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https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...smell-like-a-legitimate-super-bowl-contender/
This is not my decrepit house. This is not my ugly wife. The Los Angeles Rams are the opposite of the "Once in a Lifetime" lyrical musing, a team that was grinding through existence under Jeff Fisher before exploding on the scene under Sean McVay in the young coach's first season last year.
The Rams limped through their first season in their new digs, but started to capture the hearts of L.A. denizens everywhere with a breakout offensive season from Jared Goff and Co. last year. Credit Les Snead for refusing to stand pat or get scared: as Gregg Rosenthal of NFL Media noted on the Pick Six Podcast recently, the Rams' trade for Sammy Watkins, which cost them a second-round pick, was ultimately a bust, but they got right back on the trading horse.
"You can't get Marcus Peters in free agency for the price that he is, so he's worth giving up a draft pick. Just the fact that they got out of the gate so fast in February was really smart," Rosenthal said. "The Sammy Watkins trade -- it was a total bust -- it's not going to always work out. But I think you've got to take the swings and I think the players are going to be easier and better to find in a salary cap league than in free agency."
The Rams did that, trading for Peters from the Chiefs and Aqib Talib from the Broncos to give them a picture-perfect cornerback duo for Wade Phillips' defense. They shipped Robert Quinn out to Miami and then promptly signed former Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Suh plus reigning DPOY Aaron Donald plus Michael Brockers on the defensive line is going to cause a lot of people a lot of problems. If they get any pass rush from Samson Ebukam or Matt Longacre, this defense will be downright frightening.
Offensively it would be surprising if they were bad, although taking a step back is totally plausible. Jared Goff shouldn't regress, but he could flatline a bit in his third season (second under McVay). He won't make an exponential step forward based on 2017. Todd Gurley repeating last season -- 279 carries, 1,305 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns not to mention 64 catches and 788 yards in the passing game -- is asking a lot, but it's not inconceivable.
The Rams are the new class of the NFC West, and their 2018 NFL win total of 10 games reflects that.
Desperately wish you had a 30-minutes-or-so, daily NFL podcast in your podcast app every morning by 6 a.m.? Put some Pick Six Podcast in your life and join Will Brinson as he breaks down the latest news and notes from around the league, as well as the win totals on a team-by-team schedule. It's a daily dose of football to get you right for that commute or gym trip. Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play
Early Schedule Analysis
The Rams won the NFC West last year, and their schedule reflects it. They also lose one home game because they're taking a trip to Mexico to play the Chiefs; it's cool to play a high-profile international game, but giving up a home contest is a tough break in the NFL. They open at the Raiders, which should be a win, and a home game in Week 2 against the Cardinals sets L.A. up for a fast start. Then things get tricky: Week 3 is the Chargers (home), Week 4 is the Vikings (home) and the next three weeks are road games against the Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers. They get to come off that stretch with a home game against the Packers and follow that up with a road game against the Saints. Woof. The Seahawks at home and Chiefs in Mexico give way to a Week 12 bye. They close out the season with the Lions (away), Bears (away), Eagles (home), Cardinals (away) and 49ers (home). There's potential to go streaking down the stretch, and if they dominate from Week 4 through Week 11 they just might look like one of the best teams in the NFL.
Why They'll Go Over
Goff taking a step back would be a major disappointment, and a major surprise considering how much better he looked in Year 1 of McVay's system. Just like with Kirk Cousins, Goff was given easily definable reads and executed very well. It's a point-guard style offense, and he can distribute in impressive fashion. If Gurley runs like he did last year, the Rams are just going to be dangerous. And I can't find a reason why the defense would be bad. They don't need Ebukam or Longacre to be superstars, they just need to be average pass rushers and this team will be tough. Suh-Donald-Brockers is just absolutely disgusting and Peters-Talib has flamethrower potential, but they can shut any team down. Honestly the only reason to not take this over is the stretch of games they have in the middle of the season that looks like a murderer's row. But it might look a lot easier midway through and the Rams should be able to handle it.
Why They'll Go Under
Perhaps teams get a long look at Goff this offseason and figure out how to slow down the Rams offense. It's possible! Gurley might not have 2,000 scrimmage yards this year. Don't forget we're just a year removed from him plummeting to the late-second and early-third round of fantasy drafts because he was so bad in 2016. Gurley is an otherworldly talent but the NFL is fickle when it comes to running backs. Sammy Watkins' loss might not move the needle, but if Brandin Cooks doesn't make a major impact, it could be felt. Cooks has been traded by both the Saints and the Patriots, which is the red-flag equivalent of being a highly successful person in your mid 30s unable to hold a serious relationship with anyone. I literally don't have an answer for how the defense will be bad, but I guess people could get injured. The schedule -- which, again, is brutal the way it looks right now -- could cause them to take the division with nine wins.
The Pick
The way that things flipped for Los Angeles will have people clamoring to take the over, so that's a little concerning. Again, I'm worried about the schedule and things not going perfectly. But there is too much talent on both sides of the ball and too much high quality coaching on both sides of the ball not to get on board with the Rams winning double-digit games in 2018.
