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We're always busy looking for new ways to break things down at Pro Football Focus. Inspired to some degree by the "Moneyball" phenomenon, we combined our own grades and players' cap hits to find out which NFL players truly were the most over and undervalued.
You can read a little bit about the concept of "Performance Based Value" here, but essentially what it has enabled us to do is put together a team that is the most overvalued in the league based on their performance relative to their cap hit. (Tomorrow we'll look at the NFL's most undervalued players.)
Let's take a look at the team composed of 24 of the most overvalued NFL players. (Note: We've excluded those who missed a significant amount of time due to injury.)
Offense
Quarterback: Philip Rivers
Cap difference: minus-$10.3 million
Rivers edges Michael Vick because Vick missed time due to injury, though that shouldn't be used to deflect any criticism directed at the Chargers' quarterback. Obviously protection was a problem in San Diego, but there also were obvious times when Rivers was anticipating pressure that simply didn't manifest itself. That led to a ridiculous 42 balls thrown away (the next most was 30), with 15 of those throwaways coming on plays he wasn't pressured.
Running back: Chris Johnson
Cap difference: minus-$10m
Johnson counted an astronomical $11.5m against the Titans' cap in 2012, and for what? The yardage numbers were there, but there were too many examples of him not taking what his offensive line gave him, and his ability to make defenders miss pales compared to his peers. He forced just 29 missed tackles all season, which -- combined with his 2.0 yards after contact per carry -- earned him the seventh-lowest elusive rating of all running backs.
Fullback: Greg Jones
Cap difference: minus-$3.3m
Is it worth any player absorbing 3.3 percent of your salary cap when he's only on the field for 246 snaps all season? Jones didn't play in four games, but the Jaguars were still guilty of overspending at a non-premium position, with the team also only averaging 3.3 yards per carry (with one touchdown) when Jones was lined up at fullback.
Tight end: Antonio Gates
Cap difference: minus-$4.8m
Remember when San Diego's Gates was the receiving tight end all aspired to be? Well, a drop-off in play from his quarterback, combined with age (32) catching up with him, have seen that all change. He was targeted 76 times last season and ran 523 pass routes, and had a woeful 1.03 yards per route run. That was the third-worst number among tight ends.
Wide receiver: Larry Fitzgerald
Cap difference: minus-$12m
Sometimes you just have to blame a team. The Cardinals invested heavily in Fitzgerald, yet they haven't put the talent around him to make full use of their marquee receiver. In years past Fitzgerald has been able to overcome that, but this season appeared to be something of a breaking point. He caught just 48 percent of balls thrown his way (eighth-lowest of all receivers) and dropped 6.58 percent of catchable balls (his highest rate since we started tracking in 2008).
Wide receiver: Darrius Heyward-Bey
Cap difference: minus-$6.4m
This wasn't a monumentally horrible season for the Raiders receiver, but the former first-round pick still doesn't look like the player he was drafted to be. His 12.77 drop rate was the 13th-worst of all receivers and he caught only four balls all where the in-air yardage was over 20 yards. Paid like a superstar, Heyward-Bey mustered 1.19 yards per route he ran last season (ninth-worst among receivers).
Left tackle: Jake Long
Cap difference: minus-$11.6m
Even if Long didn't miss more than four games because of injury, he still would have been the most overvalued tackle in the league. With a monumental $12.8 million Dolphins cap hit (though Trent Williams actually had a bigger one), Long needed to play lights-out to justify his cost -- and he didn't. In fact, Long ranked 25th out of all left tackles in our grading, with his run blocking below average and his pass blocking bettered by his peers. In our pass blocking efficiency stat, 15 other left tackles had better scores.
Right tackle: Doug Free
Cap difference: minus-$3.4m
Free gets the nod over Jeremy Trueblood because the Buccaneer lost his job in part to the admirable performance of Demar Dotson. Free has no such excuse for offering such poor value for the Cowboys. Since his breakout 2010 season, his performance has gotten worse and worse, to the point that this season, only seven right tackles earned worse grades. Surrendering 15 penalties and 51 combined sacks, hits and hurries just isn't good enough.
Left guard: Charlie Johnson
Cap difference: minus-$2.8m
Logan Mankins, Carl Nicks and Chris Kuper lacked value because of injuries. Charlie Johnson? Less so. He's less of a liability at guard than tackle, but it's worth noting the Vikings averaged 5.4 yards per carry, but off left guard that number was only 4.5.
Right guard: Uche Nwaneri
Cap difference: minus-$2.4m
If you have a guard who has a cap hit of nearly $4 million, then you really want to get a good all-around performance from said player. Unfortunately, while Nwaneri of the Jaguars can make the kind of blocks you love seeing out of a guard, his 29 quarterback disruptions allowed on 564 pass blocks led to the 50th-best pass blocking efficiency score out of 72 qualifying guards.
Center: Brad Meester
Cap difference: minus-$2.3m
The Jaguars' Meester has been a good player for a long time. But with a lot of miles on the clock, he finished the year as our 35th-ranked center (out of 36). His inability to get movement in the run game was a big problem for Jacksonville, and highlights that a $3.3 million cap hit wasn't a good value.
Defense
Defensive end: Elvis Dumervil
Cap difference: minus-$14m
Yes, we're telling you that Dumervil and the 12 times he got to the quarterback for a sack are overrated by that much. With a monstrous $15.6 million cap hit, this has to go down as one of the deals the Broncos got wrong years ago; they did not do a good job of judging the impact Dumervil has on the majority of his snaps. Sure, he had the 14th-highest pass rushing productivity score of all defensive ends, but eight costly penalties and some terrible run defense (his 4.8 run stop percentage was the 13th-lowest of all defensive ends) shows a player who has made a reputation on his highlight reel and not the body of his work.
Defensive end: Dwight Freeney
Cap difference: minus-$13.2m
Although Freeney was technically an outside linebacker for the Colts, he actually spent 79.2 percent of his snaps with his hand on the ground. So we've got no problem putting him at defensive end. And after picking up just 47 combined sacks, hits and hurries on 414 pass rushes, we have no problem putting him on this team, either.
Defensive tackle: Tyson Jackson
Cap difference: minus-$8.6m
The poster child for why there needed to be a rookie wage cap. Jackson counted $9.5 million against the cap last year and for what? No longer trusted to be part of the Chiefs' sub package defense because of his complete inability to create any pressure, he managed just seven quarterback disruptions all season on 275 pass rushes. Naturally, that meant he had the lowest pass-rushing productivity score of all his peers. He may be primarily a run defender now, but you don't spend that much money on a barely average two-gap defender.
Defensive tackle: Ahtyba Rubin
Cap difference: minus-$6.6m
You've got to hold the Browns partially responsible here. They've got a player like Rubin who does his best work in the run game, yet he's left on the field for 388 pass-rushing snaps (where he only registered 2 sacks, 4 hits and 12 hurries). Rubin is a good player for what he is, but the Browns are overpaying him when he has a cap hit of $9.4 million.
Linebacker: David Harris
Cap difference: minus-$10.9m
We're being a bit creative with our linebackers and are fitting three inside linebackers onto the field. They "earned" this recognition, and it starts with Harris and his ridiculous $12 million Jets cap hit. Harris has never been as good as people say, rather benefiting from a team that funneled players toward him. He doesn't do a great job getting off blocks, and this season his work in coverage wasn't enough to get him off the hook. That's why he finished as our sixth-lowest rated inside linebacker.
Linebacker: Brian Urlacher
Cap difference: minus-$8.4m
Whether Urlacher was severely hampered by injury, he still managed 727 snaps for the Bears and looked to be the Urlacher of old when he was on his heels in coverage. The problem was he just didn't work off blocks and sort through traffic as we've come to expect from him. The result was just 8.8 percent of his run-defense snaps ended with him making a defensive stop. That was only the 33rd-best score (out of 50) among his peers.
Linebacker: Paul Posluszny
Cap difference: minus-$5.8m
A fine first season in Jacksonville gave way to a sophomore slump for Posluszny, who looked a little lost without Daryl Smith on the field next to him -- and certainly not worthy of a player commanding a $7 million cap hit. His problems were all over the field, but it was particularly disappointing to see him give up 472 yards in coverage, the fifth-most of all inside linebackers.
