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http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/23066428/2018-nfl-free-agency-best-values-worst-overpays
The best NFL free-agency values, worst overpays of 2018
NFL free agency reached peak frenzy before the signing period officially opened as teams embraced the confusingly named "legal tampering" period.
Despite all the excitement, most rosters are a little worse off now than they were before. That's because many depth players remain unsigned, while many of the signings featured desperate teams overpaying to fill needs.
10 best value signings and the 10 worst overpays.
Worst overpays
1. Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
Deal: Three years, $48 million
The good news is that Watkins is young, talented and joining a team coached by Andy Reid, who excels at maximizing personnel. The bad news is that Watkins simply has not been very productive, a leading reason he is on his third team in eight months.
The Chiefs are paying Watkins as though he's a sure bet. They were not the only team willing to spend big for him. Dallas was also interested, as was Chicago. It seems like a case of teams valuing a player based more on their draft reports than what the player has done since college.
Watkins' annual average is a shade under what Mike Evans got in Tampa Bay and twice what Paul Richardsonreceived in Washington. (Watkins and Richardson have nearly identical numbers over the past two seasons, albeit in eight fewer games for Watkins.)
Watkins ranks 57th in receptions, 30th in receiving yards and 17th in receiving touchdowns since entering the league in 2014, which could indicate he simply needs more opportunities.
2. Star Lotulelei, Buffalo Bills
Deal: Five years, $50 million
The Bills are getting a run-stuffing defensive tackle who has missed only two games over five seasons, but the price seemed steep for a player with "no rush at all," in the words of one general manager. Sean McDermott coached Lotulelei in Carolina and will surely maximize him in the Buffalo defense. But is that familiarity worth $18.5 million fully guaranteed? The Panthers seemed to come out ahead by signing Dontari Poe to a shorter, cheaper deal for three years at $28 million.
3. Nate Solder, New York Giants
Deal: Four years, $62 million
The Giants were negotiating from a position of extreme desperation within a market featuring few established starting tackles. This deal reflects those realities.
"What they paid [Solder] was unbelievable," an evaluator said, "but they had to help their quarterback, and that helps him."
It would be tough to fault the Giants for overpaying a top-shelf left tackle given their issues along the offensive line. Solder has not recently been a top-shelf left tackle, however, and there is a good chance he will fail to meet unrealistic expectations after the Giants made him the highest-paid offensive lineman in the league. They'll pay $34.8 million guaranteed to Soldier over the next two years.
4. Trey Burton, Chicago Bears
Deal: Four years, $32 million
Burton comes to Chicago knowing the offensive system Matt Nagy is installing with the Bears, and if Burton becomes the next Jason Kelce as the Bears hope, then this will be money well spent. The reality for now, however, is that Chicago invested $18 million fully guaranteed in an undrafted special-teams contributor who averaged 19 offensive snaps per game last season while finishing with 23 receptions.
5. Sam Bradford, Arizona Cardinals
Deal: Two years, $40 million
Just as the Giants were desperate for tackle help, the Cardinals faced dire circumstances at quarterback. They structured their deal with Bradford to mitigate risk while giving the team an option for 2020. That was smart. Still, they are paying $15 million guaranteed for a quarterback who lasted less than six quarters last season, has a "degenerative" knee, according to Mike Zimmer, and has missed 33 of his past 64 games.
If Bradford holds up, this deal could push him past $150 million in career earnings without him ever being above average over an extended period. His 48.8 Total QBR since 2015 ranks 29th out of 36 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 snaps since then.
6. Trumaine Johnson, New York Jets
Deal: Five years, $72.5 million
Johnson commanded the largest signing bonus for a cornerback in NFL history ($20 million) as a good player with zero Pro Bowls and zero All-Pro selections through six strong seasons. This deal will pay him $34 million fully guaranteed over the next two seasons, which is $10 million more than Malcolm Butler is getting in Tennessee.
