The Redskins/Rams pick heading into final week

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CGI_Ram

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http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams

ST. LOUIS -- Well, we've finally arrived at this, the final week of Redskins watch. For those who have actually watched the Redskins play all season, I offer my condolences on having to watch such bad football. If you're a Rams fan, I'm sure you're quite happy with how things are turning out.

After this week, nobody will have to watch the Redskins for some time. We'll finally know where the Rams' final first-round pick from that trade stands, and all of the draft speculation can begin kicking into overdrive. As it stands, with one game to go, the Rams hold picks No. 2 and 15 in the 2014 NFL draft.

Throughout the season there have been many permutations of how things could play out and where the Rams' pick from Washington could ultimately land. With just one week left, it's much easier to have a read on where it could end. Here's the easiest breakdown I can manage:

Games that matter for the Rams' pick this weekend:

Washington at New York Giants
Houston at Tennessee
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Denver at Oakland (to a lesser degree)

For the Rams to get the No. 1 overall pick from Washington:

The Redskins lose to the Giants and Houston beats Tennessee. This would leave both teams at 3-13 and go to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. That strength of schedule is fluid, but Houston's is much higher than Washington's right now and it would be awfully tough for those numbers to shift dramatically enough to keep the Rams from getting the top pick in this scenario.

For the Rams to get the No. 2 overall pick from Washington:

The Redskins lose to the Giants and Tennessee beats Houston OR the Redskins win and don't end up with the same record as Jacksonville. Oakland's strength of schedule projects to be higher than Washington's even if the Raiders and Redskins have the same record, though there's an outside chance of that happening.

For the Rams to get the No. 3 overall pick from Washington:

The Redskins beat the Giants and Jacksonville beats Indianapolis. Jacksonville figures to have an easier strength of schedule than Washington, which would most likely give the Jaguars the tiebreaker and move ahead of the Redskins in the order.

Bottom line:

All told, the Rams are in a terrific spot in that there's almost no chance Washington's pick will drop below third overall on the season's final weekend. Best-case scenario, they get a little help from the Giants and Texans and they end up with the ultimate prize. They're already playing with house money, but if you're a Rams fan, you can add Houston to the list of teams you're rooting for in the season's final week.
 

RamzFanz

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#1 could happen. It's not likely, but it's more than possible. I would give it a 20% chance myself.
 
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What an awful article, it didn't take me that long to calculate that it is impossibility for the Texans to have a worse strength of schedule than Washington no matter what, not "awfully tough" but impossible.

Again "there's almost no chance Washington's pick will drop below third overall on the season's final weekend." there's not almost no chance but no chance.

I'm sorry but if someone get's an article published they should at least put in some background work to get there facts right.
 

max

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How about Football outsiders? They have the Rams at only 87% chance to have a top 3 pick.

And they pride themselves on stats.
 

RFIP

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How about Football outsiders? They have the Rams at only 87% chance to have a top 3 pick.

And they pride themselves on stats.

Max my boy, have been following your breakdown of this pick and I thank you for all the work on it. Top 3 at worst is just awesome!

Going to make this final week of regular season so much more entertaining with Giants/ Skins game and Texans/Titans games both early (1:00 pm est) so I can root like crazy there before settling in for Rams finale!
 

PhxRam

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Are there any sure fire number one picks this year?

I guess the question is, is there anyone worthy of a team trading up to number one? (If we were to get the first pick)
 

Alan

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PhxRam trying to figure our chances:
Are there any sure fire number one picks this year?

I guess the question is, is there anyone worthy of a team trading up to number one? (If we were to get the first pick)

Bridgewater I'd think. Maybe Clowney.
 

CGI_Ram

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Bridgewater I'd think. Maybe Clowney.

Some player's stock will rise as we get past the combine... But those would be solid 1 and 2 !
 

BonifayRam

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I'll say this if the Rams luck does change & the Rams end up with the #1 overall.....One thing for-sure the Rams off season will be anything but dull! The sport press & the blogs will be all over this & it will be brutal for the Washington fans to bare up! Heads won't just role but will fly in abundance! Not sure RG3 will ever get it going in DC.
 

CGI_Ram

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McShay's latest mock has 4 QB's going top 6.

If those prospects hold or gain value; no way a top 6 GM is going to sit put and take whichever one falls to him.

Let's root for the QB's to be hot this offseason.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...ry-first-round-pick?refresh=true&refresh=true

#1 Bridgewater

Analysis: This is a tough call right off the bat. I have Bridgewater ranked as the top quarterback prospect in this class, but just ninth overall. The question for the Texans is going to be this: Do you have a player at another position who grades out considerably higher? (Possibilities include Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews or South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney.) Because if not, given their need at QB and the importance of that position, my guess is that they'd talk themselves into taking Bridgewater -- or whichever QB ranks highest on their board in May.

Bridgewater has great football intelligence, is mentally and physically tough, and has proved he can beat opponents from inside the pocket; he can read defenses, has a quick release and is very accurate. If he isn't the top overall pick, it'll be because of questions about his durability. He'll also need to hold off UCF quarterback Blake Bortles during the draft process. Bortles isn't as polished as Bridgewater but does have a higher ceiling.

