2021 Mock /w Deshaun Watson trade

[Mackeyser]

Gonna be a bit of a cut and paste job here, as I'm trying this with a migraine... can't drive, but I can try to mock? I dunno, we'll see how it goes. I'll just copy @jrry32 's mock and adjust b/c he did a great job on the formatting and I like many of his choices.

Anyway, on with the show. Remember, much of this is Jrry32's mock, so credit to him.

Coaches. Staley leaving and Bonamego getting fired.

I think Aubrey Pleasant should be promoted to DC, Henderson to Asst HC while retaining DL responsibilities and Ejiro promoted to Secondary coach from DB coach.

Departing Free Agents (Agree with all of these)
OLB Leonard Floyd
SS John Johnson III
CB Troy Hill
OL Austin Blythe
HB Malcolm Brown
TE Gerald Everett
WR Josh Reynolds
DL Morgan Fox (Would LOVE to keep him)
OLB Samson Ebukam

Resignings (agree with all of these as well)
LS Jake McQuaide
CB Darious Williams
ILB Travin Howard
OL Coleman Shelton
TE Johnny Mundt

Trades (agree with this)
Rams trade LT Joseph Noteboom
Chargers trade Round 5 Pick #14

We're in a bit of a pickle. Noteboom is a FA after 2021, and Whit is returning. Noteboom has shown he has the pass blocking ability to be a serviceable LT, but it's hard to commit to him without a year of film. Ultimately, the Chargers have a need at LT with Sam Tevi (an underwhelming player) hitting FA. They get a year to evaluate Noteboom to determine whether or not to stick with him.

Rams trade Round 3 Pick #24 and Round 3 Pick #38
Lions trade Round 3 Pick #8 and Round 5 Pick #9

We trade up for a player we're targeting using our third and our comp pick for Fowler.

Rams trade Round 3 Pick #40
Vikings trade Round 4 Pick #14 and Round 4 Pick #38

We trade down from our Holmes comp pick. Vikings have a handful of fourths, so they use two to move up into the third round.

And here's where Jrry and I part ways... plus, this is just some low probability stuff I'm having fun with.

Rams Trade: Jared Goff, Van Jefferson, Michael Brockers, the 2021 2nd round pick and the 2022 1st and 4th round picks to the Houston Texans for Deshaun Watson, JJ Watt.

How? In order to trade Watson, the Texans are going to need cap space. The easiest moves to make are to dump Watt and Brandin Cooks, neither of which have a cap hit and will hit their books for $17.5M and $12M respectively. So that's already $29.5M which if they make it a post June 1st transaction, it'll be about $25M in 2021 and again in 2022. They'd have more cap stuff to do, but that gets them most of the way there, it gets them a legit QB, a starting 3-4 DE and a very good WR on a rookie contract to replace Brandin Cooks who's almost certain to be out in a cap move while they work out the direction of the franchise. The loss of Van Jefferson hurts and Brockers would be terribly missed, especially in the locker room, but it's worth it. What no one talks about in the Watson conversation is that both Watt and Cooks are gone and you can't just start a ton of rookies and expect a new coach to win for you.

The Rams get Watson, a transcendent QB talent and JJ Watt, who's aging, but isn't remotely done to pair with AD. Both Watson and Watt can restructure to make their contracts more cap friendly. This org is almost painfully creative in working the cap. Why take on Watt? Well, a) the Texans have to shed cap to make a Watson trade work and b) Watt has to want to win a Super Bowl and we're gonna be favorites or close to it with this deal done. On the same OL as AD? Yeah, Watt would be a nightmare and with our depth, he wouldn't have to play 80% of the snaps.


Free Agency

Larry Warford OL

After Warford sat out the year, I am hoping we can get him on a reasonable one year deal. I think we all recognized this season that the OL is missing something. Warford went to three straight Pro Bowls before sitting out 2020. Having him step in at RG (kicking Corbett inside to C) should improve the OL as a whole. Plus, he won't cost us in the comp pick formula.

