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10 NFL players set for down seasons in 2015
by Vincent Frank
There are numerous factors that lead to good players having down seasons in the NFL. One of the biggest factors here has to be a situation that's out of the player's control. Injury issues and an inability to remain healthy can cause previously solid performers to struggle a great deal when recovering from said injury.
Equally as important, front offices have failed some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the past couple years. That's where the likes of Russell Wilson and Cam Newton come into play. Both find themselves on this list simply because they don't have the offensive lines in front of them that other top signal callers boast.
In what promises to be a reality check for some of you out there, here's our look at 10 NFL players set for down seasons in 2015.
1. Russell Wilson, quarterback, Seattle Seahawks
The main point that needs to be made here is that any down season from Wilson wouldn't necessarily be his fault. It's all about a previously average offensive line now having to perform up to a decent level without the likes of Max Unger and James Carpenter. We have already seen Seattle's line shuffled around a bit this preseason after it allowed seven sacks in the opener. That's never a good sign.
Russell Okung is entrenched in as the starting left tackle with J.R. Sweezy looking solid next to him at left guard. Outside of that, there's a whole heck of a lot of issues on this line. And while Wilson is among the best at avoiding pressure, downgrading on the offensive line could surely impact him. That's only magnified by the level of talent opposing teams have on their defensive lines this season.
The other concern here has to be injury. No one wants to talk about it, but Wilson isn't the biggest of quarterbacks in terms of stature. A continued pounding behind what has to be considered a shoddy offensive line could see the Super Bowl-winning quarterback go down to injury.
2. Peyton Manning, quarterback, Denver Broncos
Manning played with torn right quads for the final month of the 2014 season. Needless to say, this had a lot to do with the struggles we saw. After starting the year by throwing 22 touchdowns compared to three interceptions in his first seven games, Manning had a 17/12 split in his final nine games. In fact, the future Hall of Fame quarterback tallied just three touchdowns compared to six interceptions in his final four regular season outings.
Now in a completely different offense under an entirely new offensive coaching staff, it remains to be seen just how comfortable Manning will be early on this season. More than that, losing both Ryan Clady (torn ACL) and Orlando Franklin (free agency) is going to hurt big time. Most quarterbacks will struggle after losing their two-best offensive linemen. Now take into account Manning's lack of mobility, and that has to be a concern.
3. Calvin Johnson, wide receiver, Detroit Lions
Over the past two seasons, Matthew Stafford has completed 57 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions when targeting Johnson. During that same span, Stafford has completed 60 percent of his passes with 31 touchdowns and 18 interceptions to the rest of the team. If that's not forcing the ball to your primary target, I am not sure what is.
None of this is meant to discount Johnson. He's among the best all-around receivers in the game. Instead, it's to say that Stafford has made a point of forcing the ball to him — 11 targets per game over the past three seasons. With Golden Taint showing that he can take some of the onus off Johnson, the same volume of targets likely won't be there. It's also important to note that Johnson has dealt with nagging injuries the past two seasons, missing a total of five games.
4. Cam Newton, quarterback, Carolina Panthers
Let's preface this by indicating that the Panthers front office has failed Newton at every turn. Why invest huge money on a franchise quarterback while throwing him out there behind a bad offensive line? Carolina has had an opportunity to improve this line in each of the past two offseasons, mainly in free agency, and has come away with Michael Oher. Heck, even Jonathan Martin stepped away from the game after Carolina picked him up off waivers from the San Francisco 49ers.
Last season saw Newton pressured 36 percent of the time he dropped back to pass. The solution was to sign a player in Oher who Pro Football Focus graded out as the 75th-best offensive tackle among 84 qualified players last year.
Much like with Wilson above, Newton isn't really to blame for finding himself in this article. This is only magnified by the loss of No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin for the entire season after he tore his ACL in practice this summer. A total of 46 percent of Newton's targets to receivers last year went to Benjamin. It's hard to imagine rookie second-round pick Devin Funchess being able to pick up the slack there.
