6 Weeks In, Neither Side is Winning Foles for Bradford Trade/Stalter

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RamBill

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Six Weeks In, Neither Side is Winning Foles for Bradford Trade

Posted by: Anthony Stalter

http://www.101sports.com/2015/10/20/six-weeks-in-neither-side-is-winning-foles-for-bradford-trade/

Through six weeks of the 2015 NFL season we’re no closer to finding out if Sam Bradford is on the verge of a career revival in Philadelphia, or figuring out which one of Nick Foles’ last two seasons was the aberration.

Neither the Rams nor Eagles have taken the lead in March’s Bradford-for-Foles swap. Both signal-callers have been erratic, inconsistent and downright careless at times through the first month-and-a-half of the season.

Undoubtedly there will be fans that suggest Philadelphia is winning the trade because they have one more win than St. Louis, but wins are not, and never will be, a measure of individual success. It’s a team statistic.

Take Monday night, for example.

Bradford completed 24-of-38 passes for 280 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in the Eagles’ 27-7 victory over the Giants. His touchdown pass was slightly underthrown, as he dropped a 32-yard pass into the hands of Riley Cooper between multiple defenders.

But the interceptions were a combination of misreads, overthrows and head-scratching decision-making for a quarterback often praised for protecting the football.

If not for the Eagles’ defensive line dominating the Giants in the trenches and making Eli Manning’s life hell for three quarters, Bradford may have willed New York to victory.

Bradford fans will continue to make the same excuses they did for him in St. Louis: He needs more help. He needs more weapons. His offensive line isn’t good enough. It’s the play-calling. The lights are too dim and it’s hard for him to find open receivers. The concession stands are too long and it’s distracting.

It’s true that Bradford hasn’t received a ton of help in Philadelphia. The interior of the Eagles’ offensive line has signal-handedly destroyed DeMarco Murray and the running game. (Although Murray did rush for over 100 yards against the Giants this week.) Without a strong running game, defenses feast on Bradford because he’s constantly in third and long.

It’s also not his fault that Jordan Matthews fumbled the ball in New York territory on Monday night or had a catchable ball go off his fingertips for a game-sealing interception for Atlanta in Week One. But Bradford hasn’t helped the situation with his sporadic play.

Bradford simply doesn’t look comfortable in Chip Kelly’s offense, which is telling considering it’s a quarterback-friendly system. The offense is designed for the quarterback to make simple reads so it can be run at break-neck speed. Based on the defense, Bradford has up to four options on a given play and because Kelly wants to go fast, that means the quarterback doesn’t have to worry about a complex playbook. Think of a point guard in basketball: Read the defense, distribute the ball efficiently and keep moving.
nick foles-2

Foles carries a 57.4% completion rating so far in 2015.

Accuracy was supposed to be one of Bradford’s strong suits and when you look at the stat sheet, you’ll see he’s completing passes at a 63.2% clip – highest of his career. But watch the games and you’ll see a signal-caller that’s constantly overthrowing passes, misreading routes/passing concepts and taking unnecessary risks. Too many times Bradford is confused by a route that one of his receivers just ran and completing the deep ball also remains a problem, as his yards per attempt average is a meager 6.85.

This isn’t to say that Foles is lighting the world on fire.

Foles’ YPA is actually worse at 6.78 and he too has been inconsistent through the Rams’ first five games. One week he’s dropping the ball in the bucket to Stedman Bailey, the next he’s making pre-determined reads in the red zone and firing passes to the other team.

But Foles didn’t cost a second-round pick to acquire. Along with Foles, that was part of the Eagles’ compensation to acquire Bradford, who, as detailed above, hasn’t shown a great return on investment.

Perhaps Bradford is ready to break out in Kelly’s system. After all, more reps means more experience and more experience could translate into production. Given the positives for both teams the last two weeks (strong defensive play, Murray’s 100-yard effort, Todd Gurley’s emergence, etc.), perhaps Bradford and Foles are each ready to catch fire.

But as of now, the Rams might not be winning the Foles/Bradford trade but they’re far from losing it.

There’s no way of knowing how Bradford would be playing right now in St. Louis, but chances are if he can’t find a rhythm in Kelly’s offense, it’s unlikely he’d be succeeding Frank Cignetti’s system.

And given that notion, perhaps the Rams are winning by default.
 

RamBill

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Nick Foles vs. Sam Bradford, Revisited

Posted by: Bernie Miklasz in Bernie Miklasz, National Football League October 20, 2015

http://www.101sports.com/2015/10/20/nick-foles-vs-sam-bradford-revisited/

As for the big, compelling, headline-raising trade through which the Philadelphia Eagles and your St. Louis Rams swapped starting quarterbacks …

Do we have a winner?

