Who's gonna take the risk on Clowney?

[RaminExile]

Ok - so the more I've been thinking about this upcoming draft the more interesting it seems to be to me. This year there is no unanimous number one prospect - despite the fact that there appears to be a guy who most talent evaluators think is a once in a decade prospect at possibly the most game changing position in football - the defensive end from South Carolina - Jadeveon Clowney. And yet it looks like everyone has got a reason to pass on him;

Houston needs a QB.
Rams are set at DE.
Jacksonville needs more offense,
Cleveland needs a QB,
Oakland needs a QB and then everything else

Frankly - the first team I see in the draft that needs a defensive lineman is Atlanta at 6. And most people see them trading up for Clowney. I don't see the point personally. I think he's still gonna be there at six.

What I want to know is - does anyone else think Jadeveon Clowney falls out of the top 5 - and if so - where does he go??

 

[CGI_Ram]

It's interesting speculation.

But, no. IMO; he goes no later than #2 to St. Louis or Atlanta.

If he falls past there, someone else trades up. And, don't rule out Jax/Cleveland to straight up select him.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Nope. Clowney will be the 1st, 2nd, or MAYBE 3rd player selected (only if the Rams trade down with team that wants a QB and Houston takes one, too).

IMO, your line of thought is too immediate need focused. When teams pick this high they seem to lean more towards perceived BPA best I can tell. Look no further than the 2013 NFL Draft. Did the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Eagles really need those OTs with Albert, Monroe, and Peters on their rosters?

 

[mr.stlouis]

WE ARE!!! Yeah baby! Lol

Seriously, though, of nobody wants to caugh up the dough then he's my pick.

 

[Yamahopper]

I don't see how Clowney is more risky than another. He is really less risk since he's BPA of the draft class. Every player has flaws. Flaws are the risk value. He has less flaws.

 

[RaminExile]

I don't see how Clowney is more risky than another. He is really less risk since he's BPA of the draft class. Every player has flaws. Flaws are the risk value. He has less flaws.

Well ok - maybe he's not more risky than any other - but what I'm wondering his - who's gonna bite in the end? There's loads of speculation about who's taking who etc, I just want to know who people think is gonna be the team that takes him. I can't see anyone above Atlanta taking him - and if Atlanta don't I don't know where he could fall to.

 

[Yamahopper]

Well ok - maybe he's not more risky than any other - but what I'm wondering his - who's gonna bite in the end? There's loads of speculation about who's taking who etc, I just want to know who people think is gonna be the team that takes him. I can't see anyone above Atlanta taking him - and if Atlanta don't I don't know where he could fall to.

I don't see him getting past 2, either Rams or Falcons. Jax wants to trade down and so do the Browns. If he gets to 5 a team will jump up to get him.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I don't see him getting past 2, either Rams or Falcons. Jax wants to trade down and so do the Browns. If he gets to 5 a team will jump up to get him.

Does Jacksonville want to trade out? I hadn't heard that. I mean it makes sense to try to gather pick on a team with no talent, but if i was the Jags i'd be looking at the very real possibility that Clowney drops to them at #3 also.

 

[SierraRam]

I don't see him getting past 2, either Rams or Falcons. Jax wants to trade down and so do the Browns. If he gets to 5 a team will jump up to get him.

I don't think he gets past Jax. And the first 6 picks will go without a trade. All six teams will sit tight and draft an elite player

 

[Yamahopper]

I don't think he gets past Jax. And the first 6 picks will go without a trade. All six teams will sit tight and draft an elite player

Hope so.

 

[Yamahopper]

Does Jacksonville want to trade out? I hadn't heard that. I mean it makes sense to try to gather pick on a team with no talent, but if i was the Jags i'd be looking at the very real possibility that Clowney drops to them at #3 also.