5. A.J. Green, wide receiver, Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason football is a meaningless exercise for star players. But ESPN's recent broadcast of the Bengals game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got me thinking. Aided by some stats the network ran after an Andy Dalton pass tipped off Green's hands for a Buccaneers pick-six, I decided to check in on some stats here. And they are not friendly to the Dalton-Green tandem.
When targeting Green over the past two seasons, Dalton has put up a 57 percent completion rate with 17 touchdowns, 18 interceptions and a 77.9 quarterback rating. During that very same span, Dalton boasts 35 touchdowns compared to 19 interceptions for a 89.7 rating when not targeting his star receiver. As we saw with Green's drop in that otherwise meaningless preseason game, this isn't all on Dalton. The Pro Bowl receiver has dropped a total of 25 passes over the past three seasons.
Now that the Bengals have one of the most-talented running back tandems in the NFL in the form of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, the expectation here has to be more balance on offense. With third-year tight end Tyler Eifert showing himself to be healthy and ready to break out big time, all the onus won't be on Green in the passing game.
Green's numbers were down considerably last season, but most of that had to do with a shoulder injury that saw him in obvious pain when actually taking to the field. Statistically speaking, his struggles this year will likely have to do with less targets and more balance on the Bengals' offense. Hopefully this increases the success Dalton has when throwing to his top receiver.
6. LeSean McCoy, running back, Buffalo Bills
New Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman has a history of success when it comes to the running game. San Francisco finished in the top-10 in rushing yards all four seasons he coordinated the team's offense. Overrated as an in-game play-caller, Roman is a solid run-game coordinator. That coupled with Rex Ryan-led team's having an affinity for running the ball, and the expectation here should be that McCoy will have a great season.
Unfortunately, there are just too many factors working against the former Philadelphia Eagles Pro Bowler. He left a team with an offensive line that Pro Football Focus graded out as the best in the entire NFL in terms of running blocking to join a squad that ranked 31st in that category last season. Overall, the Bills' ranked 25th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (92.6) and tied for 26th in average yards per rush (3.7) last year.
Now factor into account the stout defensive lines McCoy will be going up against in the AFC East, and it's easy to draw the conclusion that he's going to have a down year. That's magnified by the fact that the 27-year-old running back averaged just 2.1 yards per rush after contact last season. This doesn't even take into account that McCoy has been out since Week 1 of the preseason with a hamstring injury.
7. Clay Matthews, linebacker, Green Bay Packers
No matter where the Packers play Matthews this year (most likely inside the majority of the time), opposing offenses are going to be zeroing in on him without much other proven talent at linebacker. Sure Julius Peppers can provide that pass-rush threat, but it's hard to imagine him excelling in a large role at the ripe age of 35. Outside of that, there's very little to see here.
Matthews may be one of the best linebackers in the NFL, but he can't do it himself. The likes of Nick Perry, Sam Barrington, Nate Palmer and Carl Bradford — all of whom are going to be vying for snaps — aren't going to scare offenses enough to prepare for them on a weekly basis. That puts Matthews in the unenviable position of having to take on double teams without a defined role. It also forces him into a situation of having to cover the opposition's tight end while continuing to play a quasi pass-rush role. Simply put, the Packers are asking too much of the five-time Pro Bowler here.
8. Byron Maxwell, cornerback, Philadelphia Eagles
Maxwell looked pretty good when he had three All-Pro performers and potential Hall of Famers in the same defensive backfield with him in Seattle. Though, I am pretty sure a 50-year-old Deion Sanders would look good in that situation. But I digress.
Despite having that talent to help him cover the back end of the defense, Maxwell allowed a 63.4 percent completion rate when targeted last year. He also struggled a great deal in the playoffs with some of his teammates slowed down by injury.
Now in a situation with the Eagles that won't see him helped out a great deal by what has to be considered below-average safety play, Maxwell is going to be out there on an island. And while he did go up against the other team's top corner on occasion with Seattle playing corners coverage, that will be his sole responsibility this year. Good luck against the likes of Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr. in the NFC East. It's not the same as going up against the Michael Crabtrees and Brian Quicks of the world.
