Schmitzer]

The way I look at a recent draft pick (or trade) is this - ask you self would you reverse it right now? If the answer is yes, then it was bad, and if the answer is no, it was good.

In other words, ask yourself would you give up...

• Todd Gurley for this year's #10 overall pick?
• Aaron Donald for this year's #13?
• Greg Robinson for this year's #2?
• Alec Ogletree for this year's #30?
• Tavon Austin for this year's #8?
• Michael Brokers for this year's #14?

 

[Rams43]

Well, there's an inherent risk with ANY pick, flv.

That's the very nature of the draft. And kinda my point in the OP.

Austin
Ogletree
GRob
Donald
Gurley

They all had risks of various types attached on their respective draft days. But it now appears that S&F made good to brilliantly correct decisions on each.

And those are just the 1st rounders. Don't get me started on the lower rounds. Lol.

 

[bubbaramfan]

The way colleges are playing offense, with spread formations and QB's never under center, OLinemen come to the NFL with practicly NO NFL type experience. GM's have to gamble. GRob was a physical specimen. Havenstien was close to NFL ready ,. coaching and fundementally. They could wait 3 years for GRob. They needed someone to step in at RT NOW, thus Havenstien.
Look at OL's across the NFL, OL play sucks. They come from college not ready for the NFL. With the way the collective bargaining agreement limits training camp,OTA's and coaches contact during the off season, they have only weeks to learn how to play the OL the NFL way.
This trend has been ongoing for the last five or six years, and will continue until college football starts playing offense like they do in the NFL, and that doesn't look like it will happen any time soon.
Drafting O-linemen out of college is the biggest crap shoot in the NFL draft. No other position comes to the NFL as unready to play and the most to learn in a short time.
Rams should consider themselves very lucky that GRob, Brown and Havenstien have held up as well as they have.

From my point of view, GRob is coming along nicely, plays very well most of the time, has brain fart, then plays good again. Playing time repetition and seeing what NFL caliber DE's have will give him confidence. Brown and Havenstien were great picks. Havenstien will get better when he hits the weights and puts on muscle. These guys are slowly progressing, anyone can see that. You folks that want results right now have to understand that OL takes the longest to develop.

 

[drasconis]

Right now looking at the picks:

Gurley and Donald are huge hits! (note that, with Gurley especially, it is a extremely small sample size...and RB are weird with shelf life- outside even the 30yr old thing)

Ogletree - nice hit, had some ups and downs, but above average solid starter...and seems to still be getting better

Austin - (going to take flack here) - finally coming through, nice weapon...I would trade him for this years 8th pick...he isn't the #1 receiver they had hoped to draft. He is a weapon similar to sproles/bush, nice to have adds some excitement but I really think we need a true #1 receiver. Just to be clear he is far from a bust!

Grob - not a bust yet, but worry he is leaning that way. I worry both about he ability to learn and his drive at this point. At this point I am thinking he may become the next Saffold - which means he would not be a bust - but you do hope for more than "just a guy"/starter from the #2 pick.

Their overall hit rate is awesome, and to so far have no clear "bust" picks is also a great achievement.

 

[Rmfnlt]

I know that 1st rounders have a higher percentage of hit rate, especially on the earlier picks.

A GM should hit on most of his first rounders.

Missing on first rounders on a consistent basis will set a franchise back for years.

While I appreciate all that Martz did on the positive side, I firmly believe he started the downward spiral with those picks he wasted.

So, while I am very happy about the first rounders Snead and Fisher have drafted, the difference between the really good GMs and the rest are the later rounds.

Looking past the 1st round...
2012
Quick - I just dunno anymore
Jenkins - coming on strong
Pead - bust
Johnson - solid and improving
Givens - gone, but never really amount to much
Watkins - bust
Zuerline - solid (even if threads are being created busting him)
Brown - bust
Richardson - gone, but never really amounted to much
So, out of 9 picks, we have 3 solid to very good players in this year (Jenkins, Johnson and Zuerline). I'm not sold on Quick anymore. And 3 busts.