I'm not gonna pick up McKinney or the OLB from Baltimore as with Watt in the mix, I think we're gonna use guys we've developed. There's promise..Hollis has shown up, for example. T. Lewis is still a question mark due to health, not play as when he's played,

NFL Draft
Hurts to miss so many early picks, but Watson is worth it.

Round 3 Pick #8 - Creed Humphrey, C 6'5" 325, Oklahoma.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4Yg5oq4eMM


Analysis: Solid base and former wrestler allows him to take on NTs. This dude just doesn't allow the pocket to be collapsed, not even against BIG NTs. Solid in pass pro and run blocking, although he's tentative getting to the second level and may struggle with slippery, smaller, faster ILBs. He's stout at the point of attack and strong enough to hold up against bull rushes. Biggest issue is that he's left handed, so will need extra time with Watson to ensure no issues with either under center or in shotgun since ball rotates the opposite way.

Round 4 Pick #14 - Warren Jackson, WR 6'6" 215, Colorado State.

Analysis: NFL Draft Diamonds Scouting Notes: Warren Jackson is a beast on the field. He is selfless and I think NFL scouts are going to fall in love with his size and ability to come down with the ball. Colorado State has had some amazing wide receivers, but I cannot think of one as complete as Jackson. Jackson has the size, speed, and catching skills to be a great at the next level. Jackson will also block which is rare for 6060 wide outs. I like this kid and feel he will dominate this year. – Damond Talbot, NFL Draft Diamonds Owner

Not a burner, but he's a high-pointer like few others. His comp is AJ Green. Can run most routes, and is quick while also being a long strider. Produced in college without a great QB. Goes from one Ram team to another. If Jackson had put up his numbers at a power 5 school, he's a first rounder. STEAL at this spot. I also just REALLY like Jackson's hands. It doesn't hurt that his highlight reel is absurd and he made a one handed catch that rivals the OBJ catch. Dude has it all.

Round 4 Pick #38 - Tommy Tremble TE/FB Notre Dame (I'm good with this)
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuc67qgSWyw

Analysis: Anybody else tired of watching Everett get blown off the ball or whiff on blocks on running plays? I know I am. Tommy Tremble has some upside as a receiving TE, but that's not where he's going to make his money. This kid is a punishing blocker. He can lead block as a FB. He can also align on the LOS as a TE and blow defenders off the ball. He's the sort of kid whose value will never be measured by the box score. Cam Akers will love him. He's a freaking dog!

Round 5 Pick #9 - Grant Stuard ILB Houston (We DEF need more ST players who can make an impact)
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJH_5gpjNac

Analysis: First and foremost, Stuard is going to absolutely bring it back on special teams. He's a hard hitting LB who can absolutely fly. I love the idea of him on our coverage unit. But in addition to that, we need some more speed at ILB. I don't know that Stuard will make an impact on defense as a rookie, but he has the speed, quick-twitch athleticism, instincts, nonstop motor, and physicality to be a good weakside LB in the future.

Round 5 Pick #14 - Elerson Smith, OLB 6'7" 245, Northern Iowa.

Analysis: Small school allows Elerson to slip, but his production in 2019 was so good that he's a steal here. 14 sacks including 13 solo sacks in 2019 along with 5 FF shows this kid. He's got room on his frame to gain more weight.

Round 6 Pick #25 - Avery Williams CB/RS Boise State (YES! not having a dynamic returner hurt us more than maybe anything else. Our starting position this year was off and we simply lost the starting field position battle many, many weeks)
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEsagcLrjtc

Analysis: I'm very serious about fixing the special teams. Speaking strictly as a CB prospect, Williams is a kid who has the goods to fight for a roster spot and should provide depth there. He's undersized at 5'9" 195, but he's physical, competes hard, and can be quite sticky in coverage. But his greatest value comes as a special teams terror. He returned 6 punts for TDs and 3 kickoffs for TDs in his career at Boise State. He also blocked multiple punts during his time there. This kid is a dynamic returner.

Round 7 Pick #25 - Brady Breeze S Oregon )I'm good with this
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gddfC18V9m8

Analysis: This is another move that will bolster our special teams. But Breeze also fits the Staley defense well. He's a smart, disciplined player who lacks the athleticism to handle much man to man coverage. He tackles well in space, hits hard, is always where he's supposed to be, and should be quite good in our split safety looks. As a special teamer, he will be another hard hitter who tackles reliably and plays like his hair is on fire whenever he's on the field.