9. Andre Ellington, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals
Something just doesn't feel right here. If Arizona were sold on Ellington to be the team's three-down back, it wouldn't have exhausted a third-round pick on David Johnson and signed Chris Johnson off the street. While a stellar performer with the ball in his hands, Ellington is averaging less than 12 attempts per game in his first two seasons. He also missed four games to injury last year and had been dealing with a hamstring injury this summer. At 5-foot-10 and less than 200 pounds, there has to be some concern over Ellington's durability at the NFL level — durability that will be tested against physical NFC West defenses.
Back to the younger Johnson for a second. The Northern Iowa product, who was also nursing a hamstring injury prior to last week, looked great in his preseason debut against the San Diego Chargers. He's the type of back that might be better suited for a primary ball-carrier role in this offense. That's something to look at as the season progresses.
10. Marcus Mariota, quarterback, Tennessee Titans
This can't be considered too much of a surprise. Playing behind an offensive line that allowed 50 sacks a season ago, Mariota's athletic ability will be tested out of the gate as a rookie. More than that, he simply doesn't have a reliable running game to count on. Neither Bishop Sankey nor David Cobb have been extremely impressive in camp. And while there is talent here, Mariota doesn't have that one true three-down back to rely on.
On the outside, the reigning Heisman winner has three receivers with a lot to prove. Justin Hunter, who was everyone's darling heading into the 2014 campaign, caught a grand total of 42 percent of the passes thrown in his direction last year. He's joined by a fourth-year receiver in Kendall Wright who saw most of his major receiving numbers decline a great deal last season. In addition to this, rookie wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham is about as raw as they come. He's in no position, as a first-year player, to help a young signal caller out by providing a consistent target in the passing game.
None of this takes into account Mariota's own downfalls. While he has a chance to be a dynamic quarterback in the NFL, the former Oregon standout would have been best suited sitting a season. Unfortunately, hearing his named called No. 2 overall in May made this an impossibility.
10 NFL players set for down seasons in 2015
by Vincent Frank
There are numerous factors that lead to good players having down seasons in the NFL. One of the biggest factors here has to be a situation that's out of the player's control. Injury issues and an inability to remain healthy can cause previously solid performers to struggle a great deal when recovering from said injury.
Equally as important, front offices have failed some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the past couple years. That's where the likes of Russell Wilson and Cam Newton come into play. Both find themselves on this list simply because they don't have the offensive lines in front of them that other top signal callers boast.
In what promises to be a reality check for some of you out there, here's our look at 10 NFL players set for down seasons in 2015.
1. Russell Wilson, quarterback, Seattle Seahawks
The main point that needs to be made here is that any down season from Wilson wouldn't necessarily be his fault. It's all about a previously average offensive line now having to perform up to a decent level without the likes of Max Unger and James Carpenter. We have already seen Seattle's line shuffled around a bit this preseason after it allowed seven sacks in the opener. That's never a good sign.
Russell Okung is entrenched in as the starting left tackle with J.R. Sweezy looking solid next to him at left guard. Outside of that, there's a whole heck of a lot of issues on this line. And while Wilson is among the best at avoiding pressure, downgrading on the offensive line could surely impact him. That's only magnified by the level of talent opposing teams have on their defensive lines this season.
The other concern here has to be injury. No one wants to talk about it, but Wilson isn't the biggest of quarterbacks in terms of stature. A continued pounding behind what has to be considered a shoddy offensive line could see the Super Bowl-winning quarterback go down to injury.
2. Peyton Manning, quarterback, Denver Broncos
Manning played with torn right quads for the final month of the 2014 season. Needless to say, this had a lot to do with the struggles we saw. After starting the year by throwing 22 touchdowns compared to three interceptions in his first seven games, Manning had a 17/12 split in his final nine games. In fact, the future Hall of Fame quarterback tallied just three touchdowns compared to six interceptions in his final four regular season outings.
