Vinny B: Which under 30 Ram will be cut?

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den-the-coach

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It’s going to be tough. I wouldn’t trade Woods. He’s the best and toughest WR they have

[theathletic.com]

Which under-30 players might the Rams have to drop for salary-cap purposes?

By Vinny Bonsignore and Rich Hammond May 31, 2019
These are good times for the Rams, who have stability and a talented roster that figures to put them in Super Bowl contention again in 2019. But every team has issues. So each week, Vinny Bonsignore and Rich Hammond will discuss and debate the Rams’ biggest current questions. Here are the topics to date.

The clock is ticking. Jared Goff is going to need a new contract. The Rams delayed the inevitable in April when they picked up the fifth-year option on Goff’s rookie deal, for the 2020 season, and technically they could stall further by franchise-tagging Goff for a year or two. Eventually, though, ink must hit paper.

Given his current trajectory as one of the NFL’s top under-30 quarterbacks, Goff figures to join the nine current quarterbacks who earn an average salary of $25 million or more. That’s unless you’re one of the folks who thinks the Rams are going to let Goff walk away and draft his replacement, but Vinny certainly doesn’t think that’s going to happen.

The Rams’ cap crunch actually starts in 2020, when Goff’s option kicks in and ups his salary to $22 million, a raise of almost $14 million. The cap figures of stars such as Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley also jump. (And for those who might wonder, Gurley’s contract includes a ton of dead-cap money through 2021.)

The Rams will be able to mitigate some of that with the (likely) retirement of Andrew Whitworth, who has a cap hit of $16.7 million this season. Other veterans (Aqib Talib, Eric Weddle, etc.) also are unlikely to stay for the long term, and the salary cap should continue to rise. But according to OverTheCap.com, the Rams already have almost $147.5 million committed to players in 2020, with several potential holes to fill.

Tough decisions are ahead in the next year or two, so here’s the question: Which three players under age 30 are most likely not to be part of the long-term plans?

Rich Hammond
Dante Fowler: Let’s start with the good news. I think it’s possible the Rams could retain starters such as Michael Brockers (undervalued by playing with Aaron Donald), Cory Littleton (name not big enough to command big money) and Nickell Robey-Coleman (hometown discount), and I consider it imperative that they re-sign budding young stars such as John Johnson and Cooper Kupp. That narrows the options.

Fowler, quite possibly, is going to play his way out of L.A. He did the smart thing by re-signing with the Rams in March on a one-year deal that could earn him as much as $14 million. He played well in spurts last season and is a prime breakout candidate in 2019 in his first full year in the Rams’ system. A good season will earn him a big multi-year contract, and the Rams won’t be able to afford him.

Robert Woods: This one is going to cause the most teeth-gnashing, but it might have to happen. Woods is under contract for 2021, with a cap hit of $9.1 million that season. By then, Brandin Cooks will have a whopping cap hit of $16.8 million and the Rams will have re-upped Kupp, whose deal ends after 2020.

Woods has been extraordinary for the Rams, and probably will never get the amount of credit he deserves for his role in transforming the offense in 2017. This would purely be a cap-casualty thing. Woods turns 28 before the start of the 2020 season, and a possible play here might be to trade him — while he still has strong value — and attempt to draft a younger, long-term replacement.

Marcus Peters: This week, Vinny wrote about how the Rams need to figure out what to do with Peters, whose contract expires after next season. I just don’t see a great fit here, certainly not for the type of money Peters might command on the free-agent market. I think the Rams also see it. This feels similar to Trumaine Johnson in 2017, when the Rams made noises that indicated they were interested in re-signing Johnson for the long term, but ultimately let him leave as a free agent (he signed with the Jets).

Peters had had his impressive moments, for sure, and last year when Talib was healthy and the Rams adjusted to more zone concepts, Peters did quite well. A top cornerback should be able to thrive in any scheme, though, and shouldn’t need a ton of help. Is that Peters right now? Let another team overpay him — as the Jets did with Johnson in 2018 — and move on. The problem is, the Rams could face a 2020 season without Peters or Talib. That’s a huge issue, one the Rams might have to spend to rectify. It just never ends, does it?

