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2015 NFL Season Preview: St. Louis Rams
by Jeff Risdon
Jul 17, 2015 7:59 PM
http://football.realgm.com/analysis/2634/2015-NFL-Season-Preview-St-Louis-Rams
2014 Record: 6-10, last in NFC West
Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8
Overall
Jeff Fisher enters his fourth season at the helm in St. Louis at a crossroads. He’s yet to have a winning season with the Rams, and the time is now. He and general manager Les Snead have reworked the roster in several areas to help try and get over the hump.
Changing quarterbacks from oft-injured Sam Bradford to young Nick Foles is a bold gamble. So is completely overhauling a veteran but underachieving offensive line with as many as five rookies. Taking a gamble on dynamic but injured RB Todd Gurley is a bold move to reinvigorate the offense. These Rams will be different on offense, no question.
Defensively they are loaded up front. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is an aggressive schemer, and he’s got a lot of very talented toys to play with along the line. There is some youthful promise behind them too, though still a lot of gaping holes too. They should be good enough to keep every game close.
One distinct advantage St. Louis carries is the superlative special teams. Punter Johnny Hekker is a gem, while Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein has deep range and routinely booms touchbacks. The coverage and return games are also top notch for coordinator John Fassel, a rising star in the coaching community. That helps win field position battles and hidden yards, and this offense will need every yard it can manage.
The pressure is on Fisher to deliver a winner. He’s overdue for one of his surprising 12-win seasons that periodically bubble up and prop up his otherwise average coaching record. The talent level is sufficient enough to be competitive, even in a tough NFC West. In order for that to happen, some gambles need to pay off quickly.
Five Questions
1. Is Nick Foles the answer at QB?
The Rams finally wised up and realized Sam Bradford was never going to be the franchise savior they anticipated when selecting him No. 1 overall in 2010. In an absolute coup, they dealt him to Philadelphia for Nick Foles, a 4th rounder in 2015 (Andrew Donnal) and a second round pick next draft.
It remains to be seen if Foles is an upgrade over Bradford, who had about five great games in his five injury-ravaged years in St. Louis. Foles made the Pro Bowl in 2013 with a surprising performance. Notably, he threw just two INTs compared to 29 TDs. That success did not carry over to 2014, however, as defenses wised up to his style and took away the middle of the field. In turn, Foles’ completion rate and yards per attempt plummeted; he posted just one game with a QB Rating over 100 after doing so 11 times in 14 starts the prior year.
Now he’s coming off a down season, one ended in Philly’s eighth game with a broken collarbone. The fact Mark Sanchez (yeah, him) outplayed him does not exactly inspire confidence. The biggest issue is his pocket awareness and presence. He’s flappable when pressured, often dropping his eyes and failing to notice coverage switches or open options. For a QB whose selling point is his game management (which is not an inherent negative as often perceived) that’s a real problem. He’s also a limited athlete who often chooses truly ponderous escape routes. That figures to be a much more prominent issue in St. Louis than it was behind a very good OL in Philadelphia. More on that in a bit.
Reports have the Rams trying to lock up Foles to a long-term deal indicative of being an average starter. If you balance his two seasons manning the helm in Philly, that’s exactly what the Rams are getting. I’m not that optimistic on Foles, but then again Bradford was an average QB at most for the bulk of his tenure. They’re not worse at the position, but St. Louis might not be any better either. Wasting a third round pick on Sean Mannion, who simply cannot play, doesn’t help.
2. Will the O-line overhaul pay immediate dividends?
The movie Dodgeball is a classic for many reasons. One of the many quotable lines comes courtesy of Jason Bateman’s spaced-out color commentator:
“It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for ‘em”
He was referring to the Average Joes taking the court without a full roster, but his Pepper Brooks could easily have been talking about the radical overhaul of the St. Louis offensive line. Three starters are out, including former big-ticket free agents Jake Long and Scott Wells. In are not one, not two, not three but five rookies, two of which are likely to play significant reps.
The key to the line is last year’s prized rookie, No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson. He held his own at left guard before kicking out to tackle to replace the (once again) injured Long. It was nothing short of disastrous. Robinson was often unbalanced and overextended. He was flagged 10 times in nine starts at tackle but it could have been 100, he was that overmatched. Robinson consistently missed his marks and he doesn’t have the quickness or experience to recover yet. He should be better with some seasoning and a full offseason working exclusively at tackle, but expect ongoing issues with speed off the edge. His run blocking is strong enough to merit taking the pass protection lumps. Robinson belongs on the right side, but the Rams didn’t invest that much draft stock to have him playing a non-premium position at this juncture.
Rodger Saffold steps back in at left guard, and he’s the bedrock veteran. He’s a functional starter who should help protect Foles from the inside gimmick rushes, which makes sense as he’s a natural right tackle. The Indiana product is coming off shoulder surgery but should be good to go.