Cornerback: Nnamdi Asomugha
Cap difference: minus-$9.9m
Safe to say the Eagles didn't really get what they were expecting out of Asomugha. Looking a step slower, Asomugha gave up completions on 66.7 percent of balls into his coverage, with five of those being touchdowns. His 15.9 yards per reception allowed was the seventh-highest in the league as he struggled to keep up with the NFL's top receivers.
Cornerback: Corey Webster
Cap difference: minus-$8.3m
There was a time when the Giants putting Webster on an opponent's top receiver made sense. It ceased to make sense this season as Webster got beat over and over again. It became routine to watch him give up a first down, and by season's end he had given up 35 first downs and eight touchdowns. That combined number was the fifth-worst of any cornerback.
Safety: Antrel Rolle
Cap difference: minus-$8m
This was meant to be the year we saw the best of Rolle because he could focus purely on being one of the league's best safeties and no longer had to deal with slot coverage responsibilities for the Giants. It didn't work out that way, and if you're looking for a big reason why, then look no further than his play in coverage. He missed one tackle for every eight he attempted and allowed 419 yards into his primary coverage area -- the 13th-most of all safeties. He's not the worst safety in the league, but his play does not suggest he is worth his $9 million cap hit.
Safety: Ed Reed
Cap difference: minus-$6.5m
While Reed is a Ravens legend and likely headed for the Hall of Fame, one thing he isn't is someone who represented good value for the money last season. No longer the impact player he was in his prime, he missed an astonishing 15 tackles and got beat for three touchdowns. Those aren't the kinds of numbers you expect for a man carrying a $8.5 million cap hit.
Kicker: Connor Barth
Cap difference: minus-$4.5m
Barth finished the season as our second-ranked field goal kicker, but the amount of money the Buccaneers invested in him, combined with the fact he doesn't even do kickoffs, means he doesn't have good value.
Punter: Shane Lechler
Cap difference: minus-$4.9m
In a season of fine punting, Lechler finished only 14th in our rankings -- a down year by his high standards. That, coupled with his big cap hit, means the Raiders would have been wiser allocating their cap room elsewhere.
We're always busy looking for new ways to break things down at Pro Football Focus. Inspired to some degree by the "Moneyball" phenomenon, we combined our own grades and players' cap hits to find out which NFL players truly were the most over and undervalued.
You can read a little bit about the concept of "Performance Based Value" here, but essentially what it has enabled us to do is put together a team that is the most overvalued in the league based on their performance relative to their cap hit. (Tomorrow we'll look at the NFL's most undervalued players.)
Let's take a look at the team composed of 24 of the most overvalued NFL players. (Note: We've excluded those who missed a significant amount of time due to injury.)
Offense
Quarterback: Philip Rivers
Cap difference: minus-$10.3 million
Rivers edges Michael Vick because Vick missed time due to injury, though that shouldn't be used to deflect any criticism directed at the Chargers' quarterback. Obviously protection was a problem in San Diego, but there also were obvious times when Rivers was anticipating pressure that simply didn't manifest itself. That led to a ridiculous 42 balls thrown away (the next most was 30), with 15 of those throwaways coming on plays he wasn't pressured.
Running back: Chris Johnson
Cap difference: minus-$10m
Johnson counted an astronomical $11.5m against the Titans' cap in 2012, and for what? The yardage numbers were there, but there were too many examples of him not taking what his offensive line gave him, and his ability to make defenders miss pales compared to his peers. He forced just 29 missed tackles all season, which -- combined with his 2.0 yards after contact per carry -- earned him the seventh-lowest elusive rating of all running backs.
Fullback: Greg Jones
Cap difference: minus-$3.3m
Is it worth any player absorbing 3.3 percent of your salary cap when he's only on the field for 246 snaps all season? Jones didn't play in four games, but the Jaguars were still guilty of overspending at a non-premium position, with the team also only averaging 3.3 yards per carry (with one touchdown) when Jones was lined up at fullback.
Tight end: Antonio Gates
Cap difference: minus-$4.8m
Remember when San Diego's Gates was the receiving tight end all aspired to be? Well, a drop-off in play from his quarterback, combined with age (32) catching up with him, have seen that all change. He was targeted 76 times last season and ran 523 pass routes, and had a woeful 1.03 yards per route run. That was the third-worst number among tight ends.
