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3 reasons why LA Rams Cooper Kupp challenges NFL’s top WR
3 reasons why LA Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp will challenge to become the NFL's top wide receiver in the 2020 NFL season
ramblinfan.com
Bret Stuter
The LA Rams put up big numbers in the passing game in 2019. But if you followed headlines, more than half of casual or even semi-informed NFL fans believe that the Rams offense was bad, and void of true playmakers. It does seem a little odd for an NFL team which finished 9-7, and was the best NFL team to miss the playoffs in 2019, would come up short on perceptions. But then again, it’s all a matter of trending.
The 2018 LA Rams offense dominated practically all of the NFL, coming up short just once in Super Bowl LIII. Since the Rams were so good the previous season, all microscopes were trained upon what went wrong for the team in 2019, at the expense of all else. Wrong was a pretty robust topic for the Rams in 2019. In fact, since so many things went wrong throughout the season, the narrative never got around to what went right for the team. That left casually interested fans with the impression that little did go right.
Optical Illusion
That perception perpetuated this offseason to the point where we’ve taken up the yolk of calling out the bad takes. Still, those pessimistic projections of the LA Rams offense are frequent and widespread. Like ants at a picnic, they just keep coming, popping up here and there. So a change of strategy is in order. Let’s focus upon what the Rams will do well in 2020.
Kupp continues to get noticeably better with each passing season. But it’s a fact that escapes many sports analysts because he is a bit of an optical illusion. After all, when he injured his ACL, the Rams competed in Super Bowl LIII. When he returned to the roster and had what should have been NFL Comeback Player of the Year, the team was less effective overall. So how can he challenge for the best wide receiver in the NFL? Well, we have three reasons:
Reason 3: His 2019 production led the LA Rams
What was, is, and will be. That’s a simplified version of why wide receiver Cooper Kupp will challenge for the top-wide receiver in 2020. A more mathematical and scientific-based approach would engage regression analysis, plot data points, track slope, and extend the graph out into future time periods. But it requires neither physicist nor statistician to read the NFL statistics and see the trend is heading in the right direction.
In just three seasons, he has jumped from rookie phenom to sure-handed veteran. That includes his injury-shortened second season when an ACL injury halted a very promising 2018 at the midpoint. He returned in 2019, not just to where he left off, but to lead the team in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown receptions. He was not the most targetted receiver in 2019, Robert Woods was targetted more. Nor was he the fastest wide receiver, everyone agreed that Brandin Cooks was much faster.
Production then and now
What Cooper Kupp was in 2019 was sure-handed and deceptively quick. Despite the Rams offense filled with dangerous weapons, Kupp found the way to make himself open when the Rams needed to move the chains, score a touchdown, and generate positive yardage on offense. Despite multiple gifted receivers, talented tight ends, and eager running backs, Kupp was the go-to-guy more often than not.
With the Rams parting ways with both Brandin Cooks and RB Todd Gurley, you can bet that the team will be looking Kupp’s way more often than ever. At his current trend, he’s on track to play 900 offensive snaps, be targetted 160 times, catch 115 completions for 1,440 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Even at those lofty numbers, his yards per catch remain a realistic 12.52 yards/catch.
Reason 2: He is playing in just his fourth NFL season
One of the most difficult positions in the NFL to master is that of the wide receiver. The reason? The success of any wide receiver depends heavily upon who is throwing the ball. We’ve witnessed evidence of this whenever an NFL team is forced to make a change at quarterback, and suddenly a new receiver emerges as a favored target. And with that understanding, it’s then a logical leap to assert that the relationship between the quarterback and the receiver can spell or doom the success of that receiver.
Cooper Kupp understands the fragility of success for a wide receiver in the NFL. Even the most talented receivers fall in production without the trust and targets from the hands of the quarterback. A receiver can only catch passes thrown his way. And targets increase over time as trust and dependability are proven by catching the ball.
Year four is the breakout year
Year four is when great receivers distinguish themselves to be great receivers. Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones had a breakout season in his fourth year in the NFL. So too did New Orleans standout wide receiver Michael Thomas have his best season ever in year four. Rookies do not arrive in the NFL as pro-bowl players. It takes time for even the best players to learn the game, the plays, the coaches, and teammates.
Kupp is no better nor worse than any other gifted NFL receiver. As he builds his reputation as a dependable player for his quarterback and coaching staff, they will trust him enough to feature him more and more on the offense. Most often, year four is when that trust reaches its peak, and the resulting production propels the receiver into the top spot in the NFL for that year.
Reason 1: He is playing in his contract year
The NFL is a business. As much as fans would love to have it be about the “love of the game”, it’s also about compensation. “Getting paid” is a huge motivator in the NFL to perform well, and the last year of a player’s contract is often when the player puts up career-high numbers. But what about the team? What is their incentive to feature a player whose production in the final year of their contract will only serve to drive up their asking price when everyone sits down to talk numbers?
Well, NFL teams do have incentives after all. Should Cooper Kupp sign a contract with another team as a free agent, the LA Rams would be positioned for an awarded compensatory pick in the next NFL Draft. The value of that pick would be related to the size of the player’s contract. So a productive final season adds some delayed compensation to the team.
Can Rams afford Kupp’s full potential?
The LA Rams ILB Cory Littleton played himself out of the team’s budget by putting up a monster season in 2019. So too did the one-year production of OLB Dante Fowler Jr. put his asking price out of the Rams’ price range. Wouldn’t a monster season by Kupp have a similar effect? Well, it could. After all, the LA Rams presumed top priority is re-signing cornerback Jalen Ramsey. While Kupp is likely to be the next priority, the Rams have options should they fail to get him re-inked to a new contract. The team has wide receiver Josh Reynolds, whose contract also expires in 2021. If the Rams fail to re-sign Kupp, they will likely push hard to retain Reynolds.
The Rams also drafted a very similar player in rookie Van Jefferson. If Cooper Kupp signs on with another NFL team, the Rams will likely turn to Jefferson to take over for him next year. So while a great season out of Kupp could mean a parting of the ways, the Rams will be fully supportive of Kupp’s efforts to reach his full potential this season. The more yards and TDs Kupp puts up in 2020, the more success the Rams have this year. Will that lead to Cooper Kupp signing with another team in 2021? That bridge will be crossed at another time. For now, the Rams will need everything Cooper Kupp has to win in 2020. From how it looks right now? That’s quite a lot!
