- Joined
- Jan 14, 2013
- Messages
- 29,936
For what it's worth, this is my opinion of why the Buccaneers screwed up big time by taking Aguayo as highly as they did:
Not sure you can ever really rationalize this one. Aguayo's "advantage" is that he was perfect for his career inside 40 yards. His averages outside 40 yards are nothing special and his career long at FSU was only 53 yards.
Tampa Bay's Kicker last year, Connor Barth, hit 100% of his kicks inside 40 yards. He only missed 1 PAT. And this is a guy that Tampa Bay cut in 2014 for Patrick Murray. Murray missed 2 kicks inside 40 yards but both were blocked. However, outside 40 yards, he was stellar (11/13).
Frankly, Aguayo is an upgrade over their prior kicking situation but not enough of one to be worth a 2nd round pick. He'll prove me wrong if he proves he has great range and the ability to hit a high percentage of his kicks outside 40 yards. Barring that, you could find a guy in free agency or the late rounds of the draft who can hit 95+% of his kicks within 40 yards and an equal or better amount of his kicks outside 40 yards compared to Aguayo.
IMO, those 1 or 2 kicks inside 40 yards per year that are made don't make Aguayo worth a 2nd round pick. They don't even make him worth a 4th round pick.
If this was a kid who was automatic from long range, it would be a different story. But being automatic from inside 40 doesn't mean much to me. Most NFL Kickers are pretty much automatic inside 40 yards. You're talking about like a 95% average from most solid or better kickers. And the ones who don't average that generally stick around because of their range.
Let's take Dan Carpenter, for example. Carpenter is a solid to good kicker but he's not considered one of the best in the NFL. Here are Carpenter's numbers for his career:
Within 40 yards
122/127 (96.1%)
Outside 40 yards
94/139 (73.4%)
Here are Aguayo's numbers for his career
Within 40 yards
46/46 (100%)
Outside 40 yards
23/32 (71.9%)
Also, keep in mind that Aguayo never made a FG longer than 53 yards so my bet is that he attempted very few FGs over 53 yards. I have a feeling he attempted a lower percentage of long FGs per his outside 40 yards kicks than Carpenter did.
What's striking here is that it's amazing that Aguayo is automatic inside 40 yards but it's also noticeable how average he is outside 40 yards. And if Carpenter's numbers tell you anything, it's that NFL teams don't tend to settle for a lot of chip shots like FSU did. They kick a lot of longer FGs.(trust me, watching Jeff Fisher offenses, I know this) Aguayo doesn't boost your value compared to an average kicker on longer FGs.
There is one last consideration. Carpenter missed 6 PATs this year with the new rule.(that's very odd considering his career average inside 40 yards) But Carpenter was well below average in that respect. The PAT rate in the NFL under the new rule in 2015 was 94.2%. Let's assume that Aguayo hits 100% on 50 kicks (that's a high amount of PATs). That's only 3 points more than the average kicker.
What's my point here? Aguayo doesn't add nearly enough value to be worth a 2nd round pick. The places where he adds value are already high percentage areas and in the low percentage areas, he doesn't add value.
In order to be worth a 2nd round pick, you need to be automatic and have top tier range imo. Basically, you need to have Aguayo's consistency and Zuerlein's leg to be worth it to me. I'm not saying you have to be automatic from 50+ but I am saying you should be automatic from inside 40 and far exceed the average kicker from outside 40 while also giving your team the range to attempt long FGs (like 60+ yard FGs).
How does this apply to the Rams? I know some felt that we should spend a high pick on a kicker. My opinion is that we should bring in competition for Greg but not with a pick. Sign a veteran NFL free agent or bring in a UDFA. It's too easy to find guys who can give you solid play. Greg's saving grace is his leg. Nobody in the NFL has one as strong as his. The Rams keep hoping he'll find consistency. He still might. It took the great Jeff Wilkins a number of years to find consistency. But I do think we need someone to push him if his struggles continue. I like Ross Martin out of Duke. He doesn't have a big leg but he was very consistent over his final two years of college. Brad Craddock out of Maryland is another option.
