What do the Redskins do with Kirk Cousins?

[drasconis]

Consider this....would you feel the same if it was Mannion 2 yrs from now?

Say he doesn't start the beginning of next season, but midway through the year he gets thrown in there because either Keenum or Foles is not working out/injured...he puts up OK number, enough to earn the starting job in 2017. In 2017 he puts up 25+ TDs and throws under 13 INT, racks up 4000+yrds with the #1 receiver missing a number of games, and has a rating of over 95. The rams make the playoffs finally. Would you be willing to walk away from him to save the money, or would you say the rams finally found a QB?

Is your issue that it is Cousins (or Osweiler) and you don't believe in him or think this year was a fluke? Do you think he has peaked and while the peak is nice (lets be honest Rams fans would love those stats) you think they are settling for the next Dalton (just to choose a name that puts up stats but many do not believe in as an answer)? Do you not believe in paying a QB that much at all, or not paying that much unless they are clearly elite?

As a Rams fan you know what that search for a QB is like and how difficult it is to find a good one (not elite - just good).

My view is that Cousins is worth it, and is on the upswing...not a fan of Osweiler at this point, not enough data to show a trend. I would spend serious money on Cousins, but would not on Osweiler (I.e. i would give Cousins a decent contract with good guaranteed money or franchise him....I would be willing to Foles contract on Osweiler if I was the Broncos, more because otherwise you really left grasping for answers...any other team should pay less than that). To be clear I think the conversation is VERY different regarding the two QBs.

 

[jrry32]

If there's one problem I've learned that you can't hide in the NFL, it's a QB problem. I'll pay what I have to pay for a legitimate starting QB if I'm not going to be able to get one in the draft. Keenum isn't a legitimate starting QB imo. I'll pay Cousins market value.

Osweiler is a different story. Not sold on him as a legitimate starting QB.


I think he would. He put up 34 TDs to 14 TOs and led the league in completion percentage. Granted, his performance wasn't as dominant as the numbers seem. Also conceding that the Redskins have a far more talented offense. But if he continues to play like he did in 2015 (average to above average QB), he'd definitely offer us that sort of value over Keenum.

With even a 2015 Cousins level QB, we're a very legitimate contender. Look at the Broncos. We have ourselves a great defense and a strong rushing attack. A legitimate QB under center makes this a 10+ win team and gives us a shot at winning in the playoffs. That's worth $17 million to me.

But, at the same time, I'd rather go all in on a QB in the Draft. Because they're cost controlled for a few years and offer more upside.

I'm not convinced Cousins is better than Fitzpatrick or Bradford and I don't think they'll cost $19.75M. Whether Cousins has peaked or is a fluke isn't the issue. The issue is whether he's the best bang for your buck.

Bradford is asking for $25 million a year (he won't get it) and there are rumors that the Eagles might franchise him. He won't come cheap. Fitzpatrick has no reason to leave the Jets and also won't come cheap.

Bang for your buck is meaningless when you don't have another option. Odds are that Fitzpatrick and Bradford don't hit the market. If they do, we have no idea how much they cost. But I doubt you get too much of a discount on either. And there's no indication that Fitzpatrick would choose another team over a competitive offer from the Jets.

If Bradford and Fitzpatrick aren't options...who is left? You can take risks but there's nothing proven left.

That's from Washington's POV. From the Rams POV, I want nothing to do with the QB FA market unless it's Chase Daniel. Take our QB in the draft.

 

[dieterbrock]

Consider this....would you feel the same if it was Mannion 2 yrs from now?

Say he doesn't start the beginning of next season, but midway through the year he gets thrown in there because either Keenum or Foles is not working out/injured...he puts up OK number, enough to earn the starting job in 2017. In 2017 he puts up 25+ TDs and throws under 13 INT, racks up 4000+yrds with the #1 receiver missing a number of games, and has a rating of over 95. The rams make the playoffs finally. Would you be willing to walk away from him to save the money, or would you say the rams finally found a QB?

Is your issue that it is Cousins (or Osweiler) and you don't believe in him or think this year was a fluke? Do you think he has peaked and while the peak is nice (lets be honest Rams fans would love those stats) you think they are settling for the next Dalton (just to choose a name that puts up stats but many do not believe in as an answer)? Do you not believe in paying a QB that much at all, or not paying that much unless they are clearly elite?

As a Rams fan you know what that search for a QB is like and how difficult it is to find a good one (not elite - just good).

My view is that Cousins is worth it, and is on the upswing...not a fan of Osweiler at this point, not enough data to show a trend. I would spend serious money on Cousins, but would not on Osweiler (I.e. i would give Cousins a decent contract with good guaranteed money or franchise him....I would be willing to Foles contract on Osweiler if I was the Broncos, more because otherwise you really left grasping for answers...any other team should pay less than that). To be clear I think the conversation is VERY different regarding the two QBs.

I agree with everything here. Great post.
On Cousins, he did also play great as a rookie when his number was called. He's shown signs of being starter even prior to this past season.

 

[drasconis]

I understand you are doing a cost benefit analysis - sort of what CLE is planning on doing. I am not sure your market values are realistic though or have truly considered the replacement costs. For example I think that Donald is closer to $20+mil player in a contract year (look what Suh got) so at 20 to 6 would you still go with Donald? (I would but that is me)

Not sure where you get the 2.75mil for Keenum....but what if he costs 5mil? Cousins may or may not be better than Fitz or Bradford, but the counter is he is much younger than Fitz and is on the upswing (Fitz is a known quantity, there is no "potential" upside there), Bradford has a major injury history and thus is much riskier to sign. I am not sure Cousins gets 19.75 mil a year in a multi-year deal (per yr), though not sure with the cap going up this year and the poor FA market. If you are looking at the cost of tagging him, well that option is a premium option offered teams, it gives them leverage in negotiations (or eliminates them) and provides 1 more year of evaluation - the teams pays extra for these benefits.

The other issue is while you have extra money to spend going the cheaper route there is no guarantee you can find the 17 mil value in other players to actually make up the ground. Either the market may be barren, you may be beat out in trying to get the players you want instead. For instance say Alshon Jeffery did hit the market -you decide that the better is Keenum and Alshon so you let Cousins walk to sign these two, you get Keenum but get outbid on Alshon now what, you end up with a guy like Britt cause that is what is left on the market...

 

[Amitar]

Cousin's was 1st in pass completions %, 10th in yards at 4,166, 29 TD 11 INT, and 5th in QB rating.
If they want to win they sign him or put themselves in the same boat as the Rams and other less then .500 teams, and with those stats why would you even think about it.

 

[drasconis]

I am not sure if I am not understanding your hypotheticals or if you are not understanding my responses.

Regarding Donald v Brockers you talked about if they were both in their final contract year - A hypothetical that doesn't line up with your above math which is if the Rams renegotiated with him now (when his contract is not up), your bouncing aorund is kind of confusing. I thought you were stating how much you would give each as free agents (since you said if they were in their final contract year).

As for Cousins/Keenum you are once again mixing hypotheticals....what redskins should do what rams should do etc...it is confusing.

No one is saying Cousins will get a 1 year 19mil deal in free agency....he would get more than $19 mil in guaranteed money though. The Redskins have two real choices either Franchise tag him or give him a multiyear deal. There is no reason for Cousins to accept a multi-year deal that doesn't give him as much guaranteed money as the tag (say 3yrs $50mil $20 guaranteed), so he isn't making 19 a year, but he gets the money would make otherwise. Yes they could tag him and yes that pays for his 2016 production, but it also has a benefit (that freedom has some value, how much that is is debatable) of letting them evaluate further to see if they want to commit to him long term.

The skins can't use the RFA on Keenum any more than the Rams can use the tag on Cousins. Are you saying you would not trade them straight up (thus rams could tag Cousins and Skins Keenum), assuming neither would sign along term deal and you would have to pay them tag cost?

I am not sure anyone expects Cousins to get 19mil a year unless he is tagged, if he signs a deal with the skins or others though he will get at least 19mil Guaranteed in a multi-year deal (for example above). You think that he is a 11-15 value range, and that may be what he is worth - but as a FA he will likely make much more. The market is too thin, there are too many teams that need a QB, as the saying goes it only takes one of 32 for him to get more. For example look at Cook here. Someone will give him more than that, now that may be a mistake but it will likely happen.

 

[jrry32]

You have to remember the human element here too. You're not going to approach Donald with an insulting offer.

 

[Prime Time]

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2016/2...de-redskins-kirk-cousins-2016-nfl-free-agency

NFL Network’s Charley Casserly Has a Wild Trade Idea For the Los Angeles Rams
By Brandon Bate @NoPlanB_ on Feb 23, 2016

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

NFL Network’s Charley Casserly has a wild idea for the Los Angeles Rams to make this offseason...