2013
McDonald - solid
Bailey - I dunno anymore
Jones - bust
McGee - bust
Stacy - gone
So, out of 5 picks, we have 1 solid one (McDonald) and Bailey (??). And 2 busts

2014
(hate trying to assess one year players, but what the heck)
Joyner - depth
Mason - depth
Alexander - jury's out
Gaines - depth
Gilbert - bust
Van Dyk - bust
Bryant - bust
Sam - bust
Rhaney - meh
So, out of 9 non-first round pick, we have 3 players who provide good depth. We also have 4 busts... that's a tough one.

Summary (rounds 2 thru 7)
23 picks
4 solid starters (Jenkins, Johnson, Zuerline and McDonald)
3 solid depth players (Joyner, Alexander and Mason)
3 gone
4 works in progress (still deciding)
9 busts

12 players are either busts or gone. That's 52%.

 

[drasconis]

I agree it is too early to say it was a great pick - too much can happen, especially with RB. He could reinjure himself never fully recovering, he could get broken down by workload (look at CJ and how he looked like he was busting out to come back down to earth and become "just a guy"-nice comeback this year though).

That said right now it is looking like a great pick "at this point".

 

[bluecoconuts]

I really like what I see from Gurley, but are we really throwing out HOF after 3 games? Same with Donald, or anyone really, there's still many many many years before we start discussing that.

 

[Noregar]

Wow mfnlt your assessment is harsh. Calling anyone beyond the 3rd or 4th round a bust is a real misnomer. The success rate for even getting "solid" players beyond round 3 drops very significantly. I guess Snead and every GM in the NFL should be fired to making so many "busted" picks in the later rounds.

I guess I am with Rams43 and his more positive assessment of Snead's and Fisher's Drafting. I also think they do an excellent job unearthing gems via undrafted free agency.

McDonald and Johnson are "Solid"....LOL...are we watching the same games? McDonald is a budding Prow Bowl safety and Johnson is a very good starting CB in this league desperate for good starting CB's.

Gaines may be on IR but he much more than just a "depth" player. Most rate him as draft steal from last year and next year. He probably moves into the starting lineup when he returns next year and becomes a very good player replacing JJ and/or the "solid" Johnson because they were in such high demand via free agency.

Bryant who you already listed as a bust is only on the practice squad but he may still make a contribution to the team.

As noted the jury is still out on quite few but already writing them off would be a mistake IMO.

 

[RamFan503]

Being that Marcus Mariota, Donte Fowler, Kevin White, Andrus Peat, Nelson Agholor, Cedric Ogbuehi, Shane Ray, DJ Humphries, Shaq Thompson. Breshad Perriman, and Phillip Dorset are all out with injuries, I'd still say yes.

Add to that how few of the 1st rounders from '15 have really contributed substantially to their teams including Melvin Gordon - who many considered the better back in that draft and I'd say they made a great decision and yes - even brilliantly correct. Over a third of the first round is out to injuries and several are season ending injuries.

Is there a better chance that Gurley re-injures his knee than any other player in the draft injures theirs? Not sure. Looks kind of like a crap shoot to me. For RBs the history has been quite good in returning to full or near full strength when they are young. And recent advances have reportedly strengthened areas of concern after surgery.

If we took Peat, we'd have an injured LT that likely wouldn't beat out GRob anyway. How well would that have sat with the fan base while watching Gurley light up the league like no other skill position out there?

GRob is still early on to tell. Would we flip that pick given hindsight? Maybe. Would other GMs have passed on GRob NOT given hindsight? I'd say most would not have. But I think most people acknowledged that Mathews would be more NFL ready and GRob would take time but have more upside. Taylor Lewan looks to be better at this point but he had 6 starts as a rookie and 6 more this season. Hardly a complete body of work from which to judge.

 

[Rams43]

A GM should hit on most of his first rounders.

Missing on first rounders on a consistent basis will set a franchise back for years.

While I appreciate all that Martz did on the positive side, I firmly believe he started the downward spiral with those picks he wasted.

