2016 Free Agency

[rams24/7]

Sorry to those who are focused on this season, but I'm quite curious with how much talent we can retain with all of the free agents we have, particularly on the defensive side.

According to overthecap.com we have roughly $39M in cap room. To resign our playmakers in 2016 we'll need more than that; and you have to consider the likely 2017 contracts (Tree, Donald). Having said that there are 3 cut candidates with significant cap numbers:

-Chris Long ($11.75M)
-Jared Cook ($7M)
-Rodger Saffold ($5M)

I'm pretty sure Long and Cook have no more guaranteed money left, but I'm not sure about Rodger. If we have paid the guaranteed money in all 3 of these contracts our cap room would be roughly $63M. Here are the guys I'm interested in resigning:

-Janoris Jenkins
-Trumaine Johnson
-Mark Barron
-Rodney McLeod
-William Hayes
-Eugene Sims
-Tim Barnes
-Corey Harkey
-Benny Cunningham (RFA)
-Daren Bates (RFA)

Who do you prioritize? Am I missing someone? How many can we logically afford? How much do you guys think each guy will command?

If Jenks continues the way he is playing the Rams would be hard pressed not to offer him top 5 CB money. If we think his price is too high, go for Tru who's a cheaper, but well-above average alternative. Do we find a way to reisgn both? Does Gaines make resigning one easier?

I'd also be disappointed if we didn't find a way to resign Barron. He's arguably one of the MVPs on D this year playing, and excelling wherever he's asked to play. I'd also like to see McLeod resigned. He won't command anywhere near top dollar, but is a guy like JL who quietly does his job and always seems to be around the football. Underrated imo.

If Long doesn't restructure, I'd like to see Hayes or Sims back. Unlikely we could resign both, but Westbrooks is a solid backup DE. Sign one of them to another 2-year deal.

Barnes would be a cheap resign and is one of our better OL this year. Harkey is an unsung hero that is cheap. Benny provides ST value and decent value as 3rd down back and receiver. Bates is a special teams ace.

What say you?

 

[ItsonTavon]

Now I might sound crazy but, Janoris Jenkins is someone I don't want to resign. Trumain is taller and we need a taller CB just for match up games. Marcus Roberson proved he can play in the Sea game. He did some crazy good tackles. E.j Gains looked great a year ago. Can he stop getting friendly fired at? When Gains come back will he be the same player? Either way as I think JJ is playing lights out. I just don't think he's a top 10 CB.

 

[ramfan46]

I cut Long, Saffold and Cook to resign Jenks, Tru and Barron. I think they can all be kept and also resign Will Hayes. I think Westbrooks can replace Sims in the rotation and you still have Longacre developing. I think Fairley will play his way to starter money somewhere else.

To me this D got really nasty once Donald started and Barron started playing. I think Chris Long is very replaceable with this D Line talent, especially Will Hayes. Long is a good player, just don't like his contract and the Rams have too many good developing young guys to waste money on a bloated contract. Long was the best DE when James Hall was opposite him. Those days are long gone.

 

[SierraRam]

Now I might sound crazy but, Janoris Jenkins is someone I don't want to resign. Trumain is taller and we need a taller CB just for match up games. Marcus Roberson proved he can play in the Sea game. He did some crazy good tackles. E.j Gains looked great a year ago. Can he stop getting friendly fired at? When Gains come back will he be the same player? Either way as I think JJ is playing lights out. I just don't think he's a top 10 CB.

That's not crazy at all. Up until recently, I didn't want JJ back at all. The risk outweighed the reward IMO. EJ outplayed both of them last year. I think he could be the reason they play more disciplined and tackle better. (plus it's a contract year)

EJ forced both of them to step their game up. And to JJ and Tru's credit, they have stepped it up!

What say you?

Good analysis, but I shortened your list by 4. We can upgrade 3 guys in the draft or FA. JJ goes Diva after making a pro bowl.. bye bye

-Trumaine Johnson
-Mark Barron
-William Hayes
-Eugene Sims
-Tim Barnes
-Corey Harkey

 

[Jorgeh0605]

Well our situation is possibly better than what it seems. We currently have 4 mil cap space now, whatever we don't spend will rollover to next year. So barring injuries our cap is no $43 mil. Also, projected cap increase might be close to $10 mil like it has been the last two years. So that may be another $3 mil in cap space. So that is now $46 mil before cutting anyone.

