The QB Market Needs To Crash

[Memphis Ram]

A market formed by Hero Worship / Marketing and the lack of Offensive Creativity which limits the available talent pool at the position in the NFL.

And all it would take is some creative offensive minds who can take advantage of the bevy of available talent who have not even been given the opportunity to play the position in this league. These guys, plus those who have been given the opportunity, but were not played to their strengths and failed to transition to the traditional pocket passer model could water down the market tremendously.

I would absolutely LOVE to see Auburn's Gus Malzahn come to the NFL and install his offense (or just many of his packages) to take advantage of these guys and get back to the ULTIMATE GOAL of winning the Super Bowl.

The league, media, and even fans have made imaginary gods of these QBs where they somehow have to have a long shelf life as the face of their franchises for years to come. In fact, the league has even bent over backwards to protect these guys via the rules when it is really the lack of innovation/creativity by NFL teams that shrinks the available talent pool ( thus making them so hard to replace). Maybe I'm just too hard-hearted or something, but if a team's QB has his career shortened by running and the team gets a Super Bowl out of it, then so be it. Isn't that the ULTIMATE GOAL? No one is crying over the RBs who typically go downhill or have careers end at 30 years old. But, our QBs have to have this fairy tale 10-15 year career in order to be deemed a success. Baloney.

And these team's lack of creativity and blinding Hero Worship has teams willing to vastly overpay for even average QBs and/or use high draft choices on inferior overall football players in hope of striking gold at the position. And all of this is done at the expense of building the rest of the TEAM any QB needs to have or sustain success. And nevermind that there have typically been only 5-7 special talents at the position capable of handling the traditional pocket passer role in the entire league at one time over the years.

While great to have, everyone doesn't get one and you don't have to have one of the rare franchise pocket passers to win in this league. Sure, the guy has to be able to make some plays from the pocket, but teams can win if even with a guy that doesn't excel there. That is, if they also play him to his strengths and surround him with enough talent (see Russell Wilson, he threw for 103, 215, & 206 yards last postseason. And the NFC Championship Game featured two starting QBs who had the fewest passing attempts in the NFL).

I can't harp on this enough. I really believe that teams should back off on big investments at the QB position and that the position should be and can be devalued a bit like the running back position has been over the years (though it will probably couldn't go that far). Again, it just takes the right offensive minds and organizations with some guts to buck the norm. Boy, I would really love to see Auburn's Gus Malzahn come to the NFL, implement his offense, and open the blinded eyes of the NFL hierarchy.

 

[Alan]

I was reading an article recently where it was said that the QB market is going to soar as the CAP number soars. That might mean they think it's going to remain relatively the same but it certainly doesn't auger well for a crash.

 

[-X-]

I like how you think outside of the box like that, and I like the idea. The problem, I guess, is that you'd have to get all teams to run a similar offense or a slight variant thereof in order to make QBs interchangeable. And even if that happened, it would only take one coach to go back to the "traditional" method of offense, win a Super Bowl, and then the rest of the league would slowly go back to that. Unfortunately, I don't see a way to knock QBs down off the pedestal. They're just one of two players on a team that can take over a game (RB being the other).

 

[WvuIN02]

There's such a huge jump from college to the NFL. The best player you played against on defense in college...you play against an entire team like that in the NFL. Not 18 year boys but grown men who all run faster and hit much harder. Add to that, you play an entire 16 game schedule + the playoffs. When offenses like Malzahn's are predicated on having a QB who can run and run a lot, the health issue compounds the problem, and you go a step further when teams tie up a lot of money in the QB position. You would need a full roster 3 deep of QBs who can all excel running that offense because your risk would be so great.

 

[jrry32]

We've had many discussions but Memphis, I don't think it's as simple as you're making it out to be. Many offenses have moved from the college ranks to the NFL...some have worked, some have not. But these type of offenses that are supposed to make QBs interchangeable just rarely seem to accomplish that.

 

[blue4]

I don't think it would work. NFL defenses are too good, and the usual failure of these read option run offenses is due to much more than a lack of creativity from the OCs.

 

[Memphis Ram]

There's such a huge jump from college to the NFL. The best player you played against on defense in college...you play against an entire team like that in the NFL. Not 18 year boys but grown men who all run faster and hit much harder. Add to that, you play an entire 16 game schedule + the playoffs. When offenses like Malzahn's are predicated on having a QB who can run and run a lot, the health issue compounds the problem, and you go a step further when teams tie up a lot of money in the QB position. You would need a full roster 3 deep of QBs who can all excel running that offense because your risk would be so great.

3 deep of QBs who can excel running the offense? I agree. And until the league copycats the offense quite a bit, I believe that it's possible using all of the available talent sitting on the sidelines or even out of even who haven't been given the opportunity. There just has to be slight adjustment to cater to their strengths. Example. Cam Newton and Nick Marshall are the not same, but Malzahn adjusted his offense to compensate for what Marshall does best.