I look at our D and I really like us promoting from within. I don't think we need to go outside as we have some really promising up and coming players who can step in.

Projected Depth Chart
QB: Deshaun Watson (Trade)
HB: Cam Akers
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Cooper Kupp
WR: Warren Jackson (R)
TE: Tyler Higbee
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: David Edwards
C: Creed Humphrey (R)
RG: Larry Warford (FA)
RT: Rob Havenstein

DE: JJ Watt (Trade)
NT: Sebastian Joseph-Day
DE: Aaron Donald
OLB: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
ILB: Travin Howard
ILB: Troy Reeder
OLB: Terrell Lewis vs Elerson Smith (R)
CB: Jalen Ramsey
CB: Darious Williams
CB: David Long Jr. vs. Terrell Burgess
FS: Jordan Fuller
SS: Terrell Burgess vs. Taylor Rapp

K: Matt Gay
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide
KR: Avery Williams (R)
PR: Avery Williams (R)

 

[Memphis Ram]

Interesting draft.

I had Creed Humphrey in mine at first and will have to check out Warren Jackson.

CHILD: "Granddaddy. Where were you when the city of Houston exploded and fell off the map?"

ME: "Well you see there was this game call football and their football team traded their franchise QB and franchise player and heart of the team/city to the Rams for what they deemed to be chicken feed. and................."

 

[Mackeyser]

I REALLY, REALLY like the interior OL if we can arrange that.

Having an interior of Edwards, Humphries and Warford... Those are big, strong bodies who aren't gonna collapse like our current setup.

I'd have Corbett be our swing IOL and Evans be the swing OT, presuming Anchrum doesn't win that position. But damn that's a good OL or at least it looks good, Players still have to play and all that.

As for JJ Watt I threw him in b/c I think he's a gamble and the Texans would be doing better swapping Brockers for 60% of the money than trading Watt for a low round pick as he's 32, been injured and is in the last year of his contract. He's not gonna draw a high pick.

The reality is that the trade would probably be just for Watson and we'd have to throw in more picks. And I'd be okay with that.

 

[dieterbrock]

The cap hit for Watson is approx 23 mill, and the cap hit for Goff in 2021 is about 27 mill. I cant see Houston tying up 50 mill in cap space to have Goff as the starting QB. They can get a top 10 draft pick (at the very least) for Watson, and draft a QB without setting the team back financially.
I think the best chance of getting Watson would have to involve a 3rd team who would be willing to trade for Goff. Maybe our old friend Brad Holmes gets in the mix and thinks a Jared Goff trade makes more sense than drafting a QB and they send the 7th overall pick for Goff and maybe a 4th rounder. Then they can flip that pick along with Darrell Henderson, other draft picks, and you'd be talking

 

[jrry32]

Interesting scenario. I think we'd have to toss at least another first into the deal.

 

[nighttrain]

The cap hit for Watson is approx 23 mill, and the cap hit for Goff in 2021 is about 27 mill. I cant see Houston tying up 50 mill in cap space to have Goff as the starting QB. They can get a top 10 draft pick (at the very least) for Watson, and draft a QB without setting the team back financially.
I think the best chance of getting Watson would have to involve a 3rd team who would be willing to trade for Goff. Maybe our old friend Brad Holmes gets in the mix and thinks a Jared Goff trade makes more sense than drafting a QB and they send the 7th overall pick for Goff and maybe a 4th rounder. Then they can flip that pick along with Darrell Henderson, other draft picks, and you'd be talking

so you're saying there is a chance?
train

 

[iamme33]

man nice draft if it could be worked out. if this was our off season i would be dancing in the street and trust me that is something no one wants to see.