Wide receiver: Larry Fitzgerald
Cap difference: minus-$12m
Sometimes you just have to blame a team. The Cardinals invested heavily in Fitzgerald, yet they haven't put the talent around him to make full use of their marquee receiver. In years past Fitzgerald has been able to overcome that, but this season appeared to be something of a breaking point. He caught just 48 percent of balls thrown his way (eighth-lowest of all receivers) and dropped 6.58 percent of catchable balls (his highest rate since we started tracking in 2008).
Wide receiver: Darrius Heyward-Bey
Cap difference: minus-$6.4m
This wasn't a monumentally horrible season for the Raiders receiver, but the former first-round pick still doesn't look like the player he was drafted to be. His 12.77 drop rate was the 13th-worst of all receivers and he caught only four balls all where the in-air yardage was over 20 yards. Paid like a superstar, Heyward-Bey mustered 1.19 yards per route he ran last season (ninth-worst among receivers).
Left tackle: Jake Long
Cap difference: minus-$11.6m
Even if Long didn't miss more than four games because of injury, he still would have been the most overvalued tackle in the league. With a monumental $12.8 million Dolphins cap hit (though Trent Williams actually had a bigger one), Long needed to play lights-out to justify his cost -- and he didn't. In fact, Long ranked 25th out of all left tackles in our grading, with his run blocking below average and his pass blocking bettered by his peers. In our pass blocking efficiency stat, 15 other left tackles had better scores.
Right tackle: Doug Free
Cap difference: minus-$3.4m
Free gets the nod over Jeremy Trueblood because the Buccaneer lost his job in part to the admirable performance of Demar Dotson. Free has no such excuse for offering such poor value for the Cowboys. Since his breakout 2010 season, his performance has gotten worse and worse, to the point that this season, only seven right tackles earned worse grades. Surrendering 15 penalties and 51 combined sacks, hits and hurries just isn't good enough.
Left guard: Charlie Johnson
Cap difference: minus-$2.8m
Logan Mankins, Carl Nicks and Chris Kuper lacked value because of injuries. Charlie Johnson? Less so. He's less of a liability at guard than tackle, but it's worth noting the Vikings averaged 5.4 yards per carry, but off left guard that number was only 4.5.
Right guard: Uche Nwaneri
Cap difference: minus-$2.4m
If you have a guard who has a cap hit of nearly $4 million, then you really want to get a good all-around performance from said player. Unfortunately, while Nwaneri of the Jaguars can make the kind of blocks you love seeing out of a guard, his 29 quarterback disruptions allowed on 564 pass blocks led to the 50th-best pass blocking efficiency score out of 72 qualifying guards.
Center: Brad Meester
Cap difference: minus-$2.3m
The Jaguars' Meester has been a good player for a long time. But with a lot of miles on the clock, he finished the year as our 35th-ranked center (out of 36). His inability to get movement in the run game was a big problem for Jacksonville, and highlights that a $3.3 million cap hit wasn't a good value.
Defense
Defensive end: Elvis Dumervil
Cap difference: minus-$14m
Yes, we're telling you that Dumervil and the 12 times he got to the quarterback for a sack are overrated by that much. With a monstrous $15.6 million cap hit, this has to go down as one of the deals the Broncos got wrong years ago; they did not do a good job of judging the impact Dumervil has on the majority of his snaps. Sure, he had the 14th-highest pass rushing productivity score of all defensive ends, but eight costly penalties and some terrible run defense (his 4.8 run stop percentage was the 13th-lowest of all defensive ends) shows a player who has made a reputation on his highlight reel and not the body of his work.
Defensive end: Dwight Freeney
Cap difference: minus-$13.2m
Although Freeney was technically an outside linebacker for the Colts, he actually spent 79.2 percent of his snaps with his hand on the ground. So we've got no problem putting him at defensive end. And after picking up just 47 combined sacks, hits and hurries on 414 pass rushes, we have no problem putting him on this team, either.