And as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't tie up today's typical overpaying QB money at the the position.

As far as the jump from college to the NFL, that QB is not only playing against better talent in the NFL, but he will also be playing WITH better talent around him, too.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I don't think it would work. NFL defenses are too good, and the usual failure of these read option run offenses is due to much more than a lack of creativity from the OCs.

I wasn't aware that there were teams running read option run offenses in the NFL or that one has failed.

We've had many discussions but Memphis, I don't think it's as simple as you're making it out to be. Many offenses have moved from the college ranks to the NFL...some have worked, some have not. But these type of offenses that are supposed to make QBs interchangeable just rarely seem to accomplish that.

I'm sorry, but when was the last time a college offense that was supposed to make QBs interchangeable came to the NFL?

 

[blue4]

I'm sorry, but when was the last time a college offense that was supposed to make QBs interchangeable came to the NFL?

I don't know if it's exactly what you mean but Steve Spurrier thought he could use any old QB he had a little success with. Was pretty convinced his college offensive system would work anywhere. It did not.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I don't know if it's exactly what you mean but Steve Spurrier thought he could use any old QB he had a little success with. Was pretty convinced his college offensive system would work anywhere. It did not.

No it's not. Spurrier's offense was a passing offense featuring a drop back passer. He learned that this is harder to do in the NFL if you don't have one of those rare QBs.

Malzahn's offense is a power rushing offense where most of the passing plays come off of play-action or quick outs. It's won and lost in the trenches like the game is meant to be played. Only he helps his guys out via misdirection and various formations to keep defenders honest. And he has plays where his QB has 2-4 options on a play to counter whatever the defense does.

 

[jrry32]

I'm sorry, but when was the last time a college offense that was supposed to make QBs interchangeable came to the NFL?

Steve Spurrier
June Jones
Chip Kelly
Bobby Petrino
Marc Trestman(CFL Offense...although he has NFL roots)

I recall it being said about Trestman last year. Look what he did with McCown, he can do it with any QB. Petrino's system was supposed to work with most any QB...same with Spurrier's Fun'N'Gun. June Jones's Run'N'Shoot was much the same.

Chip Kelly is the only one the jury is really out on.

 

[Boston Ram]

3 deep of QBs who can excel running the offense? I agree. And until the league copycats the offense quite a bit, I believe that it's possible using all of the available talent sitting on the sidelines or even out of even who haven't been given the opportunity. There just has to be slight adjustment to cater to their strengths. Example. Cam Newton and Nick Marshall are the not same, but Malzahn adjusted his offense to compensate for what Marshall does best.

And as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't tie up today's typical overpaying QB money at the the position.

As far as the jump from college to the NFL, that QB is not only playing against better talent in the NFL, but he will also be playing WITH better talent around him, too.

I have been reading and enjoying your post for about 7 years now. You are one of the most knowledgeable dudes when it comes to the college game.

You know better than anyone that replacing Newton with Marshall at the college level is not comparable to replacing say Bradford with Hill.

On some level I agree with you but the only NFL example you have is Wilson who in fact is special. I would have serious doubts that if Wilson went down you could replace him with someone like Maziel.

 

[jrry32]

No it's not. Spurrier's offense was a passing offense which is harder to in the NFL if you don't have one of those rare QBs. Malzahn's offense is a power rushing offense where most of the passing plays come off of play-action or quick outs. It's won and lost in the trenches like the game is meant to be played. Only he helps his guys out via misdirection and various formations to keep defenders honest. And he has plays where his QB has 2-4 options on a play to counter whatever the defense does.

Spurrier's system was supposed to make it so most any NFL QB with his preferred skill-set could succeed.

You're basically claiming the same for Malzahn's. The difference lies in the focus of the offense...Spurrier's was pass while Malzahn's is run.

Still, that doesn't mean Malzahn will definitely be successful.

If you can't throw the ball effectively, you're not going anywhere. And I'm sorry, Memphis, but trusting mediocre to poor passers to move your offense is hard for anyone to do.

Malzahn's offense is working against college defenses. We haven't seen it in the NFL. Personally, I think if it were as easy as you claim, we'd see it by now.

If you remember the Broncos tried to do something like this with Tebow and it resulted in a wildly inconsistent offense for obvious reasons.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Steve Spurrier
June Jones
Chip Kelly
Bobby Petrino
Marc Trestman(CFL Offense...although he has NFL roots)

I recall it being said about Trestman last year. Look what he did with McCown, he can do it with any QB. Petrino's system was supposed to work with most any QB...same with Spurrier's Fun'N'Gun. June Jones's Run'N'Shoot was much the same.

Chip Kelly is the only one the jury is really out on.