I have read that. Even the Texans want to move down. The only team I heard that wants to move up is the Falcons for sure. Jax need lots of help. They are gonna suck for a couple more years. They really need to cut about 70% of the team. Who knows with the Browns. New lead dog running the show. They would love Watkins but might have to stay for a QB. If Watkins is gone and so is their QB they will trade out of it.
The teams that would like to move up for Clowney are so far down in the first that a trade is unrealistic. I mean how much would you need for the Rams to move down into the mid twenties? I wouldn't do it for another teams whole draft. Maybe 3 first's and a couple 2nd's.

Till I see something dif. Rams are going Clowney then Dennard / Gilbert. Guard in 2nd. Trade back up into late 2nd and get a safety. Pick some depth guys late and then go home.

 

[Alan]

Memphis Ram with a question:
Did the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Eagles really need those OTs with Albert, Monroe, and Peters on their rosters?

Albert and Monroe were let go and Peters is 32. So yeah, they did. It's not often that you're going to be in a position to draft one of the top LTs. That's why it's so important we get this draft right in that regard.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Albert and Monroe were let go and Peters is 32. So yeah, they did. It's not often that you're going to be in a position to draft one of the top LTs. That's why it's so important we get this draft right in that regard.

LT may have been deemed more of an immediate need for the Eagles due to Peters age and his coming off an injury the previous season (even though they just extended his contract last month).

But, Albert and Monroe were above average LTs let go because of the LTs selected in the 2013 draft. It made no sense for their teams to pay them the $$$ they were going to command after selecting a couple of cheaper alternatives at LTs who didn't fit the RT mold.

 

[max]

April 2.

Clowney's Pro Day.

This guy is such a freak, he is gonna blow everyone away with his athleticism and the media hype will follow for weeks, right up to the draft.

Expect Clowney to put on a show this week and solidify his #1 overall status.

I expect Houston to take him unless they get blown away with a trade deal.

 

[Alan]

Memphis Ram with this:
But, Albert and Monroe were above average LTs let go because of the LTs selected in the 2013 draft. It made no sense for their teams to pay them the $$$ they were going to command after selecting a couple of cheaper alternatives at LTs who didn't fit the RT mold.

Eugene Monroe's deal with the Ravens is 5 years, $37.5M, with $19M guaranteed. Only once in his 5 year career did he play a complete season.

Dolphins signed LT Branden Albert, formerly of the Chiefs, to a five-year, $46 million contract.
The deal includes a whopping $25 million guaranteed. It's a huge price to pay for a player who's always been short of elite, but the Dolphins had essentially no choice considering the beating Ryan Tannehill took in 2013. Albert has missed seven games with injury over the past two seasons, but will stabilize the Dolphins' blindside when he's on the field. He turns 30 in November. Only once in his 6 year career did he play a complete season.

So I disagree with your evaluation of these players and whether or not their teams needed them. If they were really happy with these guys they wouldn't have let them go. At least not at the salary that Monroe got and Albert is getting old.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Eugene Monroe's deal with the Ravens is 5 years, $37.5M, with $19M guaranteed. Only once in his 5 year career did he play a complete season.

Dolphins signed LT Branden Albert, formerly of the Chiefs, to a five-year, $46 million contract.
The deal includes a whopping $25 million guaranteed. It's a huge price to pay for a player who's always been short of elite, but the Dolphins had essentially no choice considering the beating Ryan Tannehill took in 2013. Albert has missed seven games with injury over the past two seasons, but will stabilize the Dolphins' blindside when he's on the field. He turns 30 in November. Only once in his 6 year career did he play a complete season.

So I disagree with your evaluation of these players and whether or not their teams needed them. If they were really happy with these guys they wouldn't have let them go. At least not at the salary that Monroe got and Albert is getting old.

Only one full season in 5 years sounds awful. But, if one took the time to look closer they would see that Monroe had only played 4 seasons prior to the 2013 draft and didn't miss one game the season prior to that draft. AND, not only that, but he only missed 3 games the prior 3 seasons. Plus even with their wretched QB play, he only gave up 4 sacks that entire pre-draft season. Doesn't sound nearly as bad now does it?