Defensive tackle: Tyson Jackson
Cap difference: minus-$8.6m
The poster child for why there needed to be a rookie wage cap. Jackson counted $9.5 million against the cap last year and for what? No longer trusted to be part of the Chiefs' sub package defense because of his complete inability to create any pressure, he managed just seven quarterback disruptions all season on 275 pass rushes. Naturally, that meant he had the lowest pass-rushing productivity score of all his peers. He may be primarily a run defender now, but you don't spend that much money on a barely average two-gap defender.
Defensive tackle: Ahtyba Rubin
Cap difference: minus-$6.6m
You've got to hold the Browns partially responsible here. They've got a player like Rubin who does his best work in the run game, yet he's left on the field for 388 pass-rushing snaps (where he only registered 2 sacks, 4 hits and 12 hurries). Rubin is a good player for what he is, but the Browns are overpaying him when he has a cap hit of $9.4 million.
Linebacker: David Harris
Cap difference: minus-$10.9m
We're being a bit creative with our linebackers and are fitting three inside linebackers onto the field. They "earned" this recognition, and it starts with Harris and his ridiculous $12 million Jets cap hit. Harris has never been as good as people say, rather benefiting from a team that funneled players toward him. He doesn't do a great job getting off blocks, and this season his work in coverage wasn't enough to get him off the hook. That's why he finished as our sixth-lowest rated inside linebacker.
Linebacker: Brian Urlacher
Cap difference: minus-$8.4m
Whether Urlacher was severely hampered by injury, he still managed 727 snaps for the Bears and looked to be the Urlacher of old when he was on his heels in coverage. The problem was he just didn't work off blocks and sort through traffic as we've come to expect from him. The result was just 8.8 percent of his run-defense snaps ended with him making a defensive stop. That was only the 33rd-best score (out of 50) among his peers.
Linebacker: Paul Posluszny
Cap difference: minus-$5.8m
A fine first season in Jacksonville gave way to a sophomore slump for Posluszny, who looked a little lost without Daryl Smith on the field next to him -- and certainly not worthy of a player commanding a $7 million cap hit. His problems were all over the field, but it was particularly disappointing to see him give up 472 yards in coverage, the fifth-most of all inside linebackers.
Cornerback: Nnamdi Asomugha
Cap difference: minus-$9.9m
Safe to say the Eagles didn't really get what they were expecting out of Asomugha. Looking a step slower, Asomugha gave up completions on 66.7 percent of balls into his coverage, with five of those being touchdowns. His 15.9 yards per reception allowed was the seventh-highest in the league as he struggled to keep up with the NFL's top receivers.
Cornerback: Corey Webster
Cap difference: minus-$8.3m
There was a time when the Giants putting Webster on an opponent's top receiver made sense. It ceased to make sense this season as Webster got beat over and over again. It became routine to watch him give up a first down, and by season's end he had given up 35 first downs and eight touchdowns. That combined number was the fifth-worst of any cornerback.
Safety: Antrel Rolle
Cap difference: minus-$8m
This was meant to be the year we saw the best of Rolle because he could focus purely on being one of the league's best safeties and no longer had to deal with slot coverage responsibilities for the Giants. It didn't work out that way, and if you're looking for a big reason why, then look no further than his play in coverage. He missed one tackle for every eight he attempted and allowed 419 yards into his primary coverage area -- the 13th-most of all safeties. He's not the worst safety in the league, but his play does not suggest he is worth his $9 million cap hit.
Safety: Ed Reed
Cap difference: minus-$6.5m
While Reed is a Ravens legend and likely headed for the Hall of Fame, one thing he isn't is someone who represented good value for the money last season. No longer the impact player he was in his prime, he missed an astonishing 15 tackles and got beat for three touchdowns. Those aren't the kinds of numbers you expect for a man carrying a $8.5 million cap hit.
Kicker: Connor Barth
Cap difference: minus-$4.5m
Barth finished the season as our second-ranked field goal kicker, but the amount of money the Buccaneers invested in him, combined with the fact he doesn't even do kickoffs, means he doesn't have good value.
Punter: Shane Lechler
Cap difference: minus-$4.9m
In a season of fine punting, Lechler finished only 14th in our rankings -- a down year by his high standards. That, coupled with his big cap hit, means the Raiders would have been wiser allocating their cap room elsewhere.