Charley Casserly - NFL Network’s analyst for the shows "NFL’s Total Access" and "Path to the Draft" - spent over two decades in the NFL as general manager and front office executive; much of which came while serving various roles with the Washington Redskins between 1977-1999. The Redskins would go to four Super Bowls during his tenure there, winning three. Following the ’99 season, where he was fired by Skins’ GM Dan Snyder, Casserly headed to Houston to serve in the same role for the Texans [from 2000-2005].

As it is for many GM’s, Casserly had his hits...and his misses. He selected players like 3x Pro Bowl running back/return specialist Brian Mitchell. He’d also draft now Hall-of-Famer Champ Bailey. In Houston, he took Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.

He also drafted Heath Shuler third overall in the 1994 draft. Shuler, to this day, is known as one of the biggest draft busts of all time. You can’t win ‘em all.

Current day, Casserly, as aforementioned, spends his time writing for, and appearing on, NFL Network. On Monday - along with Willie McGinest, Jeffri Chadiha, Eric Davis, and Gil Brandt - the five former players/execs identified a few teams who had more pressing matters than simply waiting for what lies ahead in free agency or the draft.

And it appears that Charley Casserly has another bust, not boom, idea, specifically for the Los Angeles Rams...

Still gonna take some getting used to writing that full team name again...

Ok, Charlie, we’re live. Give us the good stuff.

The Rams have a playoff-caliber defense and a Pro Bowl RB, but they desperately need a QB. Season-ticket applications are flying in right now, but that will not last if they don't win. Mediocrity will not sell in L.A. They need to get a QB, perhaps in a bold, aggressive move like trading two No. 1s for Kirk Cousins if the Redskins franchise him.

Hold up...

Whoa now. Let’s not get carried away here.

Cousins is probably the most coveted of the QB’s in the 2016 free agency crop. But that’s not saying much. If he does hit the market, which still seems unlikely, his top "competition" amongst FA quarterbacks will be Sam Bradford, and Redskins’ scout team safety Robert Griffin III.

Cousins did, however, put together a solid campaign last season. He finished the year with 4,166 yards passing [10th], 29 TD’s [12th] to 11 INT’s, and a 101.6 rating [6th].

The reality of the situation, despite the Redskins apparent hesitancy to sign Cousins to a long-term deal, is that the QB holds the cards. The Redskins don’t have a viable option at backup, and it would be unwise to assume they’d find production elsewhere -- via free agency or the draft. Worst case scenario, the Redskins slap him with the franchise tag, and they’ve got him locked up for at least another year.

There’s only one thing I could imagine would get Snyder and Redskins contemplating letting Cousins walk, and that’s Casserly’s idea...coughing up two first round picks.

I’m not sure whether it was the sheer shock of having to type "Los Angeles Rams" or simply the fact that he has a rooting interest for an organization he spent 20+ years with, but mortgaging your future by giving up two first round picks seems much more a Redskins-type move than it does a Rams one. *zing*

 

[LesBaker]

You're right - most definitely. Given the options - that is what I would try to do. At some point, I think it is going to head that way but I also think the CBA has to be changed to somehow allow for that.

I was a little taken aback that when they did the new CBA that max contracts (like in the NBA) weren't a part of it. It's getting to the point where they may have to add a clause like that, even if it allows the current team to pay a little more than another team like the NBA rule.

Especially with QB contracts because they've started to get out of control and I'd bet within a few years we see a contract that is worth 30MIL a year.

 

[fearsomefour]

If there's one problem I've learned that you can't hide in the NFL, it's a QB problem. I'll pay what I have to pay for a legitimate starting QB if I'm not going to be able to get one in the draft. Keenum isn't a legitimate starting QB imo. I'll pay Cousins market value.

Osweiler is a different story. Not sold on him as a legitimate starting QB.



I think he would. He put up 34 TDs to 14 TOs and led the league in completion percentage. Granted, his performance wasn't as dominant as the numbers seem. Also conceding that the Redskins have a far more talented offense. But if he continues to play like he did in 2015 (average to above average QB), he'd definitely offer us that sort of value over Keenum.

With even a 2015 Cousins level QB, we're a very legitimate contender. Look at the Broncos. We have ourselves a great defense and a strong rushing attack. A legitimate QB under center makes this a 10+ win team and gives us a shot at winning in the playoffs. That's worth $17 million to me.

But, at the same time, I'd rather go all in on a QB in the Draft. Because they're cost controlled for a few years and offer more upside.



Bradford is asking for $25 million a year (he won't get it) and there are rumors that the Eagles might franchise him. He won't come cheap. Fitzpatrick has no reason to leave the Jets and also won't come cheap.

Bang for your buck is meaningless when you don't have another option. Odds are that Fitzpatrick and Bradford don't hit the market. If they do, we have no idea how much they cost. But I doubt you get too much of a discount on either. And there's no indication that Fitzpatrick would choose another team over a competitive offer from the Jets.

If Bradford and Fitzpatrick aren't options...who is left? You can take risks but there's nothing proven left.

That's from Washington's POV. From the Rams POV, I want nothing to do with the QB FA market unless it's Chase Daniel. Take our QB in the draft.

I think Fitzpatrick will get $11M a year or so. He is older, which doesn't help his cause. Bradford asking $25M is sort of crazy and he won't get that.
The problem is QBs live in a have/have not market. There is not a lot of middle ground. A guy like Osweiler who has shown some potential, but, had as many subpar games as good games can demand a mid to high teens per year. That is just crazy, but, it is the state of things.
I think Cousin will want a 4 to 5 year deal in the range of $20M per. Nothing can hold a team back like not have a QB. The thing is, guys like this, Cousins, Osweiler, Fitzpatrick....I think these can all be solid to good QBs. There are not guys (at least not that we have seen yet with Cousins or Osweiler) that can carry teams. Is there more value in a C- QB at $3M a year or a B grade QB at $16M a year? Hard for me to say.

 

[Merlin]

If I'm the Skins in that scenario I would take those 2 first round picks and use them to move up to 1 overall and take Goff. They would then have a young and cost controlled QB in place of Cousins under a good offensive head coach.

Of course if I'm the Rams I offer those two first round picks and a second rounder to move up to 1 and get Goff for myself...

 

[Mackeyser]

If there's one problem I've learned that you can't hide in the NFL, it's a QB problem. I'll pay what I have to pay for a legitimate starting QB if I'm not going to be able to get one in the draft. Keenum isn't a legitimate starting QB imo. I'll pay Cousins market value.

Osweiler is a different story. Not sold on him as a legitimate starting QB.



I think he would. He put up 34 TDs to 14 TOs and led the league in completion percentage. Granted, his performance wasn't as dominant as the numbers seem. Also conceding that the Redskins have a far more talented offense. But if he continues to play like he did in 2015 (average to above average QB), he'd definitely offer us that sort of value over Keenum.

With even a 2015 Cousins level QB, we're a very legitimate contender. Look at the Broncos. We have ourselves a great defense and a strong rushing attack. A legitimate QB under center makes this a 10+ win team and gives us a shot at winning in the playoffs. That's worth $17 million to me.

But, at the same time, I'd rather go all in on a QB in the Draft. Because they're cost controlled for a few years and offer more upside.



Bradford is asking for $25 million a year (he won't get it) and there are rumors that the Eagles might franchise him. He won't come cheap. Fitzpatrick has no reason to leave the Jets and also won't come cheap.

Bang for your buck is meaningless when you don't have another option. Odds are that Fitzpatrick and Bradford don't hit the market. If they do, we have no idea how much they cost. But I doubt you get too much of a discount on either. And there's no indication that Fitzpatrick would choose another team over a competitive offer from the Jets.

If Bradford and Fitzpatrick aren't options...who is left? You can take risks but there's nothing proven left.

That's from Washington's POV. From the Rams POV, I want nothing to do with the QB FA market unless it's Chase Daniel. Take our QB in the draft.

I don't disagree with any of that. What does Snead do if Daniels is unavailable and the QBs go early or the teams looking to trade down want extortionist prices to do it knowing its for a QB?

So if Daniels and the top 3 aren't there (and that's a very real possibility), what then???

 

[jrry32]

I don't disagree with any of that. What does Snead do if Daniels is unavailable and the QBs go early or the teams looking to trade down want extortionist prices to do it knowing its for a QB?

So if Daniels and the top 3 aren't there (and that's a very real possibility), what then???

You take Connor Cook. Either at #15 or trade up from our 2nd. But Snead only has himself to blame if he chooses not to move up for the QBs and they go before our pick.