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Trent Dilfer
for ESPN INsider
Sept. 16, 2011
Archive
If we call the current NFL a quarterback-driven league, the group of young quarterbacks coming up dictates that it'll be this way for quite a while. For me, it really starts with the under age 27 group. If you consider Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers the elite older group, you could easily point to 10 young starters in an under-27 group that will see a few members rise to the elite level. But the question I hear often isn't just about who is the best among the younger guys, it's about who could rise the highest. It's a phrase you hear a lot in baseball: Who has the highest ceiling?
So let's take a shot, but first add a little context.
As people see all this success from the younger guys, I think they need to wrap their heads around some reasons it has happened. It starts with the way the college and even high school game translates to the pro game.
• A forced hand: The college game has really forced the hand of NFL coaches. Given the variety of formations and schemes guys are working out of at the college level, coaches know that if they intend to use a quarterback early, they need to adjust the offense to what the quarterback knows best, not the other way around. That's why you're seeing more pass-first, single-back sets. You're seeing more shotguns. And while you don't see what is often called a spread at the college level, you see a lot of the routes college teams run out of the spread. Bottom line: Coaches are finding concepts quarterbacks can latch onto early.
• Atmospheric conditioning: Look at recent top picks, such as Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, Cam Newton and even Matt Ryan. They're playing under bright lights, in bigger settings and with increased media scrutiny well before the draft. I really struggled with the transition and the pressure, and so did guys such as Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf or even David Carr. But this group seems better conditioned for both the setting and the pressure. The athletes may be better, but the NFL setting doesn't awe these guys.
• Making their own calls: College quarterbacks are asked to do more at the line of scrimmage now. The last five years we've seen a big jump in football IQ among young quarterbacks who make more of their own audible calls, recognize blitz packages and adjust on the fly. I study quarterbacks from high school through 15-year NFL vets, and the requirements for the younger guys have increased, making the NFL transition easier.
Of these quarterbacks in the under-27 group with the highest ceilings, all those things are true. So let's look at each of these guys, why their ceilings are so high and the challenges each faces. (And quickly: I often refer to arm talent. It actually correlates well with baseball. In both sports we talk about arm strength, the elite fastball being akin to the ability to throw the deep ball. But arm talent is about variety. Think about Tim Lincecum, who has good velocity but doesn't need to throw 100 mph because of his changeup. Arm talent is about diversity, about having all the throws. Overall, it's the ability to change speed and trajectory as the throw dictates.)
Here's what factors in. "Ceiling" is about how far a guy can ascend. It's NOT about who is better right now. For me, it's age, arm talent, setting, presence, smarts, growth so far and the ability to learn. And remember this caveat: to me, ceiling also reflects that bigger idea of a QB's place in the game. Can he be brilliant and the right person in the right setting that can allow people to see and appreciate it? Will the team be built to his strengths? It all factors in.
1. Josh Freeman (23), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Strengths: Freeman is one of a few quarterbacks in history who made 16 starts in a season before he ever turned 23. That group includes good company, such as Manning and Drew Bledsoe. Freeman is blessed with maturity, poise and the kind of build evaluators look for, at 6-foot-6, 248 pounds. He's an athletic guy in a frame that seems to imply durability. He also has elite arm talent. He has a fastball, but can dial it down well for his age. He's far too often called a big-armed quarterback. He has a lot more, and is still growing, which is key for this exercise. Freeman's greatest skill so far is how he extends plays -- he uses his legs but keeps his head up, like a more athletic version of Roethlisberger.
Challenges: Tampa has added some good talent around Freeman, but it's yet to be seen if he'll have elite talent around him. Tampa also hasn't yet been the setting for quarterback stardom. It fights the smaller-market label, so Freeman could be very good, but could battle relevancy until they achieve big things as a franchise. He's also still just learning to get past his second read, meaning he doesn't get to his third or fourth option in his reads. That's a common theme for young quarterbacks.
