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<a class="postlink" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8949092/2013-nfl-free-agency-joe-flacco-players-franchised" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... franchised</a>
Have a precarious contract situation with a star player? No problem. Unlike the other major sports, NFL teams have an opportunity to lock a player up for a one-year deal at a very high (and fully guaranteed) salary using the franchise tag. In theory the tag was created to keep teams from losing disgruntled superstars while the team tried to rebuild. In practice, it's mostly been used as a device to force "prove-it" years or allow teams to hang on to risky players without committing long-term to them. Or, for some unknown reason, it's been used to keep kickers. (Here's the list of the tentative salaries for franchise-tagged players.)
Factoring in the salary cap for every individual NFL team, here are five players who should be given the franchise tag.
Joe Flacco, QB
2012 team: Baltimore Ravens
This one is simple as pie. Flacco's agent has said that he wants his client to be the highest-paid quarterback in the league. Flacco's résumé, impressive playoff run notwithstanding, is not exactly up to that pay grade. Flacco finished just 25th last year in Total QBR and was only slightly better than that (17th) in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (explained here).
But he's never finished in the top 10 in either metric since he entered the league in 2008. That's not to say that Flacco isn't talented or worthy of a big deal. His playoff performance is a big feather in his cap and his numbers were hurt by the outdated route philosophies of fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, plus he's got one of the strongest arms in the game. But if you weigh four games against five seasons, it makes a lot more sense for the Ravens to punt the decision to commit until after next season, when they see just how much of Flacco's playoff performance is here to stay in 2013.
Dwayne Bowe, WR
2012 team: Kansas City Chiefs
Let's skip the advanced stats portion for a second here. Bowe, in six NFL seasons, has nearly 6,000 yards receiving and 39 touchdowns. That's very good, but not what you'd think of as elite production. The kicker, though, is that the most talented quarterback he played with in those six years might be Kyle Orton, who started just three games for the Chiefs in 2011. Kansas City's passing offense has ranked no better than 15th by DVOA in those six seasons, and has finished in the bottom 10 in five of those six years. Bowe is drop-prone, and that keeps his catch percentage low enough so that he doesn't have an outstanding DVOA rating, but he's the only building block that Kansas City's passing game has. To let him go would be akin to torching the foundation of a house that's been sitting there uncompleted for six years. It would cost a little extra since Kansas City has already franchised him once, but if Andy Reid has any illusions of fielding a competitive offense in 2013, he's going to need a receiver like Bowe in the fold.
Jairus Byrd, S
2012 team: Buffalo Bills
This is one of those situations where the value of the tag and the value of the open market work out to where it makes more sense to just tag the player. Byrd's ball-hawking skills and range have been on display since his rookie year and are the sort of attributes that would likely find him signing a contract worth north of $15 million guaranteed on the open market. Unfortunately for Byrd, the safety franchise tag will guarantee him just south of $7 million for next season, and the Bills can slap that on him while negotiating an extension with him. Note that multiple other safeties that could find themselves tagged under the same basic idea, like Dashon Goldson, Glover Quin and William Moore.
Dustin Keller, TE
2012 team: New York Jets
Keller was always perceived as a focal point for the Jets offense, yet when he got hurt last season, few noticed his absence. It was hard to notice in a land of butt-fumbles and hysterical quarterback competitions between players who shouldn't be starting, but Keller actually had the best season of his career in 2012 -- when he was healthy enough to stay on the field. He posted a 26.0 percent DVOA on 36 attempts, which was third in the league behind Rob Gronkowski and Anthony McCoy. That's such a small sample size that it's hard to believe that Keller is a genuine threat at tight end, especially when balanced against four years where his highest finish in DVOA was 22nd, but the Jets lose little by bringing him back for another season and seeing if he's made a leap in production. The tight end franchise tag costs just $5.96 million, and much like the Chiefs, the Jets are desperate for some kind of foundation for a passing game. Maybe Keller is a part of it, and maybe he isn't, but there are worse ideas than giving him a "prove-it" year while they focus on their more glaring talent issues on offense.
Michael Johnson, defensive end
2012 team: Cincinnati Bengals
While Geno Atkins deservedly got most of the hype for Cincinnati's massive defensive improvement over the second half of the season, Johnson was also an integral part of the renaissance. He leapt from 6.0 sacks in 2011 to 11.5 in 2012, a number he supplemented with eight quarterback hits and 13 hurries. Johnson's length and leverage was also a factor in the running game, and his lengthy frame makes him a perennial threat to bat down passes at the line at a high rate. The defensive end tag is steep at nearly $11 million, but the Bengals have so much cap space that they could use the tag as leverage to work towards an extension. With Atkins, Johnson and Carlos Dunlap, the Bengals have an impressive front line worth keeping together.
Have a precarious contract situation with a star player? No problem. Unlike the other major sports, NFL teams have an opportunity to lock a player up for a one-year deal at a very high (and fully guaranteed) salary using the franchise tag. In theory the tag was created to keep teams from losing disgruntled superstars while the team tried to rebuild. In practice, it's mostly been used as a device to force "prove-it" years or allow teams to hang on to risky players without committing long-term to them. Or, for some unknown reason, it's been used to keep kickers. (Here's the list of the tentative salaries for franchise-tagged players.)
Factoring in the salary cap for every individual NFL team, here are five players who should be given the franchise tag.
Joe Flacco, QB
2012 team: Baltimore Ravens
This one is simple as pie. Flacco's agent has said that he wants his client to be the highest-paid quarterback in the league. Flacco's résumé, impressive playoff run notwithstanding, is not exactly up to that pay grade. Flacco finished just 25th last year in Total QBR and was only slightly better than that (17th) in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (explained here).
But he's never finished in the top 10 in either metric since he entered the league in 2008. That's not to say that Flacco isn't talented or worthy of a big deal. His playoff performance is a big feather in his cap and his numbers were hurt by the outdated route philosophies of fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, plus he's got one of the strongest arms in the game. But if you weigh four games against five seasons, it makes a lot more sense for the Ravens to punt the decision to commit until after next season, when they see just how much of Flacco's playoff performance is here to stay in 2013.
Dwayne Bowe, WR
2012 team: Kansas City Chiefs
Let's skip the advanced stats portion for a second here. Bowe, in six NFL seasons, has nearly 6,000 yards receiving and 39 touchdowns. That's very good, but not what you'd think of as elite production. The kicker, though, is that the most talented quarterback he played with in those six years might be Kyle Orton, who started just three games for the Chiefs in 2011. Kansas City's passing offense has ranked no better than 15th by DVOA in those six seasons, and has finished in the bottom 10 in five of those six years. Bowe is drop-prone, and that keeps his catch percentage low enough so that he doesn't have an outstanding DVOA rating, but he's the only building block that Kansas City's passing game has. To let him go would be akin to torching the foundation of a house that's been sitting there uncompleted for six years. It would cost a little extra since Kansas City has already franchised him once, but if Andy Reid has any illusions of fielding a competitive offense in 2013, he's going to need a receiver like Bowe in the fold.
Jairus Byrd, S
2012 team: Buffalo Bills
This is one of those situations where the value of the tag and the value of the open market work out to where it makes more sense to just tag the player. Byrd's ball-hawking skills and range have been on display since his rookie year and are the sort of attributes that would likely find him signing a contract worth north of $15 million guaranteed on the open market. Unfortunately for Byrd, the safety franchise tag will guarantee him just south of $7 million for next season, and the Bills can slap that on him while negotiating an extension with him. Note that multiple other safeties that could find themselves tagged under the same basic idea, like Dashon Goldson, Glover Quin and William Moore.
Dustin Keller, TE
2012 team: New York Jets
Keller was always perceived as a focal point for the Jets offense, yet when he got hurt last season, few noticed his absence. It was hard to notice in a land of butt-fumbles and hysterical quarterback competitions between players who shouldn't be starting, but Keller actually had the best season of his career in 2012 -- when he was healthy enough to stay on the field. He posted a 26.0 percent DVOA on 36 attempts, which was third in the league behind Rob Gronkowski and Anthony McCoy. That's such a small sample size that it's hard to believe that Keller is a genuine threat at tight end, especially when balanced against four years where his highest finish in DVOA was 22nd, but the Jets lose little by bringing him back for another season and seeing if he's made a leap in production. The tight end franchise tag costs just $5.96 million, and much like the Chiefs, the Jets are desperate for some kind of foundation for a passing game. Maybe Keller is a part of it, and maybe he isn't, but there are worse ideas than giving him a "prove-it" year while they focus on their more glaring talent issues on offense.
Michael Johnson, defensive end
2012 team: Cincinnati Bengals
While Geno Atkins deservedly got most of the hype for Cincinnati's massive defensive improvement over the second half of the season, Johnson was also an integral part of the renaissance. He leapt from 6.0 sacks in 2011 to 11.5 in 2012, a number he supplemented with eight quarterback hits and 13 hurries. Johnson's length and leverage was also a factor in the running game, and his lengthy frame makes him a perennial threat to bat down passes at the line at a high rate. The defensive end tag is steep at nearly $11 million, but the Bengals have so much cap space that they could use the tag as leverage to work towards an extension. With Atkins, Johnson and Carlos Dunlap, the Bengals have an impressive front line worth keeping together.