 

[Mackeyser]

The cap hit for Watson is approx 23 mill, and the cap hit for Goff in 2021 is about 27 mill. I cant see Houston tying up 50 mill in cap space to have Goff as the starting QB. They can get a top 10 draft pick (at the very least) for Watson, and draft a QB without setting the team back financially.
I think the best chance of getting Watson would have to involve a 3rd team who would be willing to trade for Goff. Maybe our old friend Brad Holmes gets in the mix and thinks a Jared Goff trade makes more sense than drafting a QB and they send the 7th overall pick for Goff and maybe a 4th rounder. Then they can flip that pick along with Darrell Henderson, other draft picks, and you'd be talking

Normally, I'd agree with you. If Watson didn't have a no trade clause, I'd be doing NONE of this because Houston wouldn't remotely entertain any of our offers that we'd consider.

That being said, he does which allows for other alternatives.

Does he acquiesce and go to Miami where the Texans can extract a mint?

Or does he put a premium on winning championships which puts LA very close to the front?

I dunno, which is why it's kinda fun to talk about and will make for an "interesting" off-season.

 

[PressureD41]

Watson has a no trade clause, here's hoping what he wants is what we want...

 

[Memphis Ram]

That California tax rate isn't a joke. He might even want a raise to play in LA.

 

[Malibu]

Normally, I'd agree with you. If Watson didn't have a no trade clause, I'd be doing NONE of this because Houston wouldn't remotely entertain any of our offers that we'd consider.

That being said, he does which allows for other alternatives.

Does he acquiesce and go to Miami where the Texans can extract a mint?

Or does he put a premium on winning championships which puts LA very close to the front?

I dunno, which is why it's kinda fun to talk about and will make for an "interesting" off-season.

Why is Miami not poised to win they just missed out on the playoffs. They have a ton of picks. Plus picks next year. Watson would be a fool not to go to Miami it is an up and coming team with a really solid HC and Defense.

 

[Dz1]

That California tax rate isn't a joke. He might even want a raise to play in LA.

I think he already posted/tweeted he liked Florida because of no State tax.

 

[Dz1]

Why is Miami not poised to win they just missed out on the playoffs. They have a ton of picks. Plus picks next year. Watson would be a fool not to go to Miami it is an up and coming team with a really solid HC and Defense.

Nice Post and IMHO there it is.

 

[FrantikRam]

Why is Miami not poised to win they just missed out on the playoffs. They have a ton of picks. Plus picks next year. Watson would be a fool not to go to Miami it is an up and coming team with a really solid HC and Defense.

The Texans org has been pretty dumb, but I can't see them trading Watson to Miami for two reasons:

First, they may get into a cycle where they play Miami every year - better to send him to the NFC where it's just once every four years

Second, they traded two first round picks to Miami for Tunsil.

So let's say they get three first round picks and Tua - they have now effectively traded Watson for a LT, an unknown QB, and a first round pick - that is an awful looking hull, even though in reality it may be the best they can get.

Add those two up, and I see them telling Watson, any NFC team who can offer us a comparable package, we'll do it.

 

[Malibu]

The Texans org has been pretty dumb, but I can't see them trading Watson to Miami for two reasons:

First, they may get into a cycle where they play Miami every year - better to send him to the NFC where it's just once every four years

Second, they traded two first round picks to Miami for Tunsil.

So let's say they get three first round picks and Tua - they have now effectively traded Watson for a LT, an unknown QB, and a first round pick - that is an awful looking hull, even though in reality it may be the best they can get.

Add those two up, and I see them telling Watson, any NFC team who can offer us a comparable package, we'll do it.

That's not true they are trading for the 2nd best or 3rd best QB in this draft or they go with That and use the 3rd pick on Sewell considered to be a sure fire success at T or use the 3rd pick to trade down and get more picks. The options are really great for the Texans if Miami makes the trade.

 

[den-the-coach]

That California tax rate isn't a joke. He might even want a raise to play in LA.

Disagree what he makes up in endorsements trumps the tax, many bring it up, but it truly does not factor in from a big picture for a super star. Now an ordinary Joe, maybe, but Watson would be the toast of tinsel town.

 

[den-the-coach]

FWIW I truly believe Watson will stay in Houston I believe they will hire Eric Bieniemy as Head Coach and pair him with Jim Caldwell as the Assistant HC/QB Coach and Watson will stay in Houston.