2. Mark Sanchez (24), New York Jets
Strengths: Sanchez has very good, but not elite arm talent, with good ball speed, accuracy and the ability to make off-balance throws. He has plenty of athleticism and an exceptional football IQ, proven by the fact that he was able to survive starting so early after just one year of starting at USC. Where his greatest strength lies, however, is in his intangibles. Sanchez has a Jeter-esque presence, a sense of self and humor built for the scrutiny of that market. His presence is off the charts. He handles the "star" label with ease.
Challenges: You wonder if the philosophy of the Jets as a clear defense-first, run-oriented team is conducive to building stardom at the quarterback position. Sanchez will win, but in the current system, he'll always share credit. Will winning a lot of games be enough? Sanchez must also continue to improve as a game manager -- yes, my greatest strength, I know -- but when I watch reels of film on Sanchez, it's almost like he needs crisis to lock in. And people need to remember, even Brady was a true game manager during some of the most successful times for the Patriots; it wasn't until later that they truly opened up that offense and the massive numbers piled up. Lastly, Sanchez must add consistency and, like the Freeman, develop an ability to get deeper into his reads.
3. Sam Bradford (23), St. Louis Rams
Strengths: Elite, elite arm talent. Bradford is just a beautiful thrower of the football. People said that about Carson Palmer, a guy who had a huge arm but could do absolutely anything with the football. Bradford doesn't have the huge arm, but he has every throw. He makes difficult throws look easy, and his accuracy is impeccable given his age. He can also extend plays well.
Challenges: Like Freeman in Tampa, Bradford lacks the market presence, and the team is still building the talent around him. He'll also need to prove himself under pressure. Bradford is still a two-read quarterback and needs to become comfortable getting deeper into his progressions. He didn't need to at Oklahoma, and he's still developing there. Lastly, he still needs to show better pocket presence and prove he can hold up physically.
4. Matthew Stafford (23), Detroit Lions
Strengths: Elite arm talent and can extend plays well, and despite the injuries, I actually think Stafford has an ideal build. Given his youth, I think the injuries were a lot flukier than they were a signal of problems to come. Stafford is also rare for this list in that the team has built an exciting group of talent around him. That's a group that can stay together and put up the big numbers that draw attention and raise your profile.
Challenges: Stafford needs to remember not to do too much. He has serious talent around him and can make every throw, but he needs to be willing to hold those great cards time after time and realize he doesn't have to win every hand. Again, like the others, he's still mostly a two-read quarterback and needs to develop the instincts and ability to work through his progressions.
5. Matt Ryan (26), Atlanta Falcons
Strengths: In terms of arm talent, Ryan is good to very good. He can make most throws. But where he really stands out is in his football IQ. He picked up the NFL game remarkably quick and is perhaps the best in this group at getting through his reads. Part of that, of course, is experience. Atlanta has also added some nice pieces around Ryan in Roddy White and Julio Jones. The pieces on offense are there.
Challenges: I actually see a lot of Brady in Ryan, in his ability to see and read the game. Why is that a challenge? Well, I wonder if Atlanta will be willing to open up the offense in the way Indy did for Manning, New England has for Brady and Green Bay has for Rodgers. That would allow him to make calls from the line and take defenses apart with his mind and vision as much as his arm. His ceiling could grow a great deal in that environment, in my view. I also think the expectations might be too high for the Falcons, and it could diminish Ryan. They were very good last year, but won a lot of close games, and I'm not sure the defense can hold up. Again, this will affect Ryan's chance to be considered elite. It all factors in.
6. Joe Flacco (26), Baltimore Ravens
Strengths: Very good physical attributes with elite arm strength, but not arm talent. Flacco can throw the deep ball as well or better than any quarterback alive. He got good early experience and has played in a lot of big games this early in his career. He gets great coaching.