At center, Barrett Jones assumes the pivot. You probably know his name from his stellar career at Alabama, where he started all over the line and earned All American honors for his work both on the field and in the classroom. Here’s the problem: center was his worst position in terms of NFL skill set, and he’s struggled with injuries throughout his brief professional career. He’s played just 23 snaps in his two seasons. As with Robinson and Saffold, his most natural position is right tackle. If he can’t answer the bell or handle the power inside which gave him fits for the Crimson Tide, practice squad refugee Tim Barnes gets the nod. That’s not an acceptable solution.
The right side of the line will feature two rookies, most likely Jamon Brown at guard and Rob Havenstein at tackle. Brown is converting from left tackle, where he often demonstrated the athleticism but not the technical prowess. Here’s part of what I wrote about him as a prospect:
The lack of coordinated movement is readily evident on film. The longer a play lasts, the more trouble Brown often finds. He is highly vulnerable to quick pass rushers who can go inside or outside, oversetting and getting crossed handily. He plays too upright and stiff-legged as a run blocker after the initial engagement, often popping straight up at contact instead of sinking his hips and delivering more power. Brown plods as a lead blocker out in space and while he hustles to get in front of screens, it’s clearly not a natural action for him.
Like the rest of the line, his best NFL position is probably right tackle…
…and here’s the best part: the man tabbed to actually play right tackle is a much more natural left tackle. Havenstein isn’t pretty but he consistently gets the job done as a pass protector with all sorts of tricks and veteran savvy which belie his rookie status. The second-rounder from Wisconsin is the ultimate function over form lineman, and he belongs as the left tackle. Yet he’s playing the right side even though every other lineman on the roster is better-suited for that role.
The young depth is also very strong--at right tackle. Both Andrew Donnal and Isaiah Battle are natural right tackles, and they figure to be fighting for the same roster spot as rookies. Battle came in the supplemental draft, after leaving Clemson in the wake of several issues including a June marijuana arrest. He’s an athletically gifted project who could eventually wind up as the left tackle they desperately covet, but it won’t happen this year. Veteran journeyman Garrett Reynolds was signed as insurance. Guess what position he plays…
3. Just how good is the defensive front?
As shaky as the offensive line appears, the defensive line is amazing. How good is it? It’s so deep the second unit features two players, William Hayes and Nick Fairley, who would be above-average starters on most other teams.
Chris Long and Robert Quinn form the most potent pass rushing edge combination in the league. Long only bagged one sack in six games after missing the first part of the season with a nasty ankle injury, but he’s back at full speed for 2015. Recent reports have Long playing in his last season in St. Louis, powerful motivation to post a strong rebound campaign. Even with a deep rotation which will likely limit his snaps to the 800 range, Long should still notch double-digits in sacks and create 30+ QB pressures. Quinn is the speedier complement to Long’s more technical and physical style. He’s also unparalleled at getting his inside shoulder around the left tackle and flattening straight into the QB. 40 sacks in the last three seasons is no fluke. He and Long should threaten the league lead in QB pressures and sacks by a DE duo. Considering backup Hayes topped 30 QB pressures while filling in for Long, the Rams edge rush figures to be relentless and devastatingly effective.
The tackles are just as good, if not better. Aaron Donald was a penetrating nightmare for opposing offenses as a rookie. He uses his lack of height to his advantage, instantly winning the leverage battle and then using his outstanding quickness to follow it up. Pro Football Focus graded him extremely high with his 29 QB pressures and nine sacks, but it was his strong run defense which was a pleasant surprise. He often ran past the play in college at Pittsburgh, but he showed more discipline and better eyes for the ball in earning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Donald plays nicely off Michael Brockers, another former first-round pick. Brockers is not a dynamic rusher but rather an exceptional facilitator for those around and behind him. He swallows blockers and can steer a double team into the intended gap. Though he was the subject of credible trade rumors and is almost certainly in his last year in St. Louis, he provides an invaluable role for the talent around him. How Fairley fits in will be an interesting experiment.
Fairley another former first-rounder who had an enigmatic four years in Detroit. At times he was a dominant interior rusher, light on his feet and too quick for trap or pull blocks. Just as often he was a major liability, freelancing or simply not trying to fight off the block if he didn’t win the battle right away. He’s coming off a knee injury but has remained in great shape, which is a positive sign. How he handles not being The Man is no small issue, as he often chafed at the lack of attention playing next to Ndamukong Suh. Now he’s Donald’s backup and playing on a one-year deal instead of landing a massive contract and being the No. 1 rusher he and his representation anticipated. Expect a few splash plays but a quick hook if he’s not fitting into Gregg Williams’ tightly scripted defense.