7. Anthony Hitchens, Kansas City Chiefs
Deal: Five years, $45 million
The Chiefs are paying $9 million a year for a linebacker not everyone sees as a three-down player. Two evaluators agreed that Hitchens is a good player but not a difference-maker. They thought he could struggle in coverage, while noting he would be transitioning from a 4-3 base defense in Dallas to a 3-4 base defense in Kansas City. With good linebacker depth in the draft, comparable alternatives could be available for much less money.
8. Taylor Gabriel, Chicago Bears
Deal: Four years, $26 million
The 5-foot-8, 165-pound Gabriel appears ideally suited for playing indoors on artificial surfaces. He'll do that at least four times per season when facing Detroit and Minnesota, but the conditions in Chicago could be difficult for him, particularly later in the season. That is why one evaluator predicted Gabriel's production could fall off during the more inclement months.
9. Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers
Deal: Three years, $30 million
The Packers basically swapped out the 32-year-old Jordy Nelson for the 31-year-old Graham. Nelson has an outstanding chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. Graham does not. Both players averaged an alarmingly low 9.1 yards per reception last season while failing to reach 60 catches, but Graham did it with Russell Wilson at quarterback, while Nelson was stuck with Brett Hundley for much of the season. Nelson has averaged 12.7 yards per reception and 0.9 touchdowns per game since the start of 2016 when catching passes from Rodgers. Graham has averaged 11.8 yards per reception and 0.5 touchdowns per game with Wilson over that span.
10. Jonathan Stewart, New York Giants
Deal: Two years, $6.9 million
Stewart should provide welcome leadership at running back as new general manager Dave Gettleman works to build the Giants' culture.
As for the production part? Stewart is one of 20 running backs with at least 800 carries over the past six seasons. He ranks 19th among them with a 3.92-yard average per attempt, ahead of only ex-Giant Rashad Jennings (3.86). The 31-year-old Stewart remains 19th on the list when excluding runs from inside the 5-yard line, which can suppress per-carry averages.
Best values
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Deal: Two years, $50 million
The drama wasn't so much over whether Brees would leave New Orleans for another team, it was whether Brees would maximize his leverage.
Brees could have forced his way onto the market to extract the richest possible contract from the Saints. Going that route would have made $18 million in dead money from his previous deal accelerate into the 2018 cap. The team could have been all but forced into making an over-the-top offer ahead of the deadline.
Instead, Brees signed a two-year deal with $27 million guaranteed, about the same guarantee Blake Bortles is getting on a two-year extension in Jacksonville. Brees lowered his projected cap figure by $4 million, and the Saints used the additional flexibility to bolster their defense.
Brees never became a free agent, so he would not qualify for a list limited to players who reached the market, but his deal on the eve of free agency meant everything for the Saints. New Orleans -- though less reliant on Brees thanks to a solid running game and improved defense -- might have finished last in the NFC South without No. 9.
2. Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers
Deal: One year, $5 million
Peppers is old, as in Josh McCown old (they are both 38). But Peppers has not missed a game over the past 10 seasons. He's coming off an 11-sack campaign with the Panthers and has 29 sacks over the past three years. Carolina brought him back on a one-year deal for less than what Vinny Curry is getting from Tampa Bay.
3. Sheldon Richardson, Minnesota Vikings
Deal: One year, $8 million
Richardson was not a consistently dominant force in his one season with Seattle, but he was not a disappointment, either. He seemed to be a candidate for an expensive extension through much of the 2017 season. The Vikings got him on a one-year deal that carries a lower annual average than other deals for interior defensive linemen Star Lotulelei and Dontari Poe. There is little risk for Minnesota. The Vikings are so dependent on their four-man rush that adding Richardson makes particular sense for them.
4. Bradley McDougald, Seattle Seahawks
Deal: Three years, $13.5 million
Seattle's safety needs are real with Kam Chancellor potentially finished and Earl Thomas entering the final year of his contract amid rumors about a possible trade.
