2011 Adjusted Games Lost

[Anonymous]

"Charley" <rampage@lists.rollanet.info>

Here's an interesting article about FootballOutsiders.com's adjusted games lost (AGL) metric.

A factoid before reading the article: "The 2011 St. Louis Rams became the second-most injured team since 2002. Only the 2009 Buffalo Bills had it worse off."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/2011-adjusted-games-lost

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS

11 May 2012

2011 Adjusted Games Lost

by Danny Tuccitto

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/2011-adjusted-games-lost

...

EXCERPT:

Let's start with a few teams -- other than Indianapolis -- that had their seasons short-circuited by injury.

With their 110.0 AGL, the 2011 St. Louis Rams became the second-most injured team since 2002. Only the 2009 Buffalo Bills had it worse off. And like those Bills, the main contribution to the 2011 Rams AGL came from their defensive backfield, where their top three cornerbacks -- four if you count early-camp casualty Jerome Murphy -- were already out for the year by Week 10.

Also not helping matters were another year of carnage at wide receiver (29.0 AGL after 26.4 in 2010) and 5.7 AGL for Sam Bradford. With injuries affecting the (offensive and defensive) passing game this much, it's no wonder St. Louis went from the cusp of the playoffs to winning only two games.

The team that saw the largest absolute increase in AGL (from 10.0 to 65.5) was Kansas City, so it's no surprise they lost three more games last season than in 2010. The interesting thing about the Chiefs is that about 60 percent of their AGL came from only four (albeit vital) players: Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, and Eric Berry. Otherwise, they were an incredibly healthy squad: If not for those four significant losses, they would have ranked third overall.

Moving on to teams that saw their win totals clearly benefit from increased health in 2011, we have the two playoff participants from the NFC North. Detroit went from a team ranked in the middle of the AGL pack in 2010 to one of the healthiest teams in the league last season. Most of that good fortune came at quarterback, where Matthew Stafford's newfound durability resulted in a full season's worth of improved AGL at the position.

Classifying Green Bay as a team helped by increased health seems a bit odd given that they were coming off a Super Bowl championship in 2010. But remember that they only won 10 games that year. The same way improved health can be the catalyst for a rise from mediocrity (as in Detroit), it can also play a role in a 10-6 team improving to 15-1. Healthy seasons from Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant dropped AGL at tight end and running back from 26.6 to 1.3, which likely contributed to a 24.5% improvement in offensive DVOA.

 

[-X-]

2009 Bills had it worse? Ehhhh. I don't know about making a definitive statement like that when the whole thing is subjective. Maybe they had *more* injuries, but when you're left with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans playing a full slate of games and you have Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch sharing 16 games to the tune of 1500 yards, you tend to be in relatively good shape. And I think they had two OL playing a full 16 games too. Of course once you get into losing 3 OL, you're up the creek anyway.

Oh. And look at who they beat.

 

[Thordaddy]

2009 Bills had it worse? Ehhhh. I don't know about making a definitive statement like that when the whole thing is subjective. Maybe they had *more* injuries, but when you're left with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans playing a full slate of games and you have Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch sharing 16 games to the tune of 1500 yards, you tend to be in relatively good shape. And I think they had two OL playing a full 16 games too. Of course once you get into losing 3 OL, you're up the creek anyway.

Oh. And look at who they beat.

And yet they fired Dick Jauron:

The decision to fire Jauron came after his Bills team stumbled to a 3-6 start in his fourth, and most critical, season as coach. Jauron ends his Bills career with a record of 24-33.

IF Spags had been retained and gone 16-0 his record would have been 26-38,two more wins than Jauron and 5 more losses.

I'm looking forward we all need to.

 

[-X-]

2009 Bills had it worse? Ehhhh. I don't know about making a definitive statement like that when the whole thing is subjective. Maybe they had *more* injuries, but when you're left with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans playing a full slate of games and you have Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch sharing 16 games to the tune of 1500 yards, you tend to be in relatively good shape. And I think they had two OL playing a full 16 games too. Of course once you get into losing 3 OL, you're up the creek anyway.

Oh. And look at who they beat.

And yet they fired Dick Jauron:

The decision to fire Jauron came after his Bills team stumbled to a 3-6 start in his fourth, and most critical, season as coach. Jauron ends his Bills career with a record of 24-33.

Yup. But let's lift the veil here. We're talking about Spagnuolo obviously, and Jauron is just the hologram we're using to indirectly talk about him. What happens, almost universally, is when you lose a bunch of games - no matter how or why - you're gonna get canned. If I recall, a bunch of people wanted to see what would happen if Spags went into his 4th year. Not because he kept the team playing hard. That's just a bonus. Instead, to see what he could do if/when those conditions weren't present. I don't know about anyone else, but I never thought he had a stacked team to work with. Some of that was because of his own doing (cutting players that needed to be developed), some of it was due to circumstance, and some of it was just because it was an impossible endeavor to begin with. Taking over a team that needed to be stripped down, being presented with a free agent market that was not only thin, but consisted of players that had no desire to play for the Rams, and then drafting at a time when very few teams wanted to take on high salaries associated with the top picks (e.g., trading up).

Either way, we're better off now. IMO. I don't think there was a real good dynamic between Devaney and Spagnuolo. They were kind of only joined in philosophy, but not in vision. It looks like Snead and Fisher could be a great pairing, and I hope they get to remain together for at least a decade. No matter what happens this year, or next year, or the one after that. This Organization needs stability like nobody's business.

 

[Thordaddy]

2009 Bills had it worse? Ehhhh. I don't know about making a definitive statement like that when the whole thing is subjective. Maybe they had *more* injuries, but when you're left with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans playing a full slate of games and you have Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch sharing 16 games to the tune of 1500 yards, you tend to be in relatively good shape. And I think they had two OL playing a full 16 games too. Of course once you get into losing 3 OL, you're up the creek anyway.

Oh. And look at who they beat.

And yet they fired Dick Jauron:

The decision to fire Jauron came after his Bills team stumbled to a 3-6 start in his fourth, and most critical, season as coach. Jauron ends his Bills career with a record of 24-33.

Yup. But let's lift the veil here. We're talking about Spagnuolo obviously, and Jauron is just the hologram we're using to indirectly talk about him. What happens, almost universally, is when you lose a bunch of games - no matter how or why - you're gonna get canned. If I recall, a bunch of people wanted to see what would happen if Spags went into his 4th year. Not because he kept the team playing hard. That's just a bonus. Instead, to see what he could do if/when those conditions weren't present. I don't know about anyone else, but I never thought he had a stacked team to work with. Some of that was because of his own doing (cutting players that needed to be developed), some of it was due to circumstance, and some of it was just because it was an impossible endeavor to begin with. Taking over a team that needed to be stripped down, being presented with a free agent market that was not only thin, but consisted of players that had no desire to play for the Rams, and then drafting at a time when very few teams wanted to take on high salaries associated with the top picks (e.g., trading up).

Either way, we're better off now. IMO. I don't think there was a real good dynamic between Devaney and Spagnuolo. They were kind of only joined in philosophy, but not in vision. It looks like Snead and Fisher could be a great pairing, and I hope they get to remain together for at least a decade. No matter what happens this year, or next year, or the one after that. This Organization needs stability like nobody's business.

Better OFF NOW,yes,and all would be better off if we ....well you know. :ww: