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NFL's Short-Yardage Strategy: Hiding the Sneak?
by Scott Kacsmar
Before the 2013 season started I did a study of the most unstoppable play in the NFL: the quarterback sneak. When something works over 85 percent of the time regardless of the quarterback's height, speed and other abilities, then how does this not become a more widespread play call when a team needs a yard? Wouldn't the Colts be better off letting Andrew Luck pick a spot to squeeze in a few inches behind his center than to hand off to Trent Richardson four yards in the backfield? Using the quarterback as a short-yardage weapon more often is something every team should look into. After crunching the numbers for 2013, I can say the results were on par with past years, except for one major difference.
Quarterbacks carried the ball on third-and-short at the lowest rate (7.6 percent) in five years and the lowest rate on fourth-and-short (14.9 percent) since 2000. There was a 35 percent decrease on third-and-1 runs by the quarterback in 2013 compared to 2009-12. So instead of seeing the usual 90-100 of those plays, there were just 61 this season.
Despite a league built with the biggest, fastest, most athletic group of quarterbacks in NFL history; an unrivaled attention to safety and protection of those players; massive offensive linemen; and the liberty to make the quarterback an effective runner, the most unstoppable play in the game mysteriously went back into hiding. Just when you think you've planted a flag for "Analytics" into the NFL landscape, a tank runs it right over.
Did the conversion rates justify the suboptimal decision making from this past season? Let's examine.
Read rest of article and data at the link
by Scott Kacsmar
Before the 2013 season started I did a study of the most unstoppable play in the NFL: the quarterback sneak. When something works over 85 percent of the time regardless of the quarterback's height, speed and other abilities, then how does this not become a more widespread play call when a team needs a yard? Wouldn't the Colts be better off letting Andrew Luck pick a spot to squeeze in a few inches behind his center than to hand off to Trent Richardson four yards in the backfield? Using the quarterback as a short-yardage weapon more often is something every team should look into. After crunching the numbers for 2013, I can say the results were on par with past years, except for one major difference.
Quarterbacks carried the ball on third-and-short at the lowest rate (7.6 percent) in five years and the lowest rate on fourth-and-short (14.9 percent) since 2000. There was a 35 percent decrease on third-and-1 runs by the quarterback in 2013 compared to 2009-12. So instead of seeing the usual 90-100 of those plays, there were just 61 this season.
Despite a league built with the biggest, fastest, most athletic group of quarterbacks in NFL history; an unrivaled attention to safety and protection of those players; massive offensive linemen; and the liberty to make the quarterback an effective runner, the most unstoppable play in the game mysteriously went back into hiding. Just when you think you've planted a flag for "Analytics" into the NFL landscape, a tank runs it right over.
Did the conversion rates justify the suboptimal decision making from this past season? Let's examine.
Read rest of article and data at the link