McDougald was an excellent bargain signing last offseason on a one-year deal for $2 million. He started nine games for a defense that surprisingly ranked sixth in efficiency over the season's second half, when playing without multiple starters. This three-year deal gives Seattle longer-term stability at the position, with McDougald able to play either spot.
McDougald appeared primed for a big payday last offseason. Now, thanks to a cratering safety market, Seattle could wind up having him for four years and $15.5 million.
5. AJ McCarron, Buffalo Bills
Deal: Two years, $10 million
NFL teams routinely pay big money to questionable quarterbacks simply because there's scarcity at the position and a player might have upside. That did not happen here.
The 27-year-old McCarron has a 2-2 starting record (including playoffs) with five touchdowns, one interception and a middling 49.3 Total QBR. His third-down scoring pass gave Cincinnati a late lead in a playoff game against Pittsburgh, and if teammate Jeremy Hill had not lost a fumble, the narrative surrounding McCarron might have been different. Buffalo signed him for about the same as Chicago paid for Chase Daniel, plus incentives.
6. Richard Sherman, San Francisco 49ers
Deal: Three years, $27.15 million
This is a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose deal for San Francisco. The team is protected if Sherman does not regain top form following the torn Achilles tendon he suffered in November, but if Sherman does flourish, the 49ers can lock in additional years at sub-market value. That's great for the team given how much money corners command.
San Francisco is getting a player who seems supremely motivated to prove his former team, Seattle, wrong for letting him go. Sherman's practice habits and knowledge of the 49ers' scheme make him an asset to younger players on a less-established defense.
7. Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts
Deal: Two years, $13 million
The Colts are getting a reasonably productive 24-year-old who did not miss a game last season and whose contract gives them two years of control without dead-money risks beyond this season. The $6.5 million annual average for Ebron is less than the $8.5 million he earned under his fifth-year option in Detroit last season, and less than what Trey Burton is getting in Chicago.
While Ebron has not lived up to his draft status as the 10th overall pick in 2014, the perception is exaggerated by the fact that so many other first-round picks from that class became stars. That context is irrelevant to the Colts. Their investment is smaller. Their opportunity cost is nil.
Low touchdown production could be a concern, though. Ebron's 11 touchdowns through four seasons ranks eighth among nine first-round tight ends selected in the 10 drafts from 2005 to 2014. The other numbers for Ebron -- 56 games, 186 receptions, 2,070 yards, 5.1 average yards after the catch and 7.3 percent drop rate -- line up with Vernon Davis' four-year numbers with San Francisco. Davis was also seen as overdrafted before maturing into a productive player. The Colts are making a medium-sized bet that Ebron can also emerge.
8. Tyrann Mathieu, Houston Texans
Deal: One year, $7 million
Mathieu did not accept a pay cut from Arizona; he took one from Houston on a prove-it deal. There's a chance Mathieu is just a decent slot corner at this point in his career, but there's also a chance he'll take another step forward in his second season back from injury. There's some risk for Houston in that the Texans already have multiple key players coming off injuries, but the upside for Mathieu justifies the investment.
9. Mike Wallace, Philadelphia Eagles
Deal: One year, $1.9 million
The Eagles traded Torrey Smith and arguably upgraded with Wallace, who has much better production over the past two seasons and should benefit from leaving Baltimore's stagnant offense. Wallace's annual salary is less than half what Cordarrelle Patterson is earning on the deal he signed with Oakland before the Patriots acquired him.
Over the past two seasons, Wallace has seven receptions on passes traveling at least 30 yards past the line of scrimmage, which is tied for 12th in the league with Doug Baldwin and Will Fuller. It is six more than Smith and Patterson, and only one fewer than Julio Jones and A.J. Green.
10. Russell Bodine, Buffalo Bills
Deal: Two years, $5 million
Losing Eric Wood to injury retirement was tough for the Bills, but they rebounded with what could be good under-the-radar signing. Bodine has started 16 games in each of his first four seasons. He is 25 years old. And while there are certainly centers who are more talented, Buffalo is getting a young, dependable player at a position with importance that can be underrated.