Challenges: Flacco needs to prove he can win those big games and succeed in critical moments. He has been on the losing end to the Steelers, and while off to a good start this year in that department, we know he'll be in those positions again and will need to step up when the stakes grow. Bottom line: He's a pick-and-stick passer. He sees the initial option and used his big arm to target it. He still needs to get through his progressions if he wants to have a higher ceiling.
7. Colt McCoy (25), Cleveland Browns
Strengths: McCoy has neither elite arm talent nor great arm strength, but that's part of what can make him great. I really think he can be the next Drew Brees because of his incredible leadership skills, preparation and physical toughness. As a leader, he's Tim Tebow without the cameras. McCoy extends plays, uses his legs with his eyes downfield and uses that time to get deeper into his reads than others with better physical skills. And with Mike Holmgren in charge, McCoy should have a real chance to succeed, because Holmgren has proven he can build ideal surroundings for a quarterback to thrive.
Challenges: McCoy must be able to survive the perceptions that come with a rebuilding effort. He may very well have to endure failure and keep believers in that environment. He still has a developing surrounding cast and will have to keep his poise during the growth process.
8. Chad Henne (26), Miami Dolphins
Strengths: He's very strong and has very good arm strength, if only good arm talent. The talent around him has improved, and we're seeing signs that his play will follow now that he has gotten through a tough year. The franchise seems ready to let him succeed if he can.
Challenges: Progressions are a problem for Henne. He locks in and makes his throw, even if it's into traffic. He doesn't really have a changeup and has a hard time manipulating the ball and using trajectory to fit the ball into the second level. If he struggles, will he have enough of a leash?
Too soon to tell
Cam Newton: Newton has elite arm talent, but it's simply too early to get a true sense of his ceiling. From a physical standpoint, it could make him No. 1, but how he responds to adversity will be key.
Andy Dalton: He doesn't have arm strength, but Dalton has very good arm talent. The thing I like most about him -- and raved about it at the draft, where I was a big fan of his after all the tape breakdown -- is he's a guy who was going through progressions at an NFL level two years ago at TCU. He has a great feel for that process, and it could make him very successful.
Trent Dilfer
for ESPN INsider
Sept. 16, 2011
Archive
If we call the current NFL a quarterback-driven league, the group of young quarterbacks coming up dictates that it'll be this way for quite a while. For me, it really starts with the under age 27 group. If you consider Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers the elite older group, you could easily point to 10 young starters in an under-27 group that will see a few members rise to the elite level. But the question I hear often isn't just about who is the best among the younger guys, it's about who could rise the highest. It's a phrase you hear a lot in baseball: Who has the highest ceiling?
So let's take a shot, but first add a little context.
As people see all this success from the younger guys, I think they need to wrap their heads around some reasons it has happened. It starts with the way the college and even high school game translates to the pro game.
• A forced hand: The college game has really forced the hand of NFL coaches. Given the variety of formations and schemes guys are working out of at the college level, coaches know that if they intend to use a quarterback early, they need to adjust the offense to what the quarterback knows best, not the other way around. That's why you're seeing more pass-first, single-back sets. You're seeing more shotguns. And while you don't see what is often called a spread at the college level, you see a lot of the routes college teams run out of the spread. Bottom line: Coaches are finding concepts quarterbacks can latch onto early.
• Atmospheric conditioning: Look at recent top picks, such as Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, Cam Newton and even Matt Ryan. They're playing under bright lights, in bigger settings and with increased media scrutiny well before the draft. I really struggled with the transition and the pressure, and so did guys such as Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf or even David Carr. But this group seems better conditioned for both the setting and the pressure. The athletes may be better, but the NFL setting doesn't awe these guys.
• Making their own calls: College quarterbacks are asked to do more at the line of scrimmage now. The last five years we've seen a big jump in football IQ among young quarterbacks who make more of their own audible calls, recognize blitz packages and adjust on the fly. I study quarterbacks from high school through 15-year NFL vets, and the requirements for the younger guys have increased, making the NFL transition easier.