Vinny Bonsignore
Marcus Peters: Peters got a bad rap last year, I felt, for some of his struggles in the first half of the season. The calf injury he suffered against the Chargers in Week 3 would have sidelined a lesser player a couple of weeks. Instead, Peters was back within four days and didn’t miss a game. But he obviously was not 100 percent, and it showed in his play. The injury, coupled with the Rams taking part of the season to figure out the best way to use him, resulted in some shaky performances. But once he got healthy and the Rams began using him in more zone coverages — more to his strengths — he settled down and played well.

I suspect that will lead to a much stronger 2019 season — the last year of his rookie deal — which could push him beyond the Rams’ price-point comfort zone, given the looming new contract for Goff and other core-type players coming up for free agency. The Rams could utilize the franchise tag — at least for one season — to keep Peters in the fold in 2020. Beyond that, it could be a problem retaining him long term.

Rob Havenstein: The Rams did well last summer to lock up their 27-year-old right tackle through the 2022 season, and at a reasonable price. The good news is, he’ll be around the next four seasons. And given how he has emerged as a steady, dependable, above-average tackle, his presence creates a tremendous comfort level.

Barring injuries, there is no reason to think Havenstein won’t still be a formidable player at the conclusion of his contract. And at age 31 at that point, he likely would be a very attractive commodity on the open market. It’s still a ways away, but you can already envision the Rams having to make the difficult decision to let Havenstein leave as a free agent.

Austin Blythe: The Rams found great value off the scrap heap in 2017 when they scooped Blythe off waivers from the Indianapolis Colts. Under the tutelage of Rams offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, he surprisingly beat out Jamon Brown for the right guard position last year.

Blythe exceeded all expectations as a first-year starter on one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll take another major step forward in 2019. That’s the good news. On the other hand, a big year from Blythe could price him out of the Rams’ long-range plans, given all the pending free agents they’ll be dealing with next March, not to mention having to pay Goff at some point.
 

fearsomefour

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I wouldn't say Peters got a bad rap....he was terrible for big chunks of the season.
Hopefully he is used correctly and justifies his cost this year.
 

den-the-coach

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Definitely would pass on Peters, they can address CB in the draft or look for another CB with a lesser name in free agency that will be much better value, however, if you find somebody in the first round next year, then I would be fine with Long and that player as the starters.
 

snackdaddy

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I know they have to get creative to stay under the cap. But Woods is a bargain for what he's done to help the team win. I would hope they don't even consider it. They have a top trio of wide receivers they need to do everything they can to keep it intact. Even if you have to suffer some defensive losses. Teams win by scoring these days. Look at the final 4 teams last year. All were top scoring teams.
 

MadGoat

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I think 2020 will be tight, but the Rams will be able to squeeze everyone in without any unexpected cuts. Nobody knows what the salary cap will look like in 2021 after the CBA is renegotiated.

I'm guessing salary cap increases will be part of the players' strategy, so we may see unprecedented cap space for all teams at that point. Goff may be signing his extension at the best possible time for him.
 

OldSchool

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I think it's telling that Fowler was only signed for one year, IMO he's likely not here in 2020. Matthews is signed for 2 years and they have Obo and Ebukam who can provide a 3 man rotation there at OLB along with a few of the other young guys.

Peters definitely agree with others on he gets a bad rap for when he was hurt. He got healthy and was very good down the stretch and in the playoffs. I could see a 2020 situation like Fowler this year a one year deal and more draft capital spent on CB next year.

My man Brockers will likely have to sign a very cap friendly deal or he might be gone next year as well. I'd hate to see it happen but that's the nature of the business. Loved the pick and love the no nonsense work ethic he's given us. Same with Talib, how much does he want to sign for at 35? I'd bring him back no problem but the money matters going forward.