Going even deeper, I really like a couple of the bottom-of-the-roster players. Eugene Sims flashed real pass rushing skill last year, while big rookie Martin Ifedi brings muscle, tenacity and attitude as a strongside end who can also kick inside. Speedy young Ethan Westbrooks might not even make the roster, yet he’s a viable third rush end for many other teams.
4. Who will score touchdowns?
One of the reasons I’m not a big believer in Foles is the lack of dynamic weapons for him to work with. Teams that don’t have a great QB generally try to compensate by loading up on stars at running back and receiver. The Rams, alas, don’t have those.
They might have a star in Todd Gurley, whom they took 10th overall in this year’s draft. Gurley is a dynamite prospect, a rare blend of power, vision and acceleration. The Georgia product is handily the best RB prospect in years and could be a real star in the NFL. The problem is he’s coming off a torn ACL which will, at best, keep him quite limited throughout the preseason. Many league execs still expect him to begin 2015 on the PUP list, meaning he’ll be out until Halloween. Even if he’s in the lineup beforehand, it’s quite exceptional for a RB to be close to 100% effective that soon after surgery. His future is very bright, but the long term shines more than the short term. Unfortunately they need him right away and I worry they will rush him back with disastrous consequences.
Tre Mason is a quality change of pace back who showed some spark early on in his rookie year out of Alabama before hitting the proverbial wall. In his final four games he averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt, a full yard decline from his earlier output. The longer runs like his 89-yard blast against the hapless Raiders were conspicuously absent. Mason needs to get back to being the home run hitter with his lightning speed and ability to cut at full gallop. A healthy duo of Mason and Gurley eases a lot of concerns, at least in the ground game.
Then there is the receiving corps. Kenny Britt is the anointed top dog, and he’s coming off his most consistent season in terms of being reliable from week to week. He scored three TDs with a catch rate under 60% and the crapfest of Rams QBs threw five INTs targeting him. He’s never topped 800 yards in a season and his notoriously touchy personality remains a wild card. I do think he’ll break that 800 yard barrier this year, and perhaps a newfound maturity allows him to finally fulfill his considerable physical potential. St. Louis desperately needs this to happen.
The rest of the pass catchers underwhelms. Stedman Bailey is a fourth wideout on a good team, but here he’s the No. 2. Like Britt, he had more drops (3) than TDs (1). He’s a classic tweener as a receiver, built like a sot man but with the skillset of an outside guy. Bailey has been more reliable than his West Virginia teammate Tavon Austin, a major disappointment in his two seasons since being the 8th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Austin is tiny at 5’9” and 175 pounds after two days at an all-you-can-eat buffet. Even though he’s electrifying in open space, getting him the ball and out into that open space has proved problematic. Part of the issue is he’s not a polished route runner despite having nifty footwork and instant acceleration. He also gets lost amongst all the bigger bodies when he does anything other than quick slants or screens, and his diminutive catch radius requires great accuracy from the QB. As noted above, that’s been a problem in St. Louis. Last year Austin was more effective on rushing attempts (which includes several jet sweeps and bubble screens) than as a receiver. The Rams sorely need him to be more than a gimmick-play guy, but at this point Austin has not shown any capacity to fulfill that need. He does offer value in the return game but that’s not the return on investment the team envisioned.
Brian Quick, Chris Givens, Emory Blake, Damian Williams. These are bottom of the roster guys who fill out the receiving options. Quick showed some improvement last year before getting hurt, so there is some hope he can finally prove competent. At tight end there is Jared Cook, who was the most reliable target a year ago. Cook is a former Fisher player in Tennessee who, like Britt, has great physical potential but only occasionally lives up to it. At this point he is what he is, an average NFL tight end. I’m somewhat bullish on his potential to click with Foles, projecting a career-high in catches (currently 52 last year) and yards (759 in 2011). Hopefully that translates into more than his career-best 5 TDs. It needs to. No other TE figures to see more than 20 targets or 1 TD.
5. Can the back seven on defense come close to matching the line?
My wife watches a freakish amount of those house shopping and remodeling shows on TV. One of the more recurring themes on programs like “Flip of Flop” is a house with a beautiful front, one which catches your eye with great curb appeal. The Rams certainly have that with their outstanding defensive front. They’re a million-dollar mansion with the front line.
Then the buyers open the front door and find a kitchen more befitting a third world outpost. The countertops are chartreuse and print wallpaper covers the walls. All that attention to the front, but the rest of the place is barely functional. Ladies and gentlemen, that’s the Rams defense in a nutshell.
As with those houses, there is deep-rooted potential. James Laurinaitis and Akeem Ayers are both solid role players at linebacker who fit nicely next to each other. Laurinaitis has never met the lofty expectations many (myself included) held for him coming out of Ohio State, but he’s a sure tackler with good instincts. Baby Animal just doesn’t instigate enough action or attack downhill well. Ayers is a smart signing, another former Fisher Titan who earned a ring in a brief stint in New England. Like Laurinaitis, he’s more of a clean-up tackler versus the run but he offers blitzing potential and has excellent chase speed and range. They’re limited, but together they are an adequate foundation to build around.
