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Eight NFL quarterbacks at career crossroads
By Vinnie Iyer @vinnieiyer
1. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
On the surface, Stafford seems to have it all: rocket arm, a pass-heavy offense, Megatron and a megacontract. But after Stafford’s 2011 41-touchdown, 5,038-yard breakthrough that pushed Detroit to the playoffs, the last two years have been rocky. The lousy record as a starter against above .500 teams (2-27) is well documented. The more disturbing development is how his turnovers went up (21, 23) while his TD totals (20, 29) shot down.
Coach Jim Caldwell was hired to help make Stafford, 26, more accurate and efficient. The additions of wide receiver Golden Taint and tight end Eric Ebron are more means toward that goal. The targets are deeper, and the Lions’ line has improved in pass protection. There are no more excuses.
2. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
He has started every game in his three-year career and led Cincinnati to the playoffs in each of those years. So why is a guy who threw 33 TD passes in 2013 — behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees — getting so much heat?
You know why: Three shaky performances in three playoff games, including the abysmal 27-10 home loss to San Diego (29-of-51, 334 yards, TD, 2 INTs) last postseason. Adding to the drama, the Bengals have not yet extended his rookie contract that expires after this year. They also just drafted a similar-styled QB, AJ McCarron, as insurance.
Dalton has A.J. Green, several diverse weapons and a strong offensive line. He also has a new, run-oriented offensive coordinator in Hue Jackson. Relative to most other QBs with his experience, Dalton has a good resume (30-18 records, 85.7 passer rating), but it’s a critical time for him to show the Bengals if he can be great.
3. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
The Rams resisted taking Johnny Manziel in the 2014 Draft, but that doesn’t mean Sammy Football can feel comfortable with his starting position. He won’t get a big push from rookie Garrett Gilbert, but Bradford is down to his last make-or-break chance.
He is owed about $27 million over the next two seasons before he becomes a free agent. He must prove capable of leading them longer-term by staying durable and taking advantage of his ever-improving supporting cast.
Although the receivers still aren’t too exciting beyond Tavon Austin, the Rams have given Bradford a sturdier line (see Jake Long, now Greg Robinson), a power running game (see Zac Stacy, Tre Mason) and a mighty defense to ease his burden. St. Louis can’t afford to be lapped at QB again with the talent it’s building elsewhere.
4. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
RG3 didn’t have close to the worst sophomore slump of all time in 2013, but he faded in Year 2 compared to 2012 draft brethren Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. While Luck and Wilson’s teams upgraded to division champs and Super Bowl champs, respectively, Griffin and Washington freefell to the NFC East basement.
Looking at the film, RG3 missed a lot of throws. There was a tendency for him to force things downfield. As a result, his efficiency and accuracy took big hits in his return from major knee surgery. To get right again in 2014, he has the added challenge of an offense in transition.
Forming schematic and personal bonds with new coach Jay Gruden is vital, as those soured at the end with Mike Shanahan. As Gruden plans to go away from the zone-read wrinkles that helped RG3 early, Griffin will need to do it with his arm and not nearly as much with his feet. The pressure is on to take back control of his campaign as Washington’s QB savior.
5. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
There’s a lot to like about Tannehill, but he’s yet to produce the team and individual success of those in the 2012 class. In a twist, the Dolphins going away from the offensive coordination of his former Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman will benefit Tannehill.
Enter Bill Lazor, fresh off thriving with Nick Foles and Chip Kelly’s staff in Philadelphia. Tannehill comes with some decent polish but can benefit from the Dolphins letting him loose with a more wide-open and creative passing game. There have been signs of Tannehill putting it all together. We’ll soon see if he’s ready to handle every aspect of the game in Year 3. It’s also key for Tannehill to emerge as the leader needed to get Miami into the playoffs.
6. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith did what was expected of him in his first season in Kansas City: cleaned up the passing offense with steady, efficient play so their running game and defensive prowess could carry them into the playoffs.
But even though the Chiefs were an easy wild-card team at 11-5, it still felt they were a distant second to division and AFC champion Denver. Despite Smith playing well overall, they lost six of their final eight games — to three of the four playoff teams they faced all season. To have a shot to stay with Peyton Manning the Broncos and navigate through a tougher schedule, Smith has to be exceptional to stay in KC after 2014.