Now I understand. Initially I misread and assumed that you were talking about the QBs skill set. My bad.

Now which one of these isn't a passing offense and relys more on old fashion running the football like Malzahn's?

 

[Memphis Ram]

Spurrier's system was supposed to make it so most any NFL QB with his preferred skill-set could succeed.

You're basically claiming the same for Malzahn's. The difference lies in the focus of the offense...Spurrier's was pass while Malzahn's is run.

Still, that doesn't mean Malzahn will definitely be successful.

If you can't throw the ball effectively, you're not going anywhere. And I'm sorry, Memphis, but trusting mediocre to poor passers to move your offense is hard for anyone to do.

Malzahn's offense is working against college defenses. We haven't seen it in the NFL. Personally, I think if it were as easy as you claim, we'd see it by now.

If you remember the Broncos tried to do something like this with Tebow and it resulted in a wildly inconsistent offense for obvious reasons.

Yeah, the Broncos went 7-4 with Tebow at QB and even won a playoff game vs. the Steelers before they dumped him. And that offense was extremely basic compared to Malzahn's. Besides, I wouldn't lean towards bringing in someone of Tebow's physical abilities. Love his heart, but he wasn't going to outrun or elude anybody, had a long windup to pass, and from what I read would struggle to hit even stationary targets in practice.

And personally, I believe the reasons I listed in the original post are the reason we probably won't see Malzahn's offense in the NFL.

 

[jrry32]

Now I understand. Initially I misread and assumed that you were talking about the QBs skill set. My bad.

Now which one of these isn't a passing offense and relys more on old fashion running the football like Malzahn's?

We haven't seen that yet...in a way that bucked the trend. But we don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

Yeah, the Broncos went 7-4 with Tebow at QB and even won a playoff game vs. the Steelers before they dumped him. And that offense was extremely basic compared to Malzahn's. Besides, I wouldn't lean towards bringing in someone of Tebow's physical abilities. Love his heart, but he wasn't going to outrun or elude anybody, had a long windup to pass, and from what I read would struggle to hit even stationary targets in practice.

And personally, I believe the reasons I listed in the original post are the reason we probably won't see Malzahn's offense in the NFL.

Yea but the Broncos offense was extremely inconsistent. And they did win a playoff game but Tebow also had the game of his career.

And while Tebow had his flaws as a passer...so do the guys you're looking at. I also think you're underselling his running ability. He was a very effective runner.

 

[blue4]

No it's not. Spurrier's offense was a passing offense featuring a drop back passer. He learned that this is harder to do in the NFL if you don't have one of those rare QBs.

Malzahn's offense is a power rushing offense where most of the passing plays come off of play-action or quick outs. It's won and lost in the trenches like the game is meant to be played. Only he helps his guys out via misdirection and various formations to keep defenders honest. And he has plays where his QB has 2-4 options on a play to counter whatever the defense does.

Hey you asked for a college system where the QB was interchangeable. I delivered.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I have been reading and enjoying your post for about 7 years now. You are one of the most knowledgeable dudes when it comes to the college game.

You know better than anyone that replacing Newton with Marshall at the college level is not comparable to replacing say Bradford with Hill.

On some level I agree with you but the only NFL example you have is Wilson who in fact is special. I would have serious doubts that if Wilson went down you could replace him with someone like Maziel.

Sorry, but I think you lost me on the Bradford and Hill thing as I wasn't trying to make that comparison. That said, an OC playing to the strengths of his QB should be a basic premise. I sort of chuckle when after a QB goes down, the coach comes out with this "we aren't going to change the offense at all. Next man up stuff."

IMO, the sample size is small because the opportunities have been small.

On Manziel? If kept his head on straight and had a strong defense and rushing attack backing him, I do think that he would be successful in Seattle being a playmaker, too.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Hey you asked for a college system where the QB was interchangeable. I delivered.

Yeah, I misread the earlier statement.

 

[Memphis Ram]

We haven't seen that yet...in a way that bucked the trend. But we don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

Won't know until someone has the balls to try. But, I like it's chances as the premise isn't reliant upon having one of the rare pocket passers that the majority of NFL teams never get on their squads, but need for their traditional offenses to excel.

Yea but the Broncos offense was extremely inconsistent. And they did win a playoff game but Tebow also had the game of his career.

And while Tebow had his flaws as a passer...so do the guys you're looking at. I also think you're underselling his running ability. He was a very effective runner.

Extremely inconsistent and basic. It was kind of like what Fisher stated in an interview recently. This is what we are going to do, now stop it. Now don't get me wrong. Malzahn's offense carrying some of the same mindset, but due to all the formations and mis-direction it's NOT NEARLY as easy to read.

Yes, Tebow was an effective runner, but his game was more like a big brusing FB. Sure that will get you positive yards, but not nearly as many big plays.