Alas, Alec Ogletree is the other outside linebacker. Ogletree is an outstanding athlete but not a natural football player. To his, and Williams’ credit, the Rams have largely figured out how to minimize his weaknesses and put him in position to be at his best. He can blitz well, notably on delayed secondary attacks. He can play wide in the formation and drop into short-range coverage nicely. He can run blitz and crash the B-gap very adeptly. What he cannot do is handle a block, not even a token effort by a small slot receiver. He cannot quickly diagnose opposing blocking schemes. He cannot stay at home in containment. He cannot cover anyone not immediately in front of him. The third-year pro from Georgia also misses an inordinate amount of tackles. Pro Football Focus had him for 20 missed tackles, but that only counts plays where he is in position to make the play; there are at least that many more where Ogletree is simply not where he is supposed to be to even make an attempt. He’s crown molding and a drop ceiling for a dining room with water damage under the floorboards and pink cherub wallpaper covering termite holes on the walls.
The only LB depth is JoLonn Dunbar, who is sort of like a lesser athletic Ogletree. Yes, it’s as bad as it sounds. Rookie Bryce Hager is a lightweight nibbler who has some promise as a nickel package sub. Beyond that, the Rams ought to be scouring the waiver wire for warm bodies.
As for the secondary, my good friend Ian Wharton succinctly encapsulated the problems with a Vine from the Dallas game:
Woof. Jenkins guessed deep out or comeback and Dez hits the post. Yikes. https://t.co/7N4ZUpDozj
— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) July 17, 2015
Corner Janoris Jenkins makes a lot of plays like that. He’s a gambler and a guesser, albeit a very quick one with excellent ball skills. Defenses can manage, and even thrive, with players like Jenkins, but it requires strong safety play and field awareness by the rest of the back seven.
Look at the safety in that Vine. That’s a terrifying lack of awareness. You see that a lot in watching Rams games, notably with Rodney McLeod. Like Ogletree, he’s a player where his PFF grade is artificially inflated by him being so far out of position it looks as if he’s not responsible for the play, but he is. It’s not to that extreme with corner Trumaine Johnson, but he’s a safety playing CB who really struggles with both long speed and agility.
To be fair there is youthful promise in a pair of 2014 rookies. Corner E.J. Gaines got torched a few times but was generally solid. He’s instinctive and uses his length well. He already usurped Johnson’s starting role and should be even better in his second season. Safety T.J. McDonald blossomed as his rookie campaign progressed, particularly as a run defender. His aggression and nose for the ball really stood out in late games against Arizona and the Giants. If he can break his nasty habit of moving forward at the snap on every play, which often leaves him out of position in coverage situations, McDonald has a chance to be a very good safety. He needs to be, as there is zero depth outside of Johnson moving to safety or mighty mite in the slot Lamarcus Joyner, another 2014 rookie, dropping back.
Forecast
These Rams figure to be a test for just how far a dominant defensive line can carry a team. Jeff Fisher has assembled a fantastic line, but questions abound around it. Nick Foles should bring better stability at quarterback, and the running game could be strong if the offensive line shakes out to be even average. Outstanding special teams provide a boon, and that can be the difference in close games.
In looking at this team, I’m strangely reminded of the 2012 Detroit Lions. Like these Rams, that team featured an oft-dominant defensive line which even featured current Ram Nick Fairley. Like these Rams, the secondary and linebackers behind it were scattershot and inconsistent. When they produced turnovers and controlled third downs, they won.
Of course that Lions team had Matthew Stafford, coming off a 5000-yard, 41 TD campaign, throwing to Calvin Johnson. These Rams? Nick Foles to Kenny Britt doesn’t even come close, though the running game will help to some extent. I worry the offense will not be able to outscore the meager total the strong defense should allow most weeks. Pencil in a win or two thanks to the special teams, and I can see why the win total is set at eight. I’m not that optimistic, however.
I watched those 2012 Lions plummet from a playoff team the year prior to a 4-12 disaster. A great defensive line can only do so much, and mobile quarterbacks who can create and escape are a real problem. Look at the QBs on the schedule: Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick twice each, Aaron Rodgers, Teddy Bridgewater, Ben Roethlisberger, Robert Griffin, Jameis Winston and even the aforementioned Stafford can all create and escape with their legs. It’s a bad schedule for a team so heavily reliant on getting sacks to get the defense off the field. They’ll get their share, and on weeks where the offense clicks they’ll be a very tough foe. I see that happening no more than 6 times. If I were a betting man I would hammer the under on the eight win total. These Rams once again finish at 6-10.
by Jeff Risdon
Jul 17, 2015 7:59 PM
http://football.realgm.com/analysis/2634/2015-NFL-Season-Preview-St-Louis-Rams
2014 Record: 6-10, last in NFC West
Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8
Overall
Jeff Fisher enters his fourth season at the helm in St. Louis at a crossroads. He’s yet to have a winning season with the Rams, and the time is now. He and general manager Les Snead have reworked the roster in several areas to help try and get over the hump.