The rest I think are lower waged guys that won't move the needle much. Actually Higbee, who's 2019 base is peanuts, could be gone. What does he do this year and how much does McVay value his blocking and his steadiness. Thomas, Natson, Hatfield, Fox, Christian, Blythe (I think is gone no matter what), Pederson, Hodge and Davis all could be gone with draft picks or UDFA brought on this year or next for a couple hundred thousand less each.
 

Rams43

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A sobering analysis by two respected and well connected Ram beat writers.

Getting successfully through the future cap implications while striving to retain all possible talented players will require all the combined skills of Demoff, Snead, McVay and his fine coaching staff.

Clearly, some quality and much loved players will have to be allowed to walk. Gulp...

My prediction? Robert Woods won’t be one of them.

Our salvation must be the continued excellence of the Snead/McVay collaboration in both the draft and 2nd tier FA. If those two can come through, then the Rams can continue to be an excellent team. But if they stumble? Well, it’s gonna be challenging, to say the least.

Which current players are within our core group? Must haves, IOW?

Goff
Woods
Cooks
Kupp
AD
JJ
Hekker
GZ

Not the longest of lists, is it? Notice that I didn’t include Gurley because of his health questions? He’ll still be here because of his contract, but the Rams simply have to prepare for life without Gurley by ‘21 and beyond. That infernal Gurley contract sure makes the retention of some others even more tricky.

Those 8 players that I listed are players that I can’t imagine the Rams allowing to walk. After those 8 the Rams must make a pecking order list of further players that they most want to retain. And then hope and pray that they can continue drafting and developing young talent to fill in the spaces vacated.
 

wolfdogg

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None of this preseason speculation will matter come January. Obviously the rams have a ton of very talented players with 2020 contract consideration so it will boil down to who produces on the field this season.

One or two big contracts will probably have to go but it will be mostly because the rams see their replacement already on the roster. For instance

Brockers.......Meyers, fox
Any of the cornerbacks......Long
Fowler......take your pick
Whit.....noteboom or 2019 rooks

The rams winning the Superbowl will also play a part. Whit says he's more fired up for this season than he has been in the past. That's an incredible statement. So how will he feel after winning it all. I dont see why he'd want to retire. Maybe he takes a significant pay cut to stay.

Rams are in a great place personnel wise and snead and mcvay know what they're doing.
 

CGI_Ram

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Woods isn't going anywhere.

Too good of a player on a good contract for both.
 

den-the-coach

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Woods isn't going anywhere.

Too good of a player on a good contract for both.

Right age and his blocking too plus being from USC. Woods will want to get paid, but let's hope it all works out...One thing for sure, the Los Angeles Rams have all the ingredients for a great free agent destination, but it always comes down to cap space.

You have the right Coach, nobody knew Woods before McVay, the right Owner, who will spare no expense and great weather, traffic is an issue, but that's why you have Lyft or Uber so you can focus on practice and the game.
 

Ram65

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Rams will keep Woods through his final contract year of 2021. He is a bargain. The Rams are and will be very top heavy on contracts. Take some chances with converting salary to signing bonus if need be. They should be able to manage next year and even 2021 but it's not easy.

Brockers will be the next Saffold.
Peters will be too expensive.


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/cap/2020/

upload_2019-6-1_15-33-10.png
 

CGI_Ram

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Rams will keep Woods through his final contract year of 2021. He is a bargain. The Rams are and will be very top heavy on contracts. Take some chances with converting salary to signing bonus if need be. They should be able to manage next year and even 2021 but it's not easy.

Brockers will be the next Saffold.
Peters will be too expensive.


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/cap/2020/

View attachment 29196

As much as I love Brockers, his contract/extension feels like the odd one out next season.
 

Riverumbbq

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1) Franklin, Joseph-Day & Gaines make Brockers expendable in 2020.

2) Wouldn't be surprised to see Talib or Whitworth re-signed for one final year in 2020, unless we win the SB in 2019.

3) High 2020 Draft Pick will replace Fowler.

4) 'Show me the money' Peters will flee during his free agency.

5) Blythe & Higbee will likely follow the outside money in free agency.

2020 Draft will bring :

Edge rusher
CB
1 or 2 offensive linemen
TE

jmo.