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Buccaneers-Rams: Why Cooper Kupp, not Todd Gurley, is Los Angeles’ true threat
In this preview: What Aqib Talib thinks of Jameis Winston, the bright spot in Tampa Bay’s pass defense and why Bruce Arians should quit stomping that mud hole.
Why Cooper Kupp, not Todd Gurley, is Los Angeles Rams true threat
Not long ago, the Rams were truly lost. They went a full decade without a winning season. They cycled through coaches and quarterbacks. They even relocated from St. Louis to Los Angeles.Then, in 2017, a bright offensive mastermind offered a path out of the darkness.
Sean McVay, who had been an assistant coach for Washington for seven seasons, immediately transformed the Rams into an NFC juggernaut. They went from scoring the fewest points in the NFL to scoring the most.
How? Sure, he had Jared Goff and Todd Gurley and Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins and, later, Brandin Cooks.But that was just a collection of football players. Good football players, yes, but just football players. Football players can be beaten.
McVay took that collection of football players and molded them into something else entirely. He built more than an offense and devoted himself to an ideal: “We not me.” Together, McVay’s Rams could not be stopped. They became contemporary legends.
That might seem like an overstatement, but is it really? How many times this past offseason did you hear the phrase “the next Sean McVay”? Any assistant coach who shook hands with someone who shook hands with someone who shook hands with McVay got an interview for a head coach position. A couple actually got jobs: Matt LaFleur is in Green Bay interpreting Aaron Rodgers’ passive-aggressive stares, and Zac Taylor is in Cincinnati lamenting his decision to move to a city that’s known for little else than being too close to Kentucky.
McVay is enthusiastic and intelligent, but so are a lot of people in the NFL. How’s he different? He has harnessed the power of theatricality and deception. He’s the Ra’s al Ghul of the NFL, and he has designs on wiping out the Buccaneers on Sunday.Much of the talk in the lead-up to the confrontation between the Rams and Bucs has been about Todd Gurley and the importance of stopping the run, but Gurley, whose knees are deteriorating, is no longer the explosive workhorse back that he used to be. Though he still can be effective in bursts, he is more of a distraction than a true threat.
The player to keep an eye on is Cooper Kupp, the team leader in targets, catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. His 53.5 percent catch rate per route is the 10th highest in the NFL, as is his 2.6 yards per route. As Kupp goes, so go the Rams. Without Kupp last season, the Los Angeles offense was much less productive and efficient.
Just throw a bunch of extra defensive backs on the field and stick two on Kupp, right? Well, that might not matter because McVay is good at scheming him open (Kupp’s 3.4 average yards of separation ranks 17th among receivers). Credit his heavy use of backfield motion and run fakes. The objective is to confuse defenders, to either coax them away from the point of attack or slow down their reaction time. A moment of hesitation or one step in the wrong direction can make all the difference.
Take, for instance, a third-and-1 play against the Browns in Week 3. Cleveland’s defensive front bit on a fake handoff to Gurley, and Kupp, who lined up on the outside right edge of the offensive line, ran a shallow crossing route behind the linebackers. Kupp was wide open and turned a 4-yard pass into a 22-yard gain.
Rams at Browns, 2019: Jared Goff to Cooper Kupp for 22 yards. [NFL Game Pass]
We saw the Rams execute the same concept against the Saints last season for a 41-yard touchdown.
Rams at Saints, 2018: Jared Goff to Cooper Kupp for a 41-yard touchdown. [NFL Game Pass]
The Rams use play-action on more than a third of their pass plays. Their 34 percent rate ranks fifth, down just a couple of ticks from their league-leading 36 percent rate last season. The difference between play-action passes and other passes: about 2 more yards per play.
The Bucs have struggled defending such passes this season. They’ve allowed nearly 10 yards per play-action pass (23rd), which is 4 yards more than on other passes.What makes the Rams’ play-action game so dangerous, especially with Kupp on the field, is their ability to make you think you know what’s coming.Kupp sometimes will mimic a run-blocking tight end and then sneak out on a pass pattern. He did just that against the Seahawks last season, but instead of running a shallow crossing route over the middle, he slammed on the brakes, pivoted and cut toward the sideline. Goff hit him for an easy 17-yard gain.
Rams at Seahawks, 2018: Jared Goff to Cooper Kupp for 17 yards. [NFL Game Pass]
Kupp doesn’t just kill defenses by catching short passes and racking up yards afterward. He’s a weapon down the field on deep crossing routes, too. Here’s another example, a 27-yard gain, from that Seahawks game:
Rams at Seahawks, 2018: Jared Goff to Cooper Kupp for 27 yards. [NFL Game Pass]
And what happens when safeties try to take away Kupp’s deep crossing routes? They risk leaving speed merchant Brandin Cooks one-on-one, which the Saints did in Week 2:
Saints at Rams, 2019: Jared Goff to Brandin Cooks for 57 yards. [NFL Game Pass]
This game couldn’t come at a worse time for the Bucs. Their young secondary is reeling. Tampa Bay has allowed eight gains of 30 or more yards this season, second most.
The Bucs are going to make mistakes. They’re going to allow catches. They’re going to surrender chunks of yards. The priority is limiting the explosive plays. The refrain in the locker room this week: Mind your surroundings and do your job.
“It’s a 60-minute battle,” defensive back M.J. Stewart said. “Keep your eyes where they need to be. Know who your man is. If all 11 people do their job, every play, 60 minutes, we’ll get it done.”And if all 11 don’t do their job?Said linebacker Kevin Minter: “You’re going to catch them 20, 30 yards down the field, if that.”
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