Changing quarterbacks from oft-injured Sam Bradford to young Nick Foles is a bold gamble. So is completely overhauling a veteran but underachieving offensive line with as many as five rookies. Taking a gamble on dynamic but injured RB Todd Gurley is a bold move to reinvigorate the offense. These Rams will be different on offense, no question.
Defensively they are loaded up front. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is an aggressive schemer, and he’s got a lot of very talented toys to play with along the line. There is some youthful promise behind them too, though still a lot of gaping holes too. They should be good enough to keep every game close.
One distinct advantage St. Louis carries is the superlative special teams. Punter Johnny Hekker is a gem, while Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein has deep range and routinely booms touchbacks. The coverage and return games are also top notch for coordinator John Fassel, a rising star in the coaching community. That helps win field position battles and hidden yards, and this offense will need every yard it can manage.
The pressure is on Fisher to deliver a winner. He’s overdue for one of his surprising 12-win seasons that periodically bubble up and prop up his otherwise average coaching record. The talent level is sufficient enough to be competitive, even in a tough NFC West. In order for that to happen, some gambles need to pay off quickly.
Five Questions
1. Is Nick Foles the answer at QB?
The Rams finally wised up and realized Sam Bradford was never going to be the franchise savior they anticipated when selecting him No. 1 overall in 2010. In an absolute coup, they dealt him to Philadelphia for Nick Foles, a 4th rounder in 2015 (Andrew Donnal) and a second round pick next draft.
It remains to be seen if Foles is an upgrade over Bradford, who had about five great games in his five injury-ravaged years in St. Louis. Foles made the Pro Bowl in 2013 with a surprising performance. Notably, he threw just two INTs compared to 29 TDs. That success did not carry over to 2014, however, as defenses wised up to his style and took away the middle of the field. In turn, Foles’ completion rate and yards per attempt plummeted; he posted just one game with a QB Rating over 100 after doing so 11 times in 14 starts the prior year.
Now he’s coming off a down season, one ended in Philly’s eighth game with a broken collarbone. The fact Mark Sanchez (yeah, him) outplayed him does not exactly inspire confidence. The biggest issue is his pocket awareness and presence. He’s flappable when pressured, often dropping his eyes and failing to notice coverage switches or open options. For a QB whose selling point is his game management (which is not an inherent negative as often perceived) that’s a real problem. He’s also a limited athlete who often chooses truly ponderous escape routes. That figures to be a much more prominent issue in St. Louis than it was behind a very good OL in Philadelphia. More on that in a bit.
Reports have the Rams trying to lock up Foles to a long-term deal indicative of being an average starter. If you balance his two seasons manning the helm in Philly, that’s exactly what the Rams are getting. I’m not that optimistic on Foles, but then again Bradford was an average QB at most for the bulk of his tenure. They’re not worse at the position, but St. Louis might not be any better either. Wasting a third round pick on Sean Mannion, who simply cannot play, doesn’t help.
2. Will the O-line overhaul pay immediate dividends?
The movie Dodgeball is a classic for many reasons. One of the many quotable lines comes courtesy of Jason Bateman’s spaced-out color commentator:
“It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for ‘em”
He was referring to the Average Joes taking the court without a full roster, but his Pepper Brooks could easily have been talking about the radical overhaul of the St. Louis offensive line. Three starters are out, including former big-ticket free agents Jake Long and Scott Wells. In are not one, not two, not three but five rookies, two of which are likely to play significant reps.
The key to the line is last year’s prized rookie, No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson. He held his own at left guard before kicking out to tackle to replace the (once again) injured Long. It was nothing short of disastrous. Robinson was often unbalanced and overextended. He was flagged 10 times in nine starts at tackle but it could have been 100, he was that overmatched. Robinson consistently missed his marks and he doesn’t have the quickness or experience to recover yet. He should be better with some seasoning and a full offseason working exclusively at tackle, but expect ongoing issues with speed off the edge. His run blocking is strong enough to merit taking the pass protection lumps. Robinson belongs on the right side, but the Rams didn’t invest that much draft stock to have him playing a non-premium position at this juncture.
Rodger Saffold steps back in at left guard, and he’s the bedrock veteran. He’s a functional starter who should help protect Foles from the inside gimmick rushes, which makes sense as he’s a natural right tackle. The Indiana product is coming off shoulder surgery but should be good to go.