Now in a completely different offense under an entirely new offensive coaching staff, it remains to be seen just how comfortable Manning will be early on this season. More than that, losing both Ryan Clady (torn ACL) and Orlando Franklin (free agency) is going to hurt big time. Most quarterbacks will struggle after losing their two-best offensive linemen. Now take into account Manning's lack of mobility, and that has to be a concern.
3. Calvin Johnson, wide receiver, Detroit Lions
Over the past two seasons, Matthew Stafford has completed 57 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions when targeting Johnson. During that same span, Stafford has completed 60 percent of his passes with 31 touchdowns and 18 interceptions to the rest of the team. If that's not forcing the ball to your primary target, I am not sure what is.
None of this is meant to discount Johnson. He's among the best all-around receivers in the game. Instead, it's to say that Stafford has made a point of forcing the ball to him — 11 targets per game over the past three seasons. With Golden Taint showing that he can take some of the onus off Johnson, the same volume of targets likely won't be there. It's also important to note that Johnson has dealt with nagging injuries the past two seasons, missing a total of five games.
4. Cam Newton, quarterback, Carolina Panthers
Let's preface this by indicating that the Panthers front office has failed Newton at every turn. Why invest huge money on a franchise quarterback while throwing him out there behind a bad offensive line? Carolina has had an opportunity to improve this line in each of the past two offseasons, mainly in free agency, and has come away with Michael Oher. Heck, even Jonathan Martin stepped away from the game after Carolina picked him up off waivers from the San Francisco 49ers.
Last season saw Newton pressured 36 percent of the time he dropped back to pass. The solution was to sign a player in Oher who Pro Football Focus graded out as the 75th-best offensive tackle among 84 qualified players last year.
Much like with Wilson above, Newton isn't really to blame for finding himself in this article. This is only magnified by the loss of No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin for the entire season after he tore his ACL in practice this summer. A total of 46 percent of Newton's targets to receivers last year went to Benjamin. It's hard to imagine rookie second-round pick Devin Funchess being able to pick up the slack there.
5. A.J. Green, wide receiver, Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason football is a meaningless exercise for star players. But ESPN's recent broadcast of the Bengals game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got me thinking. Aided by some stats the network ran after an Andy Dalton pass tipped off Green's hands for a Buccaneers pick-six, I decided to check in on some stats here. And they are not friendly to the Dalton-Green tandem.
When targeting Green over the past two seasons, Dalton has put up a 57 percent completion rate with 17 touchdowns, 18 interceptions and a 77.9 quarterback rating. During that very same span, Dalton boasts 35 touchdowns compared to 19 interceptions for a 89.7 rating when not targeting his star receiver. As we saw with Green's drop in that otherwise meaningless preseason game, this isn't all on Dalton. The Pro Bowl receiver has dropped a total of 25 passes over the past three seasons.
Now that the Bengals have one of the most-talented running back tandems in the NFL in the form of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, the expectation here has to be more balance on offense. With third-year tight end Tyler Eifert showing himself to be healthy and ready to break out big time, all the onus won't be on Green in the passing game.
Green's numbers were down considerably last season, but most of that had to do with a shoulder injury that saw him in obvious pain when actually taking to the field. Statistically speaking, his struggles this year will likely have to do with less targets and more balance on the Bengals' offense. Hopefully this increases the success Dalton has when throwing to his top receiver.
6. LeSean McCoy, running back, Buffalo Bills
New Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman has a history of success when it comes to the running game. San Francisco finished in the top-10 in rushing yards all four seasons he coordinated the team's offense. Overrated as an in-game play-caller, Roman is a solid run-game coordinator. That coupled with Rex Ryan-led team's having an affinity for running the ball, and the expectation here should be that McCoy will have a great season.
Unfortunately, there are just too many factors working against the former Philadelphia Eagles Pro Bowler. He left a team with an offensive line that Pro Football Focus graded out as the best in the entire NFL in terms of running blocking to join a squad that ranked 31st in that category last season. Overall, the Bills' ranked 25th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (92.6) and tied for 26th in average yards per rush (3.7) last year.