Of these quarterbacks in the under-27 group with the highest ceilings, all those things are true. So let's look at each of these guys, why their ceilings are so high and the challenges each faces. (And quickly: I often refer to arm talent. It actually correlates well with baseball. In both sports we talk about arm strength, the elite fastball being akin to the ability to throw the deep ball. But arm talent is about variety. Think about Tim Lincecum, who has good velocity but doesn't need to throw 100 mph because of his changeup. Arm talent is about diversity, about having all the throws. Overall, it's the ability to change speed and trajectory as the throw dictates.)
Here's what factors in. "Ceiling" is about how far a guy can ascend. It's NOT about who is better right now. For me, it's age, arm talent, setting, presence, smarts, growth so far and the ability to learn. And remember this caveat: to me, ceiling also reflects that bigger idea of a QB's place in the game. Can he be brilliant and the right person in the right setting that can allow people to see and appreciate it? Will the team be built to his strengths? It all factors in.
1. Josh Freeman (23), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Strengths: Freeman is one of a few quarterbacks in history who made 16 starts in a season before he ever turned 23. That group includes good company, such as Manning and Drew Bledsoe. Freeman is blessed with maturity, poise and the kind of build evaluators look for, at 6-foot-6, 248 pounds. He's an athletic guy in a frame that seems to imply durability. He also has elite arm talent. He has a fastball, but can dial it down well for his age. He's far too often called a big-armed quarterback. He has a lot more, and is still growing, which is key for this exercise. Freeman's greatest skill so far is how he extends plays -- he uses his legs but keeps his head up, like a more athletic version of Roethlisberger.
Challenges: Tampa has added some good talent around Freeman, but it's yet to be seen if he'll have elite talent around him. Tampa also hasn't yet been the setting for quarterback stardom. It fights the smaller-market label, so Freeman could be very good, but could battle relevancy until they achieve big things as a franchise. He's also still just learning to get past his second read, meaning he doesn't get to his third or fourth option in his reads. That's a common theme for young quarterbacks.
2. Mark Sanchez (24), New York Jets
Strengths: Sanchez has very good, but not elite arm talent, with good ball speed, accuracy and the ability to make off-balance throws. He has plenty of athleticism and an exceptional football IQ, proven by the fact that he was able to survive starting so early after just one year of starting at USC. Where his greatest strength lies, however, is in his intangibles. Sanchez has a Jeter-esque presence, a sense of self and humor built for the scrutiny of that market. His presence is off the charts. He handles the "star" label with ease.
Challenges: You wonder if the philosophy of the Jets as a clear defense-first, run-oriented team is conducive to building stardom at the quarterback position. Sanchez will win, but in the current system, he'll always share credit. Will winning a lot of games be enough? Sanchez must also continue to improve as a game manager -- yes, my greatest strength, I know -- but when I watch reels of film on Sanchez, it's almost like he needs crisis to lock in. And people need to remember, even Brady was a true game manager during some of the most successful times for the Patriots; it wasn't until later that they truly opened up that offense and the massive numbers piled up. Lastly, Sanchez must add consistency and, like the Freeman, develop an ability to get deeper into his reads.
3. Sam Bradford (23), St. Louis Rams
Strengths: Elite, elite arm talent. Bradford is just a beautiful thrower of the football. People said that about Carson Palmer, a guy who had a huge arm but could do absolutely anything with the football. Bradford doesn't have the huge arm, but he has every throw. He makes difficult throws look easy, and his accuracy is impeccable given his age. He can also extend plays well.
Challenges: Like Freeman in Tampa, Bradford lacks the market presence, and the team is still building the talent around him. He'll also need to prove himself under pressure. Bradford is still a two-read quarterback and needs to become comfortable getting deeper into his progressions. He didn't need to at Oklahoma, and he's still developing there. Lastly, he still needs to show better pocket presence and prove he can hold up physically.