At center, Barrett Jones assumes the pivot. You probably know his name from his stellar career at Alabama, where he started all over the line and earned All American honors for his work both on the field and in the classroom. Here’s the problem: center was his worst position in terms of NFL skill set, and he’s struggled with injuries throughout his brief professional career. He’s played just 23 snaps in his two seasons. As with Robinson and Saffold, his most natural position is right tackle. If he can’t answer the bell or handle the power inside which gave him fits for the Crimson Tide, practice squad refugee Tim Barnes gets the nod. That’s not an acceptable solution.
The right side of the line will feature two rookies, most likely Jamon Brown at guard and Rob Havenstein at tackle. Brown is converting from left tackle, where he often demonstrated the athleticism but not the technical prowess. Here’s part of what I wrote about him as a prospect:
The lack of coordinated movement is readily evident on film. The longer a play lasts, the more trouble Brown often finds. He is highly vulnerable to quick pass rushers who can go inside or outside, oversetting and getting crossed handily. He plays too upright and stiff-legged as a run blocker after the initial engagement, often popping straight up at contact instead of sinking his hips and delivering more power. Brown plods as a lead blocker out in space and while he hustles to get in front of screens, it’s clearly not a natural action for him.
Like the rest of the line, his best NFL position is probably right tackle…
…and here’s the best part: the man tabbed to actually play right tackle is a much more natural left tackle. Havenstein isn’t pretty but he consistently gets the job done as a pass protector with all sorts of tricks and veteran savvy which belie his rookie status. The second-rounder from Wisconsin is the ultimate function over form lineman, and he belongs as the left tackle. Yet he’s playing the right side even though every other lineman on the roster is better-suited for that role.
The young depth is also very strong--at right tackle. Both Andrew Donnal and Isaiah Battle are natural right tackles, and they figure to be fighting for the same roster spot as rookies. Battle came in the supplemental draft, after leaving Clemson in the wake of several issues including a June marijuana arrest. He’s an athletically gifted project who could eventually wind up as the left tackle they desperately covet, but it won’t happen this year. Veteran journeyman Garrett Reynolds was signed as insurance. Guess what position he plays…
3. Just how good is the defensive front?
As shaky as the offensive line appears, the defensive line is amazing. How good is it? It’s so deep the second unit features two players, William Hayes and Nick Fairley, who would be above-average starters on most other teams.
Chris Long and Robert Quinn form the most potent pass rushing edge combination in the league. Long only bagged one sack in six games after missing the first part of the season with a nasty ankle injury, but he’s back at full speed for 2015. Recent reports have Long playing in his last season in St. Louis, powerful motivation to post a strong rebound campaign. Even with a deep rotation which will likely limit his snaps to the 800 range, Long should still notch double-digits in sacks and create 30+ QB pressures. Quinn is the speedier complement to Long’s more technical and physical style. He’s also unparalleled at getting his inside shoulder around the left tackle and flattening straight into the QB. 40 sacks in the last three seasons is no fluke. He and Long should threaten the league lead in QB pressures and sacks by a DE duo. Considering backup Hayes topped 30 QB pressures while filling in for Long, the Rams edge rush figures to be relentless and devastatingly effective.
The tackles are just as good, if not better. Aaron Donald was a penetrating nightmare for opposing offenses as a rookie. He uses his lack of height to his advantage, instantly winning the leverage battle and then using his outstanding quickness to follow it up. Pro Football Focus graded him extremely high with his 29 QB pressures and nine sacks, but it was his strong run defense which was a pleasant surprise. He often ran past the play in college at Pittsburgh, but he showed more discipline and better eyes for the ball in earning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Donald plays nicely off Michael Brockers, another former first-round pick. Brockers is not a dynamic rusher but rather an exceptional facilitator for those around and behind him. He swallows blockers and can steer a double team into the intended gap. Though he was the subject of credible trade rumors and is almost certainly in his last year in St. Louis, he provides an invaluable role for the talent around him. How Fairley fits in will be an interesting experiment.
Fairley another former first-rounder who had an enigmatic four years in Detroit. At times he was a dominant interior rusher, light on his feet and too quick for trap or pull blocks. Just as often he was a major liability, freelancing or simply not trying to fight off the block if he didn’t win the battle right away. He’s coming off a knee injury but has remained in great shape, which is a positive sign. How he handles not being The Man is no small issue, as he often chafed at the lack of attention playing next to Ndamukong Suh. Now he’s Donald’s backup and playing on a one-year deal instead of landing a massive contract and being the No. 1 rusher he and his representation anticipated. Expect a few splash plays but a quick hook if he’s not fitting into Gregg Williams’ tightly scripted defense.