I don't think cutting all three of those guys you listed is necessary and I really don't endorse the practice of cutting contracts. You can cut a player if he isn't helping the team, but judge the player not the contract. We have more than enough cap space to play out some of these contracts. A guy like Chris Long (who I am a huge fan of) contributes tremendously to this team. I would let him play out his contract and offer an extension on our terms for the right price. He can take it and stay with the team or leave to try and find greener pastures.

We have more than enough space to sign our guys. Money isn't the issue, the issue is whether they are worth investing in and betting guarantees on. Most of these are guys coming off rookie contracts wanting to get paid. That means they are looking for a big signing bonus and other guarantees. In my opinion the following guys are almost guaranteed to be brought back:

Janoris Jenkins: He is a top 10 corner in this league. Top 10 corners get paid like Top 5 corners, deal with it and move on. Note: I bet my money that anything holding this deal up is in regards to guarantees and not the total amount the Rams are willing to pay, but just don't want to be tied to all that dead money just in case.

Barron: This guy has been a contributor and clearly loves playing here. If he walks away he is betting his career that his style of play gets utilized well in another system.

Cunningham: He is an RFA that contributes to multiple roles on our team. He won't leave.

Daren Bates: Another RFA that is easy to sign.

Eugene Sims or Will Hayes: I think we definitely keep one of these guys. Both make their presence felt even as backups. I'll jump for joy if we can nab both of them. I think Hayes might fine suitors willing to out pay us though.

Harker: This guy is just the man!


Now those are guys that I see as definite no-brainers to resign. That in no way means that we don't sign the other guys. Trumaine Johnson is a very good CB and I would absolutely love it if we could extend him and keep our DBs. Same goes for Mcleod who has really improved since he started here. Tim Barnes should stay but I don't put it past random teams to fall in love with and over pay for average linemen. Someone could perceivably steal him from us.

 

[rams24/7]

Janoris Jenkins: He is a top 10 corner in this league. Top 10 corners get paid like Top 5 corners, deal with it and move on. Note: I bet my money that anything holding this deal up is in regards to guarantees and not the total amount the Rams are willing to pay, but just don't want to be tied to all that dead money just in case.

Barron: This guy has been a contributor and clearly loves playing here. If he walks away he is betting his career that his style of play gets utilized well in another system.

Some Ram fans may not be happy that JJ seems to be "getting it" in his contract year, but with his rare skill set and game-changing playmaking ability we'd be crazy not to offer him a handsome deal. Teams may try to outbid us for his services, which leads me to plan B: Johnson. Not a bad plan B.

As for Barron, I think he's worth more to us than in any other system. This is evidenced by the player he was in Tampa vs here in STL. He was "disposable" for Tampa. Here he blitzes, plays on the LOS, plays LB, and S. He's an invaluable piece of this D.

Hayes should be back. He's a Fisher guy. When he resigned with us in 2014 he was offered starter money by other teams, but he loves the team and coaches (as many do on this D). I think the defensive coaches (including Fish) and the teammates make it hard for many players to leave our D. How many situations are you gonna find with better talent and a more fun scheme to play in than the GW Rams D?

 

[fearsomefour]

-Chris Long ($11.75M)
-Jared Cook ($7M)
-Rodger Saffold ($5M)

Cutting Cook would save about $4.8 M under the cap, Saffold would save about $3M and cutting Britt would save about $4M....those are the three I am letting go.
I would try to re work Long to save some cap space.
Priorities to me in order,
Jenkins
Johnson
Barron
Barnes
Hayes
Fairley (yeah I said it)
McLeod
Keenum

Going to be a potentially brutal offseason. The Rams should have money to get a lot of these back, especially with some cuts, but, there are other teams with huge money available. A team like the Raiders with $70M under the cap or SF with more than St. Louis. The team has to get either JJ or Johnson done before the end of the season to me to hedge.
Keeping JJ, Johnson and Barron on the backside along with Hayes and (to me) Fairley keeps the high quality depth on both the front and backsides of the D.
Draft a TE, WR, DT, DE, LB to help fill in the gaps.

 

[12intheBox]

I too am cutting Long, Cook, and Saffold. I'm trying to bring back Long and possibly even Cook under much friendlier contracts.

JJ is priority #1. If I can't ink him long term, I'm tagging him. I'm also trying to keep Tru if I can - but I'd let him go before I let JJ go.

Brockers is priority #2. I'd like to see him here for the rest of Aaron Donald's rookie deal.

Barnes, Harkey, and Barron are also going to get decent offers to stick around.

I also want to take another crack at the QB position this offseason. I know its nuts, but I have my eye on RGIII who will - if nothing else - be available. He would need to come at a reasonable price - but this seems like as good a place as any for him to make his comeback if he has one in him.

 

[drasconis]

I'm pretty sure Long and Cook have no more guaranteed money left, but I'm not sure about Rodger. If we have paid the guaranteed money in all 3 of these contracts our cap room would be roughly $63M. Here are the guys I'm interested in resigning:

Fearsome did it indirectly above...but these guys would still have hits toward the cap (though less than their full salary- there is savings to be had, but you have to live with paying guys to NOT play for you): (note I used spotrac site)

Long salary cap hit $14.3mil, if cut dead money is $8 mil = savings $6.3 mil
Saffold salary cap hit $6mil, if cut dead money is $3mil = savings $3 mil
Cook salary cap hit $8.3mil, if cut dead money is $2.6 mil = savings $5.7mil

The only thing to remember though is for everyone you cut you need to replace - either in FA or in the draft...

I think Cook is gone...he has been a let down.
I think Saffold stays, since you only save $3mil by cutting him
Long is a tough one, yeah you can save $6.3 mil, but then you still have $8 mil dead.....he is also generally liked by fans

 

[FRO]

At the beginning of the year I thought the wise thing would be to resign McLeod and Johnson letting Jenkins go. Jenkins is going to cost money and with Gaines coming back you had a cheap replacement. Now with the way Jenkins has played I don't see how you can let him go. Hope we can resign everybody and somehow fix our passing offense through the draft.

 

[HometownBoy]

You have to resign JJ, I don't mean to be rude to anybody, but thinking Gaines and Johnson will replicate JJ is just a fantasy. They looked good covering number twos and threes. There's just no comparison to JJ basically shutting down their number 1s. I don't feel comfortable putting our eggs in a basket that hasn't proven themselves to be anything but a good complement to what we have already.

 

[Noregar]

With his current level of play, JJ is flirting with elite CB status. I use the term flirting because he still has to maintain consistency for the entire season. If he continues along his current trajectory for the entire season he will have earned that status. That will be good and bad for the Rams. The good news is that the Rams will have had a true elite shutdown CB for all of 2015. The bad news is that he will probably leave via free agency. If JJ gets to Free Agency the Rams will likely get outbid plain and simple. Some desperate team will give him a Tampa/Miami-type offer and the Rams will smartly refuse to overpay. Based on his recent comments JJ appears to really want to test the open market and of the all the Rams upcoming 2016 FA's, I think JJ will be the least likely to offer a "hometown discount".

2016 FA List:
Jenkins
Johnson
McLeod
Barron
Kenum
Harkey
Zuerlein
Quick
Hayes
Sims
Barnes
Fairley
Dunbar

The Rams secondary which is finally playing like a top ten unit will have the biggest risk of being negatively affected by FA. With Jenkins, Johnson, McLeod, Barron all becoming FA's and Cody Davis as restricted FA the odds of losing at least one or two is pretty high.

Kenum is worth keeping as long as the price is right but it also depends on how Mannion is progressing.

Harkey is one I definitely want them to keep and I think they will.

With Quick’s injury and limited usage I have to wander if he is being phased out for 2016.

I think the Long can get restructured and extended allowing Hayes can be resigned.

I think Sims takes a big offer to start somewhere else.

I have mostly liked what I have seen from Barnes this year (Better than what we saw from Wells last year) but his future as Ram is a big unknown to me.

I think we will see more of Fairley down the stretch but he is probably just a one year rental.

I like Dunbar for depth but he is aging out and he was only brought back because of Ogletree’s injury so I do not expect him to be resigned.

Zuerlien: IMHO he has not earned a big money contract for a kicker.

The RFA’s : Bates, Cunningham, and Davis are all currently ST / Depth players. Of the three, only Davis has the potential to be full time starter and if McLeod is lost he will most likely be the one to step in.

Also another thing to note is that the Rams have to decide on exercising their fifth year options for Tavon Austin and Alec Ogletree. Being picked near the end of the first round mean’s Ogletree’s fifth year option is a bargain so that is probably a no-brainer to exercise but Tavon will be a much more expensive proposition.