4. Matthew Stafford (23), Detroit Lions
Strengths: Elite arm talent and can extend plays well, and despite the injuries, I actually think Stafford has an ideal build. Given his youth, I think the injuries were a lot flukier than they were a signal of problems to come. Stafford is also rare for this list in that the team has built an exciting group of talent around him. That's a group that can stay together and put up the big numbers that draw attention and raise your profile.
Challenges: Stafford needs to remember not to do too much. He has serious talent around him and can make every throw, but he needs to be willing to hold those great cards time after time and realize he doesn't have to win every hand. Again, like the others, he's still mostly a two-read quarterback and needs to develop the instincts and ability to work through his progressions.
5. Matt Ryan (26), Atlanta Falcons
Strengths: In terms of arm talent, Ryan is good to very good. He can make most throws. But where he really stands out is in his football IQ. He picked up the NFL game remarkably quick and is perhaps the best in this group at getting through his reads. Part of that, of course, is experience. Atlanta has also added some nice pieces around Ryan in Roddy White and Julio Jones. The pieces on offense are there.
Challenges: I actually see a lot of Brady in Ryan, in his ability to see and read the game. Why is that a challenge? Well, I wonder if Atlanta will be willing to open up the offense in the way Indy did for Manning, New England has for Brady and Green Bay has for Rodgers. That would allow him to make calls from the line and take defenses apart with his mind and vision as much as his arm. His ceiling could grow a great deal in that environment, in my view. I also think the expectations might be too high for the Falcons, and it could diminish Ryan. They were very good last year, but won a lot of close games, and I'm not sure the defense can hold up. Again, this will affect Ryan's chance to be considered elite. It all factors in.
6. Joe Flacco (26), Baltimore Ravens
Strengths: Very good physical attributes with elite arm strength, but not arm talent. Flacco can throw the deep ball as well or better than any quarterback alive. He got good early experience and has played in a lot of big games this early in his career. He gets great coaching.
Challenges: Flacco needs to prove he can win those big games and succeed in critical moments. He has been on the losing end to the Steelers, and while off to a good start this year in that department, we know he'll be in those positions again and will need to step up when the stakes grow. Bottom line: He's a pick-and-stick passer. He sees the initial option and used his big arm to target it. He still needs to get through his progressions if he wants to have a higher ceiling.
7. Colt McCoy (25), Cleveland Browns
Strengths: McCoy has neither elite arm talent nor great arm strength, but that's part of what can make him great. I really think he can be the next Drew Brees because of his incredible leadership skills, preparation and physical toughness. As a leader, he's Tim Tebow without the cameras. McCoy extends plays, uses his legs with his eyes downfield and uses that time to get deeper into his reads than others with better physical skills. And with Mike Holmgren in charge, McCoy should have a real chance to succeed, because Holmgren has proven he can build ideal surroundings for a quarterback to thrive.
Challenges: McCoy must be able to survive the perceptions that come with a rebuilding effort. He may very well have to endure failure and keep believers in that environment. He still has a developing surrounding cast and will have to keep his poise during the growth process.
8. Chad Henne (26), Miami Dolphins
Strengths: He's very strong and has very good arm strength, if only good arm talent. The talent around him has improved, and we're seeing signs that his play will follow now that he has gotten through a tough year. The franchise seems ready to let him succeed if he can.
Challenges: Progressions are a problem for Henne. He locks in and makes his throw, even if it's into traffic. He doesn't really have a changeup and has a hard time manipulating the ball and using trajectory to fit the ball into the second level. If he struggles, will he have enough of a leash?
Too soon to tell
Cam Newton: Newton has elite arm talent, but it's simply too early to get a true sense of his ceiling. From a physical standpoint, it could make him No. 1, but how he responds to adversity will be key.
Andy Dalton: He doesn't have arm strength, but Dalton has very good arm talent. The thing I like most about him -- and raved about it at the draft, where I was a big fan of his after all the tape breakdown -- is he's a guy who was going through progressions at an NFL level two years ago at TCU. He has a great feel for that process, and it could make him very successful.