Nope. It’s going to be a while to determine that. If, indeed, we can ever make a conclusive judgment.

If you watched the former battered Ram Sam Bradford pitch against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, you will know that he did not remind anyone of, say, Aaron Rodgers. Philadelphia rolled to a 27-7 win over NYG, but mostly because of the play of the Eagles defense. Among other security measures enacted during the game, the Eagles defense intercepted Giants QB Eli Manning twice (including one returned for a pick six) and cleaned up after Bradford’s three messy interceptions. The Philly offense turned the ball over four times in the game, but the Eagles defense wouldn’t allow the Giants to cash in the takeaways for points. That’s why Philadelphia won to even its record at 3-3.

The post-game reviews of Bradford’s play were unkind.

This take from CSNphilly.com pretty much summed up the tone of the Philadelphia-area media’s assessment of Bradford’s play: “As hard as he tried, Sam Bradford couldn’t give this divisional game away.

The Eagles dominated the Giants the lopsided score was not a result of strong quarterback play… really the Eagles won in spite of Bradford… all three of Bradford’s interceptions came on awful throws downfield. His final pick came in the end zone, Bradford’s fourth interception in the end zone already this season. That is a staggering number. No other NFL quarterback has more than one interception in the end zone in 2015.”

The media beatdowns continued for Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft who was sent to Philadelphia for Foles after five hard and at times brutal seasons in St. Louis that included a lot of losing, a carousel of receivers and offensive linemen, multiple coaches, and two season-ending knee surgeries.

A couple of weeks ago, two retired Eagles made some disparaging comments concerning Bradford’s toughness and poise. The former running back Brian Westbrook called Bradford a “shaken” quarterback.

The former fullback Jon Ritchie, speaking on a Comcast SportsNet TV show, observed that Bradford “looks scared at times, which is about the worst thing you can say about an NFL quarterback.” Ritchie added: “Maybe I’m reading into this, but when he was in St. Louis, there was a knock on him that he just didn’t want to get hit. And now that he’s gone through the rehabilitation of two severe knee injuries two years in a row, I feel like that’s cropping up again. He does not want to be hit.”

Foles has had his own issues in St. Louis.

There was the mediocre game in Washington … a late, terrible interception that locked up a win for Pittsburgh … and the harried, four-interception breakdown at Green Bay that included two pickoffs after the Rams had advanced to inside the Packers’ 10-yard line.

Foles also delivered some strong — even sensational -play in a leading role in the wins over Seattle and Arizona.

In the Rams’ two wins, Foles has completed 67 percent of his passes, averaged 9.18 yards per attempt, thrown four TDs without an interception and posted a passer rating of 122.

In the Rams’ three defeats Foles completed only 52 percent with two TDs and five INTs. He averaged 5.42 yards per attempt and had an awful passer rating of 52.5

If you look at each quarterbacks’ season stats there isn’t much difference. The bottom line on the standard QB stats:

Bradford ranks 21st among regular NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage (63.2), yards per passing attempt (6.85), 28th in TD-INT ratio (1.0), and 28th in passer rating (80.0).

Foles ranks 29th in completion percentage (57.4), 27th in yards per attempt (6.78), 23rd in TD-INT ratio (1.20), and 29th in passer rating (77.6.)

Both have been dreadful (for the most part) in their third-down passing. Foles has a third-down passer rating of 60.8, and Bradford is wallowing at 48.5.

If you forced me to select the quarterback that’s played better so far, I’d go with Foles. My reasons are based on coaching and advanced statistics that include pass protection and performance under pressure. Essentially, I believe Foles gets the benefit of the doubt over Bradford because Foles is dealing with a more difficult set of circumstances.

Coaching? Chip Kelly or Jeff Fisher. One is considered an innovative, creative, and highly evolved designer of the passing game. The other prefers tackle football and a brawny rushing attack. (Do you really need me to match the coach with the description? I didn’t think so.)

Playing for Kelly in Philadelphia, Foles had a passer rating of 100.5 over 2013 and 2014. Granted, Foles’ 2013 season was vastly superior to his ’14 campaign — but the ’14 season wasn’t a disaster and Foles displayed a deft touch in running the Kelly offense. Bradford hasn’t. After spending his time in St. Louis playing for two defensive-minded head coaches in Steve Spagnuolo and Fisher you’d think Bradford would be thriving in a quarterback-enhancing offense, but that hasn’t happened. At least not in his first six games as Kelly’s personal-choice quarterback.

Foles also gets my vote because he’s endured substantially more pass-rush harassment than Bradford this season.