So, while I am very happy about the first rounders Snead and Fisher have drafted, the difference between the really good GMs and the rest are the later rounds.

Looking past the 1st round...
2012
Quick - I just dunno anymore
Jenkins - coming on strong
Pead - bust
Johnson - solid and improving
Givens - gone, but never really amount to much
Watkins - bust
Zuerline - solid (even if threads are being created busting him)
Brown - bust
Richardson - gone, but never really amounted to much
So, out of 9 picks, we have 3 solid to very good players in this year (Jenkins, Johnson and Zuerline). I'm not sold on Quick anymore. And 3 busts.

2013
McDonald - solid
Bailey - I dunno anymore
Jones - bust
McGee - bust
Stacy - gone
So, out of 5 picks, we have 1 solid one (McDonald) and Bailey (??). And 2 busts

2014
(hate trying to assess one year players, but what the heck)
Joyner - depth
Mason - depth
Alexander - jury's out
Gaines - depth
Gilbert - bust
Van Dyk - bust
Bryant - bust
Sam - bust
Rhaney - meh
So, out of 9 non-first round pick, we have 3 players who provide good depth. We also have 4 busts... that's a tough one.

Summary (rounds 2 thru 7)
23 picks
4 solid starters (Jenkins, Johnson, Zuerline and McDonald)
3 solid depth players (Joyner, Alexander and Mason)
3 gone
4 works in progress (still deciding)
9 busts

12 players are either busts or gone. That's 52%.

Wow, Rmfnit. You are one tough man to please when it comes to the draft. Lol.

With all due respect, you seem to have unrealistic expectations for GM hit rates.

For example, 50% is a darned good hit rate on 1st rounders league wide.

Maybe 25-35% on 2nd rounders.

Approx 15-20% on 3rd rounders.

And after that, fuhgeddaboudit!

Not to mention the UDFA gems S&F have found.

Those percentages are off the top of my head, but I think they're pretty conservative, if anything. To call a player picked in the 4th round, or later, a bust is... Ummmmm... Unrealistic.

These guys are light years ahead of their Rams predecessors going back to Vermeil.

 

[RamzFanz]

Yeah, I know that we're supposed to give rookies at least 3 years, but let's take a peek, anyway. Just for fun...

Brockers. Very solid, to say the least. Hope we can keep him via new contract.

Austin. Yeah, took until his 3rd year, but look at him now. Maybe Cigs? Maybe QB's? Not quite sure, but I'm certainly enjoying the ride.

Ogletree. Especially after the trade down yielding Bailey. Was playing at a Pro Bowl level before his injury.

Robinson. Okay, jury is still out. But then again, he's barely 22 and would have been a senior at Auburn had he stayed in school. Only started 15 games at LOT so far. I remain very hopeful about GRob. Very hopefu, indeed.

Donald. What can I say? Grand slam HR pick. Perhaps best in that entire loaded draft. Possible future HOF player. Did I miss anything? Lol.

Gurley. Another HR pick. S&F correctly evaluated his injury concerns. Perfect player for a Fisher O. Future Pro Bowler at the very least. Based on his first 3 starts, might even be in conversations as potential future HOF player, himself.

I know that 1st rounders have a higher percentage of hit rate, especially on the earlier picks. And I know it's early in their respective careers.

But c'mon...

Those are looking like some "real fine" choices to me (some old timers might catch that Chuck Knox expression).

The sad part is that a lot of the emerging stars are either out or not being used. Fisher is still in TN hoping Britt or Cook is going to do things they have not done without a solid line.

Play TA. Play Bailey. Britt is the only TN player worth a damn and you can't target him because the o line is just not good yet.

 

[SuperMan28]

our three former coach's 1st rounders...

let's not go there

Fixed it

 

[jrry32]

Fisher and Snead are very good drafters. The only problem is it seems there was no plan on how they wanted to build the offense. Had they had a clearer blueprint I believe the offense wouldn't be in such despair it's in now.

They had a blueprint. It didn't work.