The best NFL free-agency values, worst overpays of 2018
NFL free agency reached peak frenzy before the signing period officially opened as teams embraced the confusingly named "legal tampering" period.
Despite all the excitement, most rosters are a little worse off now than they were before. That's because many depth players remain unsigned, while many of the signings featured desperate teams overpaying to fill needs.
10 best value signings and the 10 worst overpays.
Worst overpays
1. Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
Deal: Three years, $48 million
The good news is that Watkins is young, talented and joining a team coached by Andy Reid, who excels at maximizing personnel. The bad news is that Watkins simply has not been very productive, a leading reason he is on his third team in eight months.
The Chiefs are paying Watkins as though he's a sure bet. They were not the only team willing to spend big for him. Dallas was also interested, as was Chicago. It seems like a case of teams valuing a player based more on their draft reports than what the player has done since college.
Watkins' annual average is a shade under what Mike Evans got in Tampa Bay and twice what Paul Richardsonreceived in Washington. (Watkins and Richardson have nearly identical numbers over the past two seasons, albeit in eight fewer games for Watkins.)
Watkins ranks 57th in receptions, 30th in receiving yards and 17th in receiving touchdowns since entering the league in 2014, which could indicate he simply needs more opportunities.
2. Star Lotulelei, Buffalo Bills
Deal: Five years, $50 million
The Bills are getting a run-stuffing defensive tackle who has missed only two games over five seasons, but the price seemed steep for a player with "no rush at all," in the words of one general manager. Sean McDermott coached Lotulelei in Carolina and will surely maximize him in the Buffalo defense. But is that familiarity worth $18.5 million fully guaranteed? The Panthers seemed to come out ahead by signing Dontari Poe to a shorter, cheaper deal for three years at $28 million.
3. Nate Solder, New York Giants
Deal: Four years, $62 million
The Giants were negotiating from a position of extreme desperation within a market featuring few established starting tackles. This deal reflects those realities.
"What they paid [Solder] was unbelievable," an evaluator said, "but they had to help their quarterback, and that helps him."
It would be tough to fault the Giants for overpaying a top-shelf left tackle given their issues along the offensive line. Solder has not recently been a top-shelf left tackle, however, and there is a good chance he will fail to meet unrealistic expectations after the Giants made him the highest-paid offensive lineman in the league. They'll pay $34.8 million guaranteed to Soldier over the next two years.
4. Trey Burton, Chicago Bears
Deal: Four years, $32 million
Burton comes to Chicago knowing the offensive system Matt Nagy is installing with the Bears, and if Burton becomes the next Jason Kelce as the Bears hope, then this will be money well spent. The reality for now, however, is that Chicago invested $18 million fully guaranteed in an undrafted special-teams contributor who averaged 19 offensive snaps per game last season while finishing with 23 receptions.
5. Sam Bradford, Arizona Cardinals
Deal: Two years, $40 million
Just as the Giants were desperate for tackle help, the Cardinals faced dire circumstances at quarterback. They structured their deal with Bradford to mitigate risk while giving the team an option for 2020. That was smart. Still, they are paying $15 million guaranteed for a quarterback who lasted less than six quarters last season, has a "degenerative" knee, according to Mike Zimmer, and has missed 33 of his past 64 games.
If Bradford holds up, this deal could push him past $150 million in career earnings without him ever being above average over an extended period. His 48.8 Total QBR since 2015 ranks 29th out of 36 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 snaps since then.
6. Trumaine Johnson, New York Jets
Deal: Five years, $72.5 million
Johnson commanded the largest signing bonus for a cornerback in NFL history ($20 million) as a good player with zero Pro Bowls and zero All-Pro selections through six strong seasons. This deal will pay him $34 million fully guaranteed over the next two seasons, which is $10 million more than Malcolm Butler is getting in Tennessee.