According to Pro Football Focus, Foles has faced pass-rush heat on 44.8 percent of his dropbacks — the second-highest rate among NFL starters. Bradord has received more reliable protection, having to deal with QB pressures on only 26.7% of his dropbacks. That’s one the lowest figures in the league. Sam has been kept safe by the Eagles’ body guards, but he continues to be jumpy in the pocket.

Given that Foles frequently has defenders buzzing at him and smacking him, he’s done rather well; his “under pressure” accuracy rating from Pro Football Focus is the fourth best among NFL quarterbacks. Bradford — despite having to cope with considerably fewer pocket invasions than Foles — ranks 16th in accuracy under pressure.

In terms of PFF’s adjusted accuracy (which dismisses dropped passes, intentional throwaways and balls swatted down at the line), Foles gets the edge over Bradford. Foles ranks 12th in adjusted accuracy (89.6) and Bradford is 24th at 81.1.

According to PFF, Foles has been superior to Bradford in deep passing (attempts of 20+ yards in the air) and in play-action passing.

I’m not saying that Foles is Kurt Warner circa 1999, or Marc Bulger circa 2006.

Or even Neil Lomax circa 1984.

But I see more things to like about Foles than Bradford.

At least for now. Because as Peter King of Sports Illustrated and “Monday Morning Quarterback” pointed out on our radio show on Tuesday, rust still could be a factor with Bradford. When Bradford started this season’s opener for the Eagles, it was his first regular-season action in 694 days.

The two knee injuries kept Bradford sidelined for one year, 10 months and 25 days. That’s a long layoff. I think Bradford will settle in and improve. But how long will it take? And how much will Bradford improve? I don’t know. And of course Bradford could stay at this level and be nothing more than an average quarterback.

As for Foles, he had such extreme performances in Philadelphia, it’s still difficult to decipher his true value. Or accurately gauge a reasonable level of expectations — specifically as the Rams’ QB. And playing quarterback for the Rams is radically different than running Kelly’s offense.

The Rams offense has struggled to score points for many seasons. You’d have to go back to 2006 to see the Rams ranked among the top 10 offenses in the NFL for points scored from scrimmage. The 2006 Rams were 10th in points from scrimmage that season. Pardon the brief trip down memory avenue, but looking back on it, that ’06 really had quite the collection of playmakers. Bulger passed for 4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns and had only eight interceptions. Steven Jackson rushed for 1,528 yards and 13 touchdowns and caught 90 passes for 806 yards. Wide receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce were aging but combined for 167 catches, 2,286 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. And remember the WR Kevin Curtis? He caught 40 passes that season, which was no big deal. But four of the 40 went for TDs, and he averaged 16 yards per reception (or more) in five games. Problem is, we were still spoiled by the “Greatest Show” Rams offense, so the ’06 version didn’t seem to be anything special. Yeah, right.

Little did we know. Beginning in 2007, here’s where the Rams have ranked (in sequence) annually among the 32 NFL teams in offensive points from scrimmage: 28th … 29th … 32nd … 23rd … 32nd … 28th … 22nd … 23rd.

So far this season the 2015 Rams are ranked in O-scrimmage points (77) last among the 10 NFL teams that have played five games so far.

Given the head coach’s extensive history of below-average scoring offenses, how many quarterbacks could significantly elevate the performance of the Fisher School of Offense? Foles can make a difference. But I wasn’t counting on miracles here. Perhaps rookie RB Todd Gurley can get this engine zooming and put Foles into position to make plays. Foles ranks fifth among NFL starters this season with a 111.3 passer rating on play-action throws. Gurley obviously has the impact talent that can set up run-obsessed defenses to get burned by Foles passing after he fakes the handoff to Gurley.

Earlier in this piece I noted Foles’ flaws and poor numbers in some categories. But Foles, unlike Bradford, doesn’t play in a quarterback-friendly offense. Foles doesn’t have a passing-game guru for a coach. And Foles has been under fire way more often than Bradford. With so much working against him, Foles is outperforming Bradford. Context is an important consideration here.

I don’t know if Foles can continue to hold up under such extreme duress; the Green Bay pass-rush assault made him antsy and prone to making panicky throws. That was a bad sign. But Bradford has been handed the keys to a luxury car, and he keeps crashing it. Foles has been handed the keys to a car that’s banged up, missing parts, and keeps getting vandalized due to a lack of protection. Bradford is behind the wheel of a Cadillac but is steering rather erratically. Foles isn’t winning any races while driving this hoopty, but he’s more effective at driving a hoopty than Bradford is at driving a Caddy.

Thanks for reading …

—Bernie
 

LACHAMP46

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If Sam starts 2 more games...really 3......we won....But this is like comparing a knee replacement with hip replacement...
 

