What To Do At 2? Rams Playing Wait-and-see With Texans

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http://www.stltoday.com/sports/foot...cle_3972dd56-87cf-5cc5-8abd-a4478ab0d61d.html

What to do at 2? Rams playing wait-and-see with Texans
By Jim Thomas jthomas@post-dispatch.com 314-340-8197

INDIANAPOLIS • Jeff Fisher has spent a lot of time lately with Houston general manager Rick Smith because they’re members of the NFL’s competition committee.

Pretty convenient since the Texans have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and the Rams sit at No. 2. So who are the Texans taking?

“I spent the last three days in the same meeting room with Rick Smith,” Fisher said Friday, referring to competition committee meetings held here in conjunction with the NFL Scouting Combine. “I am going to spend another week with him in a couple weeks. Then I’m going to give myself another good solid week to find out what they are gonna do.”

Catch him at the right moment?

“Weak moment, yeah,” Fisher joked. “He’s not talking to me.”

As Rams general manager Les Snead puts it, Houston controls the draft. Do the Texans take a quarterback? Do they take South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and pair him with J.J. Watt? Do they trade down to pick up extra draft picks?

None of the other dominoes start falling until Houston makes its pick.

“That’s the interesting thing about being (No.) 2,” Snead said. “I have mentioned I’m an only child, and selfish and greedy, so I wish I was in the driver’s seat. Then I wouldn’t have to sit and react.”

Instead, the Rams are riding shotgun waiting to see where Houston takes this draft.

“Shotgun is worse,” Snead joked. “Maybe it’s better not even being in the car.”

Two years ago at the combine, when the Rams also had the No. 2 overall pick, things were more clearly defined.

“This is gonna be a little bit different than the last one,” Snead said. “When we went out to Indy (in 2012), it seemed like everyone knew who pick 1 was gonna be and probably what pick 2 was gonna be.”

In other words, Stanford’s Andrew Luck at No. 1 overall by Indianapolis. And Baylor’s Robert Griffin III at No. 2, assuming the Rams could find a trade partner. With the knowledge that the Colts almost certainly were going to take Luck at No. 1, the Rams could start working on a trade immediately. Little more than two weeks after leaving the combine, the Rams agreed to a trade with Washington for RGIII.

It doesn’t look like things will develop that rapidly this time.

“I’m not sure we’re gonna leave Indy and know who pick (No.) 1’s gonna be,’’ Snead said. “If you all know — let me know.”

Smith of the Texans provided no clues at his combine media session. For example, when asked how the top three QBs in this draft compared to the top ones in recent drafts, Smith replied: “I don’t really talk publicly. I don’t think it does any real good for me to let anybody know how I feel about (them).”

So there. But when push comes to shove, the Texans probably take a quarterback though it remains uncertain if that QB will be Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel, Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, or Central Florida’s Blake Bortles.

The Texans are under some local pressure to select Manziel, who tore up the SEC for two years and is a Texas native. But don’t underestimate Bortles. Ultimately, new Houston coach Bill O’Brien will make the decision.

As head coach at Penn State last season, O’Brien saw Bortles first-hand when Central Florida defeated the Nittany Lions. In addition, one of O’Brien’s mentors was current Central Florida coach George O’Leary. That relationship could factor into the decision because O’Leary knows Bortles better than anyone.

If the Texans indeed take a quarterback at No. 1 overall, that could leave quarterback-needy Jacksonville (at No. 3) and Cleveland (No. 4) fighting to trade up to the Rams to get the next QB. At No. 3 or No. 4, after a trade-down, the Rams could conceivably have their pick of Clowney, Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, or any of the top three offensive tackles — Texas A&M’s Jake Matthews, Auburn’s Greg Robinson, and Michigan’s Taylor Leewan.

(Clowney, by the way, confirmed a Friday report that a Rams delegation was recently in South Carolina gathering information on him.)

So if not endless, the possibilities are at least numerous for the Rams right now.

“Honestly, I have no idea what we’re going to do,” Fisher said. “You have to be prepared to adjust, so it makes no sense to throw smokescreens and stuff like that. We can pick there (at No. 2), we can trade down or we can trade up. Those are our options. We have got to evaluate the personnel and go out and get it right.”

Trading up obviously is the least likely of those options. Besides, as Fisher noted, Smith isn’t talking.
 

mr.stlouis

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Well, all this did was confirm what we already knew. So I guess that's a good thing...
 

BonifayRam

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Just how loyal are Texans to Texan's sons:D? Johnny played College just a little over an hour northwest of Houston :).Born & played HS FB in that general Houston outer area :X3:. Have the Texans ever had a dynamic QB like Johnny period :whistle:? I just do not see the Texans passing on either Bortles or Manziel even if they go trade for Mallett from the Pats.
 