Now factor into account the stout defensive lines McCoy will be going up against in the AFC East, and it's easy to draw the conclusion that he's going to have a down year. That's magnified by the fact that the 27-year-old running back averaged just 2.1 yards per rush after contact last season. This doesn't even take into account that McCoy has been out since Week 1 of the preseason with a hamstring injury.
7. Clay Matthews, linebacker, Green Bay Packers
No matter where the Packers play Matthews this year (most likely inside the majority of the time), opposing offenses are going to be zeroing in on him without much other proven talent at linebacker. Sure Julius Peppers can provide that pass-rush threat, but it's hard to imagine him excelling in a large role at the ripe age of 35. Outside of that, there's very little to see here.
Matthews may be one of the best linebackers in the NFL, but he can't do it himself. The likes of Nick Perry, Sam Barrington, Nate Palmer and Carl Bradford — all of whom are going to be vying for snaps — aren't going to scare offenses enough to prepare for them on a weekly basis. That puts Matthews in the unenviable position of having to take on double teams without a defined role. It also forces him into a situation of having to cover the opposition's tight end while continuing to play a quasi pass-rush role. Simply put, the Packers are asking too much of the five-time Pro Bowler here.
8. Byron Maxwell, cornerback, Philadelphia Eagles
Maxwell looked pretty good when he had three All-Pro performers and potential Hall of Famers in the same defensive backfield with him in Seattle. Though, I am pretty sure a 50-year-old Deion Sanders would look good in that situation. But I digress.
Despite having that talent to help him cover the back end of the defense, Maxwell allowed a 63.4 percent completion rate when targeted last year. He also struggled a great deal in the playoffs with some of his teammates slowed down by injury.
Now in a situation with the Eagles that won't see him helped out a great deal by what has to be considered below-average safety play, Maxwell is going to be out there on an island. And while he did go up against the other team's top corner on occasion with Seattle playing corners coverage, that will be his sole responsibility this year. Good luck against the likes of Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr. in the NFC East. It's not the same as going up against the Michael Crabtrees and Brian Quicks of the world.
9. Andre Ellington, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals
Something just doesn't feel right here. If Arizona were sold on Ellington to be the team's three-down back, it wouldn't have exhausted a third-round pick on David Johnson and signed Chris Johnson off the street. While a stellar performer with the ball in his hands, Ellington is averaging less than 12 attempts per game in his first two seasons. He also missed four games to injury last year and had been dealing with a hamstring injury this summer. At 5-foot-10 and less than 200 pounds, there has to be some concern over Ellington's durability at the NFL level — durability that will be tested against physical NFC West defenses.
Back to the younger Johnson for a second. The Northern Iowa product, who was also nursing a hamstring injury prior to last week, looked great in his preseason debut against the San Diego Chargers. He's the type of back that might be better suited for a primary ball-carrier role in this offense. That's something to look at as the season progresses.
10. Marcus Mariota, quarterback, Tennessee Titans
This can't be considered too much of a surprise. Playing behind an offensive line that allowed 50 sacks a season ago, Mariota's athletic ability will be tested out of the gate as a rookie. More than that, he simply doesn't have a reliable running game to count on. Neither Bishop Sankey nor David Cobb have been extremely impressive in camp. And while there is talent here, Mariota doesn't have that one true three-down back to rely on.
On the outside, the reigning Heisman winner has three receivers with a lot to prove. Justin Hunter, who was everyone's darling heading into the 2014 campaign, caught a grand total of 42 percent of the passes thrown in his direction last year. He's joined by a fourth-year receiver in Kendall Wright who saw most of his major receiving numbers decline a great deal last season. In addition to this, rookie wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham is about as raw as they come. He's in no position, as a first-year player, to help a young signal caller out by providing a consistent target in the passing game.
None of this takes into account Mariota's own downfalls. While he has a chance to be a dynamic quarterback in the NFL, the former Oregon standout would have been best suited sitting a season. Unfortunately, hearing his named called No. 2 overall in May made this an impossibility.