He earns a bargain $7.5 million this year, but wants a lot more soon. It will be difficult for the Chiefs to invest big in Smith (up to $17 million a season) unless they hit a higher offensive gear. Rookie Aaron Murray is a good fit for Andy Reid’s scheme, giving the team a fallback successor in ’15. Smith just turned 30, and it’s a big year toward his future as a top starter.
7. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
They have given him the perfect offense and a mega contract extension. Now it’s time for him to reward them with more durability and another playoff trip. Let’s remember before he got his $126.7 million deal in January, there was talk of whether he should have regained his job from supersub Josh McCown in December.
The Bears have the right to expect huge things from Cutler, 31. He’s well settled in Chicago with Marc Trestman, and throws to the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. His line improved in 2013, too, with Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long and Jordan Mills.
Just staying healthy would be a good place to start for Cutler after he’s missed a dozen games over the past three seasons. The next is being able to outduel Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers in key division games, critical to the Bears’ playoff chances. This has become an offense-first team, catering to all of the quarterback’s needs. Cutler needs to reach his elite potential, and it’s now or never.
8. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Unlike the other quarterbacks on this list, Manning, 33, doesn’t need to worry much about legacy with his two Super Bowl rings/MVPs. A couple years ago, following his second championship, it seemed Eli and “elite” was a slam-dunk combination.
Look back on the big picture of the past five years, however, and the Giants have made the playoffs in only the championship season of 2011. In 2013, Manning looked more like his pre-ring self as his numbers (57.5 completion percentage, 18 TDs, career-high 27 INTs, 39 sacks taken) contributed to a rookie-like 69.4 passer rating.
To help rejuvenate him for one more run comes new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, a smart hire to replace retired Kevin Gilbride. McAdoo just worked with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game, and the concepts he brings are tailored toward making Manning more efficient.
That means not forcing the ball downfield, throwing more short passes, and getting more targets involved (backs, tight ends). No. 2 wideout Hakeem Nicks is gone, but the Giants didn’t waste any time in using a first-rounder on speedy Odell Beckham Jr. to pair with Victor Cruz. If Manning can’t find close to his best again in 2014, it would mean little chance for ever getting that third ring.
By Vinnie Iyer @vinnieiyer
1. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
On the surface, Stafford seems to have it all: rocket arm, a pass-heavy offense, Megatron and a megacontract. But after Stafford’s 2011 41-touchdown, 5,038-yard breakthrough that pushed Detroit to the playoffs, the last two years have been rocky. The lousy record as a starter against above .500 teams (2-27) is well documented. The more disturbing development is how his turnovers went up (21, 23) while his TD totals (20, 29) shot down.
Coach Jim Caldwell was hired to help make Stafford, 26, more accurate and efficient. The additions of wide receiver Golden Taint and tight end Eric Ebron are more means toward that goal. The targets are deeper, and the Lions’ line has improved in pass protection. There are no more excuses.
2. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
He has started every game in his three-year career and led Cincinnati to the playoffs in each of those years. So why is a guy who threw 33 TD passes in 2013 — behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees — getting so much heat?
You know why: Three shaky performances in three playoff games, including the abysmal 27-10 home loss to San Diego (29-of-51, 334 yards, TD, 2 INTs) last postseason. Adding to the drama, the Bengals have not yet extended his rookie contract that expires after this year. They also just drafted a similar-styled QB, AJ McCarron, as insurance.
Dalton has A.J. Green, several diverse weapons and a strong offensive line. He also has a new, run-oriented offensive coordinator in Hue Jackson. Relative to most other QBs with his experience, Dalton has a good resume (30-18 records, 85.7 passer rating), but it’s a critical time for him to show the Bengals if he can be great.
3. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
The Rams resisted taking Johnny Manziel in the 2014 Draft, but that doesn’t mean Sammy Football can feel comfortable with his starting position. He won’t get a big push from rookie Garrett Gilbert, but Bradford is down to his last make-or-break chance.
He is owed about $27 million over the next two seasons before he becomes a free agent. He must prove capable of leading them longer-term by staying durable and taking advantage of his ever-improving supporting cast.
Although the receivers still aren’t too exciting beyond Tavon Austin, the Rams have given Bradford a sturdier line (see Jake Long, now Greg Robinson), a power running game (see Zac Stacy, Tre Mason) and a mighty defense to ease his burden. St. Louis can’t afford to be lapped at QB again with the talent it’s building elsewhere.
4. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
RG3 didn’t have close to the worst sophomore slump of all time in 2013, but he faded in Year 2 compared to 2012 draft brethren Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. While Luck and Wilson’s teams upgraded to division champs and Super Bowl champs, respectively, Griffin and Washington freefell to the NFC East basement.
Looking at the film, RG3 missed a lot of throws. There was a tendency for him to force things downfield. As a result, his efficiency and accuracy took big hits in his return from major knee surgery. To get right again in 2014, he has the added challenge of an offense in transition.
Forming schematic and personal bonds with new coach Jay Gruden is vital, as those soured at the end with Mike Shanahan. As Gruden plans to go away from the zone-read wrinkles that helped RG3 early, Griffin will need to do it with his arm and not nearly as much with his feet. The pressure is on to take back control of his campaign as Washington’s QB savior.
5. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
There’s a lot to like about Tannehill, but he’s yet to produce the team and individual success of those in the 2012 class. In a twist, the Dolphins going away from the offensive coordination of his former Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman will benefit Tannehill.
Enter Bill Lazor, fresh off thriving with Nick Foles and Chip Kelly’s staff in Philadelphia. Tannehill comes with some decent polish but can benefit from the Dolphins letting him loose with a more wide-open and creative passing game. There have been signs of Tannehill putting it all together. We’ll soon see if he’s ready to handle every aspect of the game in Year 3. It’s also key for Tannehill to emerge as the leader needed to get Miami into the playoffs.
6. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith did what was expected of him in his first season in Kansas City: cleaned up the passing offense with steady, efficient play so their running game and defensive prowess could carry them into the playoffs.
But even though the Chiefs were an easy wild-card team at 11-5, it still felt they were a distant second to division and AFC champion Denver. Despite Smith playing well overall, they lost six of their final eight games — to three of the four playoff teams they faced all season. To have a shot to stay with Peyton Manning the Broncos and navigate through a tougher schedule, Smith has to be exceptional to stay in KC after 2014.
He earns a bargain $7.5 million this year, but wants a lot more soon. It will be difficult for the Chiefs to invest big in Smith (up to $17 million a season) unless they hit a higher offensive gear. Rookie Aaron Murray is a good fit for Andy Reid’s scheme, giving the team a fallback successor in ’15. Smith just turned 30, and it’s a big year toward his future as a top starter.
7. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
They have given him the perfect offense and a mega contract extension. Now it’s time for him to reward them with more durability and another playoff trip. Let’s remember before he got his $126.7 million deal in January, there was talk of whether he should have regained his job from supersub Josh McCown in December.
The Bears have the right to expect huge things from Cutler, 31. He’s well settled in Chicago with Marc Trestman, and throws to the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. His line improved in 2013, too, with Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long and Jordan Mills.
Just staying healthy would be a good place to start for Cutler after he’s missed a dozen games over the past three seasons. The next is being able to outduel Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers in key division games, critical to the Bears’ playoff chances. This has become an offense-first team, catering to all of the quarterback’s needs. Cutler needs to reach his elite potential, and it’s now or never.
8. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Unlike the other quarterbacks on this list, Manning, 33, doesn’t need to worry much about legacy with his two Super Bowl rings/MVPs. A couple years ago, following his second championship, it seemed Eli and “elite” was a slam-dunk combination.
Look back on the big picture of the past five years, however, and the Giants have made the playoffs in only the championship season of 2011. In 2013, Manning looked more like his pre-ring self as his numbers (57.5 completion percentage, 18 TDs, career-high 27 INTs, 39 sacks taken) contributed to a rookie-like 69.4 passer rating.
To help rejuvenate him for one more run comes new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, a smart hire to replace retired Kevin Gilbride. McAdoo just worked with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game, and the concepts he brings are tailored toward making Manning more efficient.
That means not forcing the ball downfield, throwing more short passes, and getting more targets involved (backs, tight ends). No. 2 wideout Hakeem Nicks is gone, but the Giants didn’t waste any time in using a first-rounder on speedy Odell Beckham Jr. to pair with Victor Cruz. If Manning can’t find close to his best again in 2014, it would mean little chance for ever getting that third ring.