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McClain sounds pretty sure of this.

The only issue I see is how far down with Snead trade with the #2. I hope Peter King is wrong about Snead wanting to trade down to #15. That's about the dumbest thing he can do.
 

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McClain sounds pretty sure of this.

The only issue I see is how far down with Snead trade with the #2. I hope Peter King is wrong about Snead wanting to trade down to #15. That's about the dumbest thing he can do.
Maybe from 13 to 15. Otherwise, I agree with you!
 

BigRamFan

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Softli said today he would stick and pick at #2, and trade down from #13. That makes sense to me.
I am not opposed to trading down from 13 if we get the right offer. So long as we remain in the first round there still should be plenty of available talent. However, I don't see value at #2 other than Clowney and I have mixed emotions on selecting him at all. Hopefully we can move that pick but remain in the top 8. I would hate to miss out on one of the "blue chippers" at the top of this draft class.
 

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I am not opposed to trading down from 13 if we get the right offer. So long as we remain in the first round there still should be plenty of available talent. However, I don't see value at #2 other than Clowney and I have mixed emotions on selecting him at all. Hopefully we can move that pick but remain in the top 8. I would hate to miss out on one of the "blue chippers" at the top of this draft class.

It all hinges on how much they want Watkins. If he is their guy then they can't move down too far. He could easily be gone in the top 5. So, a trade with Atlanta could very well cost them their guy, assuming Watkins is their guy. And to me there is a bigger gap between Watkins and the next best WR than their is between the best OT and next best OT.

Now, if they aren't especially in love with Watkins and they have a grouping of players that they like at the top, then a trade down with Atlanta or even a bit further works just fine.

But based on past history they usually target a player and assess where he should be slotted. So let's say they target Watkins and they slot him in the top 4 or 5. They may try to get a trade down with Cleveland. If they can't then they may just stick at #2 and take him rather than trade down to 6 or below.

So I don't like to get caught up in the mindset that Watkins isn't the best value at #2. If his value is at #4 and you can't get there, you can only get lower, then you take him at #2 if he is your guy.
 

BigRamFan

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It all hinges on how much they want Watkins. If he is their guy then they can't move down too far. He could easily be gone in the top 5. So, a trade with Atlanta could very well cost them their guy, assuming Watkins is their guy. And to me there is a bigger gap between Watkins and the next best WR than their is between the best OT and next best OT.

Now, if they aren't especially in love with Watkins and they have a grouping of players that they like at the top, then a trade down with Atlanta or even a bit further works just fine.

But based on past history they usually target a player and assess where he should be slotted. So let's say they target Watkins and they slot him in the top 4 or 5. They may try to get a trade down with Cleveland. If they can't then they may just stick at #2 and take him rather than trade down to 6 or below.

So I don't like to get caught up in the mindset that Watkins isn't the best value at #2. If his value is at #4 and you can't get there, you can only get lower, then you take him at #2 if he is your guy.
I agree 100% with you logic. I just can't believe that Watkins is their guy. In my mind, at least, they just have to be targeting one of the top 2 OL and I believe at least one of them is still on the board at 8.
 

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Trade-down from #2 just does not look possible @ the moment. The Browns who is the only real team with large amounts of extra draft value in the back...will just play the odds that things will go their way.

1.1 Houston DE
1.2 St Louis OT
1.3 Jags -QB
1.4 Browns get the 2nd best QB
Or
1.1 Hou-DE
1.2 StL-WR
1.3 Jags QB
1.4 Browns get the third best QB
Or
1.1 Hou-QB
1.2 STL-DE
1.3.Jags-QB
1.4 Browns get the third best QB
Or
1.1 Hou-QB
1.2 STL-OT
1.3Jags-DE
1.4 Browns get 2nd best QB
 
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BigRamFan

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Trade-down from #2 just does not look possible @ the moment. The Browns who is the only real team with large amounts of extra draft value in the back...will just play the odds that things will go their way.

1.1 Houston DE
1.2 St Louis OT
1.3 Jags -QB
1.4 Browns get the second best QB
Or
1.1 Hou-DE
1.2 StL-WR
1.3 Jags QB
1.4 Browns get the second best QB
Or
1.1 Hou-QB
1.2 STL-DE
1.3.Jags-QB
1.4 Browns get the 2nd best QB

Or
1.1 Hou-QB
1.2 STL-OT
1.3Jags-DE
1.4 Browns get 2nd best QB
I think he bolded scenario is exactly why they need to trade up. In that scenario they get the 3rd QB but more importantly "their" guy may be gone. They've been down the wait for a QB road before and look where that got them.
 

BonifayRam

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I think he bolded scenario is exactly why they need to trade up. In that scenario they get the 3rd QB but more importantly "their" guy may be gone. They've been down the wait for a QB road before and look where that got them.