Going even deeper, I really like a couple of the bottom-of-the-roster players. Eugene Sims flashed real pass rushing skill last year, while big rookie Martin Ifedi brings muscle, tenacity and attitude as a strongside end who can also kick inside. Speedy young Ethan Westbrooks might not even make the roster, yet he’s a viable third rush end for many other teams.
4. Who will score touchdowns?
One of the reasons I’m not a big believer in Foles is the lack of dynamic weapons for him to work with. Teams that don’t have a great QB generally try to compensate by loading up on stars at running back and receiver. The Rams, alas, don’t have those.
They might have a star in Todd Gurley, whom they took 10th overall in this year’s draft. Gurley is a dynamite prospect, a rare blend of power, vision and acceleration. The Georgia product is handily the best RB prospect in years and could be a real star in the NFL. The problem is he’s coming off a torn ACL which will, at best, keep him quite limited throughout the preseason. Many league execs still expect him to begin 2015 on the PUP list, meaning he’ll be out until Halloween. Even if he’s in the lineup beforehand, it’s quite exceptional for a RB to be close to 100% effective that soon after surgery. His future is very bright, but the long term shines more than the short term. Unfortunately they need him right away and I worry they will rush him back with disastrous consequences.
Tre Mason is a quality change of pace back who showed some spark early on in his rookie year out of Alabama before hitting the proverbial wall. In his final four games he averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt, a full yard decline from his earlier output. The longer runs like his 89-yard blast against the hapless Raiders were conspicuously absent. Mason needs to get back to being the home run hitter with his lightning speed and ability to cut at full gallop. A healthy duo of Mason and Gurley eases a lot of concerns, at least in the ground game.
Then there is the receiving corps. Kenny Britt is the anointed top dog, and he’s coming off his most consistent season in terms of being reliable from week to week. He scored three TDs with a catch rate under 60% and the crapfest of Rams QBs threw five INTs targeting him. He’s never topped 800 yards in a season and his notoriously touchy personality remains a wild card. I do think he’ll break that 800 yard barrier this year, and perhaps a newfound maturity allows him to finally fulfill his considerable physical potential. St. Louis desperately needs this to happen.
The rest of the pass catchers underwhelms. Stedman Bailey is a fourth wideout on a good team, but here he’s the No. 2. Like Britt, he had more drops (3) than TDs (1). He’s a classic tweener as a receiver, built like a sot man but with the skillset of an outside guy. Bailey has been more reliable than his West Virginia teammate Tavon Austin, a major disappointment in his two seasons since being the 8th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Austin is tiny at 5’9” and 175 pounds after two days at an all-you-can-eat buffet. Even though he’s electrifying in open space, getting him the ball and out into that open space has proved problematic. Part of the issue is he’s not a polished route runner despite having nifty footwork and instant acceleration. He also gets lost amongst all the bigger bodies when he does anything other than quick slants or screens, and his diminutive catch radius requires great accuracy from the QB. As noted above, that’s been a problem in St. Louis. Last year Austin was more effective on rushing attempts (which includes several jet sweeps and bubble screens) than as a receiver. The Rams sorely need him to be more than a gimmick-play guy, but at this point Austin has not shown any capacity to fulfill that need. He does offer value in the return game but that’s not the return on investment the team envisioned.
Brian Quick, Chris Givens, Emory Blake, Damian Williams. These are bottom of the roster guys who fill out the receiving options. Quick showed some improvement last year before getting hurt, so there is some hope he can finally prove competent. At tight end there is Jared Cook, who was the most reliable target a year ago. Cook is a former Fisher player in Tennessee who, like Britt, has great physical potential but only occasionally lives up to it. At this point he is what he is, an average NFL tight end. I’m somewhat bullish on his potential to click with Foles, projecting a career-high in catches (currently 52 last year) and yards (759 in 2011). Hopefully that translates into more than his career-best 5 TDs. It needs to. No other TE figures to see more than 20 targets or 1 TD.
5. Can the back seven on defense come close to matching the line?
My wife watches a freakish amount of those house shopping and remodeling shows on TV. One of the more recurring themes on programs like “Flip of Flop” is a house with a beautiful front, one which catches your eye with great curb appeal. The Rams certainly have that with their outstanding defensive front. They’re a million-dollar mansion with the front line.
Then the buyers open the front door and find a kitchen more befitting a third world outpost. The countertops are chartreuse and print wallpaper covers the walls. All that attention to the front, but the rest of the place is barely functional. Ladies and gentlemen, that’s the Rams defense in a nutshell.
As with those houses, there is deep-rooted potential. James Laurinaitis and Akeem Ayers are both solid role players at linebacker who fit nicely next to each other. Laurinaitis has never met the lofty expectations many (myself included) held for him coming out of Ohio State, but he’s a sure tackler with good instincts. Baby Animal just doesn’t instigate enough action or attack downhill well. Ayers is a smart signing, another former Fisher Titan who earned a ring in a brief stint in New England. Like Laurinaitis, he’s more of a clean-up tackler versus the run but he offers blitzing potential and has excellent chase speed and range. They’re limited, but together they are an adequate foundation to build around.