On to Branden Albert. Being considered short of elite is not a reason to move on from a LT as most starters are short of elite. Teams would be playing musical chairs with these guys every year if that were the case. Albert turns 30 in November of this year, however, he was only 28 years old on draft day 2013. He too, only had one complete season in his 6 year career. However again, he had only played 5 seasons prior to the 2013 draft. In those 5 seasons, he did miss 7 games and 3 were in 2012. However, in 2012, Albert only gave up 1 sack. This is probably one reason why they placed a franchise tag on this non-elite OT.

So for both scenarios, I ask........ If there were higher rated positions available in last year's draft class (QB Pass Rusher, etc), do you really believe that Monroe and Albert would be on different teams? Sorry, but I don't. I believe those teams would have either tried to re-sign/franchise them and went with another position player.

In fact, it appears that they tried but to, but failed via their attempts to trade down (can't forget that aspect). The difference is neither team was willing to do like the Raiders did when they took incredibly less value to move down from #3 to #12 last year.

 

[MerlinJones]

I don't see how Clowney is more risky than another. He is really less risk since he's BPA of the draft class. Every player has flaws. Flaws are the risk value. He has less flaws.

Flaws in a players game you can potentially fix.

Flaws in his personality, well that's a little trickier.

 

[Alan]

Looking at this from a distance, you're asking me to believe that both teams used their extremely valuable pick simply to save a little money instead of getting an elite player or fill one of their grocery list of holes?

To answer your question as you phrased it would require me to buy into your contention that there weren't better players available. I don't buy that. Although I must say that I didn't do much research on players I didn't think we'd want to draft.

Look at the needs for these two teams according to SB Nation.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/23/4253174/2013-nfl-draft-team-needs-kansas-city-chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Top three needs

Inside linebacker - Derrick Johnson is a fine inside linebacker, but the Chiefs need another one to help stop opposing runers.

Defensive line - The Chiefs lost Glenn Dorsey, but managed to hang onto Tyson Jacksonat a reduced rate. Another defensive end capable of generating pressure is a must.Dontari Poe did well against the run last year, but brought next to nothing in the way of penetration.

Offensive tackle - Kansas City cut Eric Winston, last year's starting right tackle, and seems to be on the verge of trading left tackle Brandon Albert. Even if Albert isn't dealt, he's likely to go after the season. They need someone to keep Smith on his feet.

Ideal pick: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

All three of these players were available for the Chiefs but they filled one of their needs and RT was a huge need:
Sheldon Richardson DT drafted #13
Star Lotulelei DT drafted #14
Jarvis Jones LB drafted #17

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-dr...013-nfl-draft-team-needs-jacksonville-jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Top three needs
Pass rusher - The Jaguars ranked last in the league with only 20 sacks last year. For years, the team has attempted to bolster the pass rush, drafting Derrick Harvey in 2008, signing Aaron Kampman in free agency back in 2010, and most recently signing Jason Babin after he was waived by the Eagles. While Babin and last year's second-round pickAndre Branch provide some hope, the team can't afford to pass on some of the elite talent available at the position towards the top of this draft.

Cornerback - After letting Rashean Mathis and Derrick Cox walk in free agency, the Jaguars have a depleted cornerback depth chart. While the team isn't likely to draft the position with the No. 2 pick, cornerback depth will likely be a priority on days two and three.

Quarterback - With Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne as the only two quarterbacks on the roster, Jacksonville has to add a signal caller at some point on draft weekend. Thus far, neither Gabbert or Henne has inspired a ton of hope, so the Jaguars could look to address quarterback sooner rather than later.

Ideal pick- Dion Jordan, DE/LB, Oregon or Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

All five of these players were available for the Jags that could have been used to fill huge needs:
Dee Milliner CB drafted #9
D. J. Hayden CB drafted #12
Dion Jordan DE drafted #3
Ezekiel Ansah DE drafted #5
Barkevious Mingo DE drafted #6

On the other hand, many pundits don't think the were many elite players not at OT available in the draft but I've yet to hear that from a GM. So you have that going for you but I still think you're projecting your own evaluations of players into your viewpoint here.

 

[Yamahopper]

Flaws in a players game you can potentially fix.