Not sure you can ever really rationalize this one. Aguayo's "advantage" is that he was perfect for his career inside 40 yards. His averages outside 40 yards are nothing special and his career long at FSU was only 53 yards.
Tampa Bay's Kicker last year, Connor Barth, hit 100% of his kicks inside 40 yards. He only missed 1 PAT. And this is a guy that Tampa Bay cut in 2014 for Patrick Murray. Murray missed 2 kicks inside 40 yards but both were blocked. However, outside 40 yards, he was stellar (11/13).
Frankly, Aguayo is an upgrade over their prior kicking situation but not enough of one to be worth a 2nd round pick. He'll prove me wrong if he proves he has great range and the ability to hit a high percentage of his kicks outside 40 yards. Barring that, you could find a guy in free agency or the late rounds of the draft who can hit 95+% of his kicks within 40 yards and an equal or better amount of his kicks outside 40 yards compared to Aguayo.
IMO, those 1 or 2 kicks inside 40 yards per year that are made don't make Aguayo worth a 2nd round pick. They don't even make him worth a 4th round pick.
If this was a kid who was automatic from long range, it would be a different story. But being automatic from inside 40 doesn't mean much to me. Most NFL Kickers are pretty much automatic inside 40 yards. You're talking about like a 95% average from most solid or better kickers. And the ones who don't average that generally stick around because of their range.
Let's take Dan Carpenter, for example. Carpenter is a solid to good kicker but he's not considered one of the best in the NFL. Here are Carpenter's numbers for his career:
Within 40 yards
122/127 (96.1%)
Outside 40 yards
94/139 (73.4%)
Here are Aguayo's numbers for his career
Within 40 yards
46/46 (100%)
Outside 40 yards
23/32 (71.9%)
Also, keep in mind that Aguayo never made a FG longer than 53 yards so my bet is that he attempted very few FGs over 53 yards. I have a feeling he attempted a lower percentage of long FGs per his outside 40 yards kicks than Carpenter did.
What's striking here is that it's amazing that Aguayo is automatic inside 40 yards but it's also noticeable how average he is outside 40 yards. And if Carpenter's numbers tell you anything, it's that NFL teams don't tend to settle for a lot of chip shots like FSU did. They kick a lot of longer FGs.(trust me, watching Jeff Fisher offenses, I know this) Aguayo doesn't boost your value compared to an average kicker on longer FGs.
There is one last consideration. Carpenter missed 6 PATs this year with the new rule.(that's very odd considering his career average inside 40 yards) But Carpenter was well below average in that respect. The PAT rate in the NFL under the new rule in 2015 was 94.2%. Let's assume that Aguayo hits 100% on 50 kicks (that's a high amount of PATs). That's only 3 points more than the average kicker.
What's my point here? Aguayo doesn't add nearly enough value to be worth a 2nd round pick. The places where he adds value are already high percentage areas and in the low percentage areas, he doesn't add value.
In order to be worth a 2nd round pick, you need to be automatic and have top tier range imo. Basically, you need to have Aguayo's consistency and Zuerlein's leg to be worth it to me. I'm not saying you have to be automatic from 50+ but I am saying you should be automatic from inside 40 and far exceed the average kicker from outside 40 while also giving your team the range to attempt long FGs (like 60+ yard FGs).
How does this apply to the Rams? I know some felt that we should spend a high pick on a kicker. My opinion is that we should bring in competition for Greg but not with a pick. Sign a veteran NFL free agent or bring in a UDFA. It's too easy to find guys who can give you solid play. Greg's saving grace is his leg. Nobody in the NFL has one as strong as his. The Rams keep hoping he'll find consistency. He still might. It took the great Jeff Wilkins a number of years to find consistency. But I do think we need someone to push him if his struggles continue. I like Ross Martin out of Duke. He doesn't have a big leg but he was very consistent over his final two years of college. Brad Craddock out of Maryland is another option.