Alas, Alec Ogletree is the other outside linebacker. Ogletree is an outstanding athlete but not a natural football player. To his, and Williams’ credit, the Rams have largely figured out how to minimize his weaknesses and put him in position to be at his best. He can blitz well, notably on delayed secondary attacks. He can play wide in the formation and drop into short-range coverage nicely. He can run blitz and crash the B-gap very adeptly. What he cannot do is handle a block, not even a token effort by a small slot receiver. He cannot quickly diagnose opposing blocking schemes. He cannot stay at home in containment. He cannot cover anyone not immediately in front of him. The third-year pro from Georgia also misses an inordinate amount of tackles. Pro Football Focus had him for 20 missed tackles, but that only counts plays where he is in position to make the play; there are at least that many more where Ogletree is simply not where he is supposed to be to even make an attempt. He’s crown molding and a drop ceiling for a dining room with water damage under the floorboards and pink cherub wallpaper covering termite holes on the walls.
The only LB depth is JoLonn Dunbar, who is sort of like a lesser athletic Ogletree. Yes, it’s as bad as it sounds. Rookie Bryce Hager is a lightweight nibbler who has some promise as a nickel package sub. Beyond that, the Rams ought to be scouring the waiver wire for warm bodies.
As for the secondary, my good friend Ian Wharton succinctly encapsulated the problems with a Vine from the Dallas game:
Woof. Jenkins guessed deep out or comeback and Dez hits the post. Yikes. https://t.co/7N4ZUpDozj
— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) July 17, 2015
Corner Janoris Jenkins makes a lot of plays like that. He’s a gambler and a guesser, albeit a very quick one with excellent ball skills. Defenses can manage, and even thrive, with players like Jenkins, but it requires strong safety play and field awareness by the rest of the back seven.
Look at the safety in that Vine. That’s a terrifying lack of awareness. You see that a lot in watching Rams games, notably with Rodney McLeod. Like Ogletree, he’s a player where his PFF grade is artificially inflated by him being so far out of position it looks as if he’s not responsible for the play, but he is. It’s not to that extreme with corner Trumaine Johnson, but he’s a safety playing CB who really struggles with both long speed and agility.
To be fair there is youthful promise in a pair of 2014 rookies. Corner E.J. Gaines got torched a few times but was generally solid. He’s instinctive and uses his length well. He already usurped Johnson’s starting role and should be even better in his second season. Safety T.J. McDonald blossomed as his rookie campaign progressed, particularly as a run defender. His aggression and nose for the ball really stood out in late games against Arizona and the Giants. If he can break his nasty habit of moving forward at the snap on every play, which often leaves him out of position in coverage situations, McDonald has a chance to be a very good safety. He needs to be, as there is zero depth outside of Johnson moving to safety or mighty mite in the slot Lamarcus Joyner, another 2014 rookie, dropping back.
Forecast
These Rams figure to be a test for just how far a dominant defensive line can carry a team. Jeff Fisher has assembled a fantastic line, but questions abound around it. Nick Foles should bring better stability at quarterback, and the running game could be strong if the offensive line shakes out to be even average. Outstanding special teams provide a boon, and that can be the difference in close games.
In looking at this team, I’m strangely reminded of the 2012 Detroit Lions. Like these Rams, that team featured an oft-dominant defensive line which even featured current Ram Nick Fairley. Like these Rams, the secondary and linebackers behind it were scattershot and inconsistent. When they produced turnovers and controlled third downs, they won.
Of course that Lions team had Matthew Stafford, coming off a 5000-yard, 41 TD campaign, throwing to Calvin Johnson. These Rams? Nick Foles to Kenny Britt doesn’t even come close, though the running game will help to some extent. I worry the offense will not be able to outscore the meager total the strong defense should allow most weeks. Pencil in a win or two thanks to the special teams, and I can see why the win total is set at eight. I’m not that optimistic, however.
I watched those 2012 Lions plummet from a playoff team the year prior to a 4-12 disaster. A great defensive line can only do so much, and mobile quarterbacks who can create and escape are a real problem. Look at the QBs on the schedule: Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick twice each, Aaron Rodgers, Teddy Bridgewater, Ben Roethlisberger, Robert Griffin, Jameis Winston and even the aforementioned Stafford can all create and escape with their legs. It’s a bad schedule for a team so heavily reliant on getting sacks to get the defense off the field. They’ll get their share, and on weeks where the offense clicks they’ll be a very tough foe. I see that happening no more than 6 times. If I were a betting man I would hammer the under on the eight win total. These Rams once again finish at 6-10.