Flaws in his personality, well that's a little trickier.

A good coach can adjust attitude but you can't coach measurables. The Ivy league is full of high character, smart. 100% effort guys....Just to bad they can't even get a camp invite cause their measurables suck.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Looking at this from a distance, you're asking me to believe that both teams used their extremely valuable pick simply to save a little money instead of getting an elite player or fill one of their grocery list of holes?

To answer your question as you phrased it would require me to buy into your contention that there weren't better players available. I don't buy that. Although I must say that I didn't do much research on players I didn't think we'd want to draft.

Look at the needs for these two teams according to SB Nation.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/23/4253174/2013-nfl-draft-team-needs-kansas-city-chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Top three needs

Inside linebacker - Derrick Johnson is a fine inside linebacker, but the Chiefs need another one to help stop opposing runers.

Defensive line - The Chiefs lost Glenn Dorsey, but managed to hang onto Tyson Jacksonat a reduced rate. Another defensive end capable of generating pressure is a must.Dontari Poe did well against the run last year, but brought next to nothing in the way of penetration.

Offensive tackle - Kansas City cut Eric Winston, last year's starting right tackle, and seems to be on the verge of trading left tackle Brandon Albert. Even if Albert isn't dealt, he's likely to go after the season. They need someone to keep Smith on his feet.

Ideal pick: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

All three of these players were available for the Chiefs but they filled one of their needs and RT was a huge need:
Sheldon Richardson DT drafted #13
Star Lotulelei DT drafted #14
Jarvis Jones LB drafted #17

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-dr...013-nfl-draft-team-needs-jacksonville-jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Top three needs
Pass rusher - The Jaguars ranked last in the league with only 20 sacks last year. For years, the team has attempted to bolster the pass rush, drafting Derrick Harvey in 2008, signing Aaron Kampman in free agency back in 2010, and most recently signing Jason Babin after he was waived by the Eagles. While Babin and last year's second-round pickAndre Branch provide some hope, the team can't afford to pass on some of the elite talent available at the position towards the top of this draft.

Cornerback - After letting Rashean Mathis and Derrick Cox walk in free agency, the Jaguars have a depleted cornerback depth chart. While the team isn't likely to draft the position with the No. 2 pick, cornerback depth will likely be a priority on days two and three.

Quarterback - With Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne as the only two quarterbacks on the roster, Jacksonville has to add a signal caller at some point on draft weekend. Thus far, neither Gabbert or Henne has inspired a ton of hope, so the Jaguars could look to address quarterback sooner rather than later.

Ideal pick- Dion Jordan, DE/LB, Oregon or Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

All five of these players were available for the Jags that could have been used to fill huge needs:
Dee Milliner CB drafted #9
D. J. Hayden CB drafted #12
Dion Jordan DE drafted #3
Ezekiel Ansah DE drafted #5
Barkevious Mingo DE drafted #6

On the other hand, many pundits don't think the were many elite players not at OT available in the draft but I've yet to hear that from a GM. So you have that going for you but I still think you're projecting your own evaluations of players into your viewpoint here.

So it looks like we are again coming from two different perspectives as I don't focus solely on the Rams and their potential targets as I typically do loads of research on most of the players and teams each year in order to complete yearly 32 team mock drafts (Some of which go up to 3 rounds).

And I can't say that I've read much of SB Nation and their bloggers who seem to be basically fans like us with a blog forum. But, I don't think a team (Chiefs) decided to fill a huge need at RT by using the #1 overall selection on LT. And I do recall the Brandon Albert trade rumors being due to the way the draft was stacked last year. Of course, that was the take of many of the former and present NFL personnel types I read and heard on various forums (especially Sirius NFL Radio) and fans on Chiefs boards last year where I got most of the ammo for my viewpoint.

Same goes for the Jaguars who had been looking for a QB and pass rusher for years now (Pass rusher even longer). Doubtful the new coaching staff simply decided to ignore that need and select a LT when they already had an above average LT already on the roster. Again, not just my viewpoint but the same as listed above (only substitute Chiefs boards for Jaguar boards).