That's could be true but the warm weather Jags may be more inclined to go with Bridgewater who they could plug in day one. Leaving Brown's fat & happy with either Bortles or Manziel... I think the Browns will play the Rams as not trading down with any other team. Browns will offer a very lowball bid to move up thus causing Snead's hair to curl the wrong way.

I hope you are right but right now No I do not see any wisdom oozing out from the Browns Org myself. They will play the odds of either getting the 2nd best QB or the 3rd best its about 50/50 on that. I try to learn from history & with the Browns that History in not the smartest.
 

max

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I think he bolded scenario is exactly why they need to trade up. In that scenario they get the 3rd QB but more importantly "their" guy may be gone. They've been down the wait for a QB road before and look where that got them.

Also, the local beat reporter from Houston says strongly that the Texans are taking a QB at #1. So it's gotta be a likely scenario.

I highly doubt the Rams stick at #2 and take Clowney. If they get stuck at #2, which I doubt, they will take an OT or Watkins.

I wonder how you can handicap the odds of the Rams trading partners.
Cleveland
Atlanta
Minny
I think those are the most likely, but any team in the top 8 is a reasonable option.
 

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Texans
Jaguars
Browns
Raiders
Bills
Titans
Steelers
Ravens
Jets
Dolphins(ok maybe not Miami) :D

Lots of AFC teams who wouldn't mind doing business with an NFC team like us. Throw in the relationship with Atlanta and i'm pretty confident in Snead being able to maneuver around the top half of the first rd.
 

BonifayRam

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It all hinges on how much they want Watkins. If he is their guy then they can't move down too far. He could easily be gone in the top 5. So, a trade with Atlanta could very well cost them their guy, assuming Watkins is their guy. And to me there is a bigger gap between Watkins and the next best WR than their is between the best OT and next best OT.

Now, if they aren't especially in love with Watkins and they have a grouping of players that they like at the top, then a trade down with Atlanta or even a bit further works just fine.

But based on past history they usually target a player and assess where he should be slotted. So let's say they target Watkins and they slot him in the top 4 or 5. They may try to get a trade down with Cleveland. If they can't then they may just stick at #2 and take him rather than trade down to 6 or below.

So I don't like to get caught up in the mindset that Watkins isn't the best value at #2. If his value is at #4 and you can't get there, you can only get lower, then you take him at #2 if he is your guy.

Yep if WR Watkins is their #1 target a trade with Atlanta is out period. If 1.1 goes QB then traded 1.2 goes DE to ATL.,then 1.3 goes for 2nd QB then 1.4 goes for 3rd QB then Oakland @ 1.5 would almost certainly goes WR Watkins I sure not not see LB'er Mack going off ahead of Watkins with Oakland. Rams there @ 1.6 would be looking @ 3 OT's one LB'er.

A trade with Atlanta would require some serious traded draft value of over 1000 pts. Not sure Atlanta can get close to that unless Snead gets goofy & flush down a good chunk of that RG3 trade value capital down into the sewer why would Snead do that?
 
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Ram_of_Old

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I completely support Snead and Fisher an have total confidence in them. The will get the most out of this draft. It is refreshing that, after so many years of questionable front office moves, this organization is making solid decisions and building a team that will last.
 

max

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Yep if WR Watkins is their #1 target a trade with Atlanta is out period. If 1.1 goes QB then traded 1.2 goes DE to ATL.,then 1.3 goes for 2nd QB then 1.4 goes for 3rd QB then Oakland @ 1.5 would almost certainly goes WR Watkins I sure not not see LB'er Mack going off ahead of Watkins with Oakland. Rams there @ 1.6 would be looking @ 3 OT's one LB'er.

A trade with Atlanta would require some serious traded draft value of over 1000 pts. Not sure Atlanta can get close to that unless Snead gets goofy & flush down a good chunk of that RG3 trade value capital down into the sewer why would Snead do that?

I can see Snead accepting less than the full value of the trade chart to move to #6. This is based on the high probability that a guy they want will be available #6, assuming they are equally happy with Watkins, Robinson or Matthews.

If Houston goes QB as those close to the team say, then a trade with Atlanta for Clowney will keep the 2 OTs and Watkins on the board 4 picks to go. All the Rams need is for a 2nd QB or another player like Mack to go in the 3, 4, or 5 spot and they are assured of getting Robinson, Matthews, or Watkins. The only way the Rams get burnt is if no QBs are drafted by Jax, Cleveland, or Oak AND no other player like Mack gets picked in the top 5 either.

And keep in mind that Khan already came out and said they are taking a QB.

A likely worst case scenario...
1. QB
2. Clowney
3. QB
4. Watkins
5. Robinson
6. Matthews