VERDICT: OVER
This is not my decrepit house. This is not my ugly wife. The Los Angeles Rams are the opposite of the "Once in a Lifetime" lyrical musing, a team that was grinding through existence under Jeff Fisher before exploding on the scene under Sean McVay in the young coach's first season last year.
The Rams limped through their first season in their new digs, but started to capture the hearts of L.A. denizens everywhere with a breakout offensive season from Jared Goff and Co. last year. Credit Les Snead for refusing to stand pat or get scared: as Gregg Rosenthal of NFL Media noted on the Pick Six Podcast recently, the Rams' trade for Sammy Watkins, which cost them a second-round pick, was ultimately a bust, but they got right back on the trading horse.
"You can't get Marcus Peters in free agency for the price that he is, so he's worth giving up a draft pick. Just the fact that they got out of the gate so fast in February was really smart," Rosenthal said. "The Sammy Watkins trade -- it was a total bust -- it's not going to always work out. But I think you've got to take the swings and I think the players are going to be easier and better to find in a salary cap league than in free agency."
The Rams did that, trading for Peters from the Chiefs and Aqib Talib from the Broncos to give them a picture-perfect cornerback duo for Wade Phillips' defense. They shipped Robert Quinn out to Miami and then promptly signed former Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Suh plus reigning DPOY Aaron Donald plus Michael Brockers on the defensive line is going to cause a lot of people a lot of problems. If they get any pass rush from Samson Ebukam or Matt Longacre, this defense will be downright frightening.
Offensively it would be surprising if they were bad, although taking a step back is totally plausible. Jared Goff shouldn't regress, but he could flatline a bit in his third season (second under McVay). He won't make an exponential step forward based on 2017. Todd Gurley repeating last season -- 279 carries, 1,305 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns not to mention 64 catches and 788 yards in the passing game -- is asking a lot, but it's not inconceivable.
The Rams are the new class of the NFC West, and their 2018 NFL win total of 10 games reflects that.
Desperately wish you had a 30-minutes-or-so, daily NFL podcast in your podcast app every morning by 6 a.m.? Put some Pick Six Podcast in your life and join Will Brinson as he breaks down the latest news and notes from around the league, as well as the win totals on a team-by-team schedule. It's a daily dose of football to get you right for that commute or gym trip. Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play
Early Schedule Analysis
The Rams won the NFC West last year, and their schedule reflects it. They also lose one home game because they're taking a trip to Mexico to play the Chiefs; it's cool to play a high-profile international game, but giving up a home contest is a tough break in the NFL. They open at the Raiders, which should be a win, and a home game in Week 2 against the Cardinals sets L.A. up for a fast start. Then things get tricky: Week 3 is the Chargers (home), Week 4 is the Vikings (home) and the next three weeks are road games against the Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers. They get to come off that stretch with a home game against the Packers and follow that up with a road game against the Saints. Woof. The Seahawks at home and Chiefs in Mexico give way to a Week 12 bye. They close out the season with the Lions (away), Bears (away), Eagles (home), Cardinals (away) and 49ers (home). There's potential to go streaking down the stretch, and if they dominate from Week 4 through Week 11 they just might look like one of the best teams in the NFL.
Why They'll Go Over
Goff taking a step back would be a major disappointment, and a major surprise considering how much better he looked in Year 1 of McVay's system. Just like with Kirk Cousins, Goff was given easily definable reads and executed very well. It's a point-guard style offense, and he can distribute in impressive fashion. If Gurley runs like he did last year, the Rams are just going to be dangerous. And I can't find a reason why the defense would be bad. They don't need Ebukam or Longacre to be superstars, they just need to be average pass rushers and this team will be tough. Suh-Donald-Brockers is just absolutely disgusting and Peters-Talib has flamethrower potential, but they can shut any team down. Honestly the only reason to not take this over is the stretch of games they have in the middle of the season that looks like a murderer's row. But it might look a lot easier midway through and the Rams should be able to handle it.
Why They'll Go Under
Perhaps teams get a long look at Goff this offseason and figure out how to slow down the Rams offense. It's possible! Gurley might not have 2,000 scrimmage yards this year. Don't forget we're just a year removed from him plummeting to the late-second and early-third round of fantasy drafts because he was so bad in 2016. Gurley is an otherworldly talent but the NFL is fickle when it comes to running backs. Sammy Watkins' loss might not move the needle, but if Brandin Cooks doesn't make a major impact, it could be felt. Cooks has been traded by both the Saints and the Patriots, which is the red-flag equivalent of being a highly successful person in your mid 30s unable to hold a serious relationship with anyone. I literally don't have an answer for how the defense will be bad, but I guess people could get injured. The schedule -- which, again, is brutal the way it looks right now -- could cause them to take the division with nine wins.
The Pick
The way that things flipped for Los Angeles will have people clamoring to take the over, so that's a little concerning. Again, I'm worried about the schedule and things not going perfectly. But there is too much talent on both sides of the ball and too much high quality coaching on both sides of the ball not to get on board with the Rams winning double-digit games in 2018.
VERDICT: OVER