7. Anthony Hitchens, Kansas City Chiefs
Deal: Five years, $45 million
The Chiefs are paying $9 million a year for a linebacker not everyone sees as a three-down player. Two evaluators agreed that Hitchens is a good player but not a difference-maker. They thought he could struggle in coverage, while noting he would be transitioning from a 4-3 base defense in Dallas to a 3-4 base defense in Kansas City. With good linebacker depth in the draft, comparable alternatives could be available for much less money.
8. Taylor Gabriel, Chicago Bears
Deal: Four years, $26 million
The 5-foot-8, 165-pound Gabriel appears ideally suited for playing indoors on artificial surfaces. He'll do that at least four times per season when facing Detroit and Minnesota, but the conditions in Chicago could be difficult for him, particularly later in the season. That is why one evaluator predicted Gabriel's production could fall off during the more inclement months.
9. Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers
Deal: Three years, $30 million
The Packers basically swapped out the 32-year-old Jordy Nelson for the 31-year-old Graham. Nelson has an outstanding chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. Graham does not. Both players averaged an alarmingly low 9.1 yards per reception last season while failing to reach 60 catches, but Graham did it with Russell Wilson at quarterback, while Nelson was stuck with Brett Hundley for much of the season. Nelson has averaged 12.7 yards per reception and 0.9 touchdowns per game since the start of 2016 when catching passes from Rodgers. Graham has averaged 11.8 yards per reception and 0.5 touchdowns per game with Wilson over that span.
10. Jonathan Stewart, New York Giants
Deal: Two years, $6.9 million
Stewart should provide welcome leadership at running back as new general manager Dave Gettleman works to build the Giants' culture.
As for the production part? Stewart is one of 20 running backs with at least 800 carries over the past six seasons. He ranks 19th among them with a 3.92-yard average per attempt, ahead of only ex-Giant Rashad Jennings (3.86). The 31-year-old Stewart remains 19th on the list when excluding runs from inside the 5-yard line, which can suppress per-carry averages.
Best values
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Deal: Two years, $50 million
The drama wasn't so much over whether Brees would leave New Orleans for another team, it was whether Brees would maximize his leverage.
Brees could have forced his way onto the market to extract the richest possible contract from the Saints. Going that route would have made $18 million in dead money from his previous deal accelerate into the 2018 cap. The team could have been all but forced into making an over-the-top offer ahead of the deadline.
Instead, Brees signed a two-year deal with $27 million guaranteed, about the same guarantee Blake Bortles is getting on a two-year extension in Jacksonville. Brees lowered his projected cap figure by $4 million, and the Saints used the additional flexibility to bolster their defense.
Brees never became a free agent, so he would not qualify for a list limited to players who reached the market, but his deal on the eve of free agency meant everything for the Saints. New Orleans -- though less reliant on Brees thanks to a solid running game and improved defense -- might have finished last in the NFC South without No. 9.
2. Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers
Deal: One year, $5 million
Peppers is old, as in Josh McCown old (they are both 38). But Peppers has not missed a game over the past 10 seasons. He's coming off an 11-sack campaign with the Panthers and has 29 sacks over the past three years. Carolina brought him back on a one-year deal for less than what Vinny Curry is getting from Tampa Bay.
3. Sheldon Richardson, Minnesota Vikings
Deal: One year, $8 million
Richardson was not a consistently dominant force in his one season with Seattle, but he was not a disappointment, either. He seemed to be a candidate for an expensive extension through much of the 2017 season. The Vikings got him on a one-year deal that carries a lower annual average than other deals for interior defensive linemen Star Lotulelei and Dontari Poe. There is little risk for Minnesota. The Vikings are so dependent on their four-man rush that adding Richardson makes particular sense for them.
4. Bradley McDougald, Seattle Seahawks
Deal: Three years, $13.5 million
Seattle's safety needs are real with Kam Chancellor potentially finished and Earl Thomas entering the final year of his contract amid rumors about a possible trade.