#2 Mathews

Analysis: St. Louis owns this pick as part of the trade that brought Robert Griffin III to Washington during the 2012 draft. If this year's QB draft class were on the same level as that one, which had two elite prospects in RG III and Andrew Luck, then perhaps the Rams would consider taking a quarterback here. But I think that Sam Bradford can be the guy for them at QB when he's healthy, which is why they have to place a huge priority on keeping Bradford upright.

Enter Matthews, who has the pedigree, work ethic, durability and skills as both a run- and pass-blocker to be a very good player for St. Louis. He has the versatility to be plugged in at right tackle on day one opposite Jake Long, and to eventually replace Long at left tackle. With a healthy Bradford and improved offensive line, the Rams could be really good next season.

#3 Bortles

Analysis: The Raiders need to upgrade at the QB position, and even though he isn't the most well-known prospect, Bortles has the potential to be a top-10 pick. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if he ends up going ahead of Bridgewater.

Bortles has good size, arm strength and accuracy, and has proved he can win from inside the pocket. He also possesses good character and a strong football IQ. A nice bonus is that he's built to last in the NFL because he's big and mobile enough to move around. He isn't Cam Newton, but more of a cross between Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger.

#4 Manziel

Analysis: This will be a tough decision. Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley is hoping to find a leader at QB who can elevate the whole team, the way Russell Wilson did with Seattle in 2012. Is Manziel that guy? I think the key for Manziel is going to be how he interviews. Some teams are going to fall in love with his confidence, whereas others will be turned off by him. One reason why I think Manziel fits in Jacksonville is that offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch has proved throughout his career that he can successfully adapt his system to his personnel, which is a must for any team that brings in Manziel, given his exceptional mobility and improvisational skills.

Manziel doesn't have ideal size, but I've been really impressed this season with how he improved his delivery mechanics to get better velocity on his throws, and his improvement at going through his progressions. If he can continue to develop in the NFL, he has a chance to be really good.

#5 Clowney

Analysis: The Falcons are in dire need of an edge rusher, and in this scenario they'll get one in the form of our No. 1-ranked prospect in the draft. There's something of a gamble involved with Clowney in that his motor ran hot and cold toward the end of the season, but he isn't a bad kid and he has the potential to develop into a double-digit sack guy, a three-down lineman and a dominant player overall. I see a lot of Julius Peppers in him; Peppers hasn't always given the best effort, but I don't know of many teams that wouldn't want him. Clowney's a tremendous value if he drops this far; if it weren't for the number of QB-needy teams picking ahead of Atlanta, he'd go earlier.

#6 Carr

Analysis: Quarterback is the Browns' top priority. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner wants a QB with size and the arm strength to push the ball down the field, and that's what Carr provides. He is a little bit of a reach here, but there's a lot to like about his game. He had a monster 2013 season (4,866 yards, 48 TDs to just 7 INTs), is very accurate and has great touch on short-to-intermediate throws, has a high football IQ and gets the ball out quickly. He can improve his deep-ball accuracy, but has the arm strength to make all the NFL throws and the maturity and experience to come in and play right away.
 
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I'll say this if the Rams luck does change & the Rams end up with the #1 overall.....One thing for-sure the Rams off season will be anything but dull! The sport press & the blogs will be all over this & it will be brutal for the Washington fans to bare up! Heads won't just role but will fly in abundance! Not sure RG3 will ever get it going in DC.

The thing with Griffin is the talent will be immense, we all know that over at the loony bin Bradford is a bust because he cost the number one pick, imagine if he cost the number one pick, the number six pick, the number 22 pick and the number 39 pick :omg:.
 

BonifayRam

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The thing with Griffin is the talent will be immense, we all know that over at the loony bin Bradford is a bust because he cost the number one pick, imagine if he cost the number one pick, the number six pick, the number 22 pick and the number 39 pick :omg:.

Got Me Under Pressure

 

Alan

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It's not just that I don't particularly like the Matthews pick that I don't like that mock, I mainly don't like us not trading down. I see no reason why we can't get a very good OT at say #6.
 
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kurtfaulk

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It's not just that I don't particularly like the Matthews that I don't like that mock, I mainly don't like us not trading down. I see no reason why we can't get a very good OT at say #6.

I would assume teams are gonna fall in love with one of the qbs and will move up to make sure they get him. At least that's my hope for the Draft.

.
 

BonifayRam

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It's not just that I don't particularly like the Matthews pick that I don't like that mock, I mainly don't like us not trading down. I see no reason why we can't get a very good OT at say #6.

You know Alan no other ROD'mer loves the big ugly OT's like I do but I agree with you here on Jake Mathews. Of course if we end up with the first overall ...Snead 'wins the bid" calls trump & run the draft from StLouis & target several OT's where he expects them to settle in at ....then he can move up or move down anywhere if he pleases picking up second day picks each & every move down if trade partners line up.

Presently (could change) I want them to first target that CB Dennard then we look next for some lingering OT's. The Browns have some serious Draft capital as it stands. Browns have two first, a second, 2 thirds & 2 fourths to begin with.
 

F. Mulder

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Usually there ends up being 3-5 "can't miss/must-have/elite" type players in each draft. Who specifically those players are come April is not known yet but unless the Rams are head over heels for one of them the top 3rd through the mid/late second round of this draft looks to be pretty solid IMO. Therefore, anyway to have at least one pick in the top 10 and another 1-2 in the top 40 sounds good to me (without actually working out the trade metrics etc).