Akrasian

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Bradford has to significantly outperform Foles for the Eagles to win the trade. The Rams swapped mid-round picks last year as part of the trade, cleared a ton of cap room, and of course will get their second and at worst are sending a fourth back. But at this stage Bradford hasn't outperformed Foles. And in fact, I don't think anybody would be surprised if SB got benched if he doesn't significantly pick it up.
 

Alan

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Akrasian with this shocker:
I don't think anybody would be surprised if SB got benched if he doesn't significantly pick it up.
I would. I'd be totally shocked. The backup is Sanchez and SB would have to play much worse that he has been for the Shegals to bench him for that alternative. I really doubt that happens.
 

dieterbrock

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The Eagles offense this year is the worst it's been under Kelly and the Rams offense has been pretty much the same as its been under Fisher.
Throw in the draft picks to the Rams and it's a definitive win for the Rams
 

CGI_Ram

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Toss out the GB game and this is not a debate.

I get that you can't do that, really... But it's a topic that cannot be decided based on the limited data.

It's fun debate. But, premature.
 

tavian

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"Bradford fans will continue to make the same excuses they did for him in St. Louis: He needs more help. He needs more weapons. His offensive line isn’t good enough. It’s the play-calling. The lights are too dim and it’s hard for him to find open receivers. The concession stands are too long and it’s distracting."

lol.too funny.so true.
 

CGI_Ram

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I'm not drawing any conclusions on 1/3 the data. Give us 16 games and we'll know more.

But; this was the right move for the Rams, regardless which QB has the better stats. It's a decision made on facts prior to these games.
 

HometownBoy

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Wow not even half way into their first seasons on their new teams and you can't declare a winner in such a large sample size?

Groundbreaking.
 

blue4

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We did better regardless. We don't need a high priced QB to run this offense, we need OL. Foles deal is reasonably priced and he's playing, not standing on the sidelines. And I say this as a former Bradford supporter.
 

LesBaker

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Bradford has to significantly outperform Foles for the Eagles to win the trade. The Rams swapped mid-round picks last year as part of the trade, cleared a ton of cap room, and of course will get their second and at worst are sending a fourth back. But at this stage Bradford hasn't outperformed Foles. And in fact, I don't think anybody would be surprised if SB got benched if he doesn't significantly pick it up.

AND they have to resign him. If they don't that is a BIG price to pay for a one year rental.
 

LesBaker

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I would. I'd be totally shocked. The backup is Sanchez and SB would have to play much worse that he has been for the Shegals to bench him for that alternative. I really doubt that happens.

Bradford hasn't pout up the production Sanchez has in that system so if he doesn't start putting up points he could be benched..........and boy howdy will the fans in Philly riot then hahaha.
 

Zaphod

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We won. Why?
1) Because I said so
2) Foles gives us the same performance for less dollars
3) Snead is a G
4) We have Gurley
 

Alan

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CGI_Ram coming from the north:
But it's a topic that cannot be decided based on the limited data.
But there's another way to look at this without having to rely on limited data. If you had your choice between Foles and an extra 2nd rounder or Bradford which would you take right now? If you'd take Foles & the pick then you think the trade was a good thing. We already, for the most part, decided the trade was a good idea. This is just more indication that we were right. For myself, I'm generally happy with the trade in a restrained kind of way.
 

Mikey Ram

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But there's another way to look at this without having to rely on limited data. If you had your choice between Foles and an extra 2nd rounder or Bradford which would you take right now? If you'd take Foles & the pick then you think the trade was a good thing. We already, for the most part, decided the trade was a good idea. This is just more indication that we were right. For myself, I'm generally happy with the trade in a restrained kind of way.


I already know what I think, because Foles is still standing after his beating...Give Sam this line and let's see who is the likely winner of this competition... Of course there is no winner because this isn't a competition...Stats aside, (now or in the future) I like what the Rams did in this deal...Quite frankly I've tired of the back and forth...It means nothing because the deal will not return Bradford and Foles to their original teams if certain criteria are/are not met...I think I'll just root for the Rams this week...Nick Foles will be the QB, ergo he's my guy...GO RAMS !!! They really need this win to get it going and start a run toward the playoffs if they're going to...
 

Merlin

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At this point in time it is a clear win for the Rams.

The draft pick compensation and much smaller salary is the difference.

There will be more separation in performance over the next month I think, and it will be Foles playing better for multiple reasons:

1. Weaker defenses on the schedule.
2. Gurley getting into a groove.
3. The young OL settling in.

By season's end there will be no debate IMO.
 

Oldgeek

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I like the leadership that Foles brings...no eye rolling and command in the huddle.