McDougald was an excellent bargain signing last offseason on a one-year deal for $2 million. He started nine games for a defense that surprisingly ranked sixth in efficiency over the season's second half, when playing without multiple starters. This three-year deal gives Seattle longer-term stability at the position, with McDougald able to play either spot.
McDougald appeared primed for a big payday last offseason. Now, thanks to a cratering safety market, Seattle could wind up having him for four years and $15.5 million.
5. AJ McCarron, Buffalo Bills
Deal: Two years, $10 million
NFL teams routinely pay big money to questionable quarterbacks simply because there's scarcity at the position and a player might have upside. That did not happen here.
The 27-year-old McCarron has a 2-2 starting record (including playoffs) with five touchdowns, one interception and a middling 49.3 Total QBR. His third-down scoring pass gave Cincinnati a late lead in a playoff game against Pittsburgh, and if teammate Jeremy Hill had not lost a fumble, the narrative surrounding McCarron might have been different. Buffalo signed him for about the same as Chicago paid for Chase Daniel, plus incentives.
6. Richard Sherman, San Francisco 49ers
Deal: Three years, $27.15 million
This is a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose deal for San Francisco. The team is protected if Sherman does not regain top form following the torn Achilles tendon he suffered in November, but if Sherman does flourish, the 49ers can lock in additional years at sub-market value. That's great for the team given how much money corners command.
San Francisco is getting a player who seems supremely motivated to prove his former team, Seattle, wrong for letting him go. Sherman's practice habits and knowledge of the 49ers' scheme make him an asset to younger players on a less-established defense.
7. Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts
Deal: Two years, $13 million
The Colts are getting a reasonably productive 24-year-old who did not miss a game last season and whose contract gives them two years of control without dead-money risks beyond this season. The $6.5 million annual average for Ebron is less than the $8.5 million he earned under his fifth-year option in Detroit last season, and less than what Trey Burton is getting in Chicago.
While Ebron has not lived up to his draft status as the 10th overall pick in 2014, the perception is exaggerated by the fact that so many other first-round picks from that class became stars. That context is irrelevant to the Colts. Their investment is smaller. Their opportunity cost is nil.
Low touchdown production could be a concern, though. Ebron's 11 touchdowns through four seasons ranks eighth among nine first-round tight ends selected in the 10 drafts from 2005 to 2014. The other numbers for Ebron -- 56 games, 186 receptions, 2,070 yards, 5.1 average yards after the catch and 7.3 percent drop rate -- line up with Vernon Davis' four-year numbers with San Francisco. Davis was also seen as overdrafted before maturing into a productive player. The Colts are making a medium-sized bet that Ebron can also emerge.
8. Tyrann Mathieu, Houston Texans
Deal: One year, $7 million
Mathieu did not accept a pay cut from Arizona; he took one from Houston on a prove-it deal. There's a chance Mathieu is just a decent slot corner at this point in his career, but there's also a chance he'll take another step forward in his second season back from injury. There's some risk for Houston in that the Texans already have multiple key players coming off injuries, but the upside for Mathieu justifies the investment.
9. Mike Wallace, Philadelphia Eagles
Deal: One year, $1.9 million
The Eagles traded Torrey Smith and arguably upgraded with Wallace, who has much better production over the past two seasons and should benefit from leaving Baltimore's stagnant offense. Wallace's annual salary is less than half what Cordarrelle Patterson is earning on the deal he signed with Oakland before the Patriots acquired him.
Over the past two seasons, Wallace has seven receptions on passes traveling at least 30 yards past the line of scrimmage, which is tied for 12th in the league with Doug Baldwin and Will Fuller. It is six more than Smith and Patterson, and only one fewer than Julio Jones and A.J. Green.
10. Russell Bodine, Buffalo Bills
Deal: Two years, $5 million
Losing Eric Wood to injury retirement was tough for the Bills, but they rebounded with what could be good under-the-radar signing. Bodine has started 16 games in each of his first four seasons. He is 25 years old. And while there are certainly centers who are more talented, Buffalo is getting a young, dependable player at a